Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Classical Mechanic]

What about their family? The wife might not earn so much. The kids will need schooling. Are they allowed in too?

Of course their family can come, immediate family anyway. It is a way of getting talent into the country and that will add value to the economy ultimately. It is the low skilled workers with lots of dependents that are unappealling.

We need to retain Eastern European immigration which an immediate threat as they are our most productive citizens due to being generally young, childless and leaving the country after a period. They pay tax and create low burden on the state.

@Rams

After a period on economic contraction and adjustment new markets will open up. Do you think that the UK is incapable of recovering from Brexit?

 

[devilish]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...n-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu

Spain drops plan to impose veto if Scotland tries to join EU

 

[Stanley Road]

What other solution would you propose?

Let them go out of business

Will I get an eu subsidy if I lose my job?

I'd really like to see the real price of goods without subsidies, what things really cost without slave labour, what the world would be like if we let banks fail, what tariff free trade for the whole world would look like.

 

[berbatrick]

Let them go out of business

Will I get an eu subsidy if I lose my job?

I'd really like to see the real price of goods without subsidies, what things really cost without slave labour, what the world would be like if we let banks fail, what tariff free trade for the whole world would look like.

Without slave labour effectively means a whole deal of regulation.

 

[Tarrou]

Let them go out of business

Will I get an eu subsidy if I lose my job?

I'd really like to see the real price of goods without subsidies, what things really cost without slave labour, what the world would be like if we let banks fail, what tariff free trade for the whole world would look like.

Well tariff free trade would give access to slave labour to lots of British companies surely?

Edit: and just to clarify, I don't necessarily disagree with you, just highlighting that the solutions aren't always as simple as "free trade".

 

[Bury Red]

After a period on economic contraction and adjustment new markets will open up. Do you think that the UK is incapable of recovering from Brexit?

The UK will recover from this act of stupidity and self sabotage, most likely by rejoining the EU on worse conditions than those we exited with in 10 years or so. In the mean time I'm pretty sure my pension will take a kicking at the point of my career when it needs to be performing at its best to guarantee I have a comfortable retirement and don't become a burden on the state. The affect on my daughter's generation, just starting out in their careers is likely to be equally devastating as the already shallow pools of opportunity in front of them dry up. The affect on those less well off than us will most likely be far, far worse and the social divide which is at least part of the cause of this whole mess is likely to get a hell of a lot wider.

People recover from cancer, TB, meningitis etc but they're not queuing up volunteering to go through it just for the hell of it.

 

[Ultimate Grib]

Cost you more? You simply don't know. Both the remain and brexit campaigns were full of spurious shit like this. You won't actually know until the deal is done, and the effects are measured over a period afterwards.

As to the last point, pure conjecture. It's like saying the poor working class don't contribute anything and therefore shouldn't have a voice?

It's already costing us more because of I N F L A T I O N!

We are an importing nation and everything imported is costing more. We had a negative trade balance of about £180bn in 2015 this is why the government is trying very hard to push exports during this period of Brexit purgatory so the blow to the economy is softened somewhat. This is why every third ad on TV and radio is "Exporting is great".

Every trip and holiday abroad is costing more.

Every drop of fuel and everything linked to it is costing more.

I could go on and on about everything that is costing more but hopefully you get the gist.

This is already happening, so not when the deal will be done but now!

 

[Ultimate Grib]

Let them go out of business

Will I get an eu subsidy if I lose my job?

I'd really like to see the real price of goods without subsidies, what things really cost without slave labour, what the world would be like if we let banks fail, what tariff free trade for the whole world would look like.

Incentives are required when governments push certain policies, ro give people a push into abiding by them. Not so long ago the government was paying £5000 towards the cost of buying plug-in electric cars. They were paying £5000 towards the cost of businesses getting superfast broadband. They provide numerous other grants for small businesses and large ones. Why should farmers be any different?

 

[Wibble]

I guess we could sell lots of cluster bombs to the rest of the world Wibs!

