Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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full English no doubt - and none of that danish bacon rubbish
No limbo and no begging, just hard brexit and WTO tariffs.
There's no 'can any country' about it, we're leaving. I can't say I'm looking forward to the consequences, but at least it's sunk in, we're off.
Globally, by definition, imports = exports.
Britain is currently a net importer. But that's not a permanent situation, and has continued so long only because people are happy to lend the country money on favourable terms. The much lower exchange rate will change the current account balance over time.
As for the figures, British exports currently account for 27% of economic output. Which is hardly insignificant.
To summarize then,
The point made that the UK needs this level of immigration to maintain its population isn't correct. That being the point I made backed up by the ONS, second article down on a google search because anyone living in the UK who is even slightly informed about the matter knows the population is set to expand with or without any further net immigration.
So you could just say yes Bill he isn't correct on that and move on and save yourself the bother.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37539019
More good news from yesterday, its a good job I'm in this thread because otherwise you lot could be getting a very one sided take on events.
More good news from yesterday, its a good job I'm in this thread because otherwise you lot could be getting a very one sided take on events.
Much like with the Brexit vote itself, i think our friends across the Channel continue to live in this state of delusion where we are open to their petty intimidation.
If a hard Brexit it must be, so be it.
Many of our imports come from places outside of the EU in any event, so we might as well approach those nations about a trade deal (which can take as few as 1-4yrs to agree upon). And if the EU comes to terms with this new reality, who knows, they might be more reasonable about areas of common interest.
I don't know why this is stated like its a strength when it must be an inherent weakness.
Lets take Ireland as an example. How will it be possible to persuade Ireland that the UK should be crushed mercilessly by the EU juggernaut in order to prove that the EU is great organisation which has real value, when Ireland will be hurt every bit as much as the UK by any tariff measures placed on the UK. Ireland hasn't left the EU what did it do to make it "deserve" punishment?
Cos it's been done, tuff bananas. Was it really that close? NI and Scotland voted remain and nearly 70pc of England and Wales didn't. If only Scotland had voted to leave the UK.
Its neither strength nor weaknesses. Its just 27 countries, with 27 different agenda and 27 veto. If a country decides that the deal is against his national interest then he'll use that VETO
I think it is
Seriously its going to be 2 referendums. In or Out. There's turning back after that. I believe the British deserve to vote with some sort of information in hand rather then empty promises from Boris and co don't they?
A nation has to go along to get along in the EU. If every member vetoed every proposal it wasn't completely happy with, nothing would ever be decided.
All this is speculation anyway. Pragmatism decides matters in Europe. It doesn't make sense for the EU to blow off its own big toe in an attempt to blow off Britain's foot.
No. The majority has spoken and has said leave the zero growth market to rot
There's a difference between dealing with internal issues and dealing with an external country and a future competitor, especially if the country in question happens to have spend the last few years insulting their citizens and blaming everyone on the EU. Its highly ironic how the British expects Europe to be pragmatic and give the UK a fair deal when they had spent years electing clowns whose spent their entire career insulting the EU, its parliament and its people.
The UK has few friends (actually no friends if Von Rompuy is to be believed) and many politicians who don't like them very much.
A referendum filled with misconception and lies. So democratic
According to WTO chief the WTO deal will cost the UK £9B a year. The UK will have to renegotiate trade deals with all 161 WTO countries some of whom are EU members and other historical British allies like lets say Argentina and Russia. That would take time
Thats politicians for you. People actually want them to make decisions on our behalf. Can you believe that?
Well Id rather take vote after having an informed decision. Each for his own
Well i would imagine there would be campaigns along with it, ill informed ones possibly, locusts with plague and all that
Sterling continues to weaken , currently €1.137/£1
Good news for the UK seems exports are up over the last 3 months - because the pound is so weak.
As the chancellor said himself yesterday the UK imports far more than they export, so presumably their imports are costing far far more....
When finally article 50 is triggered and the UK actually leave the real impact will then be felt if it's a hard Brexit.
If tariffs are introduced, expecting the negotiations to aim towards having the same tariffs both ways.
Currently, UK exports have improved but the UK is still in the EU and the currency is weak and there are no duties to pay, no VAT problems, no import/export licences to worry about, free movement of goods.
Will the 27 other EU countries want to bother with all these formalities when the UK leaves if they can buy equivalent products from other EU countries without the hassle...
On a personal level, I am buying quite a lot from the UK because it is so cheap. If the UK leaves and one has to go through all that hassle to buy from the UK, forget it.
Will others on a personal level and on a commercial level think the same way?
Good news for the UK seems exports are up over the last 3 months - because the pound is so weak.
As the chancellor said himself yesterday the UK imports far more than they export, so presumably their imports are costing far far more....
When finally article 50 is triggered and the UK actually leave the real impact will then be felt if it's a hard Brexit.
If tariffs are introduced, expecting the negotiations to aim towards having the same tariffs both ways.
Currently, UK exports have improved but the UK is still in the EU and the currency is weak and there are no duties to pay, no VAT problems, no import/export licences to worry about, free movement of goods.
Will the 27 other EU countries want to bother with all these formalities when the UK leaves if they can buy equivalent products from other EU countries without the hassle...
On a personal level, I am buying quite a lot from the UK because it is so cheap. If the UK leaves and one has to go through all that hassle to buy from the UK, forget it.
Will others on a personal level and on a commercial level think the same way?
That why a referendum is needed once all papers or the table. I think the brits deserve that.
It has little to do with friendship.
The countries of Europe are friendly to their own interests. They won't damage them to spite the British.
Those on your side of the fence have been wrong about everything so far. They'll be wrong about this as well.
Eventually a trade deal will emerge which will save Europe's blushes, but which both sides can live with.
