Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
I can see where all you guys are coming from regarding which Merc you'll be able to afford ( my heart bleeds for you - how about a Jag ? ) or where Marmite is made, or having to start drinking inferior wines ( ever tried Argentinian Malbec - superb ) etc, etc.

But apart from raw materials, there is very, very little which the UK wants and / or needs which can't be manufactured in the UK or imported from countries outside the EU and which at the moment are prohibitively expensive because of EU tarifs. Same thing for the EU as well - most things currently bought from the UK can be sourced inside the EU.

My simple maths says the UK's Balance of Trade would be about $43 billion better off if that's what happens. And if it ends up with WTO tariffs, well the UK is going to be anywhere between 5% and 45% of $43 billion better off than the EU countries.

But if you guys think that Big Business in the EU is just going to shrug its shoulders and move on while the politicos in Brussels do their best to block trading deals, then I'll remind you of just how much in the pockets of Big Business ALL politicos are, even those in Brussels.

There's 2 very different issues there. On the EU goods being more expensive, sure. That's down to both regulatory standards and some protectionism. The EU certainly doesn't want China dumping vast quantities of below cost textiles into the EU market (which happened recently due to UK incompetence or fraud) and damaging European textiles companies. When we leave the EU we can certainly buy in some stuff cheaper. On the regulatory side though, our choice then becomes do we want to start buying in lower quality products which could well have been produced under substandard conditions and which don't carry the quality guarantees we've come to expect? Is that a price worth paying?

As for just replacing things made in the EU with things made locally, the question then becomes what was stopping us before? Either we can't do it as cheaply or we can't do it at all. If we can't do it as cheaply now then what's going to make it cheaper once we leave the EU and don't have tariff free imports on materials and parts? Again the only option is to reduce regulations and settle for substandard goods. So maybe we go back to kids toys made with lead based paints or cows fed on mashed up bits of other cows. Yay..
 
No...Not intentionally misleading.

I would have liked to confirm / correct what the $43 billion represented as a % of each country's exports, but didn't know the numbers, so thanks for adding them.

While I was waiting your response, I had a dig around for some numbers....Still not got the numbers I was looking for, but a few 'finds' and comments below -

Germany - after the USA, the UK is Germany's most profitable export market with a surplus on trade with the UK at £43 billion. As most of Germany's exports are high quality / high value hard products, not services, then I wonder how may other EU countries can afford to buy all those expensive ( and desirable ) cars and machine tools to make up for the reduced sales to the UK ?

Netherlands - the UK is their second most profitable export market with a surplus of $21 billion surplus. I sanyone else inside the EU going to buy all those greenhouse grown flowers, tomatoes and cucumbers ?

Italy - the UK is second after the US with a surplus of $13 billion. Wine, pasta, Fiats and what else ?

Belgium - the UK is their third most prfitable export market with a surplus of $16 billion. That's a lot of chocolate and beer to find new homes for.

France - the UK is their most profitable export market with a $7.3 billion surplus in trade with the UK. I'm surprised - I thought the surplus would be more than that, but it's still gGoing to be difficult to find any other buyers in the EU for all that wine and cheese seeing as most other EU countries are self-sufficient in wine or cheese or both.

Spain - the UK is the third most prrofitable export market with a surplus of $5 billion. OK, they can just stop growing the fruit and veg and the grapes for the Rioja, but the EU will then have to compensate the farmers, I suppose.

Austria - the UK is the fifth most profitable market, with a surplus of $2 billion. No idea what, I can't recall buying anything here in France which came from Austria.

Portugal - another country for whom the UK is the most profitable export market with a surplus of $1.8 billion.

I still haven't got the numbers for the others...I'll also add that with the devaluation of the £, these surpluses are probably even more now.


Of course the UK has got more to lose than the EU if an agreement which doesn't suit everyone doesn't get done. But as I said, the problems with a 'no-deal' deal aren't just a problem for the UK.

If its not intentionally misleading, you lack some very basic understanding on how economies work.
Sigh.

