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These are significantly different times. Quality of life is far and far higher than back then and economic relations were not as intertwined between countries as they now are. It's just highly unrealistic to even think about a world war in Europe.
Tell me more about what's happening with the EU right now...
He really doesn't get it. That when you fall out with your biggest trading partner both Import and Export that it has dire consequences for both sides. Add to that the racial hatred that this vote is based on is even more heartbreaking.
I meant to say 'as they are now'. Already changed my post lol.
Aye, if I was British I'd be feeling pretty crap about my country today. More than all the practical implications, I'd just feel like I was living in a very regressive, fractured place that has sentenced itself to a much dimmer future.
My point is this... Economic interdependence creates a scenario in which warfare between 2 economically interdependent nations is not feasible because both sides lose. Breaking up the interdependence means breaking up the security of mutually assured destruction. This, coupled with a new rise of right-wing political leaders and the inevitable economic downturn that a break up in interdependence will cause is rhyming quite well with history's previous recipes for disaster.
I do get it but again is my opinion and the numbers are in UK's favor and Germany, France will have to deal with UK or they lose $150 billions in exports when the exports from UK for both countries are around $70B.
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/
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When the nationalism is becoming more powerful than it has been in a long time in pretty much every European country (bar strangely enough, Germany) all bets are off. A World War is quite unlikely, but with each victory for the right populist movements, it becomes a bit more likely.
Tell that to the companies which will move their offices from London to Paris, Frankfurt etc.
So in your scenario, we negotiate trade agreements with all 27 and keep going as before, maintain the status quo, correct? Why vote leave then?
A lot of rehashing of posts here to see who can sound the most intelligently pissed off about the decision.
Right or wrong it's done, Britain has survived much worse, and will survive this, wallowing in self pity will only make the recovery longer and more painful.
Right or wrong it's done, Britain has survived much worse, and will survive this, wallowing in self pity will only make the recovery longer and more painful.
Maybe 0.00005% likely. Not debate-worth likely. Far too many young Europeans who see themselves as a world citizen rather than a proud Frenchman or a proud Englishman. Just last november Europe showed huge solidarity to France concerning the Paris attacks or even before that 'je suis Charlie'. Talking about a world war is unnecessary scaremongering.
BBC: EU Brexit referendum: UK 'must not delay leaving'
Anyone who thinks the rest of Europe need or want us, look at what been's said by the EU bosses today. They are furious about it and will make absolutely no concessions.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36618317
Nobody expected the Spanish Inquisition.
Europe was so much more violent back then. That doesn't mean much for this era.
What if Airbus, Morgan Stanley, Nissan and Toyota all decide to move to the continent? The power balance moves drastically.
Edit if you add JLR into that we are well and truly done.
There was a good doc on the TV a while back about workers' conditions on tea plantations in India. Shocking. Twinings was named as one of the companies benefiting from it. I have sought out Fair Trade tea ever since.
There's a big difference between the EEC and the EU. There's definite credibility in wanting a return to the former.
There will be trade, but GB won't be the partner to dictate the terms as they see fit.
The UK doesn't import all the goods for fun. An example: When your local Nissan or Ford or Mini plant wants to produce cars, it needs components manufactured on the continent. Your win-loss scenario bears no substance.
Can the UK make a u-turn on this vote? If they can see that it has been an absolute feck up, and nothing good will come of it, can they just turn around and say it doesn't count? Or is it just set in stone now and this is what's going to happen no matter what?
Not really. The referendum yesterday showed the contrary. Most of the Leave propaganda was exactly that: we're proud Englishmen who don't want to be ruled from others, and feck the others, with the occasional 'we give 350m pounds per second to EU'.
World war is obviously a long shot, but it is quite sad to see that after more than 50 years of the western civilization going toward the left (more human rights especially for discriminated groups like LGBT, women becoming more educated and more powerful, an Afro American becoming president of US etc etc), now it seems to be going the other way around with the nationalist and religious movements taking power.
Just look at the most powerful states in the world:
- US: it is probable that a fascist will become president
- China: China
- Japan: alright
- Germany - alright, and actually playing the role of the savior for many things.
