But the problem is they haven't. The assumption is we'll get a deal, the problem is the government keep dangling this mentalist 'no deal' carrot.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
- Start date
But the problem is they haven't. The assumption is we'll get a deal, the problem is the government keep dangling this mentalist 'no deal' carrot.
I thought we had learnt by now that a narrow majority of 52% means everything...
Crazy
Mike, the trade doesn't have to stop completely, all it needs is for the trade hubs (ie Dover) to suddenly have to be processing every vehicle that passes through at a much slower rate than at present, and suddenly all those supermarkets that are reliant on imported goods will start having empty shelves within weeks. Obviously a lot of food is created domestically, but if people can't buy imported stuff the demand for those also rises massively, leading to shortages there that we didn't have previously, and don't have the capacity to replace. Meanwhile trucks are backing up at the ports, with perishables in serious danger of not making it to their destinations in time.
This is not a tin foil hat scenario, this is what is going to happen if there is genuinely no deal and we just crash out. Our ports don't have the customs staff and infrastructure they would need to handle a hugely increased workload, and that stuff takes time to build and train people for. Have you noticed now little time we have left?
Raising rates and buying Sterling are two different things. Carney could do the first but never touch the latter. As you say, he's a pragmatist. He didn't react to the post-Brexit results because obviously that was just speculators dumping Sterling on back of a vote result. It had no impact on the fundamentals of the economy. If a weakening pound, due to a now settled Brexit, causes inflation then that's a more long term effect.
Regarding unemployment, a slight distortion on a historic low, is still a low. Only 2.8% of our workforce is on zero hour contracts and we have 4.1% unemployment. There's nothing equivocal about it, that's low.
Regarding the shortages on certain goods, these will only happen due to disruptions in the supply chain. Which is something that can be planned around and prevented once the direction of Brexit is made clear. We have people in this thread saying we won't be able to be able to trade with Spain after Brexit ffs.
The dude (Davis) was a useless wanker who's thankfully quit. But in any case this work is done by civil servants not government attention whores. Call me optimistic, but I don't think the Dover port collapse will come to pass, partly because plans will begin to get drawn up as we get closer to a decision and partly because the EU will require preparations on the Calais side as well. Thus a temporary delay until measures are in place would suit both sides.
The problem isn't tarrifs but the fact that every shipment has to be treated individually. Something that is important to remember is that lots of foreign goods aren't necessarily processed in Dover but in their EU entry port, it can be Dunkerque, Antwerp, Genoa, Hamburg, Rotterdam, Le Havre, etc. These shipments are checked by customs and given a custom/trade area patent, so when a shipment arrive from these ports customs don't necessarily have to treat them individually because they are EU lots, without a deal these lots are foreign, they don't have a patent.
Although agree with a lot of the posts in this thread, it does rather have the ring of the average United Forum thread.
On the plus side everyone that loses their jobs at Airbus etc can go work in Dover.
If we imported nothing and exported nothing we'd have gluts of some types of food and scarcity in other areas. Basically - tonnes of wheat and sod all broccoli.
@MadMike what about the EU Nationals responsible for processing alot of that 52%? What happens to them in the event of No Deal? Are they still allowed to work, or will our food be rotting in the fields?
Also your unemployment figures don't account for unpaid carers, of which there are a huge number.
Also your unemployment figures don't account for unpaid carers, of which there are a huge number.
That unbreakable Brexiteer optimism that somehow things will all work out just fine without anybody actually doing something to make it happen never ceases to amaze me
That unbreakable Brexiteer optimism that somehow things will all work out just fine without anybody actually doing something to make it happen never ceases to amaze me
I'm a remainer. I just like to call out weak arguments and because this thread is very one-way traffic and someone has to play the devil's advocate for an argument to be had and a semblance of logic to prevail.
The government would not start hiring customs officials and building up depots until the decision on Brexit becomes more crystallised. And the exact same thing applies to the other side. Calais port would not handle customs checking every lorry from the UK on its current infrastructure. They'll also have to build that up and they've also done nothing on it yet.
