Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[fcbforever]

Which currency would that be?

Not Tha Poooond

Funny thing is, England has no means to take the Pound from them.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Sure ??

I think they know absolutely, positively, definitely what they're doing.

I reckon they're fronting up to the EU with a ' bring it on ' attitude - which might or might not be the best approach, as the UK has more to lose than the EU if they don't get a deal with them, but until the EU actually starts coming up with a few constructive suggestions about ' where-to-from-here ' instead of ' the-UK-must-be punished ' comments which are all we've heard from them up to now.

Positive they don't.. yes they want to play the tough guy, but they can't even answer simple questions and contradict themselves continously.
They had no plan and still have no plan other than expecting the EU to roll over to their demands.

They have waited 9 months to trigger A50 , there has been no reason to wait, for what..?

The EU can't say or do much until A50 is triggered but one thing is guaranteed - the EU has been suggesting by their comments is that whatever deal will be negotiated eventually it will be less favourable than the one they have now, it can't be anything else.

As soon as A50 is triggered the ball moves from the UK's court and their posturing to the EU's court and then the timetable will be up to the EU.

As time progresses I believe how unprepared the UK is for this will become more apparent.

Till now nothing has really happened, May is just about to release the brake on the roller coaster, hold on for dear life?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Funny thing is, England has no means to take the Pound from them.

What does Ronald McDonald think about that?

"Sterlingisation in any of its forms - formal or informal - is a very bad idea for an independent Scotland since it means that the exchange rate (the rate at which the currency of an independent country trades with its main trading partner, the rest of UK) is rigidly fixed at a one-to-one parity. As we have been recently reminded, the oil sector plays a dominant role in the Scottish economy, both in terms of employment and economic activity, but also in terms of the fiscal deficit which is currently around 10% of GDP and would not be sustainable in an independent Scotland, requiring cuts to public spending and probably tax rises.

"Scotland's fiscal deficit is, however, sustainable as part of the fiscal sharing agreement it has from being part of the UK. An independent Scotland, by definition, would not have such a fiscal sharing agreement but would desperately need to become more competitive in its non-oil private sector to help create jobs for those shed in the oil and public sectors (due to the expenditure cuts).

"With a fixed exchange rate this can only be achieved by wage and price cuts - the so-called internal adjustment mechanism that Greece has had to undergo. But with an independent currency that is not tied to sterling and is free to adjust (a flexible exchange rate) this would bring about adjustment much more quickly without the need for a protracted period of recession such as Greece has faced."

 

[jackofalltrades]

When Farage was asked about plans for Brexit he said he didn't have any. Now, after 9 months, Davis says there has been no assessment of the economic consequences of May's plan to walk away with no deal. Some people have said the "Well, we haven't left yet" explanation for the relative calm is wearing thin. If that is thin, what is this ?

 

[fcbforever]

What does Ronald McDonald think about that?

"Sterlingisation in any of its forms - formal or informal - is a very bad idea for an independent Scotland since it means that the exchange rate (the rate at which the currency of an independent country trades with its main trading partner, the rest of UK) is rigidly fixed at a one-to-one parity. As we have been recently reminded, the oil sector plays a dominant role in the Scottish economy, both in terms of employment and economic activity, but also in terms of the fiscal deficit which is currently around 10% of GDP and would not be sustainable in an independent Scotland, requiring cuts to public spending and probably tax rises.

"Scotland's fiscal deficit is, however, sustainable as part of the fiscal sharing agreement it has from being part of the UK. An independent Scotland, by definition, would not have such a fiscal sharing agreement but would desperately need to become more competitive in its non-oil private sector to help create jobs for those shed in the oil and public sectors (due to the expenditure cuts).

"With a fixed exchange rate this can only be achieved by wage and price cuts - the so-called internal adjustment mechanism that Greece has had to undergo. But with an independent currency that is not tied to sterling and is free to adjust (a flexible exchange rate) this would bring about adjustment much more quickly without the need for a protracted period of recession such as Greece has faced."

I wasn't saying it's a good idea to keep it (in it's current form, it clearly isn't anyway and it would be way easier to just introduce their own) but just that all the "they will lose the pound" fearmongerers are talking bullshit. It's not like England can take the pound from them the day they gain their independence. There's a lot of countries in the world using currencies which aren't theirs and of which they are not officially part off.

