Like a drop in the ocean though.
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- Thread starter Silva
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Like a drop in the ocean though.
If you say so, Germany exports twice as much to the UK as vice versa.
That says more about our love for German things as a status symbol and our complete lack of anything worthwhile exporting than it does Germany though.
We are of course, a big market for German cars for example but we're not so big a market that we couldn't easily be replaced and forgotten about.
That's the problem with this sort of thing, we think we're massive but we're not. We're certainly not big enough that the EU wouldn't take a small hit by stiffing us in trade deals and be able to replace us quite easily thereafter.
No, they exist to set common standards so one nation can't undercut another on quality, environmental protections, safety etc.
Nobody "depends", except maybe Ireland. GB's share of German exports might appear rather large at 7,1%, but it's also not like it would drop to zero. If you take into account most of the stuff you import from us you will not just stop buying.
Also, some people don't take into account that it of course will hurt both sides. But trade won't stop, it just get's a tiny bit mroe expensive. Just that the UK exports around 50% of their stuff from the EU, a number not one EU country even comes near to....so, it will hurt everyone, but the UK disproportionally more so.
Even worse is the fact that the UK imports around 70% of their goods from the EU. You can't just replace that.
As you can see, the percentages are way more interesting than the totals here. And it doesn't look good for the UK, they sould do everything and accept everything they can to have access to the free market.
Nobody needs to replace anything in a larger scale, it just get's a bit more expensive and will hurt the UK more, as they import 790 billion out of their import total of 1,13 billion to the EU.
Most countries do not depend on the UK market and the vast majority would rather lose that rather then see a contagion of countries taking similar deals to remove FOM out of the mix or have a piece of the pie regarding UK based businesses.
Regarding Germany even the German chief had come to turn to the prospect of Hard Brexit and support the EU stance to stick to its guns
https://www.ft.com/content/8eef080a-d72d-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e
I'm going to need to read up on this, but if May is committing to leaving EEA and ECJ that is not going to be within her power to promise (passporting or equivalence).
By focussing on any individual relationship within the EU you lose sight of the UK's overall weak position... the cost to the EU is spread across 26 countries.
44% of UK exports are to the EU, but only 8% of EU exports go to the UK. This imbalance is devastating to our negotiating position (although May seems to have decided there will be no negotiation and we'll just be a lot poorer).
Leaver's aren't in favour of truly free trade, which includes unrestricted freedom of movement.
Its a trading bloc, free trade within, restrictions putside. There is no contradiction.
Oh god. May's speech.
We're fecked.
We're fecked.
The people which voted.
The people who voted.
Really, you think "The people who voted" is wrong and it should be "the people which voted"?
Hammond has just threatened europe by suggesting that hes going to change the uk into a tax haven.
There is, if free trade is a good idea and creates wealth between countries inside the block why would it not be a good idea to extend that as far as possible to countries especially those with similar economies in general?
It's the people who voted, the country which..
In remainers eyes the uk will become the new Chad, why would the eu fear contagion unless Chad is better than Europe?
Watch the pound plummet again next week.
Who said that the uk will become the new chad? I didnt and i disagree to that
Now its my turn
Why would the eu allow the uk to cherry pick its deal especially when it holds the longer side of the stick? We might as well stick to our principles and let the uk make a success out of being cut from the very continent they are part of
Because you have different standards. You might say let's freely trade milk. But then you have to define what's milk. Otherwise there will be a race to the bottom on quality, animal welfare, consumer safety and so on
Can't see our governments ever letting multinational companies get away with paying only a small fraction of their tax bill in this country. That will never happen.
I don't the real issue here is FOM. The issue here is having countries leaving the EU and expecting to have the same benefits of a member. That's the sort of contagion the EU wants to avoid.
Which is fair enough. I doubt that the UK will offer Scotland the same terms they have now if it decides to leave the union.
This is going to be the strange thing with any eu uk deal...
Normally you negotiate away barriers and tariff and have to introduce standards
Here we currently have the same standards and have to introduce barriers and tariff... so I can see it being quite a nasty negotiation if it becomes too much tit for tat and politicised... but with Dutch French and German elections soon and brexit / eu reform / immigration etc likely to play a part in all three it's almost impossible to see a way any brexit negotiations won't overflow into their domestic elections... and I suspect national popularity and populism will "trump" a good deal for both sides and it will quickly become tit for tat
TBF the idea was voiced by someone of the EU and related to the problem of EU firms and countries having access to the finance available from the City. But that's why I mentioned Boris & co, they'd do very well out of a deal which allowed Access. After all, who would the non-executive directors be ? Burnley folk wouldn't see much of that dosh, imo.I'm going to need to read up on this, but if May is committing to leaving EEA and ECJ that is not going to be within her power to promise (passporting or equivalence).
By focussing on any individual relationship within the EU you lose sight of the UK's overall weak position... the cost to the EU is spread across 26 countries.
