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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Red Defence said:
Just read this and looked up 2 countries - Denmark and Holland. Well that's 2 of our friends in the EU.

Denmark -

Denmark has been one of the staunchest supporters of the UK’s demand for renegotiation of the British terms of membership. The current Danish government which was elected in June 2015 has been supportive of the substance of the British demands and, in a more fundamental sense, the UK’s basic approach strikes a chord with the Danish government. The reason for this has historical roots as expressed by the Danish foreign minister, Kristian Jensen, in the Folketing on 29 March 2016:

Denmark and the UK have a close historical relationship, … we entered the EU at the same time… we have been accompanying each other and we have had joint priorities on the way in the struggle to ensure that the EU was … efficiently managed … with a focus on competitivity [and] job creation, and we often see eye to eye….from a Danish point of view an EU without the UK will be a different EU, a weaker EU…without the same cultural plurality… and …political impact.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/...ark-italy-the-netherlands-slovenia-and-spain/

Holland -

The words: "Don't leave me this way," in English, and the Union Jack splashed across the front page of Wednesday's
edition of the best-selling daily newspaper Algemeen Dagblad reflect the general view of the Dutch establishment about a possible Brexit.

The Dutch currently hold the presidency of the EU, but it is not just the prospect of an unprecedented crisis happening on their watch that is causing jitters in the Netherlands.

Dutch politicians, especially on the right, regard Britain as a bulwark against the more protectionist tendencies of some of the bigger EU states.

As one of the grand old men of Dutch politics, the former leader of the centre right VVD party and former EU Commissioner Frits Bolkestein told me: "Holland and Britain look at the seas.

"We are maritime people and believe in trade with other parts of the world.

"Continental powers, like France and Germany, very important members of the EU, think differently."

So, what if Britain left the EU?

"The Dutch would feel they've lost an important ally in the balance of powers within the European Union," he said.

"Our message is, 'Hang in there, don't leave Holland, support free trade.'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36549603
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You're confusing friends with allies. For example, during WW2 the UK allied with the USA and the Russians against the Nazis. That didn't stop Churchill to draft operation unthinkable who would have seen British-German-US forces invading Russia with the aid of the atomic bomb. Friends work differently. For example Blair supported Bush in Iraq even though he probably suspected he will get screwed by it.

As EU member, the UK is a valid ally. Its (or was) a staunch supporter of the pro business vibe, its against red tape and the one fits all mentality. Once outside the EU, the UK will have little say with what happens within the EU and will become a competitor. No one like competitors especially those who cant resist insulting their competition.
 
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£ and € will definitely reach parity at some point in the coming months.
 
devilish said:
You'll find plenty of people who wouldn't want the UK gone. Even my country had been pretty vocal about your concerns about the EU. However things change quickly when you ask them if they want to get screwed by you on their way out

The UK within the EU can be an ally. The UK outside the EU is a competitor. No one likes to help competitors
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The EU will make the best deal for the EU and will only give something to the UK if it is to their benefit, which isn't really a surprise. I doubt they will punish the UK even if the result is punishing.
 
Adisa said:
£ and € will definitely reach parity at some point in the coming months.
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I got 1.0013 from one of the no commission cash dispensers at the airport on the way over to Slovenia last week so we're not that far off on a personal level.
 
Bury Red said:
I got 1.0013 from one of the no commission cash dispensers at the airport on the way over to Slovenia last week so we're not that far off on a personal level.
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I was getting 0.94 from some places in Barcelona a few weeks back.
 
Wibble said:
The EU will make the best deal for the EU and will only give something to the UK if it is to their benefit, which isn't really a surprise. I doubt they will punish the UK even if the result is punishing.
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If you ask me, I think the EU will give the UK a cosmetic deal which is not what the UK needs. Its not a matter of punishing the UK. Its a matter of setting a deal all 27 countries will agree upon in a ridiculous time window of just 2 years.
 
devilish said:
You're confusing friends with allies. For example, during WW2 the UK allied with the USA and the Russians against the Nazis. That didn't stop Churchill to draft operation unthinkable who would have seen British-German-US forces invading Russia with the aid of the atomic bomb. Friends work differently. For example Blair supported Bush in Iraq even though he probably suspected he will get screwed by it.

