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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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I really haven't been following this thread or indeed Brexit in the news for quite some time. Honestly I haven't really noticed any impact on my daily life as yet, I am sure others have though.

What kind of issues are people experiencing on a personal level since Brexit? I mean from your own personal experiences.
 
markhughes said:
I really haven't been following this thread or indeed Brexit in the news for quite some time. Honestly I haven't really noticed any impact on my daily life as yet, I am sure others have though.

What kind of issues are people experiencing on a personal level since Brexit? I mean from your own personal experiences.
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- A chair I ordered online incurred £70 of customs duties. In the end the retailer reimbursed me.
- Ocado replaced my Vanilla Soy Milk with disappointing regular soy milk
- The German border guards stamped my passport slightly aggressively
 
markhughes said:
I really haven't been following this thread or indeed Brexit in the news for quite some time. Honestly I haven't really noticed any impact on my daily life as yet, I am sure others have though.

What kind of issues are people experiencing on a personal level since Brexit? I mean from your own personal experiences.
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Pretty much none for me either aside from a few substitutions in my online grocery shopping. I don't go in store so I don't see empty shelves but I can get nearly all what I want from Asda online. There seems to be a lot of panic buying of fuel today so maybe there will be a gap in supply soon, although with everyone having full tanks I don't imagine it will last too long. I can't help but think all this 'christmas will be cancelled' just the press being the press. The Co-op CEO said 'Christmas won't be cancelled, there will be Turkey but there won't be a choice of 6 sizes of Turkey this year'. That's what it feels like to me stepping outside of the political arguments and hysteria, choice has just been reduced a bit.
 
Talking to a Brexiteer earlier who was blaming Covid for supply issues & the media for scaremongering. Refuses to acknowledge that Brexit has any part to play in the chaos.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
No matter how bad it gets, and this is only the beginning they'll never admit that Brexit is the cause.
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It's not the cause but it's part of the problem.

According to some logistics bod on Radio 4 this morning the loss of Eastern European workers accounts for 25% of the shortfall. It's an issue that's been brewing for years and part of the problem has been the cheap labour that came from Eastern Europe which has enabled companies to engage in a race to the bottom when it comes the standard of driving jobs. Wages have been stagnent for years and working conditions are very poor. The sector has been unable to attract younger workers for a long time now because of this and the workforce has been aging as a result. What's happened since the pandemic is that there has been an exodus of older workers from the sector and new drivers have been unable to learn and get their license, although this won't be enough to solve the issue on it's own. There are actually enough HGV licenses in the country to cover the issue but not enough people want to take the jobs.

Brexit in and of itself doesn't even preclude labour supply from Eastern Europe. The whole point of the imigration policy as it was sold to the public was that it would be tailored to suit the needs of the economy. The Tories have made this strange political choice not to grant temporary visas to drivers from the EU, although I'd imagine they'll renege on this fairly soon.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
It's not the cause but it's part of the problem.

According to some logistics bod on Radio 4 this morning the loss of Eastern European workers accounts for 25% of the shortfall. It's an issue that's been brewing for years and part of the problem has been the cheap labour that came from Eastern Europe which has enabled companies to engage in a race to the bottom when it comes the standard of driving jobs. Wages have been stagnent for years and working conditions are very poor. The sector has been unable to attract younger workers for a long time now because of this and the workforce has been aging as a result. What's happened since the pandemic is that there has been an exodus of older workers from the sector and new drivers have been unable to learn and get their license, although this won't be enough to solve the issue on it's own. There are actually enough HGV licenses in the country to cover the issue but not enough people want to take the jobs.