Just read this and looked up 2 countries - Denmark and Holland. Well that's 2 of our friends in the EU.
Denmark -
Denmark has been one of the staunchest supporters of the UK’s demand for renegotiation of the British terms of membership. The current Danish government which was elected in June 2015 has been supportive of the substance of the British demands and, in a more fundamental sense, the UK’s basic approach strikes a chord with the Danish government. The reason for this has historical roots as expressed by the Danish foreign minister, Kristian Jensen, in the Folketing on 29 March 2016:
Denmark and the UK have a close historical relationship, … we entered the EU at the same time… we have been accompanying each other and we have had joint priorities on the way in the struggle to ensure that the EU was … efficiently managed … with a focus on competitivity [and] job creation, and we often see eye to eye….from a Danish point of view an EU without the UK will be a different EU, a weaker EU…without the same cultural plurality… and …political impact.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/...ark-italy-the-netherlands-slovenia-and-spain/
Holland -
The words: "Don't leave me this way," in English, and the Union Jack splashed across the front page of Wednesday's
edition of the best-selling daily newspaper Algemeen Dagblad reflect the general view of the Dutch establishment about a possible Brexit.
The Dutch currently hold the presidency of the EU, but it is not just the prospect of an unprecedented crisis happening on their watch that is causing jitters in the Netherlands.
Dutch politicians, especially on the right, regard Britain as a bulwark against the more protectionist tendencies of some of the bigger EU states.
As one of the grand old men of Dutch politics, the former leader of the centre right VVD party and former EU Commissioner Frits Bolkestein told me: "Holland and Britain look at the seas.
"We are maritime people and believe in trade with other parts of the world.
"Continental powers, like France and Germany, very important members of the EU, think differently."
So, what if Britain left the EU?
"The Dutch would feel they've lost an important ally in the balance of powers within the European Union," he said.
"Our message is, 'Hang in there, don't leave Holland, support free trade.'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36549603
I agree £9b is a significant loss, but we will have gains to at least partly offset that, and it's not a sum that will break us.
I'm no Tory and I'm no fan of May but if you can imagine her begging over that amount it's really saying more about you than it is about her.
Hard brexit devilish, no begging, get used to it.
£9b is about the same as the UK is paying the EU... where are the gains coming from?
37% anyway
France is a maritime country and it's fairly important to our economy. Also if we had the idea of making it an even bigger priority it would affect Holland a lot given our geographical position.
That's a strange comment.
Thanks.....it's 4 now! This is surprising!
Poland - With its closest EU ally leaving, Poland’s new government is signalling its desire to build a counterweight to Germany’s dominance in the bloc.
Oddly enough Hamburg is Europe's 3rd largest port
If I'm not mistaken germans are more "fluvial oriented", when France's maritime industry is naturally huge. The numbers are weird but I just read that the French Maritime industry weight +60bn€ compared to the 22.2bn£ of the Uk.
I for one am shocked and surprised.
Germany use Rotterdam and Antwerp (the two biggest ports in Europe) as their ports as well as Hamburg and Bremen - a lot of traffic up the Rhein/Meuse and canals to/from Antwerp and Rotterdam as well as the fast cargo rail link Betuweroute between Rotterdam and Germany which I believe is completed or nearing completion.
A lot of shipments to/from France are trans-shipped in Antwerp as it is now a major hub like Rotterdam.
The Uk no longer rule the waves.
I have spent the last 30 years of my life importing and exporting from Europe
Well I'm sure we've started negotiating already, so nothing to worry about there.
Yeah, that's why the comment is weird.
Exactly, very weird
You haven't done a trade deal in the past 4 decades. You've quickly assembled a team of people who still understaffed, whom they had never worked with one another and whose lead by brilliant people like erm, Boris to work on concurrent deals with the EU, WTO and a series of countries for long deals which often take nearly a decade to complete. These groups will be reluctant to work with you until you've sorted your issues with the EU and they know exactly what you can or cannot offer. They are in no hurry. They got trade deals already in place and would rather work on a deal with the EU which is a much bigger market then with you.
Jeez your foreign secretary didn't even knew that Turkey can't sign trade deals without the EU being involved in it. Turkey is in the customs union
Your posts are a fine example of Brexiters' firmly head in the sand approach.
It's exactly because of such attitudes that the referendum should never have taken place.
Its highly ironic to expect countries to be pragmatic and put the economic benefits first when the UK itself is not being so.Especially when you consider that there's a substantial number of EU countries barely get any business from the UK itself. All governments need to take in account a certain degree to cheap populism. Just as May is bending over backwards, in total disregard to the economy, to appease some uneducated leaver who blame everything over the EU, other PMs will be expected to act tough against a nation whose limiting their freedom of movement and had labelled their people as persona non grata (if not even crooks).
That's it their own interest which vary from one country to another and all armed with a VETO. Germany would probably be happy with a trade deal and the UK contributing to the EU budget. The Eastern European countries do not care about that and they want freedom of movement. Spain wants shared sovereignty with Gibaltar and probably a way to get rid/tax more the hordes of ancient expats living off their NHS. Some are building their own financial centre and would love seeing the UK losing its financial passport so that some of these companies will move there.
The EU is great to sign simple trade deals like the one with Iceland. However it had struggled to sign more complex trade deals and this is one of the most complex at all. If these countries had made a stand with the US, an economy which is far richer and bigger then the UK and which unlike the UK it had never turned its back to Europe, then why should they work differently with you?
I am sure that they will offer a trade deal and they will do that to save Europe's blushes and not make themselves look like cnuts in front of the world fora. With that deal be acceptable? I much doubt it.
The more time that passes, the more I am confident that hard Brexit is not a choice for the UK to make
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