- UK - a decisive far right victory yesterday
- France - A far right wing politician being favorite to win the next election
- Italy - alright for the moment
- India: far right prime minister
- Russia: far right
- Israel: far right
- Turkey: far right
Even less powerful countries in Europe like Poland, Hungary, Austria (a far right politician almost became president), Serbia and so on are moving again toward far right and nationalist movements are getting stronger than they have been in a very long time. And that is problem, considering that both far left and far right are extremely dangerous, but one group is gaining momentum based on lies, national/religious movements and racism.
If the world continues like this, it will be a bad world in my opinion.
IMF's Christine Lagarde hopes for 'smooth transition'
They will be brought into line by lobbies like the the German car industry and bodies like the IMF
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-06-24/imfs-christine-lagarde-hopes-for-smooth-transition/
John Simpson said on the BBC earlier (he covered Britain joining the EEC) that he always found the EU elite to be like the higher ups at FIFA, he made it clear that he wasn't accusing them of corruption, but said that they are somewhat self satisfied and detached from reality a bit.
I just don't understand. Why do we again and again and again and again and again and again and again (you get the point by now) let politicians get away with blatant lies?
Ironically, a Latvian told me the other day mass emigration of young people from there has effectively crippled that country. Huge numbers have come here for work but find it impossible to make enough extra money to be able to send any home. Meanwhile, as she tells it, Latvia has become a stagnant backwater ful of old people.
Being part of the EEC means making payments to the EU the leavers promised to use for the NHS. People like to refer to Norway. Maybe should look up what the relationship between Norway and the EU entails...
We have more to fear from the white, uneducated American underbelly. Talk about size...
We need to get a better understanding of what triggers the rise of right-wing movements instead of just shoving away Trump-supporters as idiots for example. These people clearly have serious issues with the status quo which we need to address.
Juppé is favorite not Le Pen.
France, Germany and Holland sure, but how are you going to convince the other 24 member states to vote in favor of a new trade deal with the UK? They would need something out of it too.
It's a large number that the EU exports to us but it still only amounts to 10% of total EU exports. They will keep our business anyway in the short term because we don't have an alternative and would probably keep a lot of it long-term anyway just because of the short lead time on products, many business need that option and would pay the tariffs.
Yeah sure. The EU will swallow all british terms, and let you have all the cherries. Keep on believing. The german car industry will happily take over all the costs when other EEC members want to renegotiate their deals to UK-for-free standard...
Well, maybe they don't. If Germany, Holland, France will profit from a new trade deal that won't hurt the others, would they really annoy France and Germany by not going ahead with it even though they lose nothing?
I don't fear the English underbelly. They are all just hot air and bluster. They just sadden me. America if it votes Trump and Russia frighten me.
I am not saying that the British will make anyone swallow terms. When it comes to it, it will be in everyone's best interests to make it as smooth as possible. Granted the big egos in Brussels that thought they couldn't be touched might be spitting the dummy now but they will have to behave like adults when it comes to brokering a deal that will have huge ramifications for the whole world.
We need all 27 members to say yes. One veto and the agreement is done. That is a system we initiated so that we could counter most of the federal Europe plans. It could now come back to bite us.
What would these opposing countries gain by opposing a trade agreement if France and Germany, the EU's 2 main players, gain from it and actively push for it? Would they really annoy France and Germany if it doesn't hurt them anyway?
But this is what campaign leave is about. No more payments, no more obligations, just a free market. Not going to happen.
Of course there is mutual interest to avoid collateral damage as far as possible. The problem is several key positions of the Brexit faction being inacceptable from an EU standpoint
I love the blind optimism
I'd wager this would be anything but smooth. Infact it does not even have to be hard. EU nations can just drag their feet in negotiating the trade deals...which will leave a host of UK companies in the lurch. UK has absolutely no leverage to warrant a smooth transition.I don't think annoying France and Germany would be an issue for many members. These countries also have politicians fighting in Brussels to get the best deals for their own voters. I somehow don't think the people of Hungary, Austria, Greece, Italy, etc would be all too happy about Britain washing their hands of the migration crisis they are going through and then still getting our own way on trade. We'd have to offer something in return.