Brexit in and of itself doesn't even preclude labour supply from Eastern Europe. The whole point of the imigration policy as it was sold to the public was that it would be tailored to suit the needs of the economy. The Tories have made this strange political choice not to grant temporary visas to drivers from the EU, although I'd imagine they'll renege on this fairly soon.
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There have been historical shortfalls of HGV drivers all over Europe for many, many years. All of Europe have Covid as well. if the EU workers have gone back to the EU then that helps reduce the vacancies for drivers in the EU. The HGV licence could apply to any country except that if you've only just passed your test you're not going to get insured usually for two or three years to drive a massive artic. Why would anyone who has been told he is unwelcome in the UK go back to get a job when according to the UK the rest of Europe are so short of drivers as well. Reducing the standard of tests is very dangerous, no other country is doing this.

No other EU countries have food shortages, no other EU countries have people queuing up for petrol.

And the real problems haven't even started yet, checking of EU goods and new UK standards are going to be a really serious problem amongst other things due to come into force between now and 2024.
 
Besides being a shitty job, with risks, with terrible schedules, with 0 family conciliation and low wages, a truck career is a death career. in a few years automation will make them obsolete

Now, blaming what is happening to Brexit as a whole is a mistake. It is happening worldwide (not only europe), is structural. No one wants this life or at least at these wages. as much as this is undeniable, is undeniable that Brexit made it more acute. If not we would seen replicating the fuel shortages and others in other countries that they feel the stress on the problem but not at those lengths. And talking about numbers, UK needs 90.000 drivers of the 400.000 needed in europe. Almost 1/4 of them being a being less of a 1/10 of the population
 
Surely the free market should kick into action here and a rise in drivers wages will result in a boom in the industry?
 
ha_rooney said:
Talking to a Brexiteer earlier who was blaming Covid for supply issues & the media for scaremongering. Refuses to acknowledge that Brexit has any part to play in the chaos.
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It's hard to unpick how much of the current problems are specifically down to Brexit, Covid causing supply bottlenecks, shipping issues, the energy crisis and CO2 shortage, structural problems in the haulage sector etc...It's a whole of shite all at once, but it's pretty naive to think Brexit is having zero impact. Add in the global microchip shortage and you can see how many dislocations there are within world trade at the moment though.
 
Pexbo said:
Surely the free market should kick into action here and a rise in drivers wages will result in a boom in the industry?
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It's one of these jobs that has a barrier to entry, the theories of pure free market don't actually apply.
 
markhughes said:
I really haven't been following this thread or indeed Brexit in the news for quite some time. Honestly I haven't really noticed any impact on my daily life as yet, I am sure others have though.

What kind of issues are people experiencing on a personal level since Brexit? I mean from your own personal experiences.
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The direct impacts on our lives so far, eg having to change pet supplies provider because they stopped shipping to the UK after Brexit, no doubt sound petty. It's more the intangibles, like reduced confidence in the asset management industry hitting advertising and therefore my employer's profits, with the obvious knock-on effect on wage rises.
That's before you even think about the losses to the exchequer which will impact all our lives when the government is spending and investing way less in public services and job creation.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
There have been historical shortfalls of HGV drivers all over Europe for many, many years. All of Europe have Covid as well. if the EU workers have gone back to the EU then that helps reduce the vacancies for drivers in the EU. The HGV licence could apply to any country except that if you've only just passed your test you're not going to get insured usually for two or three years to drive a massive artic. Why would anyone who has been told he is unwelcome in the UK go back to get a job when according to the UK the rest of Europe are so short of drivers as well. Reducing the standard of tests is very dangerous, no other country is doing this.

No other EU countries have food shortages, no other EU countries have people queuing up for petrol.

And the real problems haven't even started yet, checking of EU goods and new UK standards are going to be a really serious problem amongst other things due to come into force between now and 2024.
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The industry spokespeople I've heard speaking on recruiting from Eastern Europe in logistics, farming etc is that if the visa rules are relaxed then they can get people. I'd imagine they're in touch with agencies to be so confident. The money would be the main motivator for the workers. Those with the greatest need will pay the most money.

