Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
lem8sh said:
It's the 62% for leave that amazed me, they must all be uneducated on the subject considering the funding they have received.
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The more I think about the article, the more I think it is beneath the Guardian. Yeah the kid is dumb, but it's demonising the poor as stupid. Massively mixed messages.
 
38% of scots voted for Leave. Assuming 3% are total nut jobs that want out of both UK and EU. there is still 35% who will vote to stay in UK. I think stonger together camp will find another 15% to call sturgeon's bluff.
 
Red Dreams said:
true. think if people who wanted to remain had all come out to vote, this would simply have been a non issue. Problem is of course that emotion always drives people to the polls.
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I don't know, turnout was really high by the standards of recent elections. I think the referendum probably did accurately capture the split in the country, give or take.
 
Tim Farron: Lib Dems will stand on a platform at next General Election to ensure UK is in EU

I'm voting for them. I have nothing to lose.
 
Tim Shipman (Sunday Times Political Editor): A member of Cameron's team: "There is a special place in hell reserved for Boris. He and Gove have basically engineered a right-wing coup."
 
Guardian Comment: If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost
Not sure if it's been posted yet but came across this really interesting comment on the Guardian which is starting to go viral. It claims we won't trigger article 50... really makes you think.

Guardian Comment said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.
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Jippy said:
The more I think about the article, the more I think it is beneath the Guardian. Yeah the kid is dumb, but it's demonising the poor as stupid. Massively mixed messages.
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Sometimes you have to show the stupidity to get over the disbelief. In London we're in a bubble - there has been a bit of a backlash against the rest of the country which I would say that I am a part of. To understand the concerns you may have to understand the stupidity.
 
AshfordLad said:
38% of scots voted for Leave. Assuming 3% are total nut jobs that want out of both UK and EU. there is still 35% who will vote to stay in UK. I think stonger together camp will find another 15% to call sturgeon's bluff.
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Turnout was 67% in Scotland in this and it was 85% in the indyref. Some of the 38% will have voted Leave in the knowledge that leaving the EU would have strengthened calls for Scottish independence anyway and the SNP received 46% of the vote in the Scottish Parliament election.

Polling for independence in Scotland has been fluctuating at around 50/50 since the election, given the events of this week I'd be amazed if it wasn't at about 60/40 to leave.

The only thing Better Together 2 can pin their hopes on is experts predictions about the economy being wrong and Scotland unable to guarantee EU membership. If theres any sense Scotland will be better off in the EU on its own than out of it with the UK the Union is over.
 
From the guardians comments section:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.
 
AshfordLad said:
38% of scots voted for Leave. Assuming 3% are total nut jobs that want out of both UK and EU. there is still 35% who will vote to stay in UK. I think stonger together camp will find another 15% to call sturgeon's bluff.
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Not to mention the prospect of having to adopt the Euro. The Scots would cave in.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Turnout was 67% in Scotland in this and it was 85% in the indyref. Some of the 38% will have voted Leave in the knowledge that leaving the EU would have strengthened calls for Scottish independence anyway and the SNP received 46% of the vote in the Scottish Parliament election.

Polling for independence in Scotland has been fluctuating at around 50/50 since the election, given the events of this week I'd be amazed if it wasn't at about 60/40 to leave.

The only thing Better Together 2 can pin their hopes on is experts predictions about the economy being wrong and Scotland unable to guarantee EU membership. If theres any sense Scotland will be better off in the EU on its own than out of it with the UK the Union is over.
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Interesting point about the voter turnout and those voting leave eu to get a referendum. Also I ignored that 16-18 yos were not eligible to vote for EU but they will vote in scottish one.

Regarding membership of EU, even earlier the opposition was never from the rest of the UK but it was from Spain and Belgium so thats still an issue.
 
Jippy said:
The more I think about the article, the more I think it is beneath the Guardian. Yeah the kid is dumb, but it's demonising the poor as stupid. Massively mixed messages.
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I see your point mate, I really do, and yeah, it could have been reported differently. But I think it's incredibly important to point out that somewhere that was completely rundown and broke and that has been so heavily invested in and rebuilt, still voted hugely in favour of leaving the EU. It's a crying shame, and the remain camp have a feck load to answer for. I feel their arrogance in thinking the UK would never vote out was hugely misguided and poorly judged. That article should have been written BEFORE the referendum. It should have been on TV. Before and after pictures of that town and facts and stats about jobs and businesses coming to the area. Unfortunately though, fear, hate and ignorance won the day.



ZupZup said:
Not sure if it's been posted yet but came across this really interesting comment on the Guardian which is starting to go viral. It claims we won't trigger article 50... really makes you think.
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That is absolutely bang on. I was discussing this with my dad earlier and we agreed pretty much the same, although I think that is missing yet another vital point.

Basically Article 50 has to be voted on in Parliament. I don't think it can just be invoked, I'm sure it has to be a majority vote by MP's and the SNP will never back it, neither will most of Labour or the Libs or a fair few Conservatives too. But even if I'm wrong about that, as the article says it would be political suicide to do it and political suicide as a Tory to not do it. And with it taking 2 years to leave, and with the Tories holding such a flimsy majority, Labour could easily run a campaign on keeping us in the EU. For the Tories, that might be their best answer as it would provide them a get out of jail free card.
 