 

[Full bodied red]

Positive they don't.. yes they want to play the tough guy, but they can't even answer simple questions and contradict themselves continously.
They had no plan and still have no plan other than expecting the EU to roll over to their demands.

They have waited 9 months to trigger A50 , there has been no reason to wait, for what..?

The EU can't say or do much until A50 is triggered but one thing is guaranteed - the EU has been suggesting by their comments is that whatever deal will be negotiated eventually it will be less favourable than the one they have now, it can't be anything else.

As soon as A50 is triggered the ball moves from the UK's court and their posturing to the EU's court and then the timetable will be up to the EU.

As time progresses I believe how unprepared the UK is for this will become more apparent.

Till now nothing has really happened, May is just about to release the brake on the roller coaster, hold on for dear life?

I agree with most of what you say, other than that BOTH the EU and May COULD have started talking at any time since 23rd June - my understanding is that the EU said they couldn't until Art 50 and that the UK is forbidden to start Trade Negotiaitions with, say, USA or Australia until the UK has actually left the EU

On the basis that Art 50 was always going to be followed ( and I agree should have been done asap, but a big blame on Gina Miller and her backers / supporters for that ) but it would have helped everyone if the UK and EU had started talking while they were waiting for an official Art 50 notification.

As you say, we're on a roller coaster now - both the UK and the EU.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I wasn't saying it's a good idea to keep it (in it's current form, it clearly isn't anyway and it would be way easier to just introduce their own) but just that all the "they will lose the pound" fearmongerers are talking bullshit. It's not like England can take the pound from them the day they gain their independence. There's a lot of countries in the world using currencies which aren't theirs and of which they are not officially part off.

If they really want to be independent they need their own currency.

 

[jackofalltrades]

I think some of the English elite, and many people in general, just don't get how important the Euro-elite see this issue. I believe the EU see it as an existential threat to the union, whose acrimonious disintegration, or even worse, chaotic collapse, could lead to disaster on a major scale.

The dilemmas ahead may be resolved relatively well - or with great and bloody-nosed anger. People seem to have forgotten what the European project was all about in the first place, which is a sign of how successful it has been and what has been achieved by it.

 

[Full bodied red]

If they really want to be independent they need their own currency.

How and why if they'd be switching to the Euro very shortly afterwards.

 

[Kentonio]

I reckon they're fronting up to the EU with a ' bring it on ' attitude - which might or might not be the best approach, as the UK has more to lose than the EU if they don't get a deal with them, but until the EU actually starts coming up with a few constructive suggestions about ' where-to-from-here ' instead of ' the-UK-must-be punished ' comments which are all we've heard from them up to now.

The UK already have probably the best deal in the EU given the rebates and things we've opted out of. Why would any EU country agree to give us an even better deal without contributions. They'd be voting to make themselves worse off just so we could be better off. It makes absolutely no sense, yet somehow May and the rest have sold people on this idea that they're just trying to 'punish' us. It's mental.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

How and why if they'd be switching to the Euro very shortly afterwards.

They won't want to join the Euro and will probably want want to stay in a currency union with the UK like last time, which will still give Westminster significant influence over their fiscal policy.

You can't be a true independent country if you are in the EU and especially if you adopt the Euro. One of Sturgeons challenges in any vote will be convincing the 400000 voters for Scottish independence/Brexit combined that this isn't the case. This demographic could swing the referendum in the wrong direction for the SNP.

 

[golden_blunder]

Did anyone see the classic rant from SF's Martina Anderson the other day in relation to Brexit and specifically the impact on any Irish border control? (don't know if its been posted here yet)

 

[Full bodied red]

The UK already have probably the best deal in the EU given the rebates and things we've opted out of. Why would any EU country agree to give us an even better deal without contributions. They'd be voting to make themselves worse off just so we could be better off. It makes absolutely no sense, yet somehow May and the rest have sold people on this idea that they're just trying to 'punish' us. It's mental.

I'm sure the UK won't get a 'better' deal than they appear to have at the moment.

But neither will the EU get a better deal than it appears to have with the UK at the moment.

