I've already agreed about the UK's exports so please don't mention that again, I also agree extra costs would result in some reduction in Ireland's exports, but if you're producing stuff Britain needs or wants then there would only be the massive reduction you described earlier if Britain was obtaining the same elsewhere, instead of from Ireland. So if you believe Britain will find cheaper alternatives then you are pointing out a benefit, like it or not. Personally I doubt Ireland's exports to the UK will drop much at all, which is why I questioned your original assertion. I'm quite willing to be persuaded differently though, by a reasoned argument.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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https://www.irishtimes.com/news/pol...-hit-ireland-worse-than-uk-1.3403601?mode=amp
IMF warns Ireland will feel Brexit effects the most
https://www.rte.ie/amp/979852/
Even in this scenario, the speed at which the UK receives the goods will drop. Customs checks if it comes from Ireland, increased distances, lead time and reliability risks related to that if from further afield
So it's predicting Ireland's growth will slow to 1.5% after 2019. That's not as good as you'd hope for but it's not cataclysmic either.
I know mate, just because I pointed out one slight benefit, alleged by someone else, doesn't mean I'm a Brexiter.
The mother of all austerity. Hammond would wank hinself to death. He's already said we would require another decade of austerity.
My thoughts too. Or we try and borrow our way out of it, just making things even worse for the future. Disaster either way.
Our GDP is completely distorted by the multinationals that come here and sell their goods through Ireland. it rose 25% in 2015 because of Apple!
We are only 25th in the world in median household income, behind the UK, and 11th in average wage.
I wouldn’t describe putting more money into the NHS as an investment. You won’t get any decent return on it. The more money you give it, the more money passes right back out to consultants. It’s not equippred to deal with anything but the bare minimum it needs to operate.
I cant help but think that Mays speech demanding respect from the EU is actually aimed far more at the upcoming conservative conference
Surely the brexiteers have realised if they can topple her at conference that the subsequent election process for a new leader take them past the deadline of November to get a deal ratified and thus 100% ensure a hard brexit
i think her speech is designed solely for the purpose of getting enough wavering MP's to back her
( I guess the real crux of the issue is would Mogg / Johnson rather do that for ideological reasons - and actually have to implement it and be accountable... or would they rather yah boo from the sidelines and let it all fall apart before mounting a challenge next year - personally I expect the latter )
Surely the brexiteers have realised if they can topple her at conference that the subsequent election process for a new leader take them past the deadline of November to get a deal ratified and thus 100% ensure a hard brexit
i think her speech is designed solely for the purpose of getting enough wavering MP's to back her
( I guess the real crux of the issue is would Mogg / Johnson rather do that for ideological reasons - and actually have to implement it and be accountable... or would they rather yah boo from the sidelines and let it all fall apart before mounting a challenge next year - personally I expect the latter )
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The classified document says a potential worst case is a 7% drop in GDP for Ireland
If I've read it right that's the cumulative effect by 2030, and also 7% less than it would otherwise have been rather than a 7% drop. Again, not what you want but not cataclysmic either. I may have read it wrong though, I'm rushing off to do a fantasy football transfer. Priorities, eh.
Where did I say that Ireland wouldn't still export goods to the UK though? I never said it would drop, not short term, certainly long-term we would look to move to the rest of the EU instead. I said it would be much more expensive for us (and for you) to do so, in the short term, at least. The UK won't be able to find cheaper from elsewhere. That's highly wishful thinking.
I'm not sure how you're getting this "the UK will therefore get goods cheaper from elsewhere which is a benefit" thing from as I never even suggested that could happen.
Ah my apologies then, we're at cross purposes. In the post I first replied to you talked of being fecked, and of 40% of your products going to the UK, which led me to believe you expected a substantial drop in exports, but if you don't then fair enough. The rest would have followed from that, if you had meant what I assumed you meant.
Ah my apologies then, we're at cross purposes. In the post I first replied to you talked of being fecked, and of 40% of your products going to the UK, which led me to believe you expected a substantial drop in exports, but if you don't then fair enough. The rest would have followed from that, if you had meant what I assumed you meant.
fair enough.Obviously everything up to a hard Brexit is pure guesswork, maybe there will be some benefits as it has simply never happened before and can't be judged, but ultimately I do think both of our economies are going to take a massive hit, and maybe even us more so because we are still so reliant on the UK as our 'big brother' stop gap to the rest of the world. At least the UK does have this sort of infrastructure (ports, cargo points etc) in place to somewhat deal.
Mind you, I still think it's our own fault in a way. We should've used all that money we raked in over the celtic tiger years to sort all this out and become more self sufficient instead of wasting it on our inflated welfare and health systems, but that's another discussion.
Even looking at broader metrics, something like 15m people travel between Ireland and the UK every year, imagine what happens when passport checks are suddenly needed? Absolute chaos, I'd wager.
That's why I added the GNP figure mate, because there's always someone that tries to argue GDP.
I disagree with your disagreement.
Aren't the top 50 companies in Ireland by turnover either British or American?
