Doesn't appear to be gloating to me, and any figures obviously cannot include what happens when Scotland goes independent and the investment banks move out of London.
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Doesn't appear to be gloating to me, and any figures obviously cannot include what happens when Scotland goes independent and the investment banks move out of London.
I'm not sure I can correct you because I'm not sure what you mean by 'worst case scenario', I don't think you mean the literal 'worst case scenario' because its much, much worse than that.
There are figures estimating the economic effect of us ending up on WTO terms i.e. the worst that the EU can offer us.
@Regulus Arcturus Black
It accounts for the EU basically telling us to do one and make trading with them as unattractive as possible. I heard an Danish MEP on BBC radio that they would not support punitive actions against the UK for a start.
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I doubt that you can make reliable predictions about a potential worst case scenario, especially not a single journalist.
Yes, but I don't think they're estimating the 'worst case scenario' but what is likely to happen. I'm happy to be proved wrong. But I don't think there's a world where Scotland becomes independent; we don't get any sort of financial service sector based in the City of London move to be inside the EU still; manufacturing jobs relocate or disappear entirely; we lose EU investment, and the sluggish - possibly recessed - economy can't or won't replace it.
I'm not sure how likely it is for all of that to happen. But if they do, then I can't see England - and it will be England - being the 6th largest economy in the world, or with unemployment better than most EU countries. The worst case scenario is horrific.
That's got to be a joke. I'm not even British so I wasn't invested into this until a couple of days ago but I've read what feels like 1000 reasons to remain and approximately 0 good ones to leave.
remain (not economically damaging, the body that was installed to keep the peaceful relations up in Europe for decades will stay intact, Europe won't think the UK has turned mad, young generations will get to choose to move to other EU countries and see more of the world):
- Scotland, N Ireland, Wales profit a lot from being in the EU (England too obviously)
- the working class profits from being in the EU as international companies have chosen the UK as the place to have their EU headquarters/factories (if the UK leaves the EU those companies will probably move to another place inside the EU for trading/tax/monetary reasons etc)
- London has become the EU's financial capital...London's banks and stock market are built to be the EU capital -> take that away and those sectors will most likely move to other countries as well
- skilled labor has come in from other EU countries to do good work in the UK which in return helps the UK's economy
- leaving does NOT stop immigration
- the EU does NOT tell the UK that they have to take in people from Arab/Persian/Eastern countries (which shouldn't be a problem but for the marginally xenophobic fearful public it apparently is... even then the EU isn't imposing any numbers, Poland for example hasn't taken in ANY muslim refugees because they simply said they won't)
- value of the pound is high due to economy being good
- UK's say in European issues is strong, UK can heavily influence the European politics themselves
- the UK already have their special treatment in regards to EU membership in comparison to the other members...they already have a "good deal"
- UK stays one of the most respected and most powerful European countries/economies that is viewed in a pretty positive light by the rest of Europe
- statement against all the hateful parties rising up in the European countries atm
- staying in EU's free trade zone
leave (nationalist feelings win (is that considered good again?), UK sticks metaphorical middle finger up Europe's arse, economically damaging, pound drops to new low, body of peace in Europe might face break up, bunch of far right parties around Europe get further propaganda, UK reputation has sunk drastically, UK might lose Scotland N Ireland and Gibraltar, young people's decision for their futures screwed over by old people's votes):
- pound drops to a horribly low level
- ftse index drops to a horribly low level
- pensions drop to a horribly low level
- if you were saving for a house or something you just got absolutely fecked
- world market takes a huge hit
- travelling abroad has become about 10% more expensive within hours
- youth wanted something for their future but the elderly generation screwed them over
- people divided over "stupidity" of their nation for voting without actually being interested in hearing the consequences first (sick of experts mentality)
- leave campaigners say their promises won't actually happen the way they promised them
- immigration likely to not stop
- 350 million thing was a lie
- hate, fear, us-vs-them mentality wins over tolerance and a united Europe
- far right movements get bigger and bigger in the UK and across Europe
- European body of peace is put into immense trouble and might get more problems in the future
- economy is basically fecked for the next at least 2 years
- international companies would want to move their EU headquarters and factories back on actual EU territory as soon as article 50 is activated
-> working class (who voted leave) fecked if companies move
- banks might move from London to Frankfurt
- UK's export will suddenly be a lot less profitable due to having moved out of EU's free trade zone for no real reason but EU countries making up around 46% of UK's export partners
- EU can't possible give the UK the best deal now as that'll only mean more countries will want to leave
- After showing the EU and its countries the metaphorical middle finger the UK has already started to give the EU more worries by saying it won't activate article 50 until in 4 months...that'll mean uncertain markets not only for the UK but also for the EU...kind of a dick move?