As others have deconstructed this laughable post already, I will just add something to this sentence:
"As most of Germany's exports are high quality / high value hard products, not services, then I wonder how may other EU countries can afford to buy all those expensive ( and desirable ) cars and machine tools to make up for the reduced sales to the UK ?"
Do you think before you write something?
You just said it yourself, those are high quality products. Who will buy them if you leave without a deal? You. Just that it becomes more expensive.
The biggest strenght of the German economy and trade is that most of the goods are irreplacable.

I can see where all you guys are coming from regarding which Merc you'll be able to afford ( my heart bleeds for you - how about a Jag ? ) or where Marmite is made, or having to start drinking inferior wines ( ever tried Argentinian Malbec - superb ) etc, etc.

But apart from raw materials, there is very, very little which the UK wants and / or needs which can't be manufactured in the UK or imported from countries outside the EU and which at the moment are prohibitively expensive because of EU tarifs. Same thing for the EU as well - most things currently bought from the UK can be sourced inside the EU.

My simple maths says the UK's Balance of Trade would be about $43 billion better off if that's what happens. And if it ends up with WTO tariffs, well the UK is going to be anywhere between 5% and 45% of $43 billion better off than the EU countries.

But if you guys think that Big Business in the EU is just going to shrug its shoulders and move on while the politicos in Brussels do their best to block trading deals, then I'll remind you of just how much in the pockets of Big Business ALL politicos are, even those in Brussels.

You really think someone will buy a Jag instead? :lol:
They won't. You know why? In Jaguar's bracket, the biggest sales driver are company cars. Those companies are looking for resale value. The resale value of German cars is higher. They will continue to buy how they buy.

There is very little the UK can't manifacture themselves? True. Thing is, the UK doesn't produce anything anymore. You have decidied to have a service/baking economy. Especially the latter is very vulnerable to new EU regulations, while it is, in reality, impossible to just stomp whole industries out of the ground. Most of the knowlegde needed for those industries is long lost in the UK and won't ever come back.

You really have lost your sense for reality. Or, you really don't know better.
Probably the latter.
See guys, this is how we ended up with Brexit.
 
Your question about reglation / quality is valid. And the answer is a question of morals and choice, no ?

Can I ask whether you, personally, have stopped buying Nike trainers or Apple products even though there's overwhelming evidence they're made in Asian sweatshops by child labour or adults being paid less than $1 per hour as a matter of moral principle ? If you have, then good on you - especially because you're probably one of a miniscule mintority. I mean, if everyone had the same moral standards as you're suggesting we should have, then Nike and Apple plus hundreds of other 'brands' just wouldn't exist.

But I'll also remind you that many Third World countries complain bitterly that more than few of the EU's current quality regulations ( plus tariffs and quotas ) appear to be specifically designed to protect the Single Market from cheaper competiton. So maybe we should widen the debate to include where the EU's moral compass is, now, today, and not just where the UK's moral compass might end up in a couple of years' time.

As for your second observation - multinationals. They make things where they can get the biggest economies of scale. And in crunching the numbers, they obviously take into account on-site labour costs and from-site transportation costs.

I agree that not all of them will make changes to their geo-economic locations if the UK and the EU don't get a deal, but not too many will be prepared to ignore the world's 6th largest economy and simply stop making, say, UK branded cigarettes at a factory in Poland, as they are not only walking away from the UK market, but if they do they are also fecking up the economies of scale for the factory in Poland. It wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility that there will be manufacturers who will bring previously relocated factories back to the UK if the majority of those factories' output is for the UK and other non-EU markets. Not saying that will happen, but don't rule it out. Yay indeed....
 
FCBforever....

Like I said last time - you really are an insulting little twat, aren't you.

As many people have said the past few hundred years - it's easy to love Germany, just difficult to love arrogant germans.

Edted to add that I just showed your post to my wife.

She's German.

And she agrees with me.
 
Last edited:
In fairness it is because many official bodies including The Bank Of England and the European Commission were badly wrong about the initial impact of Brexit.