As EU member, the UK is a valid ally. Its (or was) a staunch supporter of the pro business vibe, its against red tape and the one fits all mentality. Once outside the EU, the UK will have little say with what happens within the EU and will become a competitor. No one like competitors especially those who cant resist insulting their competition.
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You are also confusing friends with allies. There are no friends among countries, only allies. You've got it wrong about Blair and Bush too. They weren't friends they were allies, because the countries are allies.
 
Rightnr said:
Your posts are a fine example of Brexiters' firmly head in the sand approach.

It's exactly because of such attitudes that the referendum should never have taken place.
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Eventually some will realise that we are more than capable of standing on our own two feet, it will take time and they'll be loathe to admit it but they will realise. Until then these same people will continue to make derogatory posts about Brexiters. Fortunately our attitudes to the EU were what gave us a referendum and ultimately gave us Brexit. We took our head out of the sand and looked intently at the EU for what it was rather than what we were led to believe it was. I'll be forever grateful that enough of us had the courage and sense to do that and to speak out.
 
Red Defence said:
Eventually some will realise that we are more than capable of standing on our own two feet, it will take time and they'll be loathe to admit it but they will realise. Until then these same people will continue to make derogatory posts about Brexiters. Fortunately our attitudes to the EU were what gave us a referendum and ultimately gave us Brexit. We took our head out of the sand and looked intently at the EU for what it was rather than what we were led to believe it was. I'll be forever grateful that enough of us had the courage and sense to do that and to speak out.
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Most of the stuff Brexiters, including yourself, whine about are the product of the unfair system in the UK. But do go on playing the Joan of Arc role, it suits you.
 
Rightnr said:
Most of the stuff Brexiters, including yourself, whine about are the product of the unfair system in the UK. But do go on playing the Joan of Arc role, it suits you.
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Come back to me when we fail to flourish out of the EU. Or when the EU falls apart. Until then we should just accept that our opinions differ and as yet neither of us have any idea whether out or in will be the best way forward. We will in time though.
 
devilish said:
If these countries had made a stand with the US, an economy which is far richer and bigger then the UK and which unlike the UK it had never turned its back to Europe, then why should they work differently with you?


I am sure that they will offer a trade deal and they will do that to save Europe's blushes and not make themselves look like cnuts in front of the world fora. With that deal be acceptable? I much doubt it.
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For the last time - I'm not British!:D

The EU's position on the proposed TTIP agreement with the US is based on a judgement that such a change in its existing trade relationship with America would be detrimental to its interests.

The EU has an existing trade relationship with Britain from which both parties benefit. The introduction of significant trade restrictions will disrupt that relationship and be harmful to both Britain and the EU. It makes more sense to let sleeping dogs lie.

There's a difference between telling workers all across Europe: "You must lose your jobs because we want to make an example of the bad British", and rejecting a radical alteration in the way Europe presently does business with the US.

The EU has a larger economy than Britain and has the advantage in that respect. But the British economy is not chopped liver and the EU can't hurt Britain without hurting itself. The British will come to the negotiating table as junior partners, not with a begging bowl. In the final analysis commonsense will prevail and all the multi-various strands linking Europe and Britain won't be cut out of a transient sense of pique.

I've said the same thing on this subject now for several posts going back to before the referendum. There's no point in saying it again. We'll see what happens. If I'm wrong and still around, I'll come to this thread and acknowledge my mistake.
 
Will Absolute said:
For the last time - I'm not British!:D

The EU's position on the proposed TTIP agreement with the US is based on a judgement that such a change in its existing trade relationship with America would be detrimental to its interests.

The EU has an existing trade relationship with Britain from which both parties benefit. The introduction of significant trade restrictions will disrupt that relationship and be harmful to both Britain and the EU. It makes more sense to let sleeping dogs lie.

There's a difference between telling workers all across Europe: "You must lose your jobs because we want to make an example of the bad British", and rejecting a radical alteration in the way Europe presently does business with the US.

The EU has a larger economy than Britain and has the advantage in that respect. But the British economy is not chopped liver and the EU can't hurt Britain without hurting itself. The British will come to the negotiating table as junior partners, not with a begging bowl. In the final analysis commonsense will prevail and all the multi-various strands linking Europe and Britain won't be cut out of a transient sense of pique.

I've said the same thing on this subject now for several posts going back to before the referendum. There's no point in saying it again. We'll see what happens. If I'm wrong and still around, I'll come to this thread and acknowledge my mistake.
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But you do realize that the UK and not the EU want to change the relationship? If the UK wants to leave the single market, non-tariff-barriers will exist again, just like with any other country that isn’t part of the single market. That has nothing to do with punishment or hostile behavior.

