Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
GloryHunter07 said:
Cant get past the paywall - care to summarise?

Tories are nasty cheating cnuts?
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Basically, yes - acting in bad faith. The Whips were ordering various Tory MPs to ignore an agreement with opposition MPs that they won’t vote on a motion if that opposition MP is unable to vote due to certain reasons (such as maternity leave).
 
MoskvaRed said:
Basically, yes - acting in bad faith. The Whips were ordering various Tory MPs to ignore an agreement with opposition MPs that they won’t vote on a motion if that opposition MP is unable to vote due to certain reasons (such as maternity leave).
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I feel like this should be a national scandal, so much going on it will probably get swept under the carpet.
 
EU publishes document re preparing withdrawal:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf...-preparing-withdrawal-brexit-preparedness.pdf

Particularly to be noted in a no deal scenario for those who think things will carry on as normal:

Main consequences of scenario 2: withdrawal on 30 March 2019 without a withdrawal agreement  The United Kingdom will be a third country and Union law ceases to apply to and in the United Kingdom9 .  Citizens: There would be no specific arrangement in place for EU citizens in the United Kingdom, or for UK citizens in the European Union.  Border issues: The European Union must apply its regulation and tariffs at borders with the United Kingdom as a third country, including checks and controls for customs, sanitary and phytosanitary standards and verification of compliance with EU norms. Transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union would be severely impacted. Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls at borders could cause significant delays, e.g. in road transport, and difficulties for ports.  Trade and regulatory issues: The United Kingdom becomes a third country whose relations with the European Union would be governed by general international public law, including rules of the World Trade Organisation. In particular, in heavily regulated sectors, this would represent a significant drawback compared to the current level of market integration.  Negotiations with the United Kingdom: Depending on the circumstances leading to the withdrawal without an agreement, the EU may wish to enter into negotiations with the United Kingdom as a third country.  EU funding: UK entities would cease to be eligible as Union entities for the purpose of receiving EU grants and participating in EU procurement procedures. Unless otherwise provided for by the legal provisions in force, candidates or tenderers from the United Kingdom could be rejected.
 
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Of course, we all know this will be spun as bully boy tactics by the EU. It doesn't matter they're pointing out a reality that everyone involved knew (or should have known) since the referendum was first floated as an idea, several years ago, the vile pricks behind Brexit will spin this as the EU making last-minute threats.
 
MadMike said:
No you didn't. You responded to a message that described a reaction (increasing interest rates) to a gradually weakening currency, while the rest of the fundamentals stay the same. You mentioned nothing of a crash. And you made the assertion that we've been eating high inflation because it's been 0.7% above target. Which is laughable really.
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0.7% above target and almost always ahead of wages so yes, we have been eating high inflation
 
Is it 0.7% or 0.7 points of percentage? The difference is massive and the latter isn't negligeable.
 
Mozza said:
0.7% above target and almost always ahead of wages so yes, we have been eating high inflation
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I really don't know why I bother tbh, but here goes... one last time.

No, we haven't. While wage growth vs inflation is an important metric, the rate of wage growth does not dictate whether the inflation is high or not. It's the inflation rate alone that dictates that. And same applies for the wage growth.

You could have 50% wage growth and 30% inflation, that's still an abominably high inflation. Because if you have a 50k income and 5 billion fortune, you wouldn't be happy with that inflation and you wouldn't give a feck about the wage growth. Because the currency of your assets is being devalued.

But looking away from the billionaire, if you're a low-skilled worker in a job sector who's median salary hasn't increased in step with the national average, you wouldn't be happy with that inflation. Equally if you're a company who's product or service hasn't increased in value in line with that inflation, the average wage growth could put you out of business in no time.

When the rates of inflation and wage growth are high, the distribution curve for net benefit/loss produces very fat tails. The likelihood of being a massive winner or a massive loser is quite big. This is highly undesirable.

2.7% is not high inflation. Money is not devaluing fast enough to be of a concern to individuals of businesses. The bank considers it normal between 1% and 3% (basically up 1% deviation from the target). So your "high inflation" assertion finds the BoE in disagreement.