Their projections were based on the very idea of the UK leaving the EU would cause a crisis in consumer confidence which would in turn cause significant economic contraction.

You mean the short to mid-term effect immediately proceeding the result of the vote right?

Because the impact is not felt until the After the actual split.
 
FCBforever....

Like I said last time - you really are an insulting little twat, aren't you.

As many people have said the past few hundred years - it's easy to love Germany, just difficult to love arrogant germans.

Edted to add that I just showed your post to my wife.

She's German.

And she agrees with me.

I'm devastated
 
You mean the short to mid-term effect immediately proceeding the result of the vote right?

Because the impact is not felt until the After the actual split.

No, what I mean is that the short term effects were predicted by every man and his dog in the field of economics to be far worse than they have proven to be. That is why people have become sceptical of the 'doomongers' economic predictions on the matter.

Personally I expect a significant economic downturn in the next 2-5 years but find the predictions that the U.K. will been doomed long term and will have to go back to the EU cap in hand one day to be fanciful.

I am also hopeful that we will come away with a reasonable agreement with the EU by the end of the two years but worry that politics could scupper that.
 
If its not intentionally misleading, you lack some very basic understanding on how economies work.
Sigh.

As others have deconstructed this laughable post already, I will just add something to this sentence:
"As most of Germany's exports are high quality / high value hard products, not services, then I wonder how may other EU countries can afford to buy all those expensive ( and desirable ) cars and machine tools to make up for the reduced sales to the UK ?"
Do you think before you write something?
You just said it yourself, those are high quality products. Who will buy them if you leave without a deal? You. Just that it becomes more expensive.
The biggest strenght of the German economy and trade is that most of the goods are irreplacable.



You really think someone will buy a Jag instead? :lol:
They won't. You know why? In Jaguar's bracket, the biggest sales driver are company cars. Those companies are looking for resale value. The resale value of German cars is higher. They will continue to buy how they buy.

There is very little the UK can't manifacture themselves? True. Thing is, the UK doesn't produce anything anymore. You have decidied to have a service/baking economy. Especially the latter is very vulnerable to new EU regulations, while it is, in reality, impossible to just stomp whole industries out of the ground. Most of the knowlegde needed for those industries is long lost in the UK and won't ever come back.

You really have lost your sense for reality. Or, you really don't know better.
Probably the latter.
See guys, this is how we ended up with Brexit.


Well done with the trolling, good effort but a bit over egged.
 
If its not intentionally misleading, you lack some very basic understanding on how economies work.
Sigh.

As others have deconstructed this laughable post already, I will just add something to this sentence:
"As most of Germany's exports are high quality / high value hard products, not services, then I wonder how may other EU countries can afford to buy all those expensive ( and desirable ) cars and machine tools to make up for the reduced sales to the UK ?"
Do you think before you write something?
You just said it yourself, those are high quality products. Who will buy them if you leave without a deal? You. Just that it becomes more expensive.
The biggest strenght of the German economy and trade is that most of the goods are irreplacable.



You really think someone will buy a Jag instead? :lol:
They won't. You know why? In Jaguar's bracket, the biggest sales driver are company cars. Those companies are looking for resale value. The resale value of German cars is higher. They will continue to buy how they buy.


There is very little the UK can't manifacture themselves? True. Thing is, the UK doesn't produce anything anymore. You have decidied to have a service/baking economy. Especially the latter is very vulnerable to new EU regulations, while it is, in reality, impossible to just stomp whole industries out of the ground. Most of the knowlegde needed for those industries is long lost in the UK and won't ever come back.

You really have lost your sense for reality. Or, you really don't know better.
Probably the latter.
See guys, this is how we ended up with Brexit.

No the biggest strength the German economy has is its production is undervalued by being in the Euro rather than the Mark.


If the EU takes this attitude then we are going to have to find out which will be sad for all parties.

German car sales to the UK are worth 30 billion Euros per year. You can shut your eyes and pretend that doesn't matter, that whatever is done to the UK sales into Europe the UK will still buy BMW's because they are irreplaceable. I think that is nonsense. We buy BMW's because we want to and we will stop if we want to. The quickest way to force that change in thinking is to go about things the way you are suggesting in just about all your posts and that is by taking the customer for granted.
 