- Boris Johnson to become the new PM??
- Cameron resigned within hours
- Scotland wants to leave the UK
- N Ireland unsure what they want to do as they also voted remain
- Wales doesn't want to leave the UK but they're economically fecked
- Spain already made a move towards getting Gibraltar from the UK
- nationalist feelings made people vote leave but instead of strengthening the United Kingdom under right wing aspects, UK is quickly becoming the Disunited Kingdom
- rest of Europe now looking at UK like "wtf, they didn't seriously do that? Why would they do that? Idiots... *Facepalm*"
- Frankfurt, Dublin, Paris to be the new financial capitals of Europe?
- UK has their "independence" now
- if UK wants to enter EU market they still have to abide to most of EU law but now they don't have ANY say in future EU policies
- Trump congratulates you (he would've voted leave...that alone should've told people to vote remain)
This is just a quick list and I'm sure I forgot LOTS of points.
But to me, as a European, I see no reason why the UK should've left the EU.
I voted to remain, my point is that the remain campaign was all about scaremongering and not based on positives, thanks for the slab of text though.
You have highlighted some positives such as Scotland leaving the UK though, every cloud and all that.
No, where did I ask that?
@NinjaFletch
The estimates are made by the UK Government if we end up on WTO terms which is basically having no trade deal with the EU. It is pretty much worst case scenario regarding what the EU can do to us. The EU have to find the right balance by making us look worse off and by not appearing to be bullies so I highly doubt that will happen.
Interesting. Puts a different light on EU leaders joining the calls for Article 50 to be enacted doesn't it.
BBC: Nicola Sturgeon says MSPs at Holyrood could veto Brexit
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36633244
Scotland to block UK leaving?
Scotland to block UK leaving?
They didn't word it as worst case, they called it "likely" and "not including the risks presented by emergency spending cuts, or the "tipping points" presented by the crystallisation of financial stability risks.", so the actual worst case of that option is probably a lot more severe. And again this whole divorce will be a huge clusterfeck of unprecedented proportions, so I doubt that accurate predictions can be made either way.
Also it wouldn't just end at 800k out of a job. Those people would turn from contributing to the budget to taking money out of it, which would mean the goverment has to lower its spending or increase taxes which then would mean that consumption goes down which then affects other jobs and so on.
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http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/...-futuristic-metropolis-by-2018-20160625109816
This made me laugh out loud.
This made me laugh out loud.
A Lib Dem leader pledging something that the youngest voters are behind before an election. This seems awfully familiar somehow.
Hearing more & more reports of people from ethnic backgrounds being shouted at on the streets with comments like "you're next".
If Corbyn somehow keeps the leadership I could see a centrist labour liberal green snp coalition backing a unified stance on that
If course the predictions can't be accurate and you are right that other factor would affect those figures. But I highly doubt the EU will be as punitive as that anyway.
Prepare for the biggest game of Blink in history.
Scary. Seems that you guys have to fight to get your country back from stupidity . Fight facism everywhere you see it. Kein Fußbreit den Faschisten!
Pft, you forgot Take Back Control.That's got to be a joke. I'm not even British so I wasn't invested into this until a couple of days ago but I've read what feels like 1000 reasons to remain and approximately 0 good ones to leave.