AshfordLad said:
Interesting point about the voter turnout and those voting leave eu to get a referendum. Also I ignored that 16-18 yos were not eligible to vote for EU but they will vote in scottish one.

Regarding membership of EU, even earlier the opposition was never from the rest of the UK but it was from Spain and Belgium so thats still an issue.
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The main barrier as @vidic blood & sand is right, will be the adoption of the Euro. Course our currency and economy may be flagging as well but I can't see Scotland wanting to leave the pound for the euro.

I'd still expect independence to happen for Scotland.
 
I think the people who led the Leave campaign never imagined they would win.
 
Osbourne probably needs to commit political suicide to stop this. Horrific budget proposed immediately, plunge the country into recession quicker than it'll happen naturally and let the opposition argue there's only one way out of it.
 
Adisa said:
I think the people who led the Leave campaign never imagined they would win.
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Becoming clear as we go.

I honestly think they're panicking a bit now. Half the country is pissed off, majorly. They know everything that happens now is under more scrutiny than anything in British politics before.

Cameron will suffer in history for this but he has done probably the best damage control possible by rejecting the notion of staying on. Let the other fools take the shit for the bumbling discourse that's about to happen with the EU.
 
AshfordLad said:
Interesting point about the voter turnout and those voting leave eu to get a referendum. Also I ignored that 16-18 yos were not eligible to vote for EU but they will vote in scottish one.

Regarding membership of EU, even earlier the opposition was never from the rest of the UK but it was from Spain and Belgium so thats still an issue.
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Spain's opposition was because of the potential for an independent Catalonia and the wish to deny them the opportunity to join the EU. Belgium's similar.

The principal was to attempt to show that they would not grant access to a state that had succeeded from an EU member state. As Scotland wouldn't be succeeding from a member state it somewhat mitigates those fears.

I'd also be surprised if Scotland wasn't fast tracked membership, possibly under the Article 50 negotiations if it votes to leave the UK. Scotland is already in compliance with all EU laws, has its own government in waiting, and could become an effective way for the EU to 'punish' the UK without being seen to actually do so.
 
langster said:
That is absolutely bang on. I was discussing this with my dad earlier and we agreed pretty much the same, although I think that is missing yet another vital point.

Basically Article 50 has to be voted on in Parliament. I don't think it can just be invoked, I'm sure it has to be a majority vote by MP's and the SNP will never back it, neither will most of Labour or the Libs or a fair few Conservatives too. But even if I'm wrong about that, as the article says it would be political suicide to do it and political suicide as a Tory to not do it. And with it taking 2 years to leave, and with the Tories holding such a flimsy majority, Labour could easily run a campaign on keeping us in the EU. For the Tories, that might be their best answer as it would provide them a get out of jail free card.
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I think they will have to vote for it to be invoked as they will be out of jobs by the next general election otherwise, I don't think the MP's who wanted us to remain would further risk disillusioning people who wanted to leave, or the next protest vote could be for UKIP. It's a slippery slope when you go against the what a democracy has voted for no matter how fine the margin was and how wrong you think the decision was.
 
Silva said:
Osbourne probably needs to commit political suicide to stop this. Horrific budget proposed immediately, plunge the country into recession quicker than it'll happen naturally and let the opposition argue there's only one way out of it.
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It's possible there will be a feck load of political manoeuvring and "behind the scenes deals under the table" for it to be announced that we get a better deal with the EU because they didn't want us to leave. And then all of a sudden we don't leave. As I said, and that article said, the referendum isn't a binding legal contract. People just voted on a piece of paper, and there is no way the MP's will vote to take us out of Europe or trigger article 50.

shabz said:
I think they will have to vote for it to be invoked as they will be out of jobs by the next general election otherwise, I don't think the MP's who wanted us to remain would further risk disillusioning people who wanted to leave, or the next protest vote could be for UKIP. It's a slippery slope when you go against the what a democracy has voted for no matter how fine the margin was and how wrong you think the decision was.
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But they will have to have a majority and MP's who want to stay wont vote to leave. The SNP won't vote for it because they don't want it. That article in the Guardian is spot on, by leaving, David Cameron has fecked BJ, Gove and co. And Labour can easily run a campaign on keeping us in Europe. It's not as simple as it seems and I bet there's a shitload of people bricking it behind the scenes at the moment. The issue is far from done just yet.
 
langster said:
It's possible there will be a feck load of political manoeuvring and "behind the scenes deals under the table" for it to be announced that we get a better deal with the EU because they didn't want us to leave. And then all of a sudden we don't leave. As I said, and that article said, the referendum isn't a binding legal contract. People just voted on a piece of paper, and there is no way the MP's will vote to take us out of Europe or trigger article 50.
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That's never going to happen. It's better for the EU if we feck off than giving us special treatment and setting a precedent.
 