Pexbo said:
Surely the free market should kick into action here and a rise in drivers wages will result in a boom in the industry?
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In the short term there’s too much logjam getting people qualified in time because the pandemic shutdown lessons and testing for about 18 months. In the medium term it should attract more workers and the industry hopes that it will force improvements in working conditions as well. The kicker will be that the cost of consumer goods will go up.
 
Boris is going to save Christmas again.

Supply chain crisis: Tories poised to U-turn on foreign worker visas
Boris Johnson believed to have overruled ministers unwilling to compromise on post-Brexit immigration as queues mount at petrol stations


Ministers are poised to agree an extraordinary post-Brexit U-turn that would see foreign lorry drivers allowed back into the UK to stave off shortages threatening fuel and food supplies.
Boris Johnson ordered a rapid fix on Friday to prevent the crisis escalating. Ministers met in a bid to agree a short-term visa scheme permitting potentially thousands more lorry drivers from abroad to come to the UK.

The prime minister is understood to have weighed in to demand a compromise from his warring cabinet, which was split over the issue, following scenes of chaotic queues at some petrol stations and warnings from suppliers that the shortage of fuel on forecourts could worsen.
The shortage of up 100,000 heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers – exacerbated by the pandemic and Brexit – has also impacted the food sector and other industries. The British Retail
Consortium warned on Friday that significant disruption to Christmas was “inevitable” unless the problem is contained in the next 10 days.

The prime minister and his cabinet have publicly played down the extent of the problem. A senior government source said some ministers appeared keen to avoid the perception that Brexit was to blame, and were therefore reluctant to relax immigration rules.
However, the Office of National Statistics revealed that millions of people were already facing empty supermarket shelves, with one in six struggling to find “essential” items.
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https://www.theguardian.com/busines...risis-tories-poised-turn-foreign-worker-visas
 
Classical Mechanic said:
The industry spokespeople I've heard speaking on recruiting from Eastern Europe in logistics, farming etc is that if the visa rules are relaxed then they can get people. I'd imagine they're in touch with agencies to be so confident. The money would be the main motivator for the workers. Those with the greatest need will pay the most money.



In the short term there’s too much logjam getting people qualified in time because the pandemic shutdown lessons and testing for about 18 months. In the medium term it should attract more workers and the industry hopes that it will force improvements in working conditions as well. The kicker will be that the cost of consumer goods will go up.
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Why would they come to the UK. They can work anywhere in the EU. Heard a story about the UK giving a temporary visa to Ukrainian workers (just different non-EU East Europeans) who were employed picking fruit/veg in the summer, they were transported to the UK at the farmer's cost, paid high salaries but stopped working when they had earnt enough and they went on holiday and left half the harvest left ungathered.

Maybe I'm missing something here but the freedom of movement was stopped for factory processing staff, fruit/veg pickers, care workers, drivers, dustbin collectors, cleaners, in fact any job a British person didn't want to do, all these people were told they weren't welcome so they went back home or to another EU country.
Maybe some will be desperate for money but why would anyone do that apart from a similar job to students picking grapes in France.
Or because the UK couldn't give a stuff about these people and think they will come at their bidding and they can p!ss off again when they've finished.
 
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Paul the Wolf said:
Why would come to the UK. They can work anywhere in the EU. Heard a story about the UK giving a temporary visa to Ukrainian workers (just different non-EU East Europeans) who were employed picking fruit/veg in the summer, they were transported to the UK at the farmer's cost, paid high salaries but stopped working when they had earnt enough and they went on holiday and left half the harvest left ungathered.

Maybe I'm missing something here but the freedom of movement was stopped for factory processing staff, fruit/veg pickers, care workers, drivers, dustbin collectors, cleaners, in fact any job a British person didn't want to do, all these people were told they weren't welcome so they went back home or to another EU country.
Maybe some will be desperate for money but why would anyone do that apart from a similar job to students picking grapes in France.
Or because the UK couldn't give a stuff about these people and think they will come at their bidding and they can p!ss off again when they've finished.
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Because that isn't how people think Paul. There are still literally millions of EU workers here in the UK. The wages here are still higher than in many EU countries. It's still the biggest English speaking country in Europe by far.