No the biggest strength the German economy has is its production is undervalued by being in the Euro rather than the Mark.


If the EU takes this attitude then we are going to have to find out which will be sad for all parties.

German car sales to the UK are worth 30 billion Euros per year. You can shut your eyes and pretend that doesn't matter, that whatever is done to the UK sales into Europe the UK will still buy BMW's because they are irreplaceable. I think that is nonsense. We buy BMW's because we want to and we will stop if we want to. The quickest way to force that change in thinking is to go about things the way you are suggesting in just about all your posts and that is by taking the customer for granted.

The tarrifs introduced will be rather low since the UK has to export cars into the EU as well. So, yeah, there might be small drop. But all in all, VW sells twice the cars in China per month then it does in the UK per year. Just to put it into perspective.

The simple point here is that the EU has the better (bigger) cards. It's as simple as that and people need to understand that.

Well done with the trolling, good effort but a bit over egged.

It's not trolling. It's breaking down simple truths.
 
or having to start drinking inferior wines ( ever tried Argentinian Malbec - superb ) etc, etc.

See I'd a tight wad but I've never managed to come across a Malbec that didn't taste like cough medicene. But anyway if European wines face tarrifs the Argie companies can put up prices as they get more demand for their wines.

But apart from raw materials, there is very, very little which the UK wants and / or needs which can't be manufactured in the UK or imported from countries outside the EU and which at the moment are prohibitively expensive because of EU tarifs. Same thing for the EU as well - most things currently bought from the UK can be sourced inside the EU.

This isn't true unless you want prices to quadrupple or more in some cases. I run a nutritional supplement company. Most nutrients can't be bought in Europe and next to none are manufactured in the UK. The ingredients manufactured in the EU cost multiple times what Chinese suppliers sell for.

Now that's just my example, but there's countless examples of hyper inflation that could happen without free trade.

I saw a casestudy of 1 family owned car manufacturer (bespoke stuff), that bought most of their parts in the EU and sold most of their parts in the EU. They will get doubly hit by paying more for parts and selling less because of import duties. They'll probably go under, as many businesses will.

My simple maths says the UK's Balance of Trade would be about $43 billion better off if that's what happens. And if it ends up with WTO tariffs, well the UK is going to be anywhere between 5% and 45% of $43 billion better off than the EU countries.

Your balance of payment equation ignores exports and ignores inflation for businesses and consumers. Busienss inflation reduces

Ask yourself when Britain stopped being an impoverished nation and became rich and why. It was when we embraced global trade.

But if you guys think that Big Business in the EU is just going to shrug its shoulders and move on while the politicos in Brussels do their best to block trading deals, then I'll remind you of just how much in the pockets of Big Business ALL politicos are, even those in Brussels.

Big business could simply move to EU countries, that's the huge danger for Britain.
 
See I'd a tight wad but I've never managed to come across a Malbec that didn't taste like cough medicene. But anyway if European wines face tarrifs the Argie companies can put up prices as they get more demand for their wines.



This isn't true unless you want prices to quadrupple or more in some cases. I run a nutritional supplement company. Most nutrients can't be bought in Europe and next to none are manufactured in the UK. The ingredients manufactured in the EU cost multiple times what Chinese suppliers sell for.

Now that's just my example, but there's countless examples of hyper inflation that could happen without free trade.

I saw a casestudy of 1 family owned car manufacturer (bespoke stuff), that bought most of their parts in the EU and sold most of their parts in the EU. They will get doubly hit by paying more for parts and selling less because of import duties. They'll probably go under, as many businesses will.



Your balance of payment equation ignores exports and ignores inflation for businesses and consumers. Busienss inflation reduces

Ask yourself when Britain stopped being an impoverished nation and became rich and why. It was when we embraced global trade.



Big business could simply move to EU countries, that's the huge danger for Britain.
You paint a wonderful picture of rich britain in the eu, lets hope that those not feeling your joy and wealth can get something in the next 2 years before they really start not feeling the benefits.
 
