Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Paul the Wolf]

Answered your own question Paul....but of course you knew the answer all the time!

There was a myriad of reasons for voting leave, most were promising 'a change' of some kind, but there was only one reason for voting remain that meant 'no change' stay as you are.
Clearly more people wanted to change than didn't and the eventual 'leave/remain' map of the country told us why, of course the changes that do come wont suit everyone, some wont suit anybody.
Covid and its aftermath is a key feature, those countries that respond most effectively (and probably quickly) whether its changing the lifestyles of its populace, ways of working, ways to re-jig their economy, to lower costs, eliminate wastage, increase productivity etc. will benefit. Most crucially those countries 'that seize the day' will lead off. The EU currently has a cumbersome process to agree, sometimes the smallest of changes across 27 countries, this will hold it back.

For whatever reason anyone voted leave and they wanted change, if you vote for change I would expect most people to vote for something better, not worse and the only way they could convince people to vote leave was to lie to them because they know that most people will believe whatever is drummed into them without thinking and checking to see if what they are being told is at least vaguely truthful.

No-one says the EU is perfect and if there was a way of improving it then I would expect most people would be all for it.
I have no idea , beyond some fantasy, how leaving the EU s going to improve anyone's life other than a few tax dodgers.

Covid wasn't an issue until the last year and each country's response in the EU is different, even in each town or region's response within a country is different.
As I've said many times I live in France, with a French way of life, with french laws , which happens to fortunately be in the EU, not that I live in the EU with all EU laws and a EU way of life and happen to live in a region called France.
Ask the question to a leaver : who makes the laws in France?

 

[africanspur]

We are of course open and diverse but when there's a sizeable minority that hate that diversity and the same people are the strongest brexiteers who seemingly 'won' it's hard not to feel hatred back. Are we the worst? Of course not but the strong reaction is because lots of us thought we as a society were much better than the likes of racist Hungary.

I mean you had people on the Daily Mail website yesterday laughing at a refugee child drowning and wishing more would, these people 'won'. Then they celebrated at refugees being attacked. The amount of people willing to express such views is increasing and i can't foresee it not increasing further.

The issue is some see being pleasant/civil and not offending anyone as more important than weeding out such extremism. That might make ones immediate world more pleasant but it also gives room for such hateful views to become more mainstream.

Bit of rant that's probably nothing to do with your point but there you go

Rant away! Its cathartic.

I of course agree. I have spoken at length on this board about racism, including after Brexit. However, I can't think of a single country in the world where there isn't a sizeable minority that hates diversity. In some cases, this hatred of diversity is against a group that is far more historically embedded than the more recent large scale diversity of the UK too. What we see across Europe and even the world in many places is a kickback against this diversity and increasingly aggressive and narrow minded leaders representing their constituents. This isn't confined to the UK, nor is it confined to countries we may not want to compare ourselves to. I hope though this is a short term deviation from a longer term consistent move towards more and more diversity.

I agree that we should hold ourselves to higher standards than other countries.

I think the rest of the stuff was very much unrelated to my post but like I said, definitely a good thing to rant and get it all out.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Answered your own question Paul....but of course you knew the answer all the time!

There was a myriad of reasons for voting leave, most were promising 'a change' of some kind, but there was only one reason for voting remain that meant 'no change' stay as you are.
Clearly more people wanted to change than didn't and the eventual 'leave/remain' map of the country told us why, of course the changes that do come wont suit everyone, some wont suit anybody.
Covid and its aftermath is a key feature, those countries that respond most effectively (and probably quickly) whether its changing the lifestyles of its populace, ways of working, ways to re-jig their economy, to lower costs, eliminate wastage, increase productivity etc. will benefit. Most crucially those countries 'that seize the day' will lead off. The EU currently has a cumbersome process to agree, sometimes the smallest of changes across 27 countries, this will hold it back.

People voted to leave because they were told that the "changes" were "oven ready". They were sold a load of lies.

I also don't see how the UK is going to do better than other EU countries post-Covid and "seize the day" (oh god do we have anything other than slogans nowadays?!) since our Covid response has shown that not only are we incompetent as a nation we can't even get the home nations to come together with a joint decision. It's like federal law except the total idiots in Westminster can override all of it with their bullshit.

 

[TheGame]

This from the Daily Mail of all people:

 

[Maticmaker]

The UK's current process to agree (England tells the other 3 nations what to do and pretend there's agreement) is leading to increasing resentment in our 2 most likely breakaway provinces.

Just like the major budget contributor countries in the EU tell the other countries what to do (and pretend there is agreement) is likely to lead to more resentment or even more '..exits' from EU too!

Covid wasn't an issue until the last year and each country's response in the EU is different, even in each town or region's response within a country is different.

No it wasn't, but it is now and depending on how successful, or not, small scale/local responses are to Covid will determine whether a return to mass lockdowns etc. occur. Either way the post Covid response will allow such as Boris (and a few other leaders in the EU as well) to snipe from behind cover on Brexit issues that are not panning out as anticipated, that turn out not to be 'oven ready'

 

[FireballXL5]

Meanwhile back in the real world...

Brexit: UK-EU trade deal 'seems unlikely' says Michel Barnier

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53854730

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Just like the major budget contributor countries in the EU tell the other countries what to do (and pretend there is agreement) is likely to lead to more resentment or even more '..exits' from EU too!



No it wasn't, but it is now and depending on how successful, or not, small scale/local responses are to Covid will determine whether a return to mass lockdowns etc. occur. Either way the post Covid response will allow such as Boris (and a few other leaders in the EU as well) to snipe from behind cover on Brexit issues that are not panning out as anticipated, that turn out not to be 'oven ready'

Even previously anti-EU extremists in France like Le Pen and Mélenchon have realised over the past few years that leaving the EU is idiocracy at its peak and the UK are doing a very good job at promoting staying and very soon should have convinced even the most anti-EU that they made a most colossal mistake. The EU can thank the UK for making it more solid.

Oven ready is an English brexiter slogan. It is patently obvious that the British government and the joke of a cabinet who are a bunch of incompetents have not a single clue what they are doing and never had a viable plan, just reel out slogans to keep the gullible happy.
Basically they want to carry on before but without any constraints, bringing us back to the cake and eat it strategy for the last 4/5 years. Sadly for them they've gradually realised that it ain't going to work and now they don't really know what to do.

The Brexit effect on each European country is a tiny fraction of what the effect will be on the UK. I thought we'd got over the they need us more than we need them and that had died out in about 2017.

 

[Stactix]

You only need to look at the governments recent incompetence and corruption to see that Brexit will be a resounding clusterfeck.

We're governed by utter fecking morons and some still expect Brexit to be anything other than a fecking shiteshow?
Without Covid it would of been a shiteshow, with Covid how on earth can you contemplate it going smoothly? When the government have shown with staggering evidence how fecking incompetent they are.

 

[sun_tzu]

Meanwhile back in the real world...

Brexit: UK-EU trade deal 'seems unlikely' says Michel Barnier

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53854730

Isnt there an EU leaders meeting in September? - if a deal is going to be done (or some fudge at pretending there is a deal / transition by some other name... and Id bet on an "initial trading relationship" basically an extension of the transitin by another name) then thats where it will happen so the leaders can all go off and spin it in the best way for them... not certain they will get an agreement but anything either side says before that is posturing

 

[Maticmaker]

The Brexit effect on each European country is a tiny fraction of what the effect will be on the UK. I thought we'd got over the they need us more than we need them and that had died out in about 2017.

It might have done living in your idyll in rural France Paul, but not over here, in fact can't say there are too many, remainers included, who seem particularly worried about what wrath the EU might pour out on us in a ''no deal' Brexit. Most people consumed by the Covid virus and its potential aftermath.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

It might have done living in your idyll in rural France Paul, but not over here, in fact can't say there are too many, remainers included, who seem particularly worried about what wrath the EU might pour out on us in a ''no deal' Brexit. Most people consumed by the Covid virus and its potential aftermath.

But that's it, not many people anywhere in the EU are thinking about Brexit, you've already left. it's not that important other than the small minority who are affected by it.
The Uk are going to be affected by both and Brexit will last longer.

What wrath are the EU going to bring? Either the UK complies with the rules of where they are exporting to or not. Doesn't matter if it's the EU, the USA, Australia or Outer Mongolia. You don't get to chose. You have a say in what is imported into the UK and usually there is a compromise but there are also basic minimums and it is clear that the UK government think they can dictate what they can and cannot do. If they adopt this attitude then their negotiations with all the rest of the countries is going to be a hard slog.

I would love to be a fly on the wall with the UK/USA negotiations. At the moment the UK export 100 times more cars to the USA than the USA export to the UK, "now let's sit down and discuss this....."
Can of worms springs to mind.

 

[Maticmaker]

But that's it, not many people anywhere in the EU are thinking about Brexit, you've already left. it's not that important other than the small minority who are affected by it.
The Uk are going to be affected by both and Brexit will last longer.

What wrath are the EU going to bring? Either the UK complies with the rules of where they are exporting to or not. Doesn't matter if it's the EU, the USA, Australia or Outer Mongolia. You don't get to chose. You have a say in what is imported into the UK and usually there is a compromise but there are also basic minimums and it is clear that the UK government think they can dictate what they can and cannot do. If they adopt this attitude then their negotiations with all the rest of the countries is going to be a hard slog.

I would love to be a fly on the wall with the UK/USA negotiations. At the moment the UK export 100 times more cars to the USA than the USA export to the UK, "now let's sit down and discuss this....."
Can of worms springs to mind.

According to a financial expert on BBC's News Night programme, last night, the Covid aftermath will dwarf Brexit in its effects on all economies, which is the point I am making!

Post Covid there will be 'new rules' for all, whether it be EU/UK/USA, etc. All 'free/democratic countries' will suffer because of the political strain that Covid will bring on such democracies, the one party state/dictatorship type governed countries will also suffer, but will be able to force unpopular issues and therefore likely to recover much more quickly. At the moment you would expect a Labour shadow Government in the UK to be banging on about the Brexit negotiations etc., but hardly a word has been spoken by any shadow front bench spokesman. In fact Labour doesn't know what to do, or how to be an effective opposition, given the Covid pandemic and that there is still four years to go to the next GE, and on top of that a large Tory majority in Parliament; all it seems capable of is to throw its hands up 'collectively' and denounce Boris and his Government as getting it all wrong.

To be honest I doubt if the 'Brexit effect' will last long than Covid, it is likely to be inconsequently in its effect because so much will have changed and new and probably very unlikely trading alliances will have been made, both within and external to the EU/UK, but we'll see!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

According to a financial expert on BBC's News Night programme, last night, the Covid aftermath will dwarf Brexit in its effects on all economies, which is the point I am making!

Post Covid there will be 'new rules' for all, whether it be EU/UK/USA, etc. All 'free/democratic countries' will suffer because of the political strain that Covid will bring on such democracies, the one party state/dictatorship type governed countries will also suffer, but will be able to force unpopular issues and therefore likely to recover much more quickly. At the moment you would expect a Labour shadow Government in the UK to be banging on about the Brexit negotiations etc., but hardly a word has been spoken by any shadow front bench spokesman. In fact Labour doesn't know what to do, or how to be an effective opposition, given the Covid pandemic and that there is still four years to go to the next GE, and on top of that a large Tory majority in Parliament; all it seems capable of is to throw its hands up 'collectively' and denounce Boris and his Government as getting it all wrong.

To be honest I doubt if the 'Brexit effect' will last long than Covid, it is likely to be inconsequently in its effect because so much will have changed and new and probably very unlikely trading alliances will have been made, both within and external to the EU/UK, but we'll see!

But Brexit only affects the UK to a significant degree, it's very minor on the rest of the world. Brexit will be with the UK forever or until they come to the senses and realise they can't operate or function as fantasy island.

I don't disagree that Covid will have a massive effect on every country but the world will still trade with each other, in roughly the same way as they do now. Whatever covid brings in way of economic problems to everyone, the basics will still be there when hopefully things get better and the UK will still be an island off the coast of continental Europe.

Labour's approach to Brexit was just about as farcical as the Tories. Corbyn was completely hopeless and believe Starmer was the brains behind unicorn Brexit. May and Johnson having the cake and oven-ready Brexit.
Brexit was a political idea that was never viable and the consequences are soon to be revealed but also happening at the same time as another disaster to make things even worse.

 

[Maticmaker]

But Brexit only affects the UK to a significant degree, it's very minor on the rest of the world. Brexit will be with the UK forever or until they come to the senses and realise they can't operate or function as fantasy island.

Brexit affects all those countries outside the EU who trade with the EU in order to get access to the UK market as well, so it will affect others besides the UK. As I said earlier the first 25 or 30 years of my life I never heard of EU and so I suspect it will be twenty years from now... although I may not be here to see it!
Brexit may be a mistake, as I first thought and you still seem to think, or maybe not, but I still think Covid and its aftermath will have more of an impact and a longer lasting one

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Brexit affects all those countries outside the EU who trade with the EU in order to get access to the UK market as well, so it will affect others besides the UK. As I said earlier the first 25 or 30 years of my life I never heard of EU and so I suspect it will be twenty years from now... although I may not be here to see it!
Brexit may be a mistake, as I first thought and you still seem to think, or maybe not, but I still think Covid and its aftermath will have more of an impact and a longer lasting one

Brexit will affect EU countries to varying degrees, Ireland the most but at least the border will be effectively in the Irish Sea so the impact will be lesser than originally thought as goods and people can move freely between north and south. Quite a few will not be affected at all and many very little. Remembering that the agreements the EU have already are not being torn up, only the UK agreements.
I think the UK is in far more danger of breaking up than the EU and suspect will be a hot topic next year.

Brexit , as far as I'm concerned is a huge mistake and nothing has suggested otherwise in the past four or five years. I actually think it will be worse than a lot of pro-EU people/Remainers have said but then I'd be
really cast as a scaremongerer. I also think Covid will affect the service industries more which the UK is heavily reliant upon which compounds the problem.

I logged on to the Express website today for the first time for about two years (had to really force myself) to see what they were saying about Brexit. Incredibly they seem even more loopy than before.
Has anyone told the UK public that the leaving part has already been agreed? The Express seem a bit confused.
Do the public realise that the UK has already left the EU and have "taken back control"?

 

[Maticmaker]

Brexit will affect EU countries to varying degrees, Ireland the most but at least the border will be effectively in the Irish Sea so the impact will be lesser than originally thought as goods and people can move freely between north and south. Quite a few will not be affected at all and many very little. Remembering that the agreements the EU have already are not being torn up, only the UK agreements.
I think the UK is in far more danger of breaking up than the EU and suspect will be a hot topic next year.

Brexit , as far as I'm concerned is a huge mistake and nothing has suggested otherwise in the past four or five years. I actually think it will be worse than a lot of pro-EU people/Remainers have said but then I'd be
really cast as a scaremongerer. I also think Covid will affect the service industries more which the UK is heavily reliant upon which compounds the problem.

I logged on to the Express website today for the first time for about two years (had to really force myself) to see what they were saying about Brexit. Incredibly they seem even more loopy than before.
Has anyone told the UK public that the leaving part has already been agreed? The Express seem a bit confused.
Do the public realise that the UK has already left the EU and have "taken back control"?

That is true but if those countries outside the EU still want into the UK market they will have to do a separate deal.

The UK is unlikely to break up because of the underlying economies especially pensions issues. It is however possible that a new UK is formed of four truly independent countries (assuming a 'All Ireland' solution could be 'manufactured' at least on economic grounds, that would still maintain the GFA principles, this of course would be the temptation to Ireland to as it were ...Irexit' from the EU, unlikely but possible!

We all know you are the 'Project fear' leader in chief Paul and you may well have an opportunity to gloat later (next year); however I do agree with you that many over here now seem to be ignoring the WA and working on the assumption that if eventually there is a no deal outcome then the WA gets washed away with everything else, which is a reasonable assumption, Remember Theresa Mays words about "Everything is agreed, or nothing is agreed."

 

[FireballXL5]

That is true but if those countries outside the EU still want into the UK market they will have to do a separate deal.

The UK is unlikely to break up because of the underlying economies especially pensions issues. It is however possible that a new UK is formed of four truly independent countries (assuming a 'All Ireland' solution could be 'manufactured' at least on economic grounds, that would still maintain the GFA principles, this of course would be the temptation to Ireland to as it were ...Irexit' from the EU, unlikely but possible!

We all know you are the 'Project fear' leader in chief Paul and you may well have an opportunity to gloat later (next year); however I do agree with you that many over here now seem to be ignoring the WA and working on the assumption that if eventually there is a no deal outcome then the WA gets washed away with everything else, which is a reasonable assumption, Remember Theresa Mays words about "Everything is agreed, or nothing is agreed."

Ireland leaving the EU is about as likely as you actually having a grasp on reality.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

That is true but if those countries outside the EU still want into the UK market they will have to do a separate deal.

The UK is unlikely to break up because of the underlying economies especially pensions issues. It is however possible that a new UK is formed of four truly independent countries (assuming a 'All Ireland' solution could be 'manufactured' at least on economic grounds, that would still maintain the GFA principles, this of course would be the temptation to Ireland to as it were ...Irexit' from the EU, unlikely but possible!

We all know you are the 'Project fear' leader in chief Paul and you may well have an opportunity to gloat later (next year); however I do agree with you that many over here now seem to be ignoring the WA and working on the assumption that if eventually there is a no deal outcome then the WA gets washed away with everything else, which is a reasonable assumption, Remember Theresa Mays words about "Everything is agreed, or nothing is agreed."

Yes that's the whole point, the UK will have to negotiate deals with every country throughout the world who are willing to have a deal with them. The EU don't, they already have them. The UK have got a lot of negotiating to do which would be difficult enough with people who know what they are doing, I can't think of anyone in the British government who gives the impression they know what they're doing.

The GFA principles are being satisfied, otherwise there wouldn't be a negotiated Withdrawal agreement between the EU and UK, as I said the border is effectively in the Irish sea and now one part of the UK has to export to and import from another part of the UK, well done Brexiters.

This "no deal" is not about the withdrawal agreement , it's about the new trading relationship between the EU and the UK and the transition period was due to be around two years which was intended to smooth the process where the UK still benefited from the EU whilst trying to start negotiating new trade agreements with other countries which you acknowledged at the start needs to be done. As usual the Brexiters have c*cked that up as well so we're now four months from total departure and the UK have nothing. The three agreements they were trying to start off negotiating, with the EU, USA and Japan all seem to have hit the buffers.

My view , as it has been since the beginning is I don't see how possibly this will work and has nothing to do with Project Fear, it's not about gloating either, it just seems inevitable unfortunately and always has done. Even if the UK sign a trade deal with the EU, I don't see how it will work if they are not in the same Customs union.

Why the UK think other countries would leave the EU I have no idea, why does the UK think the EU will break up. Does the UK think ECOWAS , the West African equivalent of the EU will break up? This involves Commonwealth countries such as Ghana and Nigeria for example, talks between the EU and ECOWAS started in 2004, most of the ECOWAS countries have signed the EPA but not all, Nigeria haven't yet signed.
How quickly do you think ECOWAS will sign an agreement with the UK? In both our lifetimes?

Will the Pacific partnership break up, will the UK join the Pacific partnership, something a bit more absurd I suppose.

And at the end of it all, what is the benefit to the UK? How on earth will the UK be better off?

 

[Fluctuation0161]

That is true but if those countries outside the EU still want into the UK market they will have to do a separate deal.

The UK is unlikely to break up because of the underlying economies especially pensions issues. It is however possible that a new UK is formed of four truly independent countries (assuming a 'All Ireland' solution could be 'manufactured' at least on economic grounds, that would still maintain the GFA principles, this of course would be the temptation to Ireland to as it were ...Irexit' from the EU, unlikely but possible!

We all know you are the 'Project fear' leader in chief Paul and you may well have an opportunity to gloat later (next year); however I do agree with you that many over here now seem to be ignoring the WA and working on the assumption that if eventually there is a no deal outcome then the WA gets washed away with everything else, which is a reasonable assumption, Remember Theresa Mays words about "Everything is agreed, or nothing is agreed."

All Ireland, bloody hell. The self delusion is strong in some Brexiteers it seems.

If you think the self serving clowns running our country are going to manage anything other than a Brexit disaster then you are not looking at their track record.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Yes that's the whole point, the UK will have to negotiate deals with every country throughout the world who are willing to have a deal with them. The EU don't, they already have them. The UK have got a lot of negotiating to do which would be difficult enough with people who know what they are doing, I can't think of anyone in the British government who gives the impression they know what they're doing.

The GFA principles are being satisfied, otherwise there wouldn't be a negotiated Withdrawal agreement between the EU and UK, as I said