Silva said:
That's never going to happen. It's better for the EU if we feck off than giving us special treatment and setting a precedent.
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Of course they wont give us special treatment, but the public could easily be told they had been offered and were getting better deals. There's no way we are fecking off quickly. Cameron has clearly said he wont trigger Article 50, it's up to the next guy. Scotland putting pressure on already, Northern Ireland too, it's a clusterfeck of all proportions. Boris is a moron, but he's not stupid enough to bring forth the guillotine on himself.
 
rpitroda, British born with Indian ethnicity, states he feels not welcome in the UK anymore
Posted in the other thread but relevant here too:

I'm going to speak what's on my heart and mind right now - it is probably overly dramatic and I'm sure plenty will raise eyebrows but I can't help how I feel.

Firstly, I'm British. I was born here. But my ethnic origin is Indian. Maybe I'm in a very small minority, but for the first time in my life I genuinely feel hesitant, for use of a better word, that I'm not welcome here. I know that's a massive overreaction and probably not true, but believe me I've thought on it and tried to shake it, but for the first time I have a voice in the back of my head that is telling me, making me doubt for the first time, whether i belong here. I look at people when I board the train and wonder what they're thinking. I walk the streets and I wonder if anyone's thought in their mind, "I wish he wasn't here".

Secondly, I'm openly a labour voter normally. I very much believe that if I'm wealthy, and I earn well, then a fair share of my wealth should be taken to help the poorer less well off. That's not to say I enjoy paying taxes, who does? But I'm comfortable and morally happy in feeling I should do my bit. That's changed. Some voters voted leave because they have read the facts and made up their mind. No problem. Some voted leave because of personal experience which has affected them and their view. No problem. But some voted as a feck you to establishment. Some voted because they look at the glamour and wealth of London (where I work) with disgust and jealousy. Some voted because they just wanted to kick those who work hard and pay their fair share in the teeth. This has changed my view. Londons wealth is what drives everyone else's economies. I'm the first to know and admit that the wealth London generates isn't distributed fairly, let's say, over the country. And I know that many decisions are with London in mind at the neglect of the rest of the country. Yet, these voters seem to forget that if they hit London, they only will get hit about 50x as hard. Yet just to put their ego on top, they wanted it. They did it. And now, I think, feck this shit tax that I pay to help some of these people, however small a portion gets to them. If they want to give us the finger, perhaps it's time I did too.

Finally, putting aside the economics of it all, it deeply upsets me that the people whom I live near, share the same town, county, and country with, have become so insular. So inward looking. So nationalist. I believe in embracing cultures, embracing people, embracing the world. Working together trying to make it a better place in all that. It feels like we have turned our back on these principles that I believe in so deeply.

Bottom line, there is a huge divide. And frankly when I think of those people from Sunderland who are poor and don't get much support or jobs, I think feck you too. Go and rot.

I hate I feel that way. But sadly, I do. I think that if Boris does come in, and god knows I would hate it, I think of these people who voted in this way with a smirk knowing that they will get absolutely screwed over by this.

I genuinely think the divide between London especially and some other parts of the U.K. is simply too big to fix. The gulf in fundamental beliefs is so significant that it's almost like it's not the same country. In fact I would go as far as saying it's more different than some whole countries are from one another.

It's significant. And something has to happen. It might not be now, but one day it'll be enough is enough and we will have a real issue.

One day on, I thought I'd have calmed a bit. But I haven't. I still feel insecure in my "wantedness" here. I still think so badly of those wankers who voted leave for the wrong reasons. And I can't stand the idea of someone voting leave.

We could be in a world where Trump and BoJo are leaders of two great countries. What a shame that'd be, and how scary, too.
 
langster said:
I see your point mate, I really do, and yeah, it could have been reported differently. But I think it's incredibly important to point out that somewhere that was completely rundown and broke and that has been so heavily invested in and rebuilt, still voted hugely in favour of leaving the EU. It's a crying shame, and the remain camp have a feck load to answer for. I feel their arrogance in thinking the UK would never vote out was hugely misguided and poorly judged. That article should have been written BEFORE the referendum. It should have been on TV. Before and after pictures of that town and facts and stats about jobs and businesses coming to the area. Unfortunately though, fear, hate and ignorance won the day.





That is absolutely bang on. I was discussing this with my dad earlier and we agreed pretty much the same, although I think that is missing yet another vital point.

Basically Article 50 has to be voted on in Parliament. I don't think it can just be invoked, I'm sure it has to be a majority vote by MP's and the SNP will never back it, neither will most of Labour or the Libs or a fair few Conservatives too. But even if I'm wrong about that, as the article says it would be political suicide to do it and political suicide as a Tory to not do it. And with it taking 2 years to leave, and with the Tories holding such a flimsy majority, Labour could easily run a campaign on keeping us in the EU. For the Tories, that might be their best answer as it would provide them a get out of jail free card.
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Jeremy Corbyn will never run a campaign on remaining in the EU, the hippy probably uncorked a champagne himself after seeing the result.
 
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