What? Even more?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

The UK will recover from this act of stupidity and self sabotage, most likely by rejoining the EU on worse conditions than those we exited with in 10 years or so. In the mean time I'm pretty sure my pension will take a kicking at the point of my career when it needs to be performing at its best to guarantee I have a comfortable retirement and don't become a burden on the state. The affect on my daughter's generation, just starting out in their careers is likely to be equally devastating as the already shallow pools of opportunity in front of them dry up. The affect on those less well off than us will most likely be far, far worse and the social divide which is at least part of the cause of this whole mess is likely to get a hell of a lot wider.

People recover from cancer, TB, meningitis etc but they're not queuing up volunteering to go through it just for the hell of it.

I do love a good buryred metaphor with the hyperbole turned up to 11!

I have faith in the UK economy and people. I don't think we will go back to the EU with begging bowl in hand as you suggest. I think it is more likely the EU will break up completely than the UK rejoin in the next 25 years.

What are these worse terms that you think we will have to accept if we rejoin anyway?

 

[Bury Red]

I do love a good buryred metaphor with the hyperbole turned up to 11!

I have faith in the UK economy and people. I don't think we will go back to the EU with begging bowl in hand as you suggest. I think it is more likely the EU will break up completely than the UK rejoin in the next 25 years.

What are these worse terms that you think we will have to accept if we rejoin anyway?

No more rebates, fewer votes giving us a smaller voice and most likely full acceptance of schengen. We had the best deal of anyone sitting at the European table, no way we would get the same hand again if we approached them seeking re-entry.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

No more rebates, fewer votes giving us a smaller voice and most likely full acceptance of schengen. We had the best deal of anyone sitting at the European table, no way we would get the same hand again if we approached them seeking re-entry.

I agree that we had a good deal and leaving was broadly pointless and damaging in the short to medium term. But here we are.

 

[Rams]

@Rams

After a period on economic contraction and adjustment new markets will open up. Do you think that the UK is incapable of recovering from Brexit?

Let me look in my crystal ball...

I don't think recover is the right word, but I think things will never be the same.
Firstly, I think the U.K. will dissolve. I think the Scots will become independent and Ireland will unite. Then there's the question whether we remain in the single market or under what terms we will have access to it.
If we are no longer part of the single market then I predict a recession as consumer goods become more expensive (we're not suddenly going to stop buying German goods) and the economy shrinks. What's left of the U.K. will probably become a tax haven. But it will become less influential and accelerate our role as bit part players on the World stage. Meanwhile, the divisions in society will only widen as the gap between rich & poor widens. The notion that we will open up trade with the rest of the World to compensate not being part of the single market is pure fantasy. We still need to protect our economy and we don't have much we can export anyway.

 

[Sultan]

"Take back control"

"Make America great again"

"Take back control"

"Make Britain great again"

The Brexiteers are reminding me of a certain group of individuals who occupy the WH. Ramblings and mere slogans of politicians with personality disorders.

 

[Sultan]

I just can't see how a deal can be achieved within 2 years. It takes longer for a couple with a few kids to achieve a divorce settlement here in the UK.

 

[Sultan]

Seems the hard Brexiteers (those within government and the likes of Farage) are wanting to implement or copy policies Trump government is trying to establish. Basically, a hard Brexit that allows Britain to become a low-tax, low-regulation economy. They hardly care what taxes support. They'll not be sending their kids to state schools and very likely have private health insurance. They'll not suffer from any possible downturns.

 

[Kentonio]

Let them go out of business

Will I get an eu subsidy if I lose my job?

I'd really like to see the real price of goods without subsidies, what things really cost without slave labour, what the world would be like if we let banks fail, what tariff free trade for the whole world would look like.

Are you sure you want to see that? Because what an unregulated free market actually looks like is giant companies eating up smaller companies and monopolizing markets until you have no small providers left, and the customer has very little choice unless they want to pay twice as much for something as the giant company is selling for. And of course those giant companies don't really care about things like the environment, or workers rights or the effect of their policies on local communities because they're companies not governments.

It would be a very grey and bleak future.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Let me look in my crystal ball...

