Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
balaks said:
I think it was more that most people were prepared to break up the UK - NI mainly and Scotland possibly - as long as Brexit goes through.
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Wow, surprised by that tbh. Scotland would be a shock given they lost the last independence referendum. I know theres the argument for Brexkt wasnt an issue then but typically relationships are through thick and thin...
 
Silva said:
As in, Leave the EU even if Scotland and NI leave the UK.
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Oh ok I get it. English poll. Thats a big portion. Surprised that even still Brits are sticking to their Brexit opinions. My gf is English and her family think UK will be fine. Theres the "stiff upper lip" mentality amongst some I guess.
 
Green_Red said:
Wow, surprised by that tbh. Scotland would be a shock given they lost the last independence referendum. I know theres the argument for Brexkt wasnt an issue then but typically relationships are through thick and thin...
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Brexit is an English thing mainly (and Welsh) - generally Scotland and NI voted against it so already we are all pissed off with it and are getting increasingly so as the calls for a harder Brexit get louder and we are pulled into something we don't want and something (in NI) that could potentially destabilise the region again or economically destroy us. This heightens tensions and may lead to more people asking themselves 'do I really want to be part of a UK that does this?' so it may indirectly lead to more support for a united Ireland or an independant Scotland.
 
balaks said:
It is an agreement between the UK and Ireland - if Ireland agreed to the terms I have highlighted (which they already have said they would) then it would be fine - as long as it is within the 'spirit' of the GFA. The reality is that there is a way through Brexit that maintains the GFA and that is for NI to remain in EU in all but name. That is all that matters.
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The problem here is with WTO and it also concerns the EU because without FTA and CU the absence of borders and potentially tariffs means that both the EU and the UK are in breach of the rules.
 
balaks said:
Northern Ireland can have a unique relationship as partners in the EU by matching the trade and custom requirements of the EU which is in my view exactly what will happen. The UK leaving the EU does not necessarily mean the GFA is broken - a hard border will though - essentially NI will remain in the EU in all but name. I honestly can't see how any other option currently being looked at would work.
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NI will prosper if this happens, unfortunately the DUP dont want that.
 
Green_Red said:
Is that view of leaving the UK a view held primarily by nationalists or are Unionists starting to think in those terms too? Do you know?
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I'm broadly from a unionist background and right now I honestly would consider a united ireland because of how this thing has gone down. If I'm thinking that way then you can be sure others are starting to wonder.
 
balaks said:
I'm broadly from a unionist background and right now I honestly would consider a united ireland because of how this thing has gone down. If I'm thinking that way then you can be sure others are starting to wonder.
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What about elected MPs? Are there any making noises for that?

I guess it doesnt have to be United Ireland, it can just be a pro European NI.
 
balaks said:
Don't even start me on the DUP.... this could actually be a fantastic opportunity for NI's economy if we played it right.
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Yeah it would be great for you. Right now you're in a really tough situation, over reliant on the UK to the point that leaving the UK would be disastrous for you, and given the UK's current trajectory, not exactly in a great position if you stay either.

Essentially this would give you the best of both worlds, access to both the UK and EU market from multi-nationals perspective, it'd be a dream for Belfast.

oh, and you know, no hard border, which would be nice.
 
balaks said:
I'm broadly from a unionist background and right now I honestly would consider a united ireland because of how this thing has gone down. If I'm thinking that way then you can be sure others are starting to wonder.
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No disrespect but there isn't a hope in hell ROI would agree to a united Ireland any time in the next 10-15 years. NI would need to seriously improve it's economy and become far less reliant on the UK for it to even be considered. Plus, I think if NI reached that stage they probably wouldn't want to anyway.
 
Massive Spanner said:
No disrespect but there isn't a hope in hell ROI would agree to a united Ireland any time in the next 10-15 years. NI would need to seriously improve it's economy and become far less reliant on the UK for it to even be considered. Plus, I think if NI reached that stage they probably wouldn't want to anyway.
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I think that depends on what would be proposed if it was happening. I think if Northern Ireland was to enter a United Ireland, then i imagine there would be a change over period where Britain would still be financially supporting the area for a set number of years. Also possible the EU could help fund the area until the economy grows, i think they might have done something similar with east germany when germany reunited.
 
Green_Red said:
How would Brits feel if NI was removed from the UK in order for the Belfast Agreement to be honoured?

I suppose if NI is no longer part of the UK thrn there is no need for a Belfast Agreement...
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Arlene Foster is still alive.
I do agree with @balaks that people here don't really give a crap about NI, u less it starts affecting our peace.
 
Just saw this

Labour’s Chuku Umunna says the EU Withdrawal Act makes it illegal to do anything that would introduce a hard border in Ireland. But if the UK were to leave without a deal, under WTO rules it would have to impose border controls. Can May confirm then that the Act makes a no deal Brexit illegal.

May says she does not accept that interpretation. After leaving, the UK could decide for itself what it did with the border, she claims.