And bear in mind, the BoE has no control over median salary and no way to influence it. The only things it has at its disposal is interest rates and printing money, which is only loosely linked to jobs and incomes.

Jippy said:
The major central banks have been desperately trying to inject inflation into the system, but failing.
QE hasn't worked as planned cos banks have kept hold of the cash rather than lend it. There have been loads of deflationary forces too- growth has been weak, competitive currency devaluing, end of the Chinese commodity super-cycle, companies hoarding cash etc...
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That's a broad statement. Central banks act on their economy and economies are different. Germany for example has a budget surplus, the lowest unemployment in EU, a healthy wage growth and inflation constantly below 2%. So they've been trying to coax inflation. Britain had the worst deficit (post crash) in EU due to the large banking sector that needed saving, above 2% inflation and a wage stagnation.

I don't recall Carney trying to coax inflation, I remember him more worried about keeping it down. I recall him saying that 0.5% inflation due to falling oil prices back in 15'-16' were temporary but not that he'd do anything to increase it. And he didn't. And he later warned against an inflation creep due to Brexit and potentially having to raise interest rates.

As for the effects of QE, it was mostly to buy distressed assets and govt bonds to keep yields low. I think the system recovered liquidity pretty quickly, I don't know to what extend that was down to QE. I mean the banks have been throwing money at people and business since 2012 which fuelled the massive boom in property prices of the last 5-6 years and the large increase in private debt. This might seem a bit anecdotal of course.

Do you have any interesting reading on the side effects of QE in the UK's case? The stuff I read tends to find it quite positive in retrospect.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
EU publishes document re preparing withdrawal:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf...-preparing-withdrawal-brexit-preparedness.pdf

Particularly to be noted in a no deal scenario for those who think things will carry on as normal:

Main consequences of scenario 2: withdrawal on 30 March 2019 without a withdrawal agreement  The United Kingdom will be a third country and Union law ceases to apply to and in the United Kingdom9 .  Citizens: There would be no specific arrangement in place for EU citizens in the United Kingdom, or for UK citizens in the European Union.  Border issues: The European Union must apply its regulation and tariffs at borders with the United Kingdom as a third country, including checks and controls for customs, sanitary and phytosanitary standards and verification of compliance with EU norms. Transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union would be severely impacted. Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls at borders could cause significant delays, e.g. in road transport, and difficulties for ports.  Trade and regulatory issues: The United Kingdom becomes a third country whose relations with the European Union would be governed by general international public law, including rules of the World Trade Organisation. In particular, in heavily regulated sectors, this would represent a significant drawback compared to the current level of market integration.  Negotiations with the United Kingdom: Depending on the circumstances leading to the withdrawal without an agreement, the EU may wish to enter into negotiations with the United Kingdom as a third country.  EU funding: UK entities would cease to be eligible as Union entities for the purpose of receiving EU grants and participating in EU procurement procedures. Unless otherwise provided for by the legal provisions in force, candidates or tenderers from the United Kingdom could be rejected.
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This particularly annoys the hell out of me almost two years and the clowns still haven't sorted anything out and as a UK citizen living in Germany I do not have a clue as to what will happen next March.

What papers will I need, what happens with my pension from the UK and my time in the Army etc. etc. every last one of these so called politicians should be ashamed of themselves.

A referendum is also need to change the name of the country because United Kingdom doesn't work whats united about the UK and Great Britain pull the other one Little Britain fits better.
 
dogrob said:
This particularly annoys the hell out of me almost two years and the clowns still haven't sorted anything out and as a UK citizen living in Germany I do not have a clue as to what will happen next March.

What papers will I need, what happens with my pension from the UK and my time in the Army etc. etc. every last one of these so called politicians should be ashamed of themselves.

A referendum is also need to change the name of the country because United Kingdom doesn't work whats united about the UK and Great Britain pull the other one Little Britain fits better.
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UK citizens who have moved abroad were always very low on the UK priority list. Now you're forgotten. I doubt you will have a problem staying in Germany but pension etc may be a problem.

Their only intention is to stay in power, what happens to their citizens whether at home or abroad is not important otherwise they wouldn't be continuing with this farce.