I don't think recover is the right word, but I think things will never be the same.
Firstly, I think the U.K. will dissolve. I think the Scots will become independent and Ireland will unite. Then there's the question whether we remain in the single market or under what terms we will have access to it.
If we are no longer part of the single market then I predict a recession as consumer goods become more expensive (we're not suddenly going to stop buying German goods) and the economy shrinks. What's left of the U.K. will probably become a tax haven. But it will become less influential and accelerate our role as bit part players on the World stage. Meanwhile, the divisions in society will only widen as the gap between rich & poor widens. The notion that we will open up trade with the rest of the World to compensate not being part of the single market is pure fantasy. We still need to protect our economy and we don't have much we can export anyway.

The UK breaking up will be good for England. Northern Ireland especially is a political and economic millstone around our necks. Their budget deficit is frightening and one three jobs there are public sector to support their failing economy (the UK wide level of public sector jobs is less than 1/5) If Ireland want to absorb that problem then we should snap their hands off. The Scottish economy is suffering at the moment since the collapse in the price of oil and subsidies from Westminster are at record levels. Then you have the other core economic sector in Scotland which is finance largely based in Edinburgh. This sector is dependent on trade with England. That sector fears independence much more than Brexit and speculation of 'indyref2' has already seen investment fall and the first businesses have started relocating to England. To illustrate: Scotland are more dependent on trade with England than the UK is with the EU. Vast swathes of their economy, this is true for NI and Wales too, is dependent on trade with England and if they the leave the UK those businesses and job will come to the England. Beyond the symbolism of the breakup of Great Britain I am curious as to what you are worried about on that count?

I disagree with you on your point that the loss of the single market cannot be made up over time. The UK will adapt, inovate and prevail. The single market isn't some magic guarantee of economic success, that should be plainly evident by looking at the economic performace of most members of your single market EUtopia in recent history.

In fact I would bet you now that the UK will not perform much worse over the next five years than the French economy has performed since 2012. Also that unemployment will not reach the levels seen in France today.

 

[Full bodied red]

Well, besides cars & power tools Germany exports nothing to the UK. Well, you do have companies like Beiersdorf and Bayer that sell all kinds consumer brands found in every household in the U.K., but apart from that noth... oh yeah there's the electronic giants like Siemens & Bosch etc who do a roaring trade in the U.K. market, but apart fro.. and the big industrial companies like Thyssen Krupp, BASF and Continental... and you've got mega financial institutions like Deutsche Bank and Allianz, or even your sport clothing fron Adidas.. but apart from that you couldn't say that the Germans do that well in the U.K.

OK...Good list...Just checked again and it seems we don't have any of that stuff in our house or use those service providers.

Then again, the French do have a feeling that their own goods and services are the best ( yes, I know they aren't, but that's the French ) so we still have a full range of French grown or made products, or French labels stuck on Chinese made stuff, to choose from, and which are usually chepaer than their German equivalents.

 

[Stanley Road]

Are you sure you want to see that? Because what an unregulated free market actually looks like is giant companies eating up smaller companies and monopolizing markets until you have no small providers left, and the customer has very little choice unless they want to pay twice as much for something as the giant company is selling for. And of course those giant companies don't really care about things like the environment, or workers rights or the effect of their policies on local communities because they're companies not governments.

It would be a very grey and bleak future.

I don't mind paying the real value of something no, the same way I don't mind paying 42% tax and having good services. Its a british mindset that wants everything good for free

 

[Stanley Road]

OK...Good list...Just checked again and it seems we don't have any of that stuff in our house or use those service providers.

Then again, the French do have a feeling that their own goods and services are the best ( yes, I know they aren't, but that's the French ) so we still have a full range of French grown or made products, or French labels stuck on Chinese made stuff, to choose from, and which are usually chepaer than their German equivalents.

we have a bosch hoover and its shit, expensive too. Our 2nd no name hoover is great, 2000+ watt and half the price.

 

[Wibble]

OK...Good list...Just checked again and it seems we don't have any of that stuff in our house or use those service providers.

Then again, the French do have a feeling that their own goods and services are the best ( yes, I know they aren't, but that's the French ) so we still have a full range of French grown or made products, or French labels stuck on Chinese made stuff, to choose from, and which are usually chepaer than their German equivalents.

Sample size of one. I'm convinced.

 

[Stanley Road]

Every trip and holiday abroad is costing more.