If this is what she actually said, this is grossly negligent and unbelievably stupid.
 
stevoc said:
I think that depends on what would be proposed if it was happening. I think if Northern Ireland was to enter a United Ireland, then i imagine there would be a change over period where Britain would still be financially supporting the area for a set number of years. Also possible the EU could help fund the area until the economy grows, i think they might have done something similar with east germany when germany reunited.
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Even under that circumstance the North would be more likely to go alone than as a United Ireland imo, assuming they stayed in the EU. Half of the North don't consider themselves to be Irish, after all.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Even under that circumstance the North would be more likely to go alone than as a United Ireland imo, assuming they stayed in the EU. Half of the North don't consider themselves to be Irish, after all.
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Stupid question: Coming from the island of Ireland isn't enough to consider yourself Irish?
 
JPRouve said:
Stupid question: Coming from the island of Ireland isn't enough to consider yourself Irish?
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Welcome to the wonderful world of Irish politics and identity. In other words this is a much more complex issue than a border.
 
balaks said:
Welcome to the wonderful world of Irish politics and identity.
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That part is fairly confusing from the outside. And must be upsetting for a part of the population, I guess?
 
JPRouve said:
That part is fairly confusing from the outside. And must be upsetting for a part of the population, I guess?
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It's extremely difficult to get a good grasp of the complexities here so I understand that outsiders struggle with it.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Even under that circumstance the North would be more likely to go alone than as a United Ireland imo, assuming they stayed in the EU.
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I don't really see any scenario where Northern Ireland could sustain itself long term. I don't think an independent state is really a possibility from an economical or political point of view.

There are a lot of people in NI who want to stay in the UK and a lot who want to join Ireland. I don't imagine there are many who are pushing for NI to become it's own country.

Half of the North don't consider themselves to be Irish, after all.
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Not sure about that anymore, certainly there is still a fair amount of loyalists who don't see themselves as Irish. But there are a lot of people from a Unionist background that do see themselves as Irish or at least Northern Irish as well as being British.

Plus the demographics are rapidly changing in the North. Catholics will soon be the majority, granted not all of them will be nationalists desperate for a United Ireland. But a lot of them won't be locked into the idea of staying in the UK either if it doesn't make economic sense. Brexit i think has changed a lot of peoples minds on the subject.
 
stevoc said:
I don't really see any scenario where Northern Ireland could sustain itself long term. I don't think an independent state is really a possibility from an economical or political point of view.

There are a lot of people in NI who want to stay in the UK and a lot who want to join Ireland. I don't imagine there are many who are pushing for NI to become it's own country.



Not sure about that anymore, certainly there is still a fair amount of loyalists who don't see themselves as Irish. But there are a lot of people from a Unionist background that do see themselves as Irish or at least Northern Irish as well as being British.

Plus the demographics are rapidly changing in the North. Catholics will soon be the majority, granted not all of them will be nationalists desperate for a United Ireland. But a lot of them won't be locked into the idea of staying in the UK either if it doesn't make economic sense. Brexit i think has changed a lot of peoples minds on the subject.
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Yep
 
stevoc said:
I don't really see any scenario where Northern Ireland could sustain itself long term. I don't think an independent state is really a possibility from an economical or political point of view.

There are a lot of people in NI who want to stay in the UK and a lot who want to join Ireland. I don't imagine there are many who are pushing for NI to become it's own country.



Not sure about that anymore, certainly there is still a fair amount of loyalists who don't see themselves as Irish. But there are a lot of people from a Unionist background that do see themselves as Irish or at least Northern Irish as well as being British.

Plus the demographics are rapidly changing in the North. Catholics will soon be the majority, granted not all of them will be nationalists desperate for a United Ireland. But a lot of them won't be locked into the idea of staying in the UK either if it doesn't make economic sense. Brexit i think has changed a lot of peoples minds on the subject.
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Really? Assuming they were in the EU then surely they could do well economically, especially if the UK go. English speaking and cheaper than ROI for miltinationals. Obviously a big period of transition would be needed given the amount of money and jobs the UK has to pump in.

There's no way ROI will absorb NI anyway. Dublin and Cork are already paying for the rest of the country, we can't afford to do it for another 1.8m people now or in the long term. So they either stay with the UK out of the EU or go away from the UK and into the EU.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Really? Assuming they were in the EU then surely they could do well economically, especially if the UK go. English speaking and cheaper than ROI for miltinationals. Obviously a big period of transition would be needed given the amount of money and jobs the UK has to pump in.
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I won't pretend to be an economic expert mate and predict how Northern Ireland's economy would do as an independent state as opposed to part of a United Ireland. But i don't see how it would even come about, there's no one in NI pushing for independence. Pretty much everyone is either stay in the UK or join Ireland.

There's no way ROI will absorb NI anyway. Dublin and Cork are already paying for the rest of the country, we can't afford to do it for another 1.8m people now or in the long term. So they either stay with the UK out of the EU or go away from the UK and into the EU.
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Well that will be up to people in the south if a referendum ever happens. If NI were to join Ireland i think the hope would be that the north's economy grows to the point where it either sustains itself or even contributes. Currently the Northern Ireland economy has been in a long stagnation compared to the Republic. Obviously thats mostly down to 30+ years of Civil War and being a fairly remote and ignored part of the UK.
 
The Tories have ruined this country. The last 8 years have been a disaster. They are about to top it off.
 
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