Obviously the UK is more dependent on EU trade than the other way round. Which is why the govt said that if push came to shove and we were faced with the worst scenario of "no deal" Brexit and no infrastructure to handle the volume (ergo, potential shortages), they would throw the borders open with no tariff collection until the infrastructure is in place. Which would be a terrible scenario as it would cost billions in lost revenue but it makes the likelihood of shortages is very, very remote.
I generally believe we'll go to a "no deal" Brexit in the sense that there will be no specific trade deal set up for the day after, beyond standard WTO rules. But I do believe that they'll agree on a date when this comes in effect to allow both sides to better prepare for it.
Brexit is like seeing a loved one determined to commit suicide and there's nothing you can do.
Tell me about it. I'm not one for blind optimism but Ι dislike pessimistic doom-mongering as well.
FFS
Ok if you want to be devils advocate then fair enough. Can you tell us then what you see as the positives to come from a no deal brexit?
Mate, most people on here talking from their perspectives and what you gonna find is pessimism comes from being vulnerable to this subject with peoples lifes/well-being/planning/businesses depending on it. Actually, let me guess - you're probably convinced (for a good reason most likely) in whatever you are currently doing that Brexit isn't going to have a significant impact in terms of your job prospects/life planning/business, hence the optimism?
I don't really see any real positives, hence I'm a remainer. I think we're shooting ourselves in the foot, it'll cost us a shit ton of money and set us back 10 years.
But I'm fairly sure we won't end up with food shortages and doomsday scenarios either.
Ok so no positives and only huge negatives. You can understand why there is such doom and gloom about it then? I'm talking as somebody living in Northern Ireland who is genuinely fearful about what brexit (in particular a no deal brexit) will do to the economy, society and stability here - I honestly couldn't care less about some food running out - way more to worry about than that from my perspective.
Apologies, yes, perfect sense. Perils of getting involved while walking. Isnt our primary export whiskey though? I get we will all need a few drinks if no deal happens but dont think we could live off it.
I work in IT for a brokerage firm in London and I recently exchanged on a property. I don't see how that puts me on a list of people that is impervious to the effects of Brexit. Which is what I think you're implying.
The worry is that, if the UK government continues to refuse to face reality, by next year this thread could have the ring of a Sunderland forum thread.
It's understandable though, given there are no obvious positives and no plan, it makes sense why people are doom and gloom. Add on the fact that those in charge have shown to be completely incompetent from all sides.
IT is a safe bet no matter what
Anyway, it is even more weird that you're not overly concerned with 'no deal' scenario.Have they figured out how to renegotiate the Open Skies agreement?
I don't do optimism or pessimism.
Only do logic and reality.
Food and currency are just a couple of thousands of other problems caused by no-deal but we've probably covered them all at some point in the past two and a half years.
Only internal flights after the end of March.
Well, only to an extent. It's not good, but it's not the end of the world either like. And I dislike this doom prophesying going on, especially when I don't think it's based on realism.
IT is a safe bet no matter what
I'm concerned. I'm just don't believe everything will go to complete shit and the UK turn into Zimbabwe overnight which is the picture some people are painting.
It would be nice to hear a single, solitary positive to coming out of Europe, just one thing.
tbf, my dad did come up with something, that the EU accounts audit report has never been unqualified. Considering things like the expenses scandal, that doesn't really wash with me. In any case, it isn't a reason the leave the EU.
Zimbabwe has food
Yeah, you're in my list of people that are detached from reality.
Zimbabwe is optimistic. I'm picturing more Mad Max : Fury Road
Let me know when I get something wrong. Keep crossing your fingers.
Well what about Northern Ireland then? A no deal brexit will almost certainly mean some sort of customs border here. That is reality.
That was a joke, but they do have to something quickly because time is running out. There are so many things to sort out but the government have their head in the sand and hope they will all go away or that the EU and WTO et al will give way and let them do as they please. Criminal negligence.
How about I'll let you know when you get something right?
Everything so far.
Isn't this an issue that effects a huge amount of Leavers? You'd think this is something they should be getting beaten over the head with.