As far as I'm aware, the main things that the UK opted out of are the Euro, Schengen and ??

And the rebates - nothing written in stone that these would last forever. They're renegotiated every seven years and require the other 27 to agree how much the UK's rebates will be for the next seven years.

I agree with lots of the REMAINERS's concerns which haven't been thought through yet, let alone resolved, but the EU has as much to lose in these negotiations so I don't think that it's only the UK who are on the back foot.

 

[GloryHunter07]

I wasn't saying it's a good idea to keep it (in it's current form, it clearly isn't anyway and it would be way easier to just introduce their own) but just that all the "they will lose the pound" fearmongerers are talking bullshit. It's not like England can take the pound from them the day they gain their independence. There's a lot of countries in the world using currencies which aren't theirs and of which they are not officially part off.

Has England actually said we would take the pound from Scotland?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I agree with most of what you say, other than that BOTH the EU and May COULD have started talking at any time since 23rd June - my understanding is that the EU said they couldn't until Art 50 and that the UK is forbidden to start Trade Negotiaitions with, say, USA or Australia until the UK has actually left the EU

On the basis that Art 50 was always going to be followed ( and I agree should have been done asap, but a big blame on Gina Miller and her backers / supporters for that ) but it would have helped everyone if the UK and EU had started talking while they were waiting for an official Art 50 notification.

As you say, we're on a roller coaster now - both the UK and the EU.

No they can't have any official discussions about any trade deal until they have completely left, the Uk is still part of the EU. Until the date they leave which presumably will be some time in 2019 they have to work on behalf of the EU under the regulations of the treaties. Would be a conflict of interest otherwise.

If the UK had done things correctly there wouldn't have been a need for Gina miller or anyone else, May thinks she has absolute power and can do what she wants.

The Uk have threatened to leave but until they officially resign nothing could happen.

It's like someone threatening to leave their job and then not handing in their resignation. How can the company plan ahead. Also no-one knew what type of leaving plan the UK wanted and actually at this moment, even now, until A50 is officially triggered, no-one really knows for sure.

 

[fcbforever]

Has England actually said we would take the pound from Scotland?

Was part of the discussion last time, will be again.

 

[Kentonio]

I agree with lots of the REMAINERS's concerns which haven't been thought through yet, let alone resolved, but the EU has as much to lose in these negotiations so I don't think that it's only the UK who are on the back foot.

No it doesn't. The EU is 27 countries each with their own economies and interests and bound together with an over-riding desire for the EU to work as well as possible moving forward for all their benefits. Why do they have as much to lose? The EU accounts for 50% of the UK's trade. The opposite is most certainly not true.

 

[Kentonio]

But Mr Davis hinted no assessment of the Brexit options will be carried out, saying: “You don’t need a piece of paper with numbers on it to have an economic assessment.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-leave-no-deal-select-committee-a7630626.html

I want to laugh but simultanteously smash my head into a wall until I wake up from this horrific dream I seem to have been having for the last 8 months..

And he appeared to downgrade the Government’s pledge that the UK will enjoy the “same economic benefits” outside the EU, telling the MPs: “I was expressing an ambition.”

Oh that's ok then..

 

[Full bodied red]

No they can't have any official discussions about any trade deal until they have completely left, the Uk is still part of the EU. Until the date they leave which presumably will be some time in 2019 they have to work on behalf of the EU under the regulations of the treaties. Would be a conflict of interest otherwise.

If the UK had done things correctly there wouldn't have been a need for Gina miller or anyone else, May thinks she has absolute power and can do what she wants.

The Uk have threatened to leave but until they officially resign nothing could happen.

It's like someone threatening to leave their job and then not handing in their resignation. How can the company plan ahead. Also no-one knew what type of leaving plan the UK wanted and actually at this moment, even now, until A50 is officially triggered, no-one really knows for sure.

I don't think the UK threatened to leave - that's what Cameron did when he said that he would support the UK leaving the EU if the EU didn't make concessions to further reforms.

The EU declined to make concessions and reforms; the UK voted to leave; May told the world that BREXIT means BREXIT; the EU insisted on Artb 50 before starting informal discussions / negotiations

It seems to me that the UK is not the only one contributing to the mess....

