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Interesting opinion on free trade in the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...e-broken-idea-elites-deals-ceta-ttip-economic
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...e-broken-idea-elites-deals-ceta-ttip-economic
Nowt wrong with the article Stan, and I'm sure the central Eurocrats negotiating CETA and TTIP are every bit as bent and self interested as the big corporations such agreements are designed to suit. What I disagree with is this notion that we are somehow safer from these agreements by taking back control.
I have little to no faith in any politician but trust the cynical power of the 27 EU bloc vetoes that there will always be somebody who objects to something allowing the rougher edges of these deals to be knocked off before they are allowed to do us too much harm. I have absolutely zero faith however in cretins like Boris going into solo negotiations with big business in Canada or the US and retaining any degree of protection for the common man, be that a UK consumer endangered by dodgy ingredients the US FDA overlooks or a Bangladeshi sweatshop worker employed by a multinational in breach of EU anti exploitation legislation. Boris will sign up to whatever the US or Canada throw at him without even reading it and we will all reap the consequences for generations to come.
And I have zero tolerance for corporate protection, zero
There was little prospect of the EU 27 passing TTIP, the UK alone however will, and a worse deal as we've nowhere near eqaul to the US
So economic protectionism is good but not when it extends to the labour force, even if it is a points based immigration system?
The EU is already contemplating such measures for UK travellers, irrespective of Brexit. Our non-Schengen status is the club they are using against us there.
Did Theresa May post that?
It will be difficult to provide satisfaction if our Brexit isn't sufficiently hard.
David Davis.
Did Theresa May post that?
No, it is not. People who are argue for protectionism on the basis that it helps the economy are completely clueless. It is like saying climate-change is a hoax. Economists know very little, but that is one of the 2-3 establish facts: Free trade creates prosperity.
Now these trade deals are very imperfect, because in many ways they are not free-trade deals but “trade-management-deals”. They advance free-trade but they also do other things for good and bad reasons. Simple free-trade deals would be a very good start (abolishing all tariffs and quotas), but in a world where government interferes in every step of national economies, more cooperation and harmonization of rules makes sense.
I have no problem if anyone comes to the conclusion to oppose a specific trade deal. That can be entirely reasonable, but not on the basis, that free trade is a bad thing. The protectionist rhetoric that re-emerges at the moment (advanced both by the left and the right) is based on a mercantilist world-view that was disproven 300-400 years ago.
What kind of person bothers to post on the mail?
Have you never read their comment section? That's pretty par for the cause, albeit they left out the word 'pinko' before 'lefties'.
The sort of person who, usually, exclusively writes in their own shit. Consider it progress.
UBS: Sterling will recover by 2017
http://uk.businessinsider.com/ubs-pound-set-to-recover-by-2017-2016-10?r=US&IR=T
What?! Noooo! What will the Remoaners complain about then?!!
http://uk.businessinsider.com/ubs-pound-set-to-recover-by-2017-2016-10?r=US&IR=T
What?! Noooo! What will the Remoaners complain about then?!!
I hope for his own good that he is not trading on this advice.
I've learnt my lesson from pre-Brexit predictions
When in 2017 we won't still have any idea what Brexit would look like.
So basically UBS predict the pound will gain 14 cents against the USD between January and October 2017 but only 2 pence against the Euro in the same period. Hmm.
Luckily though they also provided 3, 6 and 12 month predictions, so we get to laugh at them 3 times instead of just once.
Nobody has the time to fact-check all these predictions.
1: Make bold statements with extreme confidence (“I can predict ΔGDPGBR for the next 21 years correct to nine decimal places.”)
2: Forget about it unless you get it right. If that is the case, you need to rub it in.
3: If someone is so petty to point out, that you got it wrong: Explain why your prediction was still kind of correct (in theory) and that you couldn’t have known otherwise. (“The wrong prediction just proves that I really understand what I am talking about.”)
4: Repeat these steps as often as possible. It is a numbers game. Getting it wrong 9/10 times doesn’t matter.
2: Forget about it unless you get it right. If that is the case, you need to rub it in.
3: If someone is so petty to point out, that you got it wrong: Explain why your prediction was still kind of correct (in theory) and that you couldn’t have known otherwise. (“The wrong prediction just proves that I really understand what I am talking about.”)