People regularly go to countries where the immigration system isn't particularly pleasant. I spent literally about 6 months and thousands of pounds getting my visa for Australia. They also have seasonal agricultural workers.

France and the UK have roughly equivalent population and economy sizes, I'm pretty sure France isn't suddenly going to absorb double the amount of workers from Eastern/ Southern Europe they usually do becuase they're all going there rather than the UK.
 
markhughes said:
I really haven't been following this thread or indeed Brexit in the news for quite some time. Honestly I haven't really noticed any impact on my daily life as yet, I am sure others have though.

What kind of issues are people experiencing on a personal level since Brexit? I mean from your own personal experiences.
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Honestly absolutely nothing so far, other than a stethoscope taking slightly longer to arrive than it might otherwise have done (4 days) and the fact I haven't seen my favourite ginger beer in the supermarket for a couple of months now.

My son has gone to Amsterdam for a little while though to be with some friends and he's going to have to come back soon as he can't stay more than 3 months without getting another type of visa.

More generally though, I guess it's still things like the ongoing embarrassment and anger at the situation.
 
africanspur said:
Because that isn't how people think Paul. There are still literally millions of EU workers here in the UK. The wages here are still higher than in many EU countries. It's still the biggest English speaking country in Europe by far.

People regularly go to countries where the immigration system isn't particularly pleasant. I spent literally about 6 months and thousands of pounds getting my visa for Australia. They also have seasonal agricultural workers.

France and the UK have roughly equivalent population and economy sizes, I'm pretty sure France isn't suddenly going to absorb double the amount of workers from Eastern/ Southern Europe they usually do becuase they're all going there rather than the UK.
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There are a few differences - The UK is no longer in the EU. Of course there are seasonal workers , always have been. What does being an English speaking country have to do with it?
Another point is that the UK government is telling people the EU are suffering shortages as well so maybe other EU countries so maybe we can absorb more workers;
The direction keeps changing constantly anything, anything at all, but admit Brexit is the main problem. It's unbelievable. And it's not just Brexiteers.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
There are a few differences - The UK is no longer in the EU. Of course there are seasonal workers , always have been. What does being an English speaking country have to do with it?
Another point is that the UK government is telling people the EU are suffering shortages as well so maybe other EU countries so maybe we can absorb more workers;
The direction keeps changing constantly anything, anything at all, but admit Brexit is the main problem. It's unbelievable. And it's not just Brexiteers.
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Right but the initial point was that if the government decided to, it could open up temporary visas again for EU workers to work in those sectors. It's making a political decision not to.

Your response was that even if they did, EU citizens wouldn't bother coming because why would they come to the UK?

That English is the world language and most people grow up learning that as a second language? Making it easier to get a job in a country that speaks English, rather than having to learn a new language (this was a general point about immigration, not about fruit pickers or lorry drivers, who I imagine don't really need to use much language) .

I don't really care what the government is saying.

Don't really know what the last paragraph is about apart from you getting yourself into a huff as usual.
 
africanspur said:
Right but the initial point was that if the government decided to, it could open up temporary visas again for EU workers to work in those sectors. It's making a political decision not to.

Your response was that even if they did, EU citizens wouldn't bother coming because why would they come to the UK?

That English is the world language and most people grow up learning that as a second language? Making it easier to get a job in a country that speaks English, rather than having to learn a new language (this was a general point about immigration, not about fruit pickers or lorry drivers, who I imagine don't really need to use much language) .

I don't really care what the government is saying.

Don't really know what the last paragraph is about apart from you getting yourself into a huff as usual.
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What? We're talking about the crap jobs , not highly qualified jobs but then you go on about speaking English which in the same sentence you admit they don't need to speak English.