 

[Kentonio]

During the evidence session, with the committee shadowing his Department for Exiting the European Union, Mr Davis also:

* Said it was “probably right” that holidaying Britons will lose EHIC cards, which provide free or subsidized healthcare across the EU, but added: “I have not looked at that one.”

* Admitted he did not know the implications of leaving with no deal on the transfer of personal data, which is crucial issue for the booming tech industry.

* Acknowledged UK producers of dairy and meat would face tariffs of up to 40 per cent under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules – “the numbers in agriculture are high”.

* Described the argument that the UK could walk away without paying a penny to the EU, if no deal is reached, as “interesting” – “a very good start in this exercise”.

* Said he expected Northern Ireland would end up with a “very light border, not a hard border” with the Republic.

* Said he “assumed” the ‘Open Skies’ agreement – which has slashed airfares across the EU - will be lost, although he would fight for a successor.

* Confirmed financial services firms are poised to lose ‘passporting rights’ to trade in the EU, saying: “I would expect that to be the case, that’s an area of uncertainty.”

However, Mr Davis protested that the committee had not “asked me about the upsides” – which included being able to “relax things” for the 60 per cent of trade with countries outside the EU.

We are so completely fecked..

 

[Paul the Wolf]

How can Hammond announce in the Budget about the NIC and then within a week do a complete U-turn.

It's an incompetent government. If any of them came for an interview for a job they'd be turned down flat. It's humiliating and these fools are going to lead the country through their most challenging episode in their history since they joined the EEC.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I don't think the UK threatened to leave - that's what Cameron did when he said that he would support the UK leaving the EU if the EU didn't make concessions to further reforms.

The EU declined to make concessions and reforms; the UK voted to leave; May told the world that BREXIT means BREXIT; the EU insisted on Artb 50 before starting informal discussions / negotiations

It seems to me that the UK is not the only one contributing to the mess....

Cameron met with the EU , came back and supported the Remain campaign- his gamble backfired with the voters.
As I said the EU has to wait until A50 is triggered, there is no other choice, when I said "threatened to leave" I mean by Leave winning the referendum.

Although it's not beneficial for the EU that the UK leaves, the mess will be in the UK.
May said Brexit is Brexit which means everything goes but then keeps alluding to be part of the single market , Boris saying it would be insane to leave the single market.

If a complete break is what the UK gets and if that's what it really wants, there has to be so much change it's inconceivable how the UK can manage this, especially under the guidance of the current government.

 

[Full bodied red]

No it doesn't. The EU is 27 countries each with their own economies and interests and bound together with an over-riding desire for the EU to work as well as possible moving forward for all their benefits. Why do they have as much to lose? The EU accounts for 50% of the UK's trade. The opposite is most certainly not true.

You're almost correct so I won't argue with you.

In 2015, the UK's exports were £510 billion, and £220 billion went to the EU. About 44% or close to the 50% you said.

In 2015, the UK had a defecit of £43 billion in its trade with EU countries.

That's what the finanial risks to both parties are - failure to reach an agreement will be catastrophic for both the UK and the EU.

The other risk to the EU is, of course, which other country in the EU is going to be able to provide about 300,000 jobs per year to intra-EU Economic Migrants, and it is this which is the only reason why the EU wouldn't and still won't compromise on its Freedon of Movement requirements in its negotiations with the UK.

 

[fcbforever]

You're almost correct so I won't argue with you.

In 2015, the UK's exports were £510 billion, and £220 billion went to the EU. About 44% or close to the 50% you said.

In 2015, the UK had a defecit of £43 billion in its trade with EU countries.

That's what the finanial risks to both parties are - failure to reach an agreement will be catastrophic for both the UK and the EU.

The other risk to the EU is, of course, which other country in the EU is going to be able to provide about 300,000 jobs per year to intra-EU Economic Migrants, and it is this which is the only reason why the EU wouldn't and still won't compromise on its Freedon of Movement requirements in its negotiations with the UK.

That's nice numbers you are putting out there, but they are intentionally misleading.
You completely fail to acknowledge that 263 billion pounds of trade is, in the grand scheme of the EU trade, not nearly as significant as 220 billion is for the UK. As an example, while 15% of your imports are from Germany and that might seem a lot, that is just 7,1% of German exports.