No the biggest strength the German economy has is its production is undervalued by being in the Euro rather than the Mark.
This just isn't true though... If it were true, why is the UK so fixated on having a 'strong' pound? A stronger currency would simply reduce the numbers in a global economy... There is almost nothing produced in Germany that wasn't sourced somewhere else first. In my opinion it's not just wrong to claim, it's used deliberately as a piece of propaganda.
 
See I'd a tight wad but I've never managed to come across a Malbec that didn't taste like cough medicene. But anyway if European wines face tarrifs the Argie companies can put up prices as they get more demand for their wines.



This isn't true unless you want prices to quadrupple or more in some cases. I run a nutritional supplement company. Most nutrients can't be bought in Europe and next to none are manufactured in the UK. The ingredients manufactured in the EU cost multiple times what Chinese suppliers sell for.

Now that's just my example, but there's countless examples of hyper inflation that could happen without free trade.

I saw a casestudy of 1 family owned car manufacturer (bespoke stuff), that bought most of their parts in the EU and sold most of their parts in the EU. They will get doubly hit by paying more for parts and selling less because of import duties. They'll probably go under, as many businesses will.



Your balance of payment equation ignores exports and ignores inflation for businesses and consumers. Busienss inflation reduces

Ask yourself when Britain stopped being an impoverished nation and became rich and why. It was when we embraced global trade.



Big business could simply move to EU countries, that's the huge danger for Britain.

Your thoughts and experiences...My thoughts and experiences below.


Argentinian Malbec - wish I could find cough syrup which tastes as good, but each to his own, etc. Sure they might put their price up, but unless Chile, USA, Sth Africa, Australia and NZ do so as well, then that'd be economic suicide and so no tears shed for them if they do.

No too sure I understand what the problem is with your supplements. You will still be able to buy from China or pay four times as much buying from the EU after BREXIT, no ?

The car company you mention is no different to lots of similar, smaller companies in the EU, who will pay more for what they buy from the UK and will sell less to the UK because of Tariffs. Harsh, but it's the EU who will insist on tariffs - the UK would be more than happy to contnue tariff free trade.

The Balance of Payments computation - no.... no trade would 'save' the UK $43 billion at the last count. Probably more given devaluation of the £

Agreed with you about the UK's historical trading. But can I add that at the time, the UK got raw materials for virtually nothing from its Empire, and had very little competition for its exports. The UK stopped being impoverished because almost free raw materials and little competition on World Markets gave the UK a massive Balance of Payments surplus. I know it's hard to believe, but the UK was once the richest country in the world on the back of Global Trade. It won't ever be again, but with new opportunities, new impetus and real need to think Globally in order to survive and thrive, it might get better than it is now.

Finally, all Big Businesses with clout are global. They're already present inside the EU so no change there. And it's certain that some will leave the UK for their EU businesses and some will come to the UK to continue their UK businesses.
 
FYI - this huge march in London on Saturday will get hijacked by Trump/BrExit bashing, if anyone wants to indulge. I'm going to take photos and scream some obscenities.

#MarchAgainstRacism:
Saturday 18th Martch, 2017
Assemble 12 noon @ Portland Place,
March to Parliament Square

As Theresa May prepares to trigger Article 50 with 'Hard Brexit' while contributing to the toxic scapegoating of migrants, let's send a powerful anti-racist message:

• Refugees & Migrants Welcome
• No to the Muslim Ban
• Defend EU Migrants right to stay
• No to Racism, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism
• Stand up to Trump
• Defend Free Movement

Speakers include:
Shami Chakrabarti, Shadow Attorney General • David Lammy MP • Frances O'Grady, TUC Gen Sec • Sally Hunt, UCU Gen Sec • Kevin Courtney, NUT Gen Sec • Matt Wrack, FBU Gen Sec • Roger Mckenzie, UNISON Ass Sec • Shakira Martin, NUS VPFE • Azad Ali, Mend • Dr Siema Iqbal • David Rosenberg, Jewish Socialists' Group • Moazzam Begg, CAGE • Janet Alder, Christoper Alder Campaign • Shannon Davis, London Women's March • Maz Saleem, Stand Up to Trump • Clare Moseley, Care4Calais • Tommy Tomescu, Europeans Party • Kate Hudson, CND • Marvina Newton • Sabby Dhalu & Weyman Bennett, Stand Up To Racism Plus speakers from Stop The War Coalition and Peoples Assembly.
 
