Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Specifically what is it about the stage 1 and 2 agreements that you think make the Norway deal possible?

I've seen you cite this before but never explained why.
It commits to no hard border in Ireland and no regulatory diverge of NI to the rest of the country. Aka, no regulatory difference between the UK/Republic of Ireland (the EU).
 
It commits to no hard border in Ireland and no regulatory diverge of NI to the rest of the country. Aka, no regulatory difference between the UK/Republic of Ireland (the EU).

It commits to no hard border on the proviso the UK govt come up with a workable and viable solution to avoiding it. Nothing to suggest anyone has that. This is what makes Corbyn's Brexit just as pie in the sky as May's. Both rely on the magical "somehow", whereby we "somehow" resolve the Northern Ireland issue and hey presto we'll have an agreement.
 
Yeah, but he'll have 5 years until the next election for voters to get over it.

Unless party polling falls to the point where there's a vote of no confidence against him and his government gets ousted. Something that'll be even more likely if he doesn't have a majority and has to work alongside the Lib Dems or SNP.

Voter fear over immigration has been fostered by the DM and the like for decades, and isn't going to disappear after Brexit. If Corbyn's intention is to essentially lie to people at the moment and placate and promise to address those fears over immigration, before doing nothing at all when he's actually elected, then he'll probably piss of a lot of people.
 
It commits to no hard border on the proviso the UK govt come up with a workable and viable solution to it. Nothing to suggest anyone has that. This is what makes Corbyn's Brexit just as pie in the sky as May's. Both rely on the magical "somehow", whereby we "somehow" resolve the Northern Ireland issue and hey presto we'll have an agreement.
There's no such provisions in the agreement, that is a UK cabinet issue and will be rejected by the EU when they propose maxfac. At which point the UK will have to choose between Norway+ and no deal. And the UK can't choose no deal.
 
Unless party polling falls to the point where there's a vote of no confidence against him and his government gets ousted. Something that'll be even more likely if he doesn't have a majority and has to work alongside the Lib Dems or SNP.

Voter fear over immigration has been fostered by the DM and the like for decades, and isn't going to disappear after Brexit. If Corbyn's intention is to essentially lie to people at the moment and placate and promise to address those fears over immigration, before doing nothing at all when he's actually elected, then he'll probably piss of a lot of people.
That'll be a good thing for Labour. They'll soak up SNP and LD votes like the last coalition did.
 
That'll be a good thing for Labour. They'll soak up SNP and LD votes like the last coalition did.

That's no guarantee and would depend on a myriad of factors pertaining to the performance of his government. The last time out the Tories gained from a coalition, but the Lib Dems were seen as having betrayed their voters and Cameron's government weren't particularly disliked considering they were the incumbent one. I'm talking here if a Corbyn government starts to poll in shockingly low figures for a current government because pro-Brexit Labour voters feel betrayed and lied to because their version of Brexit was ignored by someone who'd said he would implement it.
 
There's no such provisions in the agreement, that is a UK cabinet issue and will be rejected by the EU when they propose maxfac. At which point the UK will have to choose between Norway+ and no deal. And the UK can't choose no deal.

But it doesn't commit to no hard border in Ireland at all. Phase 1 agreement simply says:
"The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to the avoidance of a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls."
"The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border."

Everyone wants to avoid a hard border, but there is not an agreement on how to do so. You appear to be under the impression a lack of agreement on what can solve the border issue will be the default position of no hard border, which doesn't make sense. If no agreement on the Irish border will result in their not being a hard border then what exactly is the point of discussions on the subject if the breakdown of talks would instantly resolve it?
 
But it doesn't commit to no hard border in Ireland at all. Phase 1 agreement simply says:
"The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to the avoidance of a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls."
"The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border."

Everyone wants to avoid a hard border, but there is not an agreement on how to do so. You appear to be under the impression a lack of agreement on what can solve the border issue will be the default position of no hard border, which doesn't make sense. If no agreement on the Irish border will result in their not being a hard border then what exactly is the point of discussions on the subject if the breakdown of talks would instantly resolve it?
That's the stage 2 wording, recall meaning it committed to those things in stage 1.
 
By certain demographics. Others went to the Tories, the same will happen in another coalition, but with different demographics.

Not a guarantee by any means.