Go on holiday somewhere where you get more for your pound.

Leave the car at home and get the bike out

1st world problems

 

[sullydnl]

Fairly sure this is more economically complicated than "I don't have German goods in my house so we don't actually need German goods as a nation".

Also, given the UK is a first world state, "first world problems" are rather important to your econony. It's not like your society is built on sparse, spartan essentials.

 

[Kentonio]

I don't mind paying the real value of something no, the same way I don't mind paying 42% tax and having good services. Its a british mindset that wants everything good for free

Subsidies aren't all about the price of the good, when it comes to things like farming those subsidies allow a lot of small diverse farmers to exist where as in a totally free market they would inevitably be swallowed up or driven out of business by mega-farms with much bigger economies of scale. That could have a huge impact on local areas and communities and on the environment.

 

[redshaw]

Germany is top of most European countries that they import from and some by a large margin. The rest of Europe and a weak Euro is more important to Germany than the UK no matter how much we import from them.

Germany top export countries are US and France and France are far higher than the UK. UK is third to fourth tied with a tiny country called Holland. We're not the biggest or the second biggest and the rest of Europe far outstrip us. We're talking about 500bn to our 80-90bn leaving out France and Holland.

What could be more of a factor is UK leaning toward non german cars in the future and this having a knock on effect in the media between US and so on.

 

[Rams]

The UK breaking up will be good for England. Northern Ireland especially is a political and economic millstone around our necks. Their budget deficit is frightening and one three jobs there are public sector to support their failing economy (the UK wide level of public sector jobs is less than 1/5) If Ireland want to absorb that problem then we should snap their hands off. The Scottish economy is suffering at the moment since the collapse in the price of oil and subsidies from Westminster are at record levels. Then you have the other core economic sector in Scotland which is finance largely based in Edinburgh. This sector is dependent on trade with England. That sector fears independence much more than Brexit and speculation of 'indyref2' has already seen investment fall and the first businesses have started relocating to England. To illustrate: Scotland are more dependent on trade with England than the UK is with the EU. Vast swathes of their economy, this is true for NI and Wales too, is dependent on trade with England and if they the leave the UK those businesses and job will come to the England. Beyond the symbolism of the breakup of Great Britain I am curious as to what you are worried about on that count?

I disagree with you on your point that the loss of the single market cannot be made up over time. The UK will adapt, inovate and prevail. The single market isn't some magic guarantee of economic success, that should be plainly evident by looking at the economic performace of most members of your single market EUtopia in recent history.

In fact I would bet you now that the UK will not perform much worse over the next five years than the French economy has performed since 2012. Also that unemployment will not reach the levels seen in France today.

I said that recovery is the wrong word. Nothing will change in the sense that we'll still be buying the same products from the US, Germany and Japan for example, as they are the global brands all over the world and not just the EU. You see, it's not matter of making up loss from the single market as on the whole the U.K. is an import market anyway and the U.K. still has plenty of arms to sell to the Middle East anyway.

 

[Rams]

OK...Good list...Just checked again and it seems we don't have any of that stuff in our house or use those service providers.

Then again, the French do have a feeling that their own goods and services are the best ( yes, I know they aren't, but that's the French ) so we still have a full range of French grown or made products, or French labels stuck on Chinese made stuff, to choose from, and which are usually chepaer than their German equivalents.

I'm not sure if you are aware of which brands are German brands. For example, I'll be flabbergasted if you don't have some shampoo from Wella, washing up liquid from Henkel and washing powder from Persil somewhere in your house. It's almost impossible not to unless you consciously go out avoiding purchasing German owned or produced household items!

 

[Massive Spanner]

Let me look in my crystal ball...

I don't think recover is the right word, but I think things will never be the same.
Firstly, I think the U.K. will dissolve. I think the Scots will become independent and Ireland will unite. Then there's the question whether we remain in the single market or under what terms we will have access to it.
If we are no longer part of the single market then I predict a recession as consumer goods become more expensive (we're not suddenly going to stop buying German goods) and the economy shrinks. What's left of the U.K. will probably become a tax haven. But it will become less influential and accelerate our role as bit part players on the World stage. Meanwhile, the divisions in society will only widen as the gap between rich & poor widens. The notion that we will open up trade with the rest of the World to compensate not being part of the single market is pure fantasy. We still need to protect our economy and we don't have much we can export anyway.