FYI - this huge march in London on Saturday will get hijacked by Trump/BrExit bashing, if anyone wants to indulge. I'm going to take photos and scream some obscenities.

It's the Defend Free Movement that is so hypocritical.

Does the EU allow unlimited number of economic migrants from Africa or Asia to freely settle in, say, France or Germany or Luxemburg without having a job offer first ??

Of course not - but apparently that's not considered as racist.
 
...
Peter Navarro uses it because Trump needs scapegoats he can blame the misfortune of his supporters on. The Euro (or even the D-Mark) wouldn't have been possible without the US and its role in Europe, the same is true for the EU. Both of which are hugely beneficial to the US (And has been viewed as such by every administration up to 2 months ago, even Trump will come around to it eventually).

Again, why is the UK so fixated on a strong pound, if all it takes is a weak currency? There is nothing holding the UK back other then some minor changes in monetary policy... if it were true.
 
Last edited:
But it's not just Navarro....

Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, said the country had no influence over the euro exchange rate.
“I neither want to nor can I do something to change the situation,” she told reporters in Stockholm.
Mario Draghi, the ECB's president, has warned that the country's persistent current account surplus has contributed to imbalances and hindered growth in the eurozone.
Analysis by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggests the euro is trading below its "fair value".
Data published by the Paris-based think-tank shows the the euro is the most undervalued currency among the dollar's major peers.


Not sure the UK is fixated by a strong pound - it needs a weak pound to encourage exports in order to survive post Brexit and to encourage cheap, inward investment. And as you say, seems to be doing a pretty good job at keeping the FX Rate for £ fairly low.

The fixation appears to be more with many of the anti-Brexit posters on here and elsewhere who moan constantly about the FX rate for £ <> € and £ <> $. They have a point, of course. But at one point in 2008, the £ <> € FX Rate fell to 1.022 - the UK survived, and by end of 2015 the rate was back up to 1.359, which was unsustainable with or without Brexit.

And notice that there hasn't been too much noise about the weak £ from anti-Brexit politicians - none of them are demanding that the Government does something to improve the FX rate of £.

At the end of the day, in the 21st century it's the spivs, sharks and speculators in the markets who determine FX rates and I suspect both Germany and the UK are quite happy with the current FX Rates and are not going to do anything much to change them if they can leave it up to the markets and so can avoid having to disadvantage themselves.
 
But it's not just Navarro....

Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, said the country had no influence over the euro exchange rate.
“I neither want to nor can I do something to change the situation,” she told reporters in Stockholm.
Mario Draghi, the ECB's president, has warned that the country's persistent current account surplus has contributed to imbalances and hindered growth in the eurozone.
Analysis by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggests the euro is trading below its "fair value".
Data published by the Paris-based think-tank shows the the euro is the most undervalued currency among the dollar's major peers.


Not sure the UK is fixated by a strong pound - it needs a weak pound to encourage exports in order to survive post Brexit and to encourage cheap, inward investment. And as you say, seems to be doing a pretty good job at keeping the FX Rate for £ fairly low.

The fixation appears to be more with many of the anti-Brexit posters on here and elsewhere who moan constantly about the FX rate for £ <> € and £ <> $. They have a point, of course. But at one point in 2008, the £ <> € FX Rate fell to 1.022 - the UK survived, and by end of 2015 the rate was back up to 1.359, which was unsustainable with or without Brexit.

And notice that there hasn't been too much noise about the weak £ from anti-Brexit politicians - none of them are demanding that the Government does something to improve the FX rate of £.

