The question i have is after exiting, will i be able to buy english bacon back home that doesnt say 'produce of holland'?
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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I thought the English liked Danish Bacon
Me and a mate were laughing about ot cos we cant get bacon like that in the supermarket here, you have to go to the butcher for it.
Lol
Finally, stricter border controls on InterLand transport
http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archiv...pping-up-border-controls-after-berlin-attack/
http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archiv...pping-up-border-controls-after-berlin-attack/
I was making a crude estimate of the overall change in the cost of living, or inflation blip, to be expected after a devaluation of the currency.
Britain currently imports about 29% of its goods and services.
Roughly 50% of her imports come from the EU - that's about 15% of everything British people buy. The pound is currently down about 6% against the Euro; if all of that increase in the sterling cost of goods imported from the Eurozone was passed on to the British consumer (which won't happen because of market pressures) a cost of living increase of 15% X .06 = .9% would be expected. That's less than a 1% rise in the cost of living from the impact on Britain of increased prices for half of her imports. That's on the assumption that all the price changes resulting from devaluation are passed on - which, as I've already said, is not going to happen.
14% of Britain's imports come from the US. That's about .14 x .29 = 4% of everything British people buy. The pound has dropped about 14% against the dollar. Under the same assumptions as above, this results in an inflation blip of .14 X .04 = .5%.
Accounting for Britain's two major trading partners, Europe and America, from which about two thirds of her imports are drawn, this gives an inflationary effect of .9 + .5 = 1.4%, under worse case conditions. If an equivalent calculation is done for Britain's other trading partners, accounting for the remaining third of her imports, I think you'll find my 2% to 3% estimate was a good first approximation, even if it was a little pessimistic.
Oil is traded in dollars which you need to factor into the price of almost everything
Luckily the UK is self-sufficient for 71% of it's goods and services and the pound won't devalue considerably more if they hard Brexit...umm, no, that's not right, is it?
You may as well treat that remaining 34% of imports as Dollars too. The vast majority of goods bought from ROW is paid for in USD. Then you probably won't be far out.
Oil imports are probably factored into that 29%? No different than any other commodity really.
Oil imports are probably factored into that 29%? No different than any other commodity really.
Erm its not just imports that you will need to factor in to inflation it is all domestic products that require imported goods which includes pretty much all industries that use oil and transport somewhere along the chain.
Oil is just one of the many things that will push prices up and as for your calculations they are based on current exchange rate where Brexit still has not taken place. And as a final note on that your calculation is based only on the inflation caused by currency devaluation and you haven't taken into account normal inflation which was already predicted at the 2% target.
Price of oil can feckk off, barrel price comes down 20%, people get 1% reduction.
Well given that the vast majority of what we pay is the vat and fuel duty on a refined product that has to be shipped around the world, processed and then transported to point of sale it sounds about about right that a drop in the crude price wouldn't necessarily follow through doesn't it?
That's a little muddled, if I may say so. That 29% import figure includes consumer goods and services, intermediate goods and services, capital goods and services, and raw materials. All inputs into the production of other goods and services, including oil, are taken into account. Nothing is overlooked.
Currencies rise and fall, sometimes by large amounts in short periods. Governments and financial authorities, being creatures of the status quo, often see devaluations in a negative light, but are usually proven wrong. Ireland, for instance, devalued the punt by 10% in 1993, with the Government, in company with the entire financial and business establishment, having fought tooth and nail to avoid it, and instead of being the predicted disaster, the devaluation proved to be a springboard for the most sustained period of economic growth in the nation's history.
What on earth are you talking about?
"Debt on our money"?
Must be one of the most ignorant posts ive read in this whole thread.
Leaving the ERM had a beneficial effect on the UK economy.
The drop in currency value reduces comparable fixed costs and labour costs, while that might not help when we compare costs with China feck me it helps if your main competitors are in Germany, The Netherlands or France.
If the option is deflation then inflation at 1 or 2 % higher than current isn't all bad either. It encourages spending and devalues debts which almost all developed nations have plenty of. It could lead to higher interest rates but there are plenty of experts saying that the continued very low interest rate policies are damaging.
The big downside of leaving would be if inward investment remained depressed but at the moment it looks like the initial shock is beginning to be overcome.
There is a time to listen to experts
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors
Humans in not being able to predict the future with 100% accuracy shocker.
Lol
Experts, we should start listening to them
Experts, we should start listening to them
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The UK is still part of the EU
As I keep insisting, Brexiteers' insistence on laughing at what they deem 'false' forecasts, instead of focussing on the core underlying expectations and assumptions just reveals a total lack of knowledge and awareness of economic sciences.
I can compare a conversation on economics with someone who believes in Brexit to arguing with a child who every time you rebuke the point goes on saying nah-nah-nah and sticking their tongue out. You just cannot win even if you know you're right.
I can compare a conversation on economics with someone who believes in Brexit to arguing with a child who every time you rebuke the point goes on saying nah-nah-nah and sticking their tongue out. You just cannot win even if you know you're right.
On another note, I noticed 10p increases on two items in my shop yesterday which constitutes anything between 5 to 10% inflation. Those take back control loving people in the north might be in for a nasty wake-up call.
Yes, but only the ones in the North, not the ones anywhere else.
Well, seeing as they go on about the poor economic conditions in the North compared to the South, you'd think they would feel the impact more heavily. I personally will be fine but it's never nice to see people inflict pain on themselves unknowingly.
I am obviously generalising here.
I am obviously generalising here.