The EU will offer the UK a deal, that is somewhat similar to the ones that they have with other nations. In the end the UK has to decide what it wants, but it can hardly complain about getting unfair treatment. Tariff barriers won’t be a big issue anyway, because despite all the misinformation, that EU doesn’t have big tariffs on imports/exports (on average). The reduction of internal non-tariff barriers is what makes the single market so special, but that is precisely the part that the UK wants out of.

We’ll see what this means for the British economy, but it is common knowledge, that NTBs will affect the British exporting particularly strongly, because (financial)services and goods like drugs/ pharmaceutical products face a lot more regulation.
 
It seems on this board at least the people most worried about Brexit are foreign, or Brits living abroad. This could mean the real Brits are all a bit on the thick side of course, but it is odd. Some of the foreign members are absolutely obsessed with the subject. Always an interesting read though.
 
712 said:
It seems on this board at least the people most worried about Brexit are foreign, or Brits living abroad. This could mean the real Brits are all a bit on the thick side of course, but it is odd. Some of the foreign members are absolutely obsessed with the subject. Always an interesting read though.
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With Stan and Will in your corner you're hardly in a position to call out any of the Remainers credentials. Most of us who live it on a daily basis have just given up responding to most of the same old bullshit posted by the Brexiters in here. As many of your lot are now saying, it's a done deal and we'll only get to see how bad things are going to get when/if A50 is activated and the negotiation process is well underway.

I'd stand by every prediction I have made about quite how bad things will get and am not surprised in the least that the tories are proposing foreigner registration already since we have legitimised immigration as the key topic of national importance and need to be clear on how we're going to round 'em up and ship 'em out. We're just so proud that you lot are going to make Britain great again but hope that at some time soon realisation is going to dawn on you all that this move is completely and utterly fecking stupid and will sink this country, not much hope though so we're manning our lifeboats to feck off from this petty, vicious little country once and for all when you lot have done royally screwing things up.
 
712 said:
It seems on this board at least the people most worried about Brexit are foreign, or Brits living abroad. This could mean the real Brits are all a bit on the thick side of course, but it is odd. Some of the foreign members are absolutely obsessed with the subject. Always an interesting read though.
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Probably looking in from the outside a more rational perspective can be gained; the rest of Europe on the whole would like the UK to remain part of the EU to provide balance politically and continue trading as they have.
Another advantage is that those outside the UK have not been brainwashed by Boris, Farage and the like or be subjected to newspapers like the Sun, Mail, Telegraph and Express.

The Uk should look internally for their problems rather than trying to blame everyone else or think that the grass is always greener .. etc
 
Red Defence said:
Come back to me when we fail to flourish out of the EU. Or when the EU falls apart. Until then we should just accept that our opinions differ and as yet neither of us have any idea whether out or in will be the best way forward. We will in time though.
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Again your views are pure fantasy. Why should I and other sensible people have to defend the position that leaving the biggest trade market in the world will make you worse off? If you had a job but you got sacked and someone came along and said 'prove to me that you won't be better off sacked than in work' you'd laugh. And you are putting the onus on remain voters to demonstrate why you're delusional? I despair.
 
Bury Red said:
With Stan and Will in your corner you're hardly in a position to call out any of the Remainers credentials. Most of us who live it on a daily basis have just given up responding to most of the same old bullshit posted by the Brexiters in here. As many of your lot are now saying, it's a done deal and we'll only get to see how bad things are going to get when/if A50 is activated and the negotiation process is well underway.

I'd stand by every prediction I have made about quite how bad things will get and am not surprised in the least that the tories are proposing foreigner registration already since we have legitimised immigration as the key topic of national importance and need to be clear on how we're going to round 'em up and ship 'em out. We're just so proud that you lot are going to make Britain great again but hope that at some time soon realisation is going to dawn on you all that this move is completely and utterly fecking stupid and will sink this country, not much hope though so we're manning our lifeboats to feck off from this petty, vicious little country once and for all when you lot have done royally screwing things up.
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Nice assumptions about 'your corner' and 'you lot' Bury, I voted Remain and would vote Remain again.
And where did I 'call out credentials' exactly? I made no criticism except in your paranoid head. Read Paul's reply below.
I do have views on how to go about Brexit now it's here, but that doesn't mean it is what I wanted.