remain (not economically damaging, the body that was installed to keep the peaceful relations up in Europe for decades will stay intact, Europe won't think the UK has turned mad, young generations will get to choose to move to other EU countries and see more of the world):
- Scotland, N Ireland, Wales profit a lot from being in the EU (England too obviously)
- the working class profits from being in the EU as international companies have chosen the UK as the place to have their EU headquarters/factories (if the UK leaves the EU those companies will probably move to another place inside the EU for trading/tax/monetary reasons etc)
- London has become the EU's financial capital...London's banks and stock market are built to be the EU capital -> take that away and those sectors will most likely move to other countries as well
- skilled labor has come in from other EU countries to do good work in the UK which in return helps the UK's economy
- leaving does NOT stop immigration
- the EU does NOT tell the UK that they have to take in people from Arab/Persian/Eastern countries (which shouldn't be a problem but for the marginally xenophobic fearful public it apparently is... even then the EU isn't imposing any numbers, Poland for example hasn't taken in ANY muslim refugees because they simply said they won't)
- value of the pound is high due to economy being good
- UK's say in European issues is strong, UK can heavily influence the European politics themselves
- the UK already have their special treatment in regards to EU membership in comparison to the other members...they already have a "good deal"
- UK stays one of the most respected and most powerful European countries/economies that is viewed in a pretty positive light by the rest of Europe
- statement against all the hateful parties rising up in the European countries atm
- staying in EU's free trade zone
leave (nationalist feelings win (is that considered good again?), UK sticks metaphorical middle finger up Europe's arse, economically damaging, pound drops to new low, body of peace in Europe might face break up, bunch of far right parties around Europe get further propaganda, UK reputation has sunk drastically, UK might lose Scotland N Ireland and Gibraltar, young people's decision for their futures screwed over by old people's votes):
- pound drops to a horribly low level
- ftse index drops to a horribly low level
- pensions drop to a horribly low level
- if you were saving for a house or something you just got absolutely fecked
- world market takes a huge hit
- travelling abroad has become about 10% more expensive within hours
- youth wanted something for their future but the elderly generation screwed them over
- people divided over "stupidity" of their nation for voting without actually being interested in hearing the consequences first (sick of experts mentality)
- leave campaigners say their promises won't actually happen the way they promised them
- immigration likely to not stop
- 350 million thing was a lie
- hate, fear, us-vs-them mentality wins over tolerance and a united Europe
- far right movements get bigger and bigger in the UK and across Europe
- European body of peace is put into immense trouble and might get more problems in the future
- economy is basically fecked for the next at least 2 years
- international companies would want to move their EU headquarters and factories back on actual EU territory as soon as article 50 is activated
-> working class (who voted leave) fecked if companies move
- banks might move from London to Frankfurt
- UK's export will suddenly be a lot less profitable due to having moved out of EU's free trade zone for no real reason but EU countries making up around 46% of UK's export partners
- EU can't possible give the UK the best deal now as that'll only mean more countries will want to leave
- After showing the EU and its countries the metaphorical middle finger the UK has already started to give the EU more worries by saying it won't activate article 50 until in 4 months...that'll mean uncertain markets not only for the UK but also for the EU...kind of a dick move?
- Boris Johnson to become the new PM??
- Cameron resigned within hours
- Scotland wants to leave the UK
- N Ireland unsure what they want to do as they also voted remain
- Wales doesn't want to leave the UK but they're economically fecked
- Spain already made a move towards getting Gibraltar from the UK
- nationalist feelings made people vote leave but instead of strengthening the United Kingdom under right wing aspects, UK is quickly becoming the Disunited Kingdom
- rest of Europe now looking at UK like "wtf, they didn't seriously do that? Why would they do that? Idiots... *Facepalm*"
- Frankfurt, Dublin, Paris to be the new financial capitals of Europe?
- UK has their "independence" now
- if UK wants to enter EU market they still have to abide to most of EU law but now they don't have ANY say in future EU policies
- Trump congratulates you (he would've voted leave...that alone should've told people to vote remain)
This is just a quick list and I'm sure I forgot LOTS of points.
But to me, as a European, I see no reason why the UK should've left the EU.
You complained at a lack of positive arguments from the remain side; I am pointing out that those wanting to maintain the status quo inherently will not have promises of bringing back the glory days etc. Interpret that how you will.
It is the same debate I had when discussing the Scottish indyref - reality is brushed off as scaremongering. Old Alex Salmond loved playing this card, when all the big companies, the bank of England, European leaders etc were saying "No, you arent going to get all [these ridiculous claims]." and all we heard back was "Look at all the scaremongerers!"
The sheer fact that $2tr was wiped off global assets, the pound dropped by 10%, Scotland looks likely to vote for independence, the EU looks like they may want to play hard ball... all of these things prove that it was not just scaremongering. If the Bank of England and others are calling for stability and saying we will be OK, you have to take that with a large pinch of salt given that they do not want to encourage even more economic turmoil than is absolutely necessary.
Again, what it comes down to is that one side is trying to maintain the status quo, the other side is trying to make changes. The impetus should be on the latter to present convincing arguments for why things need to change, rather than just operating on a bizarre assumption that the grass is going to be much, much greener on the other side.
I fully accept the Remain campaign did a poor job (much like Better Together 18 months ago), but it is hard to give 'positive' reasons to stay in the EU simply because those positive things are things that we already have and take for granted. The argument is about what we would lose by leaving the EU, and that is an inherently negative argument (but not scaremongering).
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As were the leave campaign, but stop deflecting. Since when is it okay to lie, scaremonger and be a cnut yourself just because someone else is? Give over. The entire leave campaign was project fear. Why aren't you outraged by it? Is it okay just because the remain side did it? Are you condoning lying to millions of people? It's okay because the remain side did it to? Is it okay to side with lies just because it suits your agenda and gives you the outcome you want? Or should you actually be outraged at both.
