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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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What’s the take on Tony Blair’s comment this morning that, if we hold referendum 2, we’ll get a better deal as a continuing member of the EU (in other words, the ability to impose additional controls on immigration). Wishful thinking from yesterday’s man or a message delivered from someone with relevant contacts within the EU?

Influence, yes. Impose, no.
 
I told my English friend how brexit is unfortunate.

He tells me “ignore the negativity. You’ll see UK will be the place to be”

What exactly is the cause for some English people still thinking this way?

It won't be. The UK has not been the place to be for a while, it isn't working for many of its citizens and is actively getting worse.

Its shit.
 
Which part of Chequers never ever being acceptable to the EU don't British people understand ?

Can't believe this is still being considered as an option in the UK press.

Pro-Brexiters seem to think we can dictate everything to Europe and they don’t matter at all.

It’s delusional self-grandeur, pure and simple.

But we won the war innit?
 
Pro-Brexiters seem to think we can dictate everything to Europe and they don’t matter at all.

It’s delusional self-grandeur, pure and simple.

But we won the war innit?
You mean you won the battle, it's zee Germans that are winning the war... Or something...
 
You mean you won the battle, it's zee Germans that are winning the war... Or something...

Nah, we won in 1945 and that’s all that matters.

Oh and 1966.

The only two years that anything matters and there’ll be hell to pay if anyone forgets how proud we are of it!
 
There are interesting rumours coming out from the logistics industry that they are being made to sign NDA's before attending briefings given by government to walk them through the impact of likely scenario's of a deal or no deal brexit.

Implies that the government is terrified of the facts getting out and influencing public opinion. Wonder if there are any anti brexit logistics owners that might break ranks in a similar way to this guy did and release the full briefing info?

 
Which part of Chequers never ever being acceptable to the EU don't British people understand ?

Can't believe this is still being considered as an option in the UK press.
What I can't believe is that there are people that still actually think there is something workable called BREXIT and that it's one political party or another's incompetence (or even more incredibly an uncooperative EU) that is holding the delivery of that dream up.

BREXIT exists, it's just not quite as rosey as the voters were led to believe … and EVERYONE will be worse off if it's allowed to continue. FFS even after 2 years people haven't worked it out. They are still screaming that it would be a betrayal of democracy to do anything other than head blindly into the abyss :lol:

Flying in the face of all the information that has come to the fore since 2016 – that the public were lied to and betrayed, that the public were manipulated, and that the public voted a certain way given the "factual information" they were fed – people still seem to think that there is a workable solution for the fairy tale that is BREXIT and they lay the blame at the feet of the people who are trying to deliver the impossible, or the people who are trying to point out the impossibleness of the situation … rather than the people who lied and promised "the impossible" in the first place.
 
What I can't believe is that there are people that still actually think there is something workable called BREXIT and that it's one political party or another's incompetence (or even more incredibly an uncooperative EU) that is holding the delivery of that dream up.

BREXIT exists, it's just not quite as rosey as the voters were led to believe … and EVERYONE will be worse off if it's allowed to continue. FFS even after 2 years people haven't worked it out. They are still screaming that it would be a betrayal of democracy to do anything other than head blindly into the abyss :lol:

Flying in the face of all the information that has come to the fore since 2016 – that the public were lied to and betrayed, that the public were manipulated, and that the public voted a certain way given the "factual information" they were fed – people still seem to think that there is a workable solution for the fairy tale that is BREXIT and they lay the blame at the feet of the people who are trying to deliver the impossible, or the people who are trying to point out the impossibleness of the situation … rather than the people who lied and promised "the impossible" in the first place.

It's not impossible. It's very easy to exit. How much it'll hurt is another story
 
It's not impossible. It's very easy to exit. How much it'll hurt is another story
BREXIT exists, it's just not quite as rosey as the voters were led to believe

I said delivering the BREXIT that everyone was promised … you know, the one they voted for … THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE

Of course it's possible to "EXIT" it's right there in the name BREXIT … but if BREXITeers would have campaigned for pain and hardship, currency drops, fewer jobs and less security with no friends or hope on the horizon except Donald Trump I'm not sure the vote would have gone quite the same way.
 
I said delivering the BREXIT that everyone was promised … you know, the one they voted for … THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE

Of course it's possible to "EXIT" it's right there in the name BREXIT … but if BREXITeers would have campaigned for pain and hardship, currency drops, fewer jobs and less security with no friends or hope on the horizon except Donald Trump I'm not sure the vote would have gone quite the same way.

What did they vote for though? The talk before the election was very clear that leaving the customs union was not part of the deal.
 
Brexit explained

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What did they vote for though? The talk before the election was very clear that leaving the customs union was not part of the deal.