Paul the Wolf said:
Probably looking in from the outside a more rational perspective can be gained; the rest of Europe on the whole would like the UK to remain part of the EU to provide balance politically and continue trading as they have.
Another advantage is that those outside the UK have not been brainwashed by Boris, Farage and the like or be subjected to newspapers like the Sun, Mail, Telegraph and Express.
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A lot in this Paul, I'm sure.
 
Rightnr said:
Again your views are pure fantasy. Why should I and other sensible people have to defend the position that leaving the biggest trade market in the world will make you worse off? If you had a job but you got sacked and someone came along and said 'prove to me that you won't be better off sacked than in work' you'd laugh. And you are putting the onus on remain voters to demonstrate why you're delusional? I despair.
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There aren't any views in that post. Anyway, it's pointless to keep moaning and whinging about Brexit because the vote was won and we will leave. It's even more pointless to keep insulting people who think differently than you.
 
Red Defence said:
There aren't any views in that post. Anyway, it's pointless to keep moaning and whinging about Brexit because the vote was won and we will leave. It's even more pointless to keep insulting people who think differently than you.
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There're no insults there but a nice simile trying to show why I think your views are irrational. It reflects the reality of the situation. As for Brexit, there's no point arguing about staying in the EU even though that's the best option but a hard brexit will be an economic Russian roulette and the people with no rational thought who are proven failures and lack proper knowledge, such as Davis, Fox and Duncan-Smith, should not be allowed to make those decisions. Also, this bit about 'no complaining' did not seem to be preached by Brexiters on their issue before the referendum and now all of a sudden we all have to fall in line? I thought Brexiters loved democracy?

By the way, I am not British but I saw my future in this country before the vote. I am not sure I'm welcomed any more after it and no amount of 'reassurances' can hide the fact the environment is pretty nasty towards foreigners based on nothing whatsoever except jealousy and irrational fears preached by the Farage and his ilk (who btw got his German passport immediately after the vote...).

My job is to look at risks, so if I had a penny for the amount of times someone told me to stop 'moaning' and then I was proven right, I'd be a rich man. Sometimes people with knowledge should not be afraid to take a stand against obvious lies spouted by demagogues like Farage and Boris sponsored by Murdoch (yuk, need to wash my fingers after writing his name).
 
Rightnr said:
There're no insults there but a nice simile trying to show why I think your views are irrational. It reflects the reality of the situation. As for Brexit, there's no point arguing about staying in the EU even though that's the best option but a hard brexit will be an economic Russian roulette and the people with no rational thought who are proven failures and lack proper knowledge, such as Davis, Fox and Duncan-Smith, should not be allowed to make those decisions. Also, this bit about 'no complaining' did not seem to be preached by Brexiters on their issue before the referendum and now all of a sudden we all have to fall in line? I thought Brexiters loved democracy?

By the way, I am not British but I saw my future in this country before the vote. I am not sure I'm welcomed any more after it and no amount of 'reassurances' can hide the fact the environment is pretty nasty towards foreigners based on nothing whatsoever except jealousy and irrational fears preached by the Farage and his ilk (who btw got his German passport immediately after the vote...).

My job is to look at risks, so if I had a penny for the amount of times someone told me to stop 'moaning' and then I was proven right, I'd be a rich man. Sometimes people with knowledge should not be afraid to take a stand against obvious lies spouted by demagogues like Farage and Boris sponsored by Murdoch (yuk, need to wash my fingers after writing his name).
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Well I don't know where you live but where I live I haven't come across any animosity to foreigners, before or since Brexit and for what it's worth not one single person...and I mean not one....ever mentioned immigration during any discussion about whether to vote Leave or Remain. It was always the EU/Brussels stuff that was the deciding factor.

Farage's appeal was because he gave everyone who wanted to leave the EU a "voice" so to speak, more than anything else. Before that the EU was something we just had to accept because it was impossible to leave. He made the possibility of getting out a reality. We were in something we never voted to be in so getting out was a dream for many and it had little or nothing to do with immigration. Many people wanted to leave the EU long before immigration became an issue for anyone.
 
You seem like one of those Brexiters that voted for sovereignty who claims everyone did the same, not realising 90% of the vote was down to 'we don't want any more foreigners'. Personally, I understand the concerns on immigration but they have been stoked by government policy for years and years. Nothing to do with the EU, especially because it does not control non-EU immigration.