I burst out laughing after reading the headline!oates has just been reading me tweets being published on FB. Terrible incidents of blatant and aggressive racism all over the country. It's like the mouths of the fascists have been opened. People literally going up to anyone who isn't white British and telling them to go home now - including children. Leaflets being put through doors in rural Cambridgeshire telling people that a leave vote will get rid of "Polish vermin" (I quote with a heavy heart).
God save our country.
God save our country.
Not surprising. The tone of the Brexit campaign and talk of 'invasion' by the media has allowed xenophobia to become mainstream & acceptable. When you see supposed well-educated politicians discuss immigration as if it's some disease, and by extension give the idea that immigrants will be removed if we voted out, then I can't blame the uneducated, racist cnuts in the street for thinking any different.
The more I think about it the less certain I am that this is true:
-once article 50 is activated the EU hold most of the cards
-any deal that's going to be made will have to include some sort of clear disadvantage for Britain, because the remaining EU states can't allow GB to net benefit from this mess
-while on the other side the Brexit boys are going to take over the negotiations
I think in theory it would be the best possible compromise if Britain get a deal that leaves them worse off than before but still very much alive, but how can such an arrangement be sold to the British public, who voted 52% for brexit without committing political suicide?
What do people expect?
We've had months of unchecked xenophobia and when its been challenged we've been shouted down. The racists won. They feel empowered to be racist, this is the country they want.
That's the point you idiot. This wasn't about how utterly amazing the EU is. It's about how fecking dreadful it is to be outside it!
I mean of course there's benefits to the EU and they've been listed as length by the remain side but I know it's not appealing to every citizen. Although EU funding is clearly not as welcome as it bloody well should be.
As many said, including myself: the alternative (leave) being offered is based on nothing but conjecture, so I'll stick with what we have (we can always have another ref at some stage), let's stay in but without massive enthusiasm.
As it stands, freedom of movement isn't going away and there will be feck all 'benefit' to being outside the EU. Unless you're a retard who believes 'sovereignty' actually means something these days.
The burden of proof is very much on the other side and they can't even provide a single logical argument why this is a good thing.
The Leave voters I spoke to were all aware that we will be in an economic mess for 5 years or so but thought it was worth it.
I find it very, very hard to believe that you did actually vote Remain given your posts in this thread.
If you don't believe anything that remain said and believe most of what leave had, based on your posts in here, what was the reason that made you vote to stay?
Great article. This bit sums it all up.
"The real division in Britain is not between London and the north, Scotland and Wales or the old and young, but between Johnson, Gove and Farage and the voters they defrauded. What tale will serve them now? On Thursday, they won by promising cuts in immigration. On Friday, Johnson and the Eurosceptic ideologue Dan Hannan said that in all probability the number of foreigners coming here won’t fall. On Thursday, they promised the economy would boom. By Friday, the pound was at a 30-year low and Daily Mail readers holidaying abroad were learning not to believe what they read in the papers. On Thursday, they promised £350m extra a week for the NHS. On Friday, it turns out there are “no guarantees”."
You have to laugh at how pathetic it is that people bought into this, despite every expert telling them it was wrong. There is no justification for anyone who fell for it to come up with. You dismissed the opinion of everybody who knows anything about these issues in favour of three people who don't. Words can't describe how monumentally stupid that it was for anybody to believe.
Bet once the mess starts they will be the first to moan if it seriously impacts on their lives.
Yeah, exactly. That's why I don't think any deal that remotely smells like punishment (which is what the EU states need for it to work on their side) can be sold to the British public.
For the fight against facists i recommand these:
But the referendum had nothing to do with racism, it was all about 'the lack of democracy in EU' compared to the democratic monarchy when one of the two parliament rooms is completely unelected.oates has just been reading me tweets being published on FB. Terrible incidents of blatant and aggressive racism all over the country. It's like the mouths of the fascists have been opened. People literally going up to anyone who isn't white British and telling them to go home now - including children. Leaflets being put through doors in rural Cambridgeshire telling people that a leave vote will get rid of "Polish vermin" (I quote with a heavy heart).
God save our country.
At least, that is what the right wing Caftards were saying.
Unbelievable. Just had a recession and now they don't care if we get pushed back into more economic mess. fecking arseholes.
This ref has certainly highlighted the already talked about falling of education standards around the country. Then again, when it's 'cool to be ignorant' why would they care about things like logic, probability and evidence?
And they'll never admit they got it wrong. Even when they're homeless and see their jobs moving elsewhere.
Anything's worth it to get rid of them imgrants init!
Got Britain back, stuck a middle finger up dint we!
Farage said that he is happy, because the country had voted to leave 'without a single bullet being fired'.
Is he an idiot? How insensitive can you get.