44% of UK exports are to the EU, but only 8% of EU exports go to the UK. This imbalance is devastating to our negotiating position (although May seems to have decided there will be no negotiation and we'll just be a lot poorer).
I'm going to need to read up on this, but if May is committing to leaving EEA and ECJ that is not going to be within her power to promise (passporting or equivalence).
By focussing on any individual relationship within the EU you lose sight of the UK's overall weak position... the cost to the EU is spread across 26 countries.
44% of UK exports are to the EU, but only 8% of EU exports go to the UK. This imbalance is devastating to our negotiating position (although May seems to have decided there will be no negotiation and we'll just be a lot poorer).
There will be a price to leaving the single market, no doubt. I mentioned Germany specifically, as basically they are the engine room of the EU economy. So you are saying that the EU will sign off a deal that will be very detrimental to the powerhouse economy of the EU.
Germany is a powerhouse economy in the eu but most of its wealth and status is attributed to a united europe based upon the 4 principles. Thats something worth to defend and is far more important to any business made with the uk
What Germany or any other eu country doesnt want is for countries to leave the eu because they cant get their way on a particular argument only to expect a similar deal to that of full membership minus the thing they argued about (ie cherry picking).The EU future is worth more then anything else.
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Indeed, basically we will pay a price for stopping free movement of people, and that will be in the form of some sort of tariff to trade with the EU. My point is that it doesn't make sense for the EU to make that too punitive, if it does they potentially tip themselves into recession again.
Not as detrimental as an unstable Union would be. People act as if Germany will jump to UK´s side because of the fear of diminished exports, while it is far more likely that it will lead the negotiations with driving a hard bargain. The government clearly communicated a hard stance, a stance that is backed by the big shots of the contries economy.
The Brexit will be an act which will result in nearly only losers on both ends, which is why no person with a bit of common sense over here wanted the vote to turn out the way it did. The damage will be very unevenly distributed, though.
The different scales are one of the indicators for that, but also what is traded. The German export business is mostly build on it´s tertiary sector, meaning the end production. Now, German products are not cheap, never were and never can be as it can´t rival production costs of countires like China or India. They sell because the term "Made in Germany" has established itself as a powerful global brand which stands for quality, reliability and longeviety.
Now, simply put, UK leaving the single market won´t stop the exports, but will result in a price hike of German products on the British market. How much that will impact total sell numbers is not reliably predictable, but as German products don´t compete with price alone, the damage won´t be as horrendous as Brexiters like to present it. The increased prices also won´t happen for just German products, but also for the non British competition.
I rather see struggles on the other side for smaller German firms (the so called "Mittelstand") which import British goods (which will also increase in price) for their production. They will either have to look for alternatives or brace themselves for the increased production costs.
I don't that FOM is the real issue here. The real issue is giving a good deal to a country who left the union because it didn't got exactly what they wanted. That can cause a precedent with countries leaving the union for all sort of spats only to expect the EU to give them a great deal and not being too punitive to them. Think about Scotland and the UK. If Scotland had to leave the Union and the deal given to them is so good that the Scots ends up better off then that would act as an incentive for Wales and Northern Ireland to do the same. crippling the UK's influence and causing instability in the markets which will cause recession. No union would want that
FOM was the main issue for voters.
I am referring from the EU point of view not the UK
z
ok, match started
If brexit ends up even a tenth as bad as you keep suggesting the eu's main worry should be the 60 odd million refugees from the uk as we all storm the chunnel overload the ferries and start jumping in dinghies as we burn our passports and claim refuge in the land of milk and honey
Which, as already laid out, only further shows their stupidity.
Brexit is just a prime example why having referendums on matters exceeding the local sphere are a veeeeery bad idea.
We're thinking about a trip to London this year, so at least I get to profit. Provided you still let me in.
Swap 'brexit' for the EU and turn the refugees around and this sentence is pretty much 'Vote Leave's biggest argument.
Really? I don't think that at all. In matter of fact I strongly believe that the UK will still remain a prosperous country after Brexit. What I do believe is that it will be less prosperous and influential at it is now
I'm suggesting that the UK has very little leverage in these negotiations, much less than many Brexiters would have you believe. The UK is relying on goodwill from the EU as well as continental politics aligning in such a way that Britain is not punished as an example - neither of those look particularly promising at the moment. One we cannot influence, but the current government is alienating the EU rather than appealing to their goodwill.
There are also big opportunities for Germany through a harsher post-Brexit settlement (finance and services)
Hammond hostile stance will turn the brick wall the uk is facing into a an impregnable bastion. Its time the uk acknowledge its limits and start negotationing. After all It needs europe far more than Europe need the uk.
Pound has lost over a cent in the last hour or two against both USD & Euro - $1.2043 & €1.1337
Currencies go up and down, etc.