I've struck again.Sorry but this is perfect
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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Agree with this, particularly the bold bit. If we crash out with no deal i cant see Carney tightening policy, makes no sense.
That’s the “no deal better than a bad deal” lies fed to them by Brexiteers. In the post truth era people believe any old shit. Which is how we got in this fecked up situation in the first place.
Do we actually know what would happen in a 'no deal' scenario? I can't really fathom it but all I know is that it would be bad.
I think this will start to become clearer over the next few weeks as the EU start to prepare for it. The UK government will most likely still be sitting with their feet up during summer recess....
I'm in N.I, crashing out with no deal doesn't even bare thinking about. Seriously worrying.
I am going to a party this weekend and a guy there is a staunch leaver and very opinionated when it comes to one liners. i can generally argue my own and inevitably end up in a debate with him if the topic comes up, but have you guys got any good one liners / rhetorical questions that xould serve as an ace up my sleeve?
They definitely will be. They're even pushing for an early holiday this year.
You can't make it up.Mate, I think you live in the place that it will hit hardest, quite frankly.
Funnily enough I reckon it's the urban sprawls that largely voted to remain that this will affect the least, like London, and the more rural parts that largely voted leave that it will hit hardest.
Fellow Ulsterman here mate - I too am frankly scared about what could happen.
As others have said, hard Brexit and all trade grinding to a complete halt has certainly not been factored in. You'd probably be looking at one of the worst days trading in the history of sterling and that's no exaggeration.
The last thing the BoE will do is raise interest rates. The economy is weak as it is and cannot take a rate rise. Remember the emergency 25bps cut straight after the referendum result? Inflation has peaked for now, but obviously that will change if sterling crashes and we're paying tariffs on imports as well. Carney will have a nightmare job trying to balance the economy, but he'd defo rather let inflation rise than risk a rate hike.
Feels like its kind of impossible to say really. A genuine no deal without any last second arrangements for anything is practically fecking apocalyptical for the UK, which is why no-one thought it was a genuine option. We're talking planes unable to fly to the continent, Dover coming to a complete standstill and the roads gridlocking with trucks across the country and supermarkets running out of food and hospitals out of medicine within an estimated 2 weeks. It's basically utterly unthinkable. Which is why its so terrifying that the government insisted on repeating that 'Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'. What it would mean for UK citizens in the EU like me, and the millions of EU citizens in the UK is totally unknown.
100% with Mozza on this one. I'd absolutely be talking to a financial advisor right now about the possibility of shifting most of your cash into a different currency. That sounds crazy, but seriously if no-deal actually happens then the pound could get obliterated.
Staggered we're in this position... its like the country is trying to handicap itself. What the feck are we doing.
Bitcoin is currently fueling it's rocket again if you are happy to take a risk.
From "no deal" Brexit to trade grinding to a complete halt, is a big leap though. You're basically describing Armageddon there. A single day's bad trading on the Sterling is not that significant. We already had that happen post Brexit vote, but a lot of that was recovered since.
Also the second paragraph is wrong to my knowledge. Signs of a weak pound and the first thing that BoE will do is raise interest rates, not the last. Because a weaker pound immediately translates to inflation, since we're mostly an importing nation in terms of basic basket goods. Ergo inflation has not peaked, not in the slightest. The Bank will try to counter the selling of the Sterling by increasing the rates.
Again, I'm not really saying that everything will go exactly as I say. I'm just saying that many people here predict doom very prematurely. There's strong fundamentals in the British economy and that doesn't change over night. I don't know why you think the economy is particularly weak at the moment. Growth figures are somewhat sluggish, but we do have low unemployment, increasing real incomes and public finances that are mostly alright now with low deficit (pre-Crisis levels) and manageable debt.
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Isn't No Deal Brexit going to cause global companies to start moving away from the UK though? I know theres been several threats, but you wouldn't expect them to stick around throug loyalty. This hasnt happened yet as they were all assuming the country would see reason and have a soft brexit.