I don't see much being sorted out either, they're sleepwalking to disaster.
 
Mozza said:
You seem aware of all the steps they took to combat the crash but when it happens after a hard Brexit you seem to think inflation will be foremost in their minds, it won't
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It’ll probably be a run on the pound, capital flight and the need to jack interest rates. Britain used to regularly do that stuff.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
UK citizens who have moved abroad were always very low on the UK priority list. Now you're forgotten. I doubt you will have a problem staying in Germany but pension etc may be a problem.

Their only intention is to stay in power, what happens to their citizens whether at home or abroad is not important otherwise they wouldn't be continuing with this farce.

I don't see much being sorted out either, they're sleepwalking to disaster.
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I dunno. I think the removal of right to free movement was very high on their list, and they are prepared to sacrifice brits living, retiring or working abroad to that end.
 
nickm said:
I dunno. I think the removal of right to free movement was very high on their list, and they are prepared to sacrifice brits living, retiring or working abroad to that end.
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Yes agree, but because of the FOM issue(amongst others) they are not going to get any deal and so everyone is going to suffer.
 
TMDaines said:
I’m checking out the Italian and German ones of these now. They are clunky for sure, but seen worse. I’ve learnt that Brexit is feminine in Italian and masculine in German though.
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I mean the biggest problem with these is apparent when you go back to the English original. That too is complete gibberish, filled with political pull quotes and utter vagaries. You can’t translate this and have it make logical sense in any language, because its complete bollocks in English.
 
TMDaines said:
I’m checking out the Italian and German ones of these now. They are clunky for sure, but seen worse. I’ve learnt that Brexit is feminine in Italian and masculine in German though.
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The German one reads like it was translated word for word by someone who learned the language to a good level at university, but has little to no experience speaking it. So the grammar is mostly fine, but the word choice and tone is quite odd. It's certainly nothing like the bureaucratic German you'd expect to find in an official document.
 
ctp said:
The German one reads like it was translated word for word by someone who learned the language to a good level at university, but has little to no experience speaking it. So the grammar is mostly fine, but the word choice and tone is quite odd. It's certainly nothing like the bureaucratic German you'd expect to find in an official document.
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Yes, indeed. I can hear the English voice behind it when reading it. I was 99% sure that it was not translated by a native German speaker.
 
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nickm said:
I dunno. I think the removal of right to free movement was very high on their list, and they are prepared to sacrifice brits living, retiring or working abroad to that end.
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All these clowns and buffoons are interested in is themselves and that not only for the Tories but all the political parties, but hey one day this will come back to bite them and mark my words the day of reckoning for these people will come. In a worse case Scenario I would have to take German Citizenship which I do not particularly want to because I am British regardless of where I live.
 
dogrob said:
All these clowns and buffoons are interested in is themselves and that not only for the Tories but all the political parties, but hey one day this will come back to bite them and mark my words the day of reckoning for these people will come. In a worse case Scenario I would have to take German Citizenship which I do not particularly want to because I am British regardless of where I live.
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You should hurry up if you’re going to apply. Doesn’t Germany only accept duel nationality with other EU nations?
 
Kentonio said:
You should hurry up if you’re going to apply. Doesn’t Germany only accept duel nationality with other EU nations?
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As far as I know due to the EU at the moment I can have both but actually getting it through before Brexit I dont think that there is time enough anymore add to that the fact that before you could go to the Ausländerbehörde (Office for non Germans) pull a ticket then at some point you would see someone, now you have to make an appointment which is usually 3 months later which can only be done online or over the telephone.

Politicians from both Brussels and the UK finally need to stop faffing about and finally sort out something for the EU citizens in the UK and the UK citizens in Europe instead of try to make brownie points against each other, people have a right to know what will happen and through which hoops they have to spring through to stay where they are and work etc.

On another level personally I am against dual nationality you are either one or the other but that still should not be the cause of problems for people to live and move in another country.
 