Also, it's not like, shouldn't there be an agreement, that all trade would fall flat. It would get a bit more expensive, yes. But for most things, the UK has just no other options that the EU due to its geographic position. Which in the end means the UK has got a lot more to lose and will swallow everything to stay in the single market.

 

[Kentonio]

You're almost correct so I won't argue with you.

In 2015, the UK's exports were £510 billion, and £220 billion went to the EU. About 44% or close to the 50% you said.

In 2015, the UK had a defecit of £43 billion in its trade with EU countries.

It's also worth remembering that in 2015 53% of our imports were from the EU. We talk about the trade deficit being bad, but I'm damn sure the UK population isn't slightly interested in having its range of foods and consumer items reduced, or replaced with much more expensive versions.

That's what the finanial risks to both parties are - failure to reach an agreement will be catastrophic for both the UK and the EU.

The other risk to the EU is, of course, which other country in the EU is going to be able to provide about 300,000 jobs per year to intra-EU Economic Migrants, and it is this which is the only reason why the EU wouldn't and still won't compromise on its Freedon of Movement requirements in its negotiations with the UK.

I don't buy catastrophic for the EU because its all a matter of scale. 44% of UK exports to the EU, while EU exports to the UK are only 6%-7% of the EU total. In terms of EU imports its only 4%-5%. 300,000 jobs a year is a lot, until you consider the EU population is 500,000,000. That's manageable. Meanwhile UK business and agriculture are saying they absolutely cannot replace those workers in the short term, which means inevitable price rises and potentially loss of businesses and trade.

The EU is a behemoth compared to the UK in both size and economy. Brexit is damaging to them, but nothing even comparable to how much damage it could potentially do to Britain. We desperately need goodwill from the EU, and we're not going to get it by loudly claiming we have an upper hand or an even playing field. It's fantasy land.

 

[fcbforever]

It's also worth remembering that in 2015 53% of our imports were from the EU. We talk about the trade deficit being bad, but I'm damn sure the UK population isn't slightly interested in having its range of foods and consumer items reduced, or replaced with much more expensive versions.



I don't buy catastrophic for the EU because its all a matter of scale. 44% of UK exports to the EU, while EU exports to the UK are only 6%-7% of the EU total. In terms of EU imports its only 4%-5%. 300,000 jobs a year is a lot, until you consider the EU population is 500,000,000. That's manageable. Meanwhile UK business and agriculture are saying they absolutely cannot replace those workers in the short term, which means inevitable price rises and potentially loss of businesses and trade.

The EU is a behemoth compared to the UK in both size and economy. Brexit is damaging to them, but nothing even comparable to how much damage it could potentially do to Britain. We desperately need goodwill from the EU, and we're not going to get it by loudly claiming we have an upper hand or an even playing field. It's fantasy land.

Shhh, don't let reason get in the way of glorious Brexit and glorious Great Britain!

Will be funny to see May bend over eventually tbh.

 

[Full bodied red]

That's nice numbers you are putting out there, but they are intentionally misleading.
You completely fail to acknowledge that 263 billion pounds of trade is, in the grand scheme of the EU trade, not nearly as significant as 220 billion is for the UK. As an example, while 15% of your imports are from Germany and that might seem a lot, that is just 7,1% of German exports.

Also, it's not like, shouldn't there be an agreement, that all trade would fall flat. It would get a bit more expensive, yes. But for most things, the UK has just no other options that the EU due to its geographic position. Which in the end means the UK has got a lot more to lose and will swallow everything to stay in the single market.

No...Not intentionally misleading.

I would have liked to confirm / correct what the $43 billion represented as a % of each country's exports, but didn't know the numbers, so thanks for adding them.

While I was waiting your response, I had a dig around for some numbers....Still not got the numbers I was looking for, but a few 'finds' and comments below -

Germany - after the USA, the UK is Germany's most profitable export market with a surplus on trade with the UK at £43 billion. As most of Germany's exports are high quality / high value hard products, not services, then I wonder how may other EU countries can afford to buy all those expensive ( and desirable ) cars and machine tools to make up for the reduced sales to the UK ?