Why are they choosing Ireland? Because it's a high tech, low tax, English speaking country, with access to the EU and UK markets.
In a hard brexit, with the UK trying to become a tax haven, the UK could compete with Ireland for American companies looking for an English during tax haven. In a hard brexit, Ireland could lose access to UK markets meeting it less valuable there.
The one big benefit is as the only majority English speaking country in the EU, and that's a big benefit. but I think the UK competing and losing access to the UK will outweigh the benefits
Our GNP is also completely distorted.
GNI is a far better metric than either GDP or GNI and even then, the IMF had to introduce a brand new metric (GNI*) to make sense of ours because it was so inflated beyond what it really is.
Only 1.5% growth, how catastrophic... better get ready for the rations lads.
Lol, ok
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(nominal,_Atlas_method)_per_capita
7th in the world...
I disagree with your disagreement
The bolded part, what we lose there is the UK, we keep the EU. 460m vs 65m people, vs moving to the Uk and getting... 65m people.
I agree in the short-term losing access to UK markets will be a major blow to us but a lot of those markets are already moving across to Europe anyway. Plus most of our multinationals are US multinationals, not UK, and they want EU access.
I hope you are right.I disagree with your disagreement
The bolded part, what we lose there is the UK, we keep the EU. 460m vs 65m people, vs moving to the Uk and getting... 65m people.
I agree in the short-term losing access to UK markets will be a major blow to us but a lot of those markets are already moving across to Europe anyway.
#stahpbrexit
That, we can agree on.
I'm not saying you're wrong but I don't get how they would lose access. How much would tariffs be? What sort of percentage would costs increase by because of customs and so on? I can see it would be more difficult, just asking how much more difficult.
I agree with a lot of that but I don't agree on moving low skilled jobs eastwards for lower wages is fine. I wouldn't say my job was low skilled but it was still moved elsewhere. What I am hearing now especially from eastern Europeans is that while there are more jobs created there, prices have gone up so much while wages have stagnated, therefore they still seek work in countries like NL. Its economic migration, I have hundreds of real examples. The final destination for a lot has always been the UK but salaries are way behind those in western Europe. Those that will soon lose the 30% tax rule here are now looking to Dubai, its all about money.
As no deal seems most likely outcome now, I would say that those companies that are still in the UK by april, will remain in the UK. That's my personal opinion not a factual one.
I don't deny that there may be job flight but I have no historical data to back that up. As I mentioned in my previous post, companies are still there despite it becoming more likely that there wont be a deal, whats keeping them there? Is it likely that on 1st April they will move on mass? I'm not sure. If any of these companies move to western Europe they will find their salary bill going up by 3 fold, is that attractive?
Good luck to them, Dubai now offers nowhere near the opportunities that it did in the early 2000s.
It depends what we're talking about.
Insurance companies and banks could lost access entirely. Agriculture companies could face fees of ~10% whilst tariffs from the commonwealth are cut (although the stated aim of JRM and his ilk is a no tariff UK).
Legal services could lose access. High tech firms could face red tape moving their workers from the UK.
It's no one thing, just a bunch of small stabs
He needs to do the polar opposite of austerity, has no one learnt yet? You cant pluck a bald chicken.
Depends on the field, these are smart cookies that have done their homework and have worked all over the world. They swarm where the money is like flies do with shit.
Well that's what he intends, unless we vote them out .
I get the financial side, not as in understanding it but as in believing it's a problem. They would have to have subsidiaries based in the UK I presume. They'd still have the EU though, and have less competition there with the UK out of it maybe. I'm out of my depth on banking however, I must admit.
Seen this on Facebook. What a dumbass thing, considering multiple countries in Europe worked together for it.
Seen this on Facebook. What a dumbass thing, considering multiple countries in Europe worked together for it.
So being hammered at home or at the colonies up until the US/Russia bailed us out is freeing Europe? Never thought of that. My grandparents lived in the most bombarded part of the British empire and they never felt like saviours. It was more like survivors.
Not sure bailed out is the right phrase but yeah, it was a coming together of nations that ultimately won it, which makes it such a dumbass thing to post!
It was a bailing out. Before Dunkirk Hitler could have wiped the entire British army away. Then things got more complicated but Nazi Germany could have invaded the UK or at least isolate it and pick up the pieces (Malta, North Africa etc) if it wanted. Luckily for us, the madman was also a huge idiot. Rather then consolidate his power, he decided to invade Russia which was basically suicide. Then his Japanese mate did the same with the US and it was basically over. Even good old Bismarck knew that Germany can never win a war where its forced to fight on two fronts and he wasn't thinking of two superpowers (Russia and US) + the British empire.
Returning to the subject, the EU is the result of the war, an attempt to keep nationalism at bay through prosperity and common rules. That's why the likes of Orban, Farage, Salvini, Le Pen and the Tory Party hates it.
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Please abuse that person until they quit the internetSeen this on Facebook. What a dumbass thing, considering multiple countries in Europe worked together for it.
You were bailed out.
I shouldn't laugh but didSeen this on Facebook. What a dumbass thing, considering multiple countries in Europe worked together for it.