At the end of the day, in the 21st century it's the spivs, sharks and speculators in the markets who determine FX rates and I suspect both Germany and the UK are quite happy with the current FX Rates and are not going to do anything much to change them if they can leave it up to the markets and so can avoid having to disadvantage themselves.
Yes and no. Sterling weakness obviously means higher input costs and importing inflation. If it does pick up further, the BoE will be wary of raising rates given the fragility of the economy. The flipside obviously is the attractiveness of letting inflation tick up to help lower the national debt. Carney needs to be a supreme tightrope-walker to get us through this unscathed.
 
Yes and no. Sterling weakness obviously means higher input costs and importing inflation. If it does pick up further, the BoE will be wary of raising rates given the fragility of the economy. The flipside obviously is the attractiveness of letting inflation tick up to help lower the national debt. Carney needs to be a supreme tightrope-walker to get us through this unscathed.


Can't help thinking that Carney is a fraud.

He agreed with Cameron about a post-Brexit apocalypse.

Then he agreed with May about the wonderful opportunities for the UK post-Brexit.

I hope he's a better tight rope walker than he's proving to be an independent Governor of the BoE.
 
It's the Defend Free Movement that is so hypocritical.

Does the EU allow unlimited number of economic migrants from Africa or Asia to freely settle in, say, France or Germany or Luxemburg without having a job offer first ??

Of course not - but apparently that's not considered as racist.

Do these countries offer freedom of movement to Europeans? Some are openly racists (ex Zimbabwe) and most cnt even bother take their own people back (failed asylum seekers) and that despite the fact that the eu pump millions in their economy for that sole purpose
 
Last edited:
Can't help thinking that Carney is a fraud.

He agreed with Cameron about a post-Brexit apocalypse.

Then he agreed with May about the wonderful opportunities for the UK post-Brexit.

I hope he's a better tight rope walker than he's proving to be an independent Governor of the BoE.

The guy carries heavy responsibility for the continued stability of the UK economy. What exactly did you expect him to do after the referendum? Turn around and start going 'Well this is madness, we're all doomed!!'? He did exactly what you'd want the head of the BoE to do, he put out a calming, positive statement to try and prevent panic from setting it. It doesn't mean he suddenly changed his mind overnight.
 
But it's not just Navarro....

Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, said the country had no influence over the euro exchange rate.
“I neither want to nor can I do something to change the situation,” she told reporters in Stockholm.
Mario Draghi, the ECB's president, has warned that the country's persistent current account surplus has contributed to imbalances and hindered growth in the eurozone.
Analysis by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggests the euro is trading below its "fair value".
Data published by the Paris-based think-tank shows the the euro is the most undervalued currency among the dollar's major peers.

Those are three separate quotes from different sources right? (Just for my comprehension).
1. Of course Merkel can't change the euro exchange rate. Trump can't change the dollar exchange rate either. No semi-decent democracy lets it's exchange rate be played with by its political leaders... And the Euro isn't just Germany's currency, it's the common currency of 19 independent countries who all had to agree on terms of how to govern it...

2. Mario Draghi wants Germany to import more from other eurozone members (I agree with him)... Not sure how that fits into your narrative though. The exchange rate with the rest of the world doesn't change much about that, in fact an unduly weak euro would encourage imports from inside the EU as opposed to say from the UK/US.

3. Nothing ever trades below it's fair value. The value of anything is defined by what it is trading for. There's people claiming they know better than the markets... doesn't make them right.

Not sure the UK is fixated by a strong pound - it needs a weak pound to encourage exports in order to survive post Brexit and to encourage cheap, inward investment. And as you say, seems to be doing a pretty good job at keeping the FX Rate for £ fairly low.
My observation that the UK is fixated on a strong pound is mostly anecdotal and from personal experience (which is obviously limited by my limited knowledge about other countries), so i'd concede that . However, I know no other country where the exchange rate is permanently displayed on news television (like it is in Sky News) or makes the news quite as often... or is discussed in public so much. But then again that observation might just be wrong on my end because I understand English and consume British media while I don't understand the languages of all the other major economies (Except for USA, Australia, NZ of course).