4: Repeat these steps as often as possible. It is a numbers game. Getting it wrong 9/10 times doesn’t matter.
I'd expected there to be different phases to all this. This phase could be like the Phoney War. Things are happening off-stage, plans are being laid down for next year. If the s*** is going to hit the fan, surely it'll begin after Article 50 has been invoked and get worse when the conditions set by the EU, if they go for an even harder Brexit, are made public. Finally, how much everything affects the UK and its response to the challenges which will arise.
I also think that the focus has been mainly on the economics of the situation but there is another aspect which will kick in, for better or worse, later. The politics.
I also think that the focus has been mainly on the economics of the situation but there is another aspect which will kick in, for better or worse, later. The politics.
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MPs elect Hilary Benn to chair Brexit select committee
Prominent remain campaigner easily wins vote to chair committee, with Yvette Cooper to head home affairs select committee
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-hilary-benn-to-chair-brexit-select-committee
And some have wondered why much of the Commons isn't trusted on EU policy. They don't even have the perception or humility to decide upon a Leave representative which they respect.
Prominent remain campaigner easily wins vote to chair committee, with Yvette Cooper to head home affairs select committee
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-hilary-benn-to-chair-brexit-select-committee
And some have wondered why much of the Commons isn't trusted on EU policy. They don't even have the perception or humility to decide upon a Leave representative which they respect.
Good.
It's a bit like asking a Scotsman to pick the England team, he'd probably pick something better than we have.
So let me get this straight. We are supposed to believe experts when the predict dire consequences but not when they predict things are not going to be that bad? Or is it when we agree with the prediction then we believe in them? Or are there not really any experts at predicting the economic future and Brexiters were right not to be moved by speculation?
I get so confused.
economists massively overestimate the knowledge they actually have when they talk about macro. It has a lot to do with the way economics is taught and practised nowadays. That is not just a problem of economics, but of social science in general. These academics/experts come up with a lot of genuine inside, but also with a lot of bullshit. The mechanisms of self-correction, that is incredible successful in natural sciences doesn't work anywhere near as good in social science. That is mostly down to the complexity of the subject and they way knowledge is actually created/checked in these fields. There are also cultural problems (a lot of delusion) and issues of bad incentives. So the answer would be to trust some experts, but not all. Obviously all these things apply to the brexit and the remain camp.
That doesn't mean, that we can't make any prediction at all about future developments. There are a lot of good reasons to believe that Brexit will hurt the British economy. Yet when somebody is pretending to put an exact number to these things based on models that use 10th grade maths, I'd be rather sceptic.
Lets take a look at the business insider article about the UBS memo: When somebody is coming up with numbers like this they are usually full of shit. Economic predictions are always about probabilities. So presenting this number without any confidence interval or at least a basic discussion about different out-comes and their probability means that this prediction has no credibility.
If we look at the content of their argument it boils down to "we don't think that a hard-brexit is likely, while markets are overestimating the likelihood of such an event". Predicting the outcomes of this negotiation-process is just random guess-work. It is also worth noting, that they don't dispute that the pound could fall further if it comes to a "hard-Brexit".
So you could re-phrase their argument like this: If the outcome of the negotiations doesn't change a lot for the economy, the pound might rebound to the value that it had before the vote. Well...I don't disagree with that.
Pretty much I'd say
They can only be judged on historic events and not future predictions
Gods, what a stupid name, David Davis...who named him? some half-wit with a stutter
It annoys me that even if by some miracle the 27 decide to take a conciliatory approach and allow us some kind of deal, you just know this will be trumpeted by the press and politicians as a great victory over europe.
It's not going to happen so don't worry.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...f-no-eu-trade-deal-is-struck-by-a7371376.html
Brexit: David Davis agrees that businesses face 'cliff edge' threat if no EU trade deal is struck by 2019
Brexit: David Davis agrees that businesses face 'cliff edge' threat if no EU trade deal is struck by 2019
Jeez is David Davy Davis listening to experts now? Brexit means Brexit and its going to be a massive success. The EU will be begging to make a trade deal with the British empire
This is an odd criticism to have, Nick. Select committees are there to scrutinise government departments, not agree with them.