In my opinion … I think they definitely voted for that (the few that understood what they were even voting about did anyway). In fact, that was the whole point of the vote … to "take back control, of laws, trade and borders" and swim in the ocean of money and respect that they were promised doing so would accrue.

EDIT: If you are referring to the promises that we would "definitely" remain in the customs Union, made by the likes of Farage and Boris, these were always questioned and never substantiated other than pointing at other inferior trading partnerships. And are part of the lies and mistruths that I'm referring to when I say the public voted on false promises.

Where is the £350m a week saving? It's £500m a week extra in spending and counting
We were promised no divorce costs? It's actually c.£40bn
etc …
 
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In my opinion … I think they definitely voted for that (the few that understood what they were even voting about did anyway). In fact, that was the whole point of the vote … to "take back control, of laws, trade and borders" and swim in the ocean of money and respect that they were promised doing so would accrue.

EDIT: If you are referring to the promises that we would "definitely" remain in the customs Union, made by the likes of Farage and Boris, these were always questioned and never substantiated other than pointing at other inferior trading partnerships. And are part of the lies and mistruths that I'm referring to when I say the public voted on false promises.

Where is the £350m a week saving? It's £500m a week extra in spending and counting
We were promised no divorce costs? It's actually c.£40bn
etc …

I'm still yet to really hear any convincing argument that 'taking back control' wasn't just a dog whistle for 'kick out the foreigns'.
 
I'm still yet to really hear any convincing argument that 'taking back control' wasn't just a dog whistle for 'kick out the foreigns'.

I don't think that it's the case. It's a just a tool to convey the idea that Brussels was illegitimately leading the UK, it's more about pretending that UK leaders weren't responsible that it was the bureaucrats.
 
I don't think that it's the case. It's a just a tool to convey the idea that Brussels was illegitimately leading the UK, it's more about pretending that UK leaders weren't responsible that it was the bureaucrats.

Certainly for those in government being able to blame Brussels for their feck ups and policies is a tried and tested tactic. Invariably though when Brexiteers were pressed on what they would like to 'take control' back of the answer was immigration and the idea that it was the nebulous job stealing, benefit claiming foreigner who was to blame for them not having had a pay rise in 10 years. Those ideas may have been stoked by politicians for far longer than the run up to the referendum, but they require a receptive audience to lap them up.

It might have made good political sense for Vote Leave to prod that sore with a little bit of wink, wink, nudge nudge 'you know who is to blame for this really' talk, but whether they were doing it because they genuinely believed it or because they thought it would get people to vote for them hardly seems to matter.

And hell, vote leave have been kind enough to leave a record of their tactics up so we don't even need to guess at what they were trying to do: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/why_vote_leave.html
 
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Certainly for those in government being able to blame Brussels for their feck ups and policies is a tried and tested tactic. Invariably though when Brexiteers were pressed on what they would like to 'take control' back of the answer was immigration and the idea that it was the nebulous job stealing, benefit claiming foreigner who was to blame for them not having had a pay rise in 10 years. Those ideas may have been stoked by politicians for far longer than the run up to the referendum, but they require a receptive audience to lap them up.

It might have made good political sense for Vote Leave to prod that sore with a little bit of wink, wink, nudge nudge 'you know who is to blame for this really' talk, but whether they were doing it because they genuinely believed it or because they thought it would get people to vote for them hardly seems to matter.

The reason I tell you that is because of the double discourse with on one hand "take control of the borders" and on the other "we will give more opportunities to people from outside the EU". While the racist minority of leavers were focused on targetting southern europeans and Polish, they missed the fact that the other leavers are apparently planning the exploitation of third world countries which are made of the visible minorities that racists absolutely do not want.
That's why I don't think that from a political standpoint Leave is racist, it's made of manipulative hardcore capitalists who intend to shaft everyone when they get hold of all the power.
 
The reason I tell you that is because of the double discourse with on one hand "take control of the borders" and on the other "we will give more opportunities to people from outside the EU". While the racist minority of leavers were focused on targetting southern europeans and Polish, they missed the fact that the other leavers are apparently planning the exploitation of third world countries which are made of the visible minorities that racists absolutely do not want.
That's why I don't think that from a political standpoint Leave is racist, it's made of manipulative hardcore capitalists who intend to shaft everyone when they get hold of all the power.

It's only double discourse if you assume that they actually meant the whole world rather than 'America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the white bits of South Africa'. Accepting that argument though would mean ignoring the pictures they used of a Muslim family sneaking under some barbed wire (apparently in an attempt to get to Europe) alongside their scaremongering about Turkey and other 'poorer countries' joining the EU.

It's just another example of their paper thin defence.
 
It's only double discourse if you assume that they actually meant the whole world rather than 'America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the white bits of South Africa' which would mean ignoring the pictures they used of a Muslim family sneaking under some barbed wire (apparently in an attempt to get to Europe) alongside their scaremongering about Turkey and other 'poorer countries' joining the EU.

But that's the thing, it's not Ukip that holds power and even among Ukip it's not people with societal concerns that hold the power. Just look at leave main financers, they are all finance people they don't live with these foreigners and don't care about them, they might not like them but they will try to make money with anyone, they will always go to the option that creates the biggest margin. They only care about the money part, not the social side of things.

You have an actual example in Jim Ratcliffe who was/is a support of Brexit but moved to Monaco, Monaco is effectively an extension of France and the rules that applies there are generally negotiated with the french government who according to leavers doesn't have power and is subjected to Brussels. The man has no principles, he only cares about the tax free conditions that Monaco provides.
 
But that's the thing, it's not Ukip that holds power and even among Ukip it's not people with societal concerns that hold the power. Just look at leave main financers, they are all finance people they don't live with these foreigners and don't care about them, they might not like them but they will try to make money with anyone, they will always go to the option that creates the biggest margin. They only care about the money part, not the social side of things.

You have an actual example in Jim Ratcliffe who was/is a support of Brexit but moved to Monaco, Monaco is effectively an extension of France and the rules that applies there are generally negotiated with the french government who according to leavers doesn't have power and is subjected to Brussels. The man has no principles, he only cares about the tax free conditions that Monaco provides.

Right, but we're not talking about disaster capitalists, who think there is money to be made, but why Joe Public thought it was a good idea. And yeah UKIP the party might have disappeared (although they're bouncing back in recent polls as Little Englanders feel like they're not going to get rid of all the people they didn't want), but only because of an almost wholesale adoption of their policies by the Conservatives.
 
What I can't believe is that there are people that still actually think there is something workable called BREXIT and that it's one political party or another's incompetence (or even more incredibly an uncooperative EU) that is holding the delivery of that dream up.

BREXIT exists, it's just not quite as rosey as the voters were led to believe … and EVERYONE will be worse off if it's allowed to continue. FFS even after 2 years people haven't worked it out. They are still screaming that it would be a betrayal of democracy to do anything other than head blindly into the abyss :lol:

Flying in the face of all the information that has come to the fore since 2016 – that the public were lied to and betrayed, that the public were manipulated, and that the public voted a certain way given the "factual information" they were fed – people still seem to think that there is a workable solution for the fairy tale that is BREXIT and they lay the blame at the feet of the people who are trying to deliver the impossible, or the people who are trying to point out the impossibleness of the situation … rather than the people who lied and promised "the impossible" in the first place.

Totally agree, you ask 20 Brexiteers what they voted for and each one will come up with a different answer, they don't know what they voted for but in April they will find out and you can bet that they'll all say, that's not what I voted for.

I keep hearing, "No-one voted to be poorer" but that is precisely what they voted for, surely no-one still believes they're actually going to save any money.

A pure Brexit is impossible unless you break the GFA. It also means every single agreement is null and void. Start at square one on 30th March 2019.
 
Right, but we're not talking about disaster capitalists, who think there is money to be made, but why Joe Public thought it was a good idea. And yeah UKIP the party might have disappeared (although they're bouncing back in recent polls as Little Englanders feel like they're not going to get rid of all the people they didn't want), but only because of an almost wholesale adoption of their policies by the Conservatives.

If you are only taking about the public then you are right. I though that you were talking about the message in itself.
 
Pro-Brexiters seem to think we can dictate everything to Europe and they don’t matter at all.

It’s delusional self-grandeur, pure and simple.

But we won the war innit?

What they don't understand is how the EU works and that the EU will never change its rules. I include the government in this as well. Furthermore the government didn't want the UK public to know how the EU works because it was a convenient scapegoat.
 
If you are only taking about the public then you are right. I though that you were talking about the message in itself.

Well yes, the message given to the public. I don't think anyone is disputing that there was a group of rich Brexit backers who supported it because they could make a buck, but they're a vanishingly small portion of the total number of Brexit votes and even if you argue their money was the driving force they still wouldn't have gotten anywhere without having a public receptive to the idea of booting out foreigners.
 
In Barnier's speech yesterday he said "The UK wants to and will leave the Single Market and the Customs Union."

Norway does not solve the border problem or customs checks, not only in Ireland but elsewhere as well.
If the UK aren't leaving the CU nor the SM they may as well stay in the EU, that's the best deal they'll get.

I have the opposite view, I think the EU have given up trying to get a coherent position from the UK and just concentrating on making the UK take responsibility for resolving the problem of the border in Ireland.
I also think the EU doesn't want a UK change of government at the last minute so not making life too unpleasant for May.
I agree with some of that.

We are not going to make a silk purse out of a pigs ear. Staying in would be my choice but I fear it will spark civil unrest. We need to get the best deal that we can in the interest of the UK and not any individual, group of individuals or political party.