But at one point in 2008, the £ <> € FX Rate fell to 1.022 - the UK survived, and by end of 2015 the rate was back up to 1.359, which was unsustainable with or without Brexit.
Fair enough.
And notice that there hasn't been too much noise about the weak £ from anti-Brexit politicians - none of them are demanding that the Government does something to improve the FX rate of £.

At the end of the day, in the 21st century it's the spivs, sharks and speculators in the markets who determine FX rates and I suspect both Germany and the UK are quite happy with the current FX Rates and are not going to do anything much to change them if they can leave it up to the markets and so can avoid having to disadvantage themselves.
Why keep banging on about an 'undervalued' Euro then?

Do these countries offer freedom of movement to Europeans? Some are openly racists (ex Zimbabwe) and most cnt even bother take their own people back (failed asylum seekers) and that despite the fact that the eu pump millions in their economy for that sole purpose
That wasn't my post you quoted. I don't mind much, however would like to point out that the post in your quote isn't my point of view at all :).
 
That wasn't my post you quoted. I don't mind much, however would like to point out that the post in your quote isn't my point of view at all :).

Upps, sorry! I corrected it
 
The guy carries heavy responsibility for the continued stability of the UK economy. What exactly did you expect him to do after the referendum? Turn around and start going 'Well this is madness, we're all doomed!!'? He did exactly what you'd want the head of the BoE to do, he put out a calming, positive statement to try and prevent panic from setting it. It doesn't mean he suddenly changed his mind overnight.


Yes....He did what was necessary, thankfully.

But he twists and turns like a twisty turning thing on lots of issues - Brexit, inflation, FX rates, etc, etc.

King wasn't always right - but he was consistant.
 
ABIZZ....

No, the quotes are all from the same article which I linked to.

The FX Rate for the € factors in strong economies such as Germany and Netherlands, but also basket case economies such as Greece and the potential banking meltdown in Italy.

At the moment, lots of people believe that Germany is getting a cheap ride on the backs of what used to be called the PIGS and the markets are more concerned / worried about what could go wrong in Greece and Italy than they are correctly reflecting the performance of the German economy.
 
ABIZZ....

No, the quotes are all from the same article which I linked to.

The FX Rate for the € factors in strong economies such as Germany and Netherlands, but also basket case economies such as Greece and the potential banking meltdown in Italy.

At the moment, lots of people believe that Germany is getting a cheap ride on the backs of what used to be called the PIGS and the markets are more concerned / worried about what could go wrong in Greece and Italy than they are correctly reflecting the performance of the German economy.

Yes the € exrate factors in all the economies in the Eurozone, ie the confidence in the Eurozone as a whole.
The £ exrate factors only the confidence in the UK economy.

When the Euro was introduced the exrate was €1.60/£1 and stayed above €1.40 until the crash in 2008 - the Pound nosedived against the Euro and the USD.
As the Uk economy improved the confidence in Sterling improved over the following years and the £ exrate improved to reach €1.43/£1 in November 2015.
Since the worry about a possible Brexit before the vote and another nosedive after the vote , we are where we are today.

The £/USD has nosedived even more.
People talk about currencies being overvalued or undervalued, what therefore is the correct value, it doesn't exist.

If the GBP stayed where it is now, it can be sustainable and under normal circumstances if the UK economy improved, it may have gained again over time.

We are hearing that the UK economy is in fantastic shape and that it will be even better when it leaves the EU from Brexiters, fine if the markets agree with this opinion. If they don't, which is why the Pound has fallen so much over the past year then the fall may be far from over.
If the Pound did nosedive again, would this be sustainable around parity with the USD or €?

Yes it has dipped to near those levels in the past but only for very brief periods of time. If it was the norm it couldn't be sustainable.

The Uk being self-sufficient and having a zero defecit is highly unlikely and the more likely scenario is the defecit will increase if the economy stalled because of Brexit.

No-one can be proved right or wrong until the Uk leave the EU.