Can't see that happening for an incredibly long time. We can't afford the North. Honestly I'm not sure the UK were able to either, as soon as you cross the border the infrastructure is diabolical in contrast to Ireland.

How could we possibly absolve a country where 40% of employment is in the public sector and where the GDP per capital is less than half of our own? It's pure romanticism.

 

[Rams]

Germany is top of most European countries that they import from and some by a large margin. The rest of Europe and a weak Euro is more important to Germany than the UK no matter how much we import from them.

Germany top export countries are US and France and France are far higher than the UK. UK is third to fourth tied with a tiny country called Holland. We're not the biggest or the second biggest and the rest of Europe far outstrip us. We're talking about 500bn to our 80-90bn leaving out France and Holland.

What could be more of a factor is UK leaning toward non german cars in the future and this having a knock on effect in the media between US and so on.

The U.K. Is still a massive massive market to Germany. It will in the interests of German manufacturers to have a good trade deal with Britain.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I'm not sure if you are aware of which brands are German brands. For example, I'll be flabbergasted if you don't have some shampoo from Wella, washing up liquid from Henkel and washing powder from Persil somewhere in your house. It's almost impossible not to unless you consciously go out avoiding purchasing German owned or produced household items!

Aren't a lot of them manufactured in the UK though? Are you saying that the supply chain is entirely dependent on the EU? If the price of these household goods go up to a prohibitive level then that creates opportunites for new markets from non-EU countries and even domestic based companies no?

 

[Full bodied red]

Sample size of one. I'm convinced.

Good....Glad that I've been able to convince at least one of you.

But some other German stuff I'd forgotten about -

Half of the trains in the UK are owned by the German Government and nearly all London's famous red buses are owned by the German, French and Dutch governments.

And not to forget how much electricity generation in the UK is done by German companies.

Jeez....You guys are really, really fecked if Germany pull out of the UK or are priced out of the UK by tariffs.

 

[JPRouve]

The U.K. Is still a massive massive market to Germany. It will in the interests of German manufacturers to have a good trade deal with Britain.

They are also important for France. Funnily enough, the UK and France are great at the same things car and aeronautics parts(we can't build a car to save our lives though), we are and should be very close in that department because it's good for both of us, it's also two big countries that are naturally oriented to the sea and we should exploit that together. To be frank the situation bothers me, I don't understand why we try to compete when we should work together.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

No...Germany exports billions-worth every week.

What I'm saying is that despite a shit FXRate and potential tariffs, your everyday household bill won't increase because of stuff you HAVE to buy from Germany, even though the UK is Germany's second largest export market and annual UK trade with Germany is about €15 billion negative in favour of Germany.

So on two counts ( German goods will perhaps become too expensive and none are really everday necessities anyway ) lack of free trade between the UK and Germany will hurt Germany for sure. I don't know what the UK exports to Germany, I was hoping you'd tell us so that we could make a judgement whether the sales will dip without a trade deal....That's all.

From the UK in our house ? Off the top of my head, some gin, some English wine, some HiFi equipment, probably some fish landed in the UK, and that's about it, really. The diesel in the cars might be from the North Sea, certainly not from Germany or France.

Since yesterday I have a problem accessing the data but will let you know as soon as I can.

But we're not talking about just Germany, we're talking the whole of the EU which as a whole is the most important trading partner of the UK.
Off the top of head I can remember some of the data. (Very good memory)
In 2014 the biggest single export (worldwide) of Germany was cars representing 12% of all exports value $153bn.
UK's second biggest export is also cars representing around 9.4% of all exports value $40bn.
Notice the vast difference in the values
Now the Uk is a big market for German cars - 15% of cars produced in Germany go to the UK - ie 15% of 12% of all their exports, 1.8% of all German exports are cars to the UK . If the Uk suddenly stopped buying Germany cars it wouldn't be good for Germany but it wouldn't be catastrophic either.
As Germany produce cars towards the more luxury end of the market, if the British person had to pay 10% more they would not be so worried but it's not the people who can afford these items that are going to be hit the most.