Loyalty is not a thing in business. Generally the UK offers a good proposition for services companies that want a European base because it has an English-speaking, highly skilled workforce with a big jobs market and a pretty solid legal framework to work with. The access to the single market will change but the rest of the fundamentals will not.
The larger the investment the company has made in the UK, the costlier it is to move. Companies with >5k employees can't up sticks and move overnight. I reckon the majority of them will originally stay put and assess the situation as it progresses because everything is too volatile at the moment to act upon. They'll initially absorb the cost and make some contingency plans and after the first financial year post-Brexit, when the dust has settled a bit, they will be in a position to make a more informed decision.
We have big trade deals with Trump
Are we sure about that?
As fresh food will be in short supply next April, ask him if he has placed his order with Trump for tins of Spam that the USA have been trying to get rid of since WW2. They're a bit past their sell by date but the UK will no longer worry about standards.
I was not being serious. My guess is that we are screwed if there is a hard brexit .
Do you genuinely believe the UK will have a food shortage as an aftermath of Brexit?
The problem we have is that unlike some other countries the UK is not self-sustaining in terms of food. We simply rely heavily on imported food - what will happen if there is a no deal brexit? Nobody knows but it is possible that all current trade deals with EU countries would cease immediately due to no trade deal being in place so there would be a period of time between no deal and a new deal being brokered that possibly would mean a lack of imports and exports to the EU. In that scenario then yes there could be a food shortage absolutely.
May is going to Belfast to garner support for a brexit strategy she has made illegal.
You guys are off your rockers
That's not a realistic scenario mate. Food supply is tailored to match demand. The producers who supply the UK won't suddenly start tossing their goods in garbage dumps and demand won't magically manifest elsewhere to compensate the suppliers. Deals between suppliers and producers don't generally go up in the air because of tariff changes.
Realistic scenario is that UK companies pay the tariff for imported goods and then pass the cost to the consumer. EU goods will become more expensive afterwards. That's about it.
Also, majority of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. There's no realistic scenario of food shortages.
Source: https://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/challenge/your-food-is-global/
Im not sure i agree regarding inflation & bank rate. I think recent history has shown us that the BOE will "look through/past" a spike in inflation if it believes the underlying economy is weak and needs supportive monetary policy.
As @Jippy said, they cut rates after the refferendum despite Sterling tumbling.
You guys are off your rockers
That's not a realistic scenario mate. Food supply is tailored to match demand. The producers who supply the UK won't suddenly start tossing their goods in garbage dumps and demand won't magically manifest elsewhere to compensate the suppliers. Deals between suppliers and producers don't generally go up in the air because of tariff changes.
Realistic scenario is that UK companies pay the tariff for imported goods and then pass the cost to the consumer. EU goods will become more expensive afterwards. That's about it.
Also, majority of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. There's no realistic scenario of food shortages.
Source: https://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/challenge/your-food-is-global/
Food shortages does not mean ALL food - it means SOME food types will be affected and clearly there is a risk of this, at least for a short time. What happens to a UK based importer of melons from Spain if there is a no deal brexit? Can they still import melons from Spain? I've honestly no idea.
You guys are off your rockers
That's not a realistic scenario mate. Food supply is tailored to match demand. The producers who supply the UK won't suddenly start tossing their goods in garbage dumps and demand won't magically manifest elsewhere to compensate the suppliers. Deals between suppliers and producers don't generally go up in the air because of tariff changes.
Realistic scenario is that UK companies pay the tariff for imported goods and then pass the cost to the consumer. EU goods will become more expensive afterwards. That's about it.
Also, majority of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. There's no realistic scenario of food shortages.
Source: https://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/challenge/your-food-is-global/
How does that not indicate a shortage scenario if we only produce 52% of our consumed food?