In fact, the government has made EU's migrants life very difficult lately. I had to wait 5 months to get a work permit (I am Bulgarian) after I graduated which was only based on a ticking a box saying I have a degree. You would not believe the amount of red tape introduced by May's Home Office in the last few years and it's getting worse.

Reading and listening to her speech and those of her cabinet, I am seriously thinking whether I have missed an election in the last 12 months. She's turning the country on its head with no mandate to do so. This won't end well.
 
Rightnr said:
You seem like one of those Brexiters that voted for sovereignty who claims everyone did the same, not realising 90% of the vote was down to 'we don't want any more foreigners'. Personally, I understand the concerns on immigration but they have been stoked by government policy for years and years. Nothing to do with the EU, especially because it does not control non-EU immigration.

In fact, the government has made EU's migrants life very difficult lately. I had to wait 5 months to get a work permit (I am Bulgarian) after I graduated which was only based on a ticking a box saying I have a degree. You would not believe the amount of red tape introduced by May's Home Office in the last few years and it's getting worse.

Reading and listening to her speech and those of her cabinet, I am seriously thinking whether I have missed an election in the last 12 months. She's turning the country on its head with no mandate to do so. This won't end well.
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I'd love to know where you got that "90% of the vote was down to not wanting foreigners" idea from when the statistical breakdowns I saw at the time suggested it was more like a third of leavers who named immigration as their #1 reason for voting to leave.

Seems like you're one of the 90% of people who make up nonsense stats on the spot. :P
 
sullydnl said:
I'd love to know where you got that "90% of the vote was down to not wanting foreigners" idea from when the statistical breakdowns I saw at the time suggested it was more like a third of leavers who named immigration as their #1 reason for voting to leave.

Seems like you're one of the 90% of people who make up nonsense stats on the spot. :P
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What percentage of that percentage told the truth
 
Rightnr said:
You seem like one of those Brexiters that voted for sovereignty who claims everyone did the same, not realising 90% of the vote was down to 'we don't want any more foreigners'. Personally, I understand the concerns on immigration but they have been stoked by government policy for years and years. Nothing to do with the EU, especially because it does not control non-EU immigration.

In fact, the government has made EU's migrants life very difficult lately. I had to wait 5 months to get a work permit (I am Bulgarian) after I graduated which was only based on a ticking a box saying I have a degree. You would not believe the amount of red tape introduced by May's Home Office in the last few years and it's getting worse.

Reading and listening to her speech and those of her cabinet, I am seriously thinking whether I have missed an election in the last 12 months. She's turning the country on its head with no mandate to do so. This won't end well.
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You have to remember that we joined the EEC in 1973 and a lot of people didn't want to join then. In 1993 we further entwined ourselves and there was even more discontent, particularly because we didn't have a say in it. There's been this festering discontent with Brussels over the last 43 years so this feeling of wanting "out" isn't something new to many Brits. Immigration has become a problem in recent years but that's the volume of immigration itself, not immigrants per se.

(Any compatriot of Berb's is welcome here :) )

You wouldn't want another GE - she'd walk it right now. She'd win even if there was good opposition but with no opposition to speak of we'd probably end up with double the number of Tory MP's.
 
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Paul the Wolf said:
What percentage of that percentage told the truth
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What percentage of remainers have the power to read the mind of those who voted to leave? Statistics aren't perfect but they beat broad generalisations every time.
 
Rightnr said:
Again your views are pure fantasy. Why should I and other sensible people have to defend the position that leaving the biggest trade market in the world will make you worse off? If you had a job but you got sacked and someone came along and said 'prove to me that you won't be better off sacked than in work' you'd laugh. And you are putting the onus on remain voters to demonstrate why you're delusional? I despair.
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I got sacked 2 years ago and it was the best thing that happened to me. Unknown to me at the time, i was sick and in the wrong place, a bit like the uk, after a rocky 8 months i chose to look for a better job and found it easily. At the beginning of those 8 months i thought i would never work again and felt suicidal.

How does that fit your analogy?
 
Will Absolute said:
For the last time - I'm not British!:D

The EU's position on the proposed TTIP agreement with the US is based on a judgement that such a change in its existing trade relationship with America would be detrimental to its interests.

The EU has an existing trade relationship with Britain from which both parties benefit. The introduction of significant trade restrictions will disrupt that relationship and be harmful to both Britain and the EU. It makes more sense to let sleeping dogs lie.