As it stands I think a Canada +++ could become workable as long as it was comprehensive, lined up regulation closely and took complete account of services. Business would at least get less anxious. There would still be the Irish border but I don't think that is totally unsolvable.

Whatever, Farage and his friends in the ERG need to shut the feck up. They have what they want. If you'd offered them leaving the EU and SM but retaining 'a' customs union three years ago they'd have bitten your hand off. The question on the ballot paper had none of these issue. It just asked whether the UK should stay or leave the EU.

If Farage and co page Wikipedia for a list of EU nations on the 28th March 2019 the UK will be on it. I they do the same on the 30th of March the UK will not be on the list and nor will it be on the list of EEA nations.

Democracy satisfied as far as I'm concerned.
 
I agree with some of that.

We are not going to make a silk purse out of a pigs ear. Staying in would be my choice but I fear it will spark civil unrest. We need to get the best deal that we can in the interest of the UK and not any individual, group of individuals or political party.

As it stands I think a Canada +++ could become workable as long as it was comprehensive, lined up regulation closely and took complete account of services. Business would at least get less anxious. There would still be the Irish border but I don't think that is totally unsolvable.

Whatever, Farage and his friends in the ERG need to shut the feck up. They have what they want. If you'd offered them leaving the EU and SM but retaining 'a' customs union three years ago they'd have bitten your hand off. The question on the ballot paper had none of these issue. It just asked whether the UK should stay or leave the EU.

If Farage and co page Wikipedia for a list of EU nations on the 28th March 2019 the UK will be on it. I they do the same on the 30th of March the UK will not be on the list and nor will it be on the list of EEA nations.

Democracy satisfied as far as I'm concerned.

I don't think they can now stay in. With regard civil unrest, it is possible that whatever happens in March there will be a large section of the population that will be extremely unhappy. I believe the worst is still to come.

There has been a lot of uncertainty since June 2016 but both sides have hoped that come March things will be more as they had wanted. A lot of people , maybe everyone, will not get what they hoped for. This could spark a lot of resentment on all sides and people realise that leaving the EU did not solve their problem at all but actually made their lot considerably worse.

What should happen is in the best interest of the UK and not what Johnson, Mogg and co want.
Imo I think a Canada type deal will be a disaster. It's OK for to have such a deal with a distant country but working closely with the EU and the proximity of the EU which the UK will still need to continue requires being in the CU and SM.

Still think the UK is sleepwalking to a catastrophe, how big is the question.

If democracy is letting people decide something they clearly know very little about, there is something seriously wrong.
 
Totally agree, you ask 20 Brexiteers what they voted for and each one will come up with a different answer

Ask 20 remainers why the voted tory twice in a short period of time time and I'm sure you'll get 20 different answers. Non of them will make sense either.
 
There's now a risk there'll be no Netflix or Spotify for ye post-brexit.

Imagine if the Caf got blocked too...
That’s only for Brits travelling in the EU. Everyone will still be able to use both if they’re in the UK.
 
Corbyn in No. 10 would totally eclipse any disaster that Brexit brings.

I am not a big fan of comrade myself but could he be that worse off an alternative to the grandpa's party. I mean, we're talking of a party who placed someone who had absolutely no idea of how the EU works as Brexit minister, 2 guys who have no idea in the art of diplomacy (Hunt and Boris) as foreign secretary and the Maybot as PM. A party which promised a referendum because they thought it could be easily won only to lose it. Then they triggered an early election thinking that they could easily win and ended up in bed with the DUP instead. They thought a deal with the EU would be easy peasy as the EU needed the UK more then the UK needed the EU and got thrashed again. Then they moved to hard brexit despite stating that only a madman would leave the single market. Then it took almost a year and a half to come out with their proposal to the EU, which was shot down immediately and yet they still insist on it.

Jeremy may still be stuck to the 70s which in normal terms is obsolete. There again he's quite advanced when you compare him to the likes of Rees Mogg who seems stuck to the 19th century. Also if you take antisemitism at a side (xenophobia is mainstream in today's UK politics) his heart seems to be in the right place. Sure he's a Brexiter but at least he wants to protect jobs.
 
My mother in law told me that one of the motorways near them in Kent has been closing 1 day a week to practice turning it into a parking space for lorries that may not be able to head to Europe (or indeed return to Europe) after a hard brexit

Sounding apocalyptic
 
My mother in law told me that one of the motorways near them in Kent has been closing 1 day a week to practice turning it into a parking space for lorries that may not be able to head to Europe (or indeed return to Europe) after a hard brexit

Sounding apocalyptic
It's bridge maintenance that they are rolling along that whole stretch of the M20. It is however around the same section from the M25 to the West Mailing turn off that they are rumoured to be planning to close and use as an overflow lorry park and customs clearance area to alleviate the pressure on Dover and the Channel tunnel if we do exit the CU.