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dogrob said:
As far as I know due to the EU at the moment I can have both but actually getting it through before Brexit I dont think that there is time enough anymore add to that the fact that before you could go to the Ausländerbehörde (Office for non Germans) pull a ticket then at some point you would see someone, now you have to make an appointment which is usually 3 months later which can only be done online or over the telephone.

Politicians from both Brussels and the UK finally need to stop faffing about and finally sort out something for the EU citizens in the UK and the UK citizens in Europe instead of try to make brownie points against each other, people have a right to know what will happen and through which hoops they have to spring through to stay where they are and work etc.
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It might still be a good idea to at least start the process, as if you try afterwards they might be looking at applications very differently. I'm a UK citizen in France, and here its a bit easier as they allow duel nationality without the EU only restriction, but I don't have the 5 years yet, so I'm just generally fecked if it all goes south.

I blame the UK government 100% for this. They were the ones who insisted on this whole 'Nothings agreed until everything is agreed' shite, they wanted to use the EU citizens in the UK as bargaining chips and were perfectly willing to hang us out to dry in the process. After two years of not knowing what the feck is going to happen, I've long given up any hope that they're suddenly going to pull their heads out of their asses and produce some amazing solution. At this point I think we all just need to start doing whatever we can to look out for ourselves.
 
Kentonio said:
It might still be a good idea to at least start the process, as if you try afterwards they might be looking at applications very differently. I'm a UK citizen in France, and here its a bit easier as they allow duel nationality without the EU only restriction, but I don't have the 5 years yet, so I'm just generally fecked if it all goes south.

I blame the UK government 100% for this. They were the ones who insisted on this whole 'Nothings agreed until everything is agreed' shite, they wanted to use the EU citizens in the UK as bargaining chips and were perfectly willing to hang us out to dry in the process. After two years of not knowing what the feck is going to happen, I've long given up any hope that they're suddenly going to pull their heads out of their asses and produce some amazing solution. At this point I think we all just need to start doing whatever we can to look out for ourselves.
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Did you ask for a carte de séjour?
 
Theresa May's performance in front of the select committee was a disgrace. She didn't even understand the document she had in front of her.
You listen to Dorries, Hoey and our MPs in general. You get the feeling these guys would struggle to get a job in the real world. Where the feck do we find these people?
 
Adisa said:
Theresa May's performance in front of the select committee was a disgrace. She didn't even understand the document she had in front of her.
You listen to Dorries, Hoey and our MPs in general. You get the feeling these guys would struggle to get a job in the real world. Where the feck do we find these people?
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It's a mystery, our former employment minister had no idea about how many types of minimum wages we had in France. And she has a doctorate in Economy.
 
JPRouve said:
It's a mystery, our former employment minister had no idea about how many types of minimum wages we had in France. And she has a doctorate in Economy.
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These guys are usually political appointees even before they have left uni. They don't have a fecking clue how the real world works. Our PM couldn't answer a simple yes or no question if her proposal means we would collect tariffs for the EU. Did she even read it?
Dorries, one of the cheerleaders of brexit still doesn't know the difference between the CU and SM.
 
Adisa said:
These guys are usually political appointees even before they have left uni. They don't have a fecking clue how the real world works. Our PM couldn't answer a simple yes or no question if her proposal means we would collect tariffs for the EU. Did she even read it?
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I think she knows but if you read it, it's way too stupid to say it out loud. Personally, I would have asked her why would companies use the UK as a transit to the EU, the main entry ports are on the continent(Rotterdam and Antwerp) and companies can easily produce directly on the continent too.
 
I think it's coming. At this point it's inevitable.
Politicians in Germany starting to prepare the people and the companies for the hard hit the EU is gonna take, when Britain is leaving.
 
JPRouve said:
I think she knows but if you read it, it's way too stupid to say it out loud. Personally, I would have asked her why would companies use the UK as a transit to the EU, the main entry ports are on the continent(Rotterdam and Antwerp) and companies can easily produce directly on the continent too.
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Shipping - for example Southern Ireland to Europe for long loads is shocking - not enough direct capacity so most of the time we have to ship into the uk to ship onwards (same to get holland to southern ireland - transits through uk)
I suspect if nothing else Brexit will lead to a fair bit of port works and some new ferry routes
 
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