Netherlands - the UK is their second most profitable export market with a surplus of $21 billion surplus. I sanyone else inside the EU going to buy all those greenhouse grown flowers, tomatoes and cucumbers ?

Italy - the UK is second after the US with a surplus of $13 billion. Wine, pasta, Fiats and what else ?

Belgium - the UK is their third most prfitable export market with a surplus of $16 billion. That's a lot of chocolate and beer to find new homes for.

France - the UK is their most profitable export market with a $7.3 billion surplus in trade with the UK. I'm surprised - I thought the surplus would be more than that, but it's still gGoing to be difficult to find any other buyers in the EU for all that wine and cheese seeing as most other EU countries are self-sufficient in wine or cheese or both.

Spain - the UK is the third most prrofitable export market with a surplus of $5 billion. OK, they can just stop growing the fruit and veg and the grapes for the Rioja, but the EU will then have to compensate the farmers, I suppose.

Austria - the UK is the fifth most profitable market, with a surplus of $2 billion. No idea what, I can't recall buying anything here in France which came from Austria.

Portugal - another country for whom the UK is the most profitable export market with a surplus of $1.8 billion.

I still haven't got the numbers for the others...I'll also add that with the devaluation of the £, these surpluses are probably even more now.


Of course the UK has got more to lose than the EU if an agreement which doesn't suit everyone doesn't get done. But as I said, the problems with a 'no-deal' deal aren't just a problem for the UK.

 

[Kentonio]

Of course the UK has got more to lose than the EU if an agreement which doesn't suit everyone doesn't get done. But as I said, the problems with a 'no-deal' deal aren't just a problem for the UK.

They certainly aren't just a problem for the UK, but the EU companies suddenly needing new markets at the same time as the UK actually makes the UK position even worse. Any cross over areas of exports suddenly means massive new competition.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

No...Not intentionally misleading.


France - the UK is their most profitable export market with a $7.3 billion surplus in trade with the UK. I'm surprised - I thought the surplus would be more than that, but it's still gGoing to be difficult to find any other buyers in the EU for all that wine and cheese seeing as most other EU countries are self-sufficient in wine or cheese or both.

France's exports of wine to the UK is 0.28% of its total exports and cheese to the UK is 0.07% of its total exports.

However, the trade is not suddenly going to stop, it just becomes more expensive.

The biggest importers of cars produced in the UK are China and the USA who are not in the EU.

 

[Bury Red]

No...Not intentionally misleading.

I would have liked to confirm / correct what the $43 billion represented as a % of each country's exports, but didn't know the numbers, so thanks for adding them.

While I was waiting your response, I had a dig around for some numbers....Still not got the numbers I was looking for, but a few 'finds' and comments below -

Germany - after the USA, the UK is Germany's most profitable export market with a surplus on trade with the UK at £43 billion. As most of Germany's exports are high quality / high value hard products, not services, then I wonder how may other EU countries can afford to buy all those expensive ( and desirable ) cars and machine tools to make up for the reduced sales to the UK ?

All well and good if we produced our own luxury cars and machine parts, it won't just be German cars that increase in price in the UK when we leave, it will be all of them. People driving a Merc, BMW or Audi now won't be swapping it for a British made car, I'll weigh up my budget and may have to downgrade my E-class for a C-class when I get a new one although thankfully my renewal will be up before the actual Brexit so I'll not face that for 5 years.

Netherlands - the UK is their second most profitable export market with a surplus of $21 billion surplus. I sanyone else inside the EU going to buy all those greenhouse grown flowers, tomatoes and cucumbers ?

We're going to need to buy our food from somewhere, especially when the cost of UK produce rises after we refuse entry to all the seasonal labourers from the continent that the UK industry currently relies on. The ironic thing is that many of the biggest "British" food brands are now part of multinationals and are generally made in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany so we're likely to find that even stuff we considered British rises in price including the likes of Marmite, HP Sauce, Twinings, Smarties etc as they are all made elsewhere in Europe these days.

Italy - the UK is second after the US with a surplus of $13 billion. Wine, pasta, Fiats and what else ?