And a coalition was one possibility I was talking about. It's hypothetical Labour could end up in a majority. And while it may be for their short-term gain currently, I'm not sure how it'll factor in over the long-term. If Corbyn and Labour want to build a lasting socialist movement, then being seen as betraying a significant portion of their voters the moment they step into office by staying in the CU isn't going to bode well for them.
 
That's the stage 2 wording, recall meaning it committed to those things in stage 1.

But this still doesn't make sense. All phase one says on the border issue is, effectively, 'be nice if..'.

Besides it still doesn't explain why you think no deal on everything, including the Irish border issue, will result in the default position of there being no hard border in Ireland. This is illogical.
 
But this still doesn't make sense. All phase one says on the border issue is, effectively, 'be nice if..'.

Besides it still doesn't explain why you think no deal on everything, including the Irish border issue, will result in the default position of there being no hard border in Ireland. This is illogical.
49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the allisland economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.

50. In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.

guarantee and be nice if aren't the same
 
So from 4 different posters over the past week or so ,who gave up the ghost I'll await the answers to:

1. How do you have a Norway style deal without being in the CU/SM .
2. What are the 5 benefits of having a Norway style deal
3. What are the benefits of leaving the EU other than not imposing tariffs on Japanese cars, which is already agreed but won't be when the UK leave.
4. Who would Stanley have voted for in the 2015 GE.

Weird.
 
Is freedom of labour the same as freedom of movement btw? What about services?
Freedom of movement likely wouldn't end no matter the Brexit, we're not going to shoot ourselves in the foot twice by making people get tourist visas, freedom of labour means EU nationals have the right to work here without a workers visa but has little to do with travel arrangements as we're not in Schengen. Services wouldn't be required to uphold the Good Friday agreement, which is the reason we have to go with Norway+ in the first place (you don't check services at borders), so idk what happens there, there's no indication which way that goes.
 
Last edited:
It's in the Single Market and the 4 freedoms apply . You mean Jeremy's hoping to negotiate his own deals.
Yes, the freedoms will apply. That's why the far right of the conservative party is throwing a fit and wants a no deal exit.

By the way the NI border extract you quoted only applies to NI.
read it again
 
Yes, the freedoms will apply. That's why the far right of the conservative party is throwing a fit and wants a no deal exit.

But Corbyn said he would leave the Single Market. Doesn't add up.
And if it's not in the custom's union it has to have a border with custom's checks.

See where we're going with this.

read it again

Meant to say the EU only accept that NI is covered by the backstop (EU backstop) - the EU are not accepting the UK version.
 
Last edited:
As long as we operate under neoliberalism, the wins for nominally left-wing parties aren't wins - they're ways to stop the bleeding temporarily even as the monster on the other side grows.

Your next post, about the privilege of sitting out:
FT_17.05.10_Voter-turnout.png

So that entire rant about Harambe and Stein and privilege - how d'you square that view of history with basic facts about voters?

What about looking at the policies of the Obama presidency, in handling the financial crisis: https://jacobinmag.com/2017/12/obama-foreclosure-crisis-wealth-inequality
Screen-Shot-2017-12-07-at-10.25.17-AM.png

Win!
Good post.

Even with the Brexit Leave campaign which was of course a racist and xenophobic there was a surprising level of anti EU vote in the British Asian vote.
A number of jurisdictions with large South Asian populations delivered Leave votes, including Luton (56.5% Leave), Hillingdon (56.4% Leave), Slough (54.3% Leave) and Bradford (54.2% Leave). All have South Asian populations of 25% and above. It’s not unreasonable to think that such Leave votes could not have been delivered without a significant number of Asian voters opting for Brexit.

And more recently released ward-level data from the West London boroughs of Ealing and Hounslow provides strong support for the idea that Asian voters were more inclined towards Leave than the polls suggested. In these two multi-ethnic boroughs, non-white ethnicity was associated with voting Leave, defying the wider national trend.

In both boroughs, the more prosperous, mainly white wards voted strongly in favour of Remain. The Asian areas, on the other hand, were much more evenly split between Remain and Leave (it’s also worth mentioning that the poorer, largely white areas containing council estates voted to Leave).
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/20/the-british-asian-vote-for-brexit-contains-a-few-surprises/

It's far more complicated than Seth and anarchist friends not taking part.
 