There's a difference between telling workers all across Europe: "You must lose your jobs because we want to make an example of the bad British", and rejecting a radical alteration in the way Europe presently does business with the US.

The EU has a larger economy than Britain and has the advantage in that respect. But the British economy is not chopped liver and the EU can't hurt Britain without hurting itself. The British will come to the negotiating table as junior partners, not with a begging bowl. In the final analysis commonsense will prevail and all the multi-various strands linking Europe and Britain won't be cut out of a transient sense of pique.

I've said the same thing on this subject now for several posts going back to before the referendum. There's no point in saying it again. We'll see what happens. If I'm wrong and still around, I'll come to this thread and acknowledge my mistake.
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This argument is pretty past nationalities at this point

The EU and the UK have a trade deal that worked for both parties. Now the UK wants to change it and make it heavily stacked towards them. Do you think that the EU will just say 'oh well ok' about that? That trade deal is a goner. Things are bound to change and the EU would rather piss off a trade partner then risk to provide a deal which would be too good for the leaver. The reason to that is that it risks to bring in a contagion with countries preferring that deal rather then full membership.

At this point we're speaking regarding the EU as 1 big country but its not. There's 27 nations in the EU all with different agendas and all armed with a VETO. Some have a healthy business relationship with the UK and would want this trade relationship to continue in one way or another. Others barely conduct any business at all with the UK, their citizens had been insulted time and time again by the UK politicians and they are heavily reliant on freedom of movement. Why do you expect them to stay mum and accept everything to appease the former? These countries have a history of being persecuted. How do you think they will react to comments (some coming from politicians) and articles portraying their citizens as some sort of bad influence to the UK? Its ironic how people expect the EU countries to be pragmatic when all the UK is doing is shooting at its financial foot to appease that huge xenophobic and nationalist minority.

Boris believed that if the UK voted Brexit the EU would be desperate to give the UK a better deal in a bid to keep them in the Union. That didn't happen. May believed that informal negotiations will start immediately that didn't happen either and that stance remained the same even after she gave a clear indication when article 50 will be activated. There's no doubt that the UK is a prosperous country and by leaving the EU it will have a negative impact on the union. However could it be that they have overrated their importance a bit too much? EU existence > trade with Britain especially since

a- the UK will go into recession either way. Less money in the British people pocket will translate into less trade irrespective whether they are in the single market
b- A hard Brexit will move companies from the UK to the EU which is a big plus for the EU. I've placed an article stating that the French are being bombarded by enquiries from financial companies located in the UK about the prospect of moving to the continent
c- The EU will grow stronger if the quitter's economy goes tits up. Others will be less likely to follow that path.
 
Will Absolute said:
For the last time - I'm not British!:D

The EU's position on the proposed TTIP agreement with the US is based on a judgement that such a change in its existing trade relationship with America would be detrimental to its interests.

The EU has an existing trade relationship with Britain from which both parties benefit. The introduction of significant trade restrictions will disrupt that relationship and be harmful to both Britain and the EU. It makes more sense to let sleeping dogs lie.

There's a difference between telling workers all across Europe: "You must lose your jobs because we want to make an example of the bad British", and rejecting a radical alteration in the way Europe presently does business with the US.

The EU has a larger economy than Britain and has the advantage in that respect. But the British economy is not chopped liver and the EU can't hurt Britain without hurting itself. The British will come to the negotiating table as junior partners, not with a begging bowl. In the final analysis commonsense will prevail and all the multi-various strands linking Europe and Britain won't be cut out of a transient sense of pique.

I've said the same thing on this subject now for several posts going back to before the referendum. There's no point in saying it again. We'll see what happens. If I'm wrong and still around, I'll come to this thread and acknowledge my mistake.
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The difference is that the effects on the EU employment will probably negligible, especially since you can expect quite a few companies leaving Britain and settling in Germany or France. In the end there are, as you said, existing trade relations. And yes, those won't be cut off. BEcause they can't, because most stuff Britain imports they can't get enywhere else and even with tarriffs, the advantage in logistic costs will still make up for a lot.
Because there will be no punitive costums. Just normal tarriffs. That is the normal deal, it won't hurt the EU much, the UK a bit more.
There will be no "punishment". The notion of that is ridicoulus. But if the UK should leave the EU and abandon freedom of movement, it will be treated like every other country not inside the EU. There's no bad will behind that, that is just how things go.
 
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