Belgium - the UK is their third most prfitable export market with a surplus of $16 billion. That's a lot of chocolate and beer to find new homes for.

France - the UK is their most profitable export market with a $7.3 billion surplus in trade with the UK. I'm surprised - I thought the surplus would be more than that, but it's still gGoing to be difficult to find any other buyers in the EU for all that wine and cheese seeing as most other EU countries are self-sufficient in wine or cheese or both.

Spain - the UK is the third most prrofitable export market with a surplus of $5 billion. OK, they can just stop growing the fruit and veg and the grapes for the Rioja, but the EU will then have to compensate the farmers, I suppose.

I know British wine has improved but it's still not up to scratch with the stuff we import when you compare the price bottle for bottle, it will just become more expensive for the cheaper French, Spanish, Italian and German wines and remain situation normal for the vast majority of the mid price plonk we import which comes in from Argentina, Chile, the US, Australia and South Africa for the most part.

If you want decent French cheese you're going to have to pay more for it or accept a bland British alternative like Somerset Brie, same with decent chocolate from Belgium, France and Switzerland rather than that high vegetable fat stuff that leaves a film on the roof of your mouth that we produce in the UK whilst anyone that drinks Belgian beers is hardly likely to revert to Carling.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Whether one agrees or not with Brexit, these people are a bunch of clowns who have no idea what they're doing ....

I think you have just described the majority of politicians in this country, of any colour, over the past 20 odd years.

 

[EyeInTheSky]

I don't know why people post these "look, we're doing fine" articles.

Well of course you are (shitty Sterling and lower growth aside), you're still in the EU.

Well the sky hasn't fallen which proves that all the remainders are idiots.

I checked again today and it's still up there.

If however the sky should fall after brexit it will be because of foreigners

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Well the sky hasn't fallen which proves that all the remainders are idiots.

I checked again today and it's still up there.

If however the sky should fall after brexit it will be because of foreigners

In fairness it is because many official bodies including The Bank Of England and the European Commission were badly wrong about the initial impact of Brexit.

Their projections were based on the very idea of the UK leaving the EU would cause a crisis in consumer confidence which would in turn cause significant economic contraction.

 

[Adisa]

 

[jackofalltrades]

As the proposed NIC increase for the self-employed has been dropped, where will the missing 2 billion quid come from ?

 

[devilish]

No...Not intentionally misleading.

I would have liked to confirm / correct what the $43 billion represented as a % of each country's exports, but didn't know the numbers, so thanks for adding them.

While I was waiting your response, I had a dig around for some numbers....Still not got the numbers I was looking for, but a few 'finds' and comments below -

Germany - after the USA, the UK is Germany's most profitable export market with a surplus on trade with the UK at £43 billion. As most of Germany's exports are high quality / high value hard products, not services, then I wonder how may other EU countries can afford to buy all those expensive ( and desirable ) cars and machine tools to make up for the reduced sales to the UK ?

Netherlands - the UK is their second most profitable export market with a surplus of $21 billion surplus. I sanyone else inside the EU going to buy all those greenhouse grown flowers, tomatoes and cucumbers ?

Italy - the UK is second after the US with a surplus of $13 billion. Wine, pasta, Fiats and what else ?

Belgium - the UK is their third most prfitable export market with a surplus of $16 billion. That's a lot of chocolate and beer to find new homes for.

France - the UK is their most profitable export market with a $7.3 billion surplus in trade with the UK. I'm surprised - I thought the surplus would be more than that, but it's still gGoing to be difficult to find any other buyers in the EU for all that wine and cheese seeing as most other EU countries are self-sufficient in wine or cheese or both.

Spain - the UK is the third most prrofitable export market with a surplus of $5 billion. OK, they can just stop growing the fruit and veg and the grapes for the Rioja, but the EU will then have to compensate the farmers, I suppose.

Austria - the UK is the fifth most profitable market, with a surplus of $2 billion. No idea what, I can't recall buying anything here in France which came from Austria.

Portugal - another country for whom the UK is the most profitable export market with a surplus of $1.8 billion.

I still haven't got the numbers for the others...I'll also add that with the devaluation of the £, these surpluses are probably even more now.