You guys are off your rockers
That's not a realistic scenario mate. Food supply is tailored to match demand. The producers who supply the UK won't suddenly start tossing their goods in garbage dumps and demand won't magically manifest elsewhere to compensate the suppliers. Deals between suppliers and producers don't generally go up in the air because of tariff changes.
Realistic scenario is that UK companies pay the tariff for imported goods and then pass the cost to the consumer. EU goods will become more expensive afterwards. That's about it.
Also, majority of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. There's no realistic scenario of food shortages.
Shame the Department for Exiting the EU don't agree with your little Brexit fantasy, hey?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/revealed-plans-for-doomsday-no-deal-brexit-02mld2jg2
Well, I really shouldn't have to explain this but here goes...
Because:
a) We produce more than we consume, since we also export (it's noted right there in the graph)
b) Having tariffs on goods doesn't suddenly stop the trade. We import from non-EU nations just fine.
I can't read the article,requires subscription.
I'm slightly surprised you're not already familiar with the leak that it's reporting given that you're trying to present yourself as knowledgeable on this topic and it was widely reported at the time, but at any rate if you google the key words you'll find it. Even the Daily Mail couldn't put a positive slant on it.
While you might not start starving right away, the overall availability of fruit and vegetables will certainly take a huge nosedive, as you simply won't have the capacities needed to process all your EU imports through the customs.
Better start hoarding them Oranges...
Why wouldn't the UK importer be able to buy melons from Spain? What is the logical block in that? Two countries members of the WTO. There will be tariffs and costs will be higher, that's basically it.
The only real worry is whether we'll have a system in place for goods to clear customs fast enough without blockages. Not whether we'll be able to trade.
The thing I find amazing is how people are trying to normalize all this shite, none of this had to happen the whole fecking thing was dreamt up just to make the rich twats like JRM richer. The ordinary Joe has to suffer but he is willingly doing it with a smile because brown people!
Ah is this the doomsday scenario where the port of Dover collapses?
Yes, if 17% of our total trade literally vanished overnight we would have shortages. I somehow feel that they'll have created plans for customs that don't cause unrelenting blockages in Dover. Call me crazy.
If you like.
Your optimism is admirable. Did you read the white paper? The complete lack of any sort of forward planning couldn’t be more obvious and the dude in charge of making all these plans quit last week.
As @GloryHunter07 said, Carney is a pragmatist and won't react to a spike in inflation, he has to think longer-term. Plus you'd have to put rates up loads to tempt in speculators, given the lack of trade deal killing our fundamentals.
The BoE could raise rates and buy sterling to try and defend the currency, but that would be crazy, cos you'll get creamed by hedge funds, like on Black Wednesday when the UK fell out of the ERM.
We do have high employment, but that's slightly distorted by zero hours contracts etc...Consumer debt is very high and wage growth only recently nudged ahead of inflation.
I don't think people are saying we'll all starve to death, more that certain products, eg fruit and veg flown in from say Spain might face shortages.You guys are off your rockers
That's not a realistic scenario mate. Food supply is tailored to match demand. The producers who supply the UK won't suddenly start tossing their goods in garbage dumps and demand won't magically manifest elsewhere to compensate the suppliers. Deals between suppliers and producers don't generally go up in the air because of tariff changes.
Realistic scenario is that UK companies pay the tariff for imported goods and then pass the cost to the consumer. EU goods will become more expensive afterwards. That's about it.
Also, majority of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. There's no realistic scenario of food shortages.
Source: https://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/challenge/your-food-is-global/
There will be shortages of many different things, how much is up for debate.
People are worried about tariffs , it's not the tariffs alone they should be worried about it's the continuous regular supply.
Interruptions in supply of all things will cause a massive disruption.
It's not comparable directly but remember the KFC /DHL disruption not that long ago. Doesn't take much to cause chaos.
Thinking that everything will carry on as usual after a no-deal scenario is wishful thinking in the extreme.
I'm not saying this to wind people up or exaggerate. This is an extremely serious problem for the UK.