The second biggest German export is vehicle parts - that's even more serious for the UK for their car industry.

Gold is Uk's biggest export, very slightly ahead of cars.
Like Germany the UK's biggest trading partner is the USA. The biggest market for cars produced by the UK is.... China.

Thus it's not as if they are not already selling to markets they are supposedly desperately seeking deals for. The problem is tariffs and how much it all costs.
Being a net importer, which Germany isn't, tariffs pose less of a problem whereas the Uk being a net importer means many more problems.

I could write a 1000 page essay on this and we haven't even got into logistic problems, organisational problems, financial services etc

Being facetious, the Uk want to sell chocolate cake to France, gold to the Gold Coast, lamb (95% of exports go to the EU) to NZ and Oz and no doubt refrigerators to Eskimos.

Saw an interview with a welsh sheep farmer on TV , said he voted to Leave because the EU is supposedly undemocratic and wanted his country back, he also realised his business would go bust without the EU subsidies and a tariff of 50% being slapped on his exports - but hey ho!

 

[PedroMendez]

Are you sure you want to see that? Because what an unregulated free market actually looks like is giant companies eating up smaller companies and monopolizing markets until you have no small providers left, and the customer has very little choice unless they want to pay twice as much for something as the giant company is selling for. And of course those giant companies don't really care about things like the environment, or workers rights or the effect of their policies on local communities because they're companies not governments.

It would be a very grey and bleak future.

well. thats just made up.
Subsidies or specific protection against foreign competitors are not the same things as regulation anyway.

 

[Mozza]

Of course their family can come, immediate family anyway. It is a way of getting talent into the country and that will add value to the economy ultimately. It is the low skilled workers with lots of dependents that are unappealling.

We need to retain Eastern European immigration which an immediate threat as they are our most productive citizens due to being generally young, childless and leaving the country after a period. They pay tax and create low burden on the state

Will they have to pay for schooling? What about health? Will they be entitled to benefits? If they lose their job will they be kicked out of the country?

How many low skilled migrants with laege numbers of dependents move here every year?

If nothing changes around migration numbers why the hell did we vote out?

 

[Full bodied red]

They are also important for France. Funnily enough, the UK and France are great at the same things car and aeronautics parts(we can't build a car to save our lives though), we are and should be very close in that department because it's good for both of us, it's also two big countries that are naturally oriented to the sea and we should exploit that together. To be frank the situation bothers me, I don't understand why we try to compete when we should work together.

I've got a Nissan - same company, I think, but built in Japan. Great car.....

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Will they have to pay for schooling? What about health? Will they be entitled to benefits? If they lose their job will they be kicked out of the country?

How many low skilled migrants with laege numbers of dependents move here every year?

If nothing changes around migration numbers why the hell did we vote out?

No, they would not have to pay out for schooling. I'm not sure what you are getting at here. Top rate tax payers are less likely to be a burden on the state, that is obvious. They are also likely to add more value to the economy per head too.

I agree with your last point. I think there will be a 25% reduction at most.

 

[Rams]

Aren't a lot of them manufactured in the UK though? Are you saying that the supply chain is entirely dependent on the EU? If the price of these household goods go up to a prohibitive level then that creates opportunites for new markets from non-EU countries and even domestic based companies no?

I'm not sure what argument you're trying to pick because I don't disagree with the things you are saying. But one thing not to forget is even if the manufacturing is done in the U.K. you still need to import raw materials for the manufacturing from the EU. BASF supplying chemicals to a British Unilever factory manufacturing under license of Henkel, for example. Supply chains can be very complicated.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I'm not sure what argument you're trying to pick because I don't disagree with the things you are saying. But one thing not to forget is even if the manufacturing is done in the U.K. you still need to import raw materials for the manufacturing from the EU. BASF supplying chemicals to a British Unilever factory manufacturing under license of Henkel, for example. Supply chains can be very complicated.

The point being that overtime either these German companies adapt to the new conditions to trade successfully with the UK or they are superceded by other EU, non EU or British based companies. The economy will adapt and Britain will return to growth with or without Germany being our number one import market.