Of course the UK has got more to lose than the EU if an agreement which doesn't suit everyone doesn't get done. But as I said, the problems with a 'no-deal' deal aren't just a problem for the UK.

There will be repercussions on both sides of the table. However it won't everybody the same way and there might be countries that might even benefit from Brexit.

The UK till now had seen itself as cutting itself from the EU while retaining most of its current trade and wealth as if that trade and wealth is somehow static. Hence why many had criticised such attitude as cherry picking. It can't be further from the truth. Competition in the EU exist. A British car part manufacturer is still competing with a French car part manufacturer and a German car part manufacturer to sell its products to the EU market. What the EU does is to harmonise laws among those within the EU domain which create a level field environment for companies to work in.

Now what will happen if the UK leaves the EU without a deal? UK manufacturing is pretty much integrated to the EU one. Hence before the final product is on the market, its parts come and leave the UK as they are refined elsewhere. Therefore red tape and tariffs will have to be forced upon that part as it leaves and enter the union. The final product would also incur tariffs, if of course, its sold in the EU. That means that products (finished products (ex cars), unfinished products (tyres) and raw material (milk)) from the UK will become more expensive.

And what happens under such circumstances? Well, the producer will look elsewhere. That means products will be made in other EU countries, hence those areas will become richer and the areas were those products used to be made will become poorer. That surplus will reduce itself as the EU customer will be able to afford more products at the expense of the UK ones.

Sir Andrew Cook explains it magnificently at the link below.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38540813

 

[Kentonio]

In fairness it is because many official bodies including The Bank Of England and the European Commission were badly wrong about the initial impact of Brexit.

Their projections were based on the very idea of the UK leaving the EU would cause a crisis in consumer confidence which would in turn cause significant economic contraction.

Their projections were based on the principle that the UK would actually trigger article 50 soon after the vote, and not twat around for 8 months dragging it out, weren't they?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Their projections were based on the principle that the UK would actually trigger article 50 soon after the vote, and not twat around for 8 months dragging it out, weren't they?

The EU commission has recently had to upgrade its 2017 UK growth prediction that it made in November at 1% to 1.5% so they continue to be wrong. I'm not sure the prediction were made on that assumption initially either. I could be wrong though.

The OECD also recently upgraded the 2017 forecast to 1.6%.

 

[Full bodied red]

I can see where all you guys are coming from regarding which Merc you'll be able to afford ( my heart bleeds for you - how about a Jag ? ) or where Marmite is made, or having to start drinking inferior wines ( ever tried Argentinian Malbec - superb ) etc, etc.

But apart from raw materials, there is very, very little which the UK wants and / or needs which can't be manufactured in the UK or imported from countries outside the EU and which at the moment are prohibitively expensive because of EU tarifs. Same thing for the EU as well - most things currently bought from the UK can be sourced inside the EU.

My simple maths says the UK's Balance of Trade would be about $43 billion better off if that's what happens. And if it ends up with WTO tariffs, well the UK is going to be anywhere between 5% and 45% of $43 billion better off than the EU countries.

But if you guys think that Big Business in the EU is just going to shrug its shoulders and move on while the politicos in Brussels do their best to block trading deals, then I'll remind you of just how much in the pockets of Big Business ALL politicos are, even those in Brussels.

 

[PedroMendez]

Their projections were based on the principle that the UK would actually trigger article 50 soon after the vote, and not twat around for 8 months dragging it out, weren't they?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors
+

I know a little about the forecast model of your treasury (the models of the BoE won’t be completely different). They make a shit-ton of assumptions and many of these assumptions are “controversial” (e.g. the size and duration of the shock). Yet by changing some variables even a little, you might get quite different predictions. The short-term VAR analysis models are already quite problematic, but their assumptions were nothing short of crazy (or better: political motivated). Anyone should understand that predicting a “special” event like Brexit (or specific crisis) with a model that is calibrated with the data of the last 25 years is "difficult". The long-term prediction follow a different model and make slightly more sense, yet these models run also hand in hand with incredible uncertainty. The idea that anyone of us can make credible statements about the economic development of the next 10-20 years is quite laughable. These models have their utility, but you need to understand them (and statistics) at least to some extend to understand their meaning. Catchy headlines create more confusion than anything else.