I'm not in a huff, I'm so amazed and can't stop laughing at the mental contortions people do.
Yes why would EU workers return to Britain, before the pay and conditions were supposed to be crap , now they're wonderful and British people are so welcoming or perhaps they want an in depth conversation in English with a carrot they are picking whereas they couldn't understand what the french carrot was saying.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Have you seen the wages and signing on bonuses that are being offered to Class One drivers at the moment? That said, you could be right and they could be wrong. I guess we'll probably find out soon enough as the government looks like it's going to issue visas to EU workers.
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Yes but that's not an instant solution nor is it a reason why they didn't pay people properly in the first place or other people say that the wages are amazing whereas french HGV drivers I know earn between 3k and 4k minimum so which is it, difficult to keep up with.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
There are some shortages of some products which affect industry because they are purchased from the other side of the world.

There are even shortages of workers in Europe in many sectors as there was before Covid, before Brexit, for many years; it's nothing new.

One bonus of Brexit is that these workers who were working in the UK are now working within the EU so the EU countries gained. There are plenty of trucks from all over the EU delivering. The only trucks you don't see, which you did before are British trucks.

Remember one of the 'reasons' for Brexit, 'they're taking all our jobs' I know half a dozen French truck drivers and their wages are more than double minimum wage.
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I don't agree with all of this but, my neighbour is talking about becoming a lorry driver in the UK and earning a lawyers salary. Truck drivers here from Eastern Europe won a court case to get the same pay as locals so this shows that eu countries are still practicing slave labour
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Have you seen the wages and signing on bonuses that are being offered to drivers at the moment? That said, you could be right and they could be wrong. I guess we'll probably find out soon enough as the government looks like it's going to issue visas to EU workers.
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IIRC, one of the problems for drivers is that with brexit border procedures are more time consuming which makes it not as interesting for them, on top of the pandemic being an issue. As an example many drivers do not take cargo across turkish borders because it takes too much time and apparently limits greatly the amount of cargo they can transport per weeks. So unless you are talking about exclusive intra-UK transport and that for some reason drivers would decide to limit even more the opportunity that they have to spend home, only a huge amount of money could convince most of them. Also I'm pretty sure that these drivers work for trucking companies, how many of them are self-employed?
 
Stanley Road said:
I don't agree with all of this but, my neighbour is talking about becoming a lorry driver in the UK and earning a lawyers salary. Truck drivers here from Eastern Europe won a court case to get the same pay as locals so this shows that eu countries are still practicing slave labour
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What that means is the drivers are employed by an Eastern European Truck Company or Agency, he'll spend the week picking up loads and driving round Europe. Yes I Know that happens,
If the Uk were to be stupid enough to lower the standards of the HGV test then an HGV licence got in the UK would be worthless outside the UK.
Drivers employed by UK companies (because they are not in the EU) can only make one delivery to the EU and go back.
 
JPRouve said:
IIRC, one of the problems for drivers is that with brexit border procedures are more time consuming which makes it not as interesting for them, on top of the pandemic being an issue. As an example many drivers do not take cargo across turkish borders because it takes too much time and apparently limits greatly the amount of cargo they can transport per weeks. So unless you are talking about exclusive intra-UK transport and that for some reason drivers would decide to limit even more the opportunity that they have to spend home, only a huge amount of money could convince most of them. Also I'm pretty sure that these drivers work for trucking companies, how many of them are self-employed?
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A lot of the demand is for domestic based drivers. I concede that you and Paul could be right and maybe we won't be able to recruit but it does look like we'll find out soon.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
A lot of the demand is for domestic based drivers. I concede that you and Paul could be right and maybe we won't be able to recruit but it does look like we'll find out soon.
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I think that you will find some but it's not as easy as politicians it's one of those jobs where it's not just about money because many of them already make good money. There is plenty of jobs in the EU for short haul truckers and it's not as good of proposition for long haul truckers if they have to cross a "hard" border.
 
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