It's knowing you are always right that is a problem for remain voters
Did you ever hear the story about the boy who cried wolf? It's a goodn
My cigarettes went up by a euro, damn that Brexit
Did you ever hear the story about the Wolf who is always right? It's going to take about 2 or 3 years to prove it but something to look forward to (or not)
I'll put a note in my diary
I've got personal and professional experience with people like you trying to intimidate me to change my opinion based on your wishes and flying unicorns. I am sorry to say you've hit a brick wall.
I'm not trying to intimidate anyone, merely counter responding to childish dig.
North is relative. The regional areas voting to leave are, without exception, to the South of me.
Responding to a factual statement about inflation with a random comment on cigarettes is not what I call responding in a logical way.
On the other point, mocking economic forecasts has been adopted by the Leave camp as a modus operandi and they have got away with it for far too long.
I wonder if you have seen the Big Short. The attitude towards someone who thinks things are about to get a whole lot worse is not too dissimilar. It'll be years before the severity of Brexit is felt. And to think the people trusted with taking back control are those same conservative toffs who would not allow more house building because their rich electors might be unhappy their peace has been disturbed despite the fact young people cannot afford a simple house.
Ok here goes, and this isn't a post for or against Brexit.
Firstly the referendum was a national vote. Yes, you could find differences in voting patterns by looking at geographical areas, but both Leave and Remain still had substantial percentages of people voting their way in all areas of the country, and all individual votes counted the same.
Secondly, as for poor economic conditions in the North, however you define that, try also looking at rural poverty and the lack of decently-paying jobs across the nation, such as the Southwest, or East Anglia; or look at conditions in the god-awful sink estates of London itself, which are just about the worst of the lot.
Maybe you'd fare better if you generalised a little less?
Fair point. Most of everything is North to me but I was referring to places like Sunderland.
The world is changing the EU needs to change too, that's why we are seeing stricter border controls and passport checks on interland travel. Did you read the interviews yesterday with Martin Schulz and Jeroen Dijselbloem, they painted a very grim picture of the EU and its failings and these are 2 big players.
If it'll be years before hardship is felt then you have time to prepare, how different do you think it will be to the usual boom and bust 7 year cycles we have seen since forever?
Here's a taster for you rightnr
The so-called Bratislava roadmap, announced in September, suggested a way forward for the EU, but was full of dull phrases such as: “The EU is not perfect but it is the best instrument we have for addressing the new challenges we are facing”, and “broaden EU consensus on long-term migration policy and apply the principles of responsibility and solidarity”.
Few eye-catching initiatives have been scheduled for 2017, as leaders both national and supranational concentrate instead on keeping the project together and stopping the rot.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister, captured the feeling when he said one of the reasons behind Europe’s vulnerability was a failure to complete ambitious changes. “We start projects but never really seem to finish them,”
The so-called Bratislava roadmap, announced in September, suggested a way forward for the EU, but was full of dull phrases such as: “The EU is not perfect but it is the best instrument we have for addressing the new challenges we are facing”, and “broaden EU consensus on long-term migration policy and apply the principles of responsibility and solidarity”.
Few eye-catching initiatives have been scheduled for 2017, as leaders both national and supranational concentrate instead on keeping the project together and stopping the rot.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister, captured the feeling when he said one of the reasons behind Europe’s vulnerability was a failure to complete ambitious changes. “We start projects but never really seem to finish them,”
Yes, a rather odd summary there. A mix of anti-north and 'silly poor people'. As Rightner might be able to see from this map, the Leave vote didn't begin at Watford Gap.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/leave-or-remain-eu-referendum-results-and-live-maps/
Not sure why some here assume I'm Juncker's family. When the referendum was first announced I wasn't even sure which way I would go if I could vote.
But having seen the appalling lies and industrial scale of demagogy from the Conservative extremists, it was clear what I would do.
I also don't think anyone defends the EU as perfect but that is a far cry from shouting the EU must be destroyed and so potentially endanger the stability of Europe, as that excuse for a politician Farage has been shouting whilst collecting tax payers' money all these years.
I, for one, think the CAP is horrendous but you don't always get everything you want and some people in the UK seem to have a problem coming to terms with that reality even though whinging is not well liked in the UK. Pretty ironic considering the whole Leave campaign instituted whinging as a natutional past time for the coming decades.
Just today China has cooled on selling their debt through London which is another blow to the fantasy of a UK opened to the world. How can someone proclaim to be opened to the world when you cannot get on with your closest neighbours?
But having seen the appalling lies and industrial scale of demagogy from the Conservative extremists, it was clear what I would do.
I also don't think anyone defends the EU as perfect but that is a far cry from shouting the EU must be destroyed and so potentially endanger the stability of Europe, as that excuse for a politician Farage has been shouting whilst collecting tax payers' money all these years.
I, for one, think the CAP is horrendous but you don't always get everything you want and some people in the UK seem to have a problem coming to terms with that reality even though whinging is not well liked in the UK. Pretty ironic considering the whole Leave campaign instituted whinging as a natutional past time for the coming decades.
Just today China has cooled on selling their debt through London which is another blow to the fantasy of a UK opened to the world. How can someone proclaim to be opened to the world when you cannot get on with your closest neighbours?
I'm fairly ambivalent about the whole thing, but I can't help but argue for the exit folks sometimes, your tosh is just about what you can expect from the Remain campaign. Basically ridicule the Brexit folks, without coming up with any real meat on the economic argument for remain other than recycling the same shit from financial institutions who have a vested interests for the UK to remain.
Nice bandwagoning there. My post is a summary based on what I have seen from the Leave side in this thread over a number of pages.
Plenty of people have tried giving proper answers and got ridiculed. Seems like making fun of others is exclusive to the Leave side but when it comes to them, their poor souls can't take it.
Plenty of people have tried giving proper answers and got ridiculed. Seems like making fun of others is exclusive to the Leave side but when it comes to them, their poor souls can't take it.