Where would the UK should there be any other leader PM Brexit? Idk, invent a parallel universe machine and find out.
I image it's the same universe where Paul vote for Cameron in 2015 doesn't lead to a referendum that brings the UK out the EU.
 
Where would the UK should there be any other leader PM Brexit? Idk, invent a parallel universe machine and find out.

Have a leader, from whichever party, who is sensible and rational and understands how the EU works and who stops wasting time posturing trying to boost his /her own career instead of the country's future, and makes a definitive decision.
 
Not really. It's just that all you've got is trying to make out that who people voted for previously has any relation to anything whatsoever, clearly angling to suggest Paul had no right to criticise Brexit because of how you thought he voted, same as the "didn't you vote Lib Dem?" aimed at me which apparently means I'm not allowed an opinion on the matter either.

It's not confusing, it's just shit and all you have.
 
Not really. It's just that all you've got is trying to make out that who people voted for previously has any relation to anything whatsoever, clearly angling to suggest Paul had no right to criticise Brexit because of how you thought he voted, same as the "didn't you vote Lib Dem?" aimed at me which apparently means I'm not allowed an opinion on the matter either.

It's not confusing, it's just shit and all you have.
I've never said you can't have a opinion(Although if any mods are listening if I could have that type of power it would be great, thanks). Just that your always moaning about how Labour are unelectable yet at the same time your actively voting against them getting into power. I would take the moaning more seriously if you were like one of the progress lot who for some reason still vote Labour.
 
Stans universe is the most legit so far

But as I said yesterday, it didn't happen and if I had voted Tory and were still living in one the safest Tory seats in the country, it would have made no difference.
I would have made a considered decision , probably I would have because I would have known what Corbyn was like but Labour had never ever won the seat where I lived. If I'd have thought about it and considered that there was a risk maybe I wouldn't. Who knows?

I didn't vote for him in 2010 either, I wasn't living in the UK for either of the elections.
 
Specifically what is it about the stage 1 and 2 agreements that you think make the Norway deal possible?

I've seen you cite this before but never explained why.
Because Britain is already a signatory and legislatively bound by the EEA.

www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreement/eea-basic-features

www.ft.com/content/16b50be8-161c-38d3-83b8-14b04faa9580

The only problem with the EEA is its essentially committing to movement of goods, persons, services and capital. All of which are a "softer" brexit. I wonder how Switzerland controls migration? Surely theres something in that.

It also makes Britain free to seek trade agreements on its own.

Theres also a cost to Britain, but it might work for a few years until theres a GE and a government gets time to undo 50 years of legislation and agreements.
 
Because Britain is already a signatory and legislatively bound by the EEA.

www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreement/eea-basic-features

www.ft.com/content/16b50be8-161c-38d3-83b8-14b04faa9580

The only problem with the EEA is its essentially committing to movement of goods, persons, services and capital. All of which are a "softer" brexit. I wonder how Switzerland controls migration? Surely theres something in that.

It also makes Britain free to seek trade agreements on its own.

Theres also a cost to Britain, but it might work for a few years until theres a GE and a government gets time to undo 50 years of legislation and agreements.

Switzerland abides to FOM.

Also this might help you understand that what you're suggesting is not as easy as you think

http://lawyersforbritain.org/brexit...rt-6-can-we-stay-in-the-eea-without-agreement
 
Last edited:
Switzerland abides to FOM.

Also this might help you understand that what you're suggesting is not as easy as you think

http://lawyersforbritain.org/brexit...rt-6-can-we-stay-in-the-eea-without-agreement
But dont you have to apply to Switzerland if you want to move there?

Thanks will have a read.

Edit: so the work that needs to be done is around defining the "personality" of the UK post exit so that the "machinery" of the EEA still applies? (if thats what Britain wants for the near future)

As far as requiring the approval of the member states, thats still a requirement for any agreement on exit, and will still require writing legislation defining the relationship post exit. Approval (not sure if ratification is the right way to describe it) is still required from all EU states.

So it cant be any harder than whats happening now.

The purpose of getting into / onto the EEA is just buying time to work out a way to handle Brexit properly without just crashing out with no deal whatsoever.

I assumed that the EEA was an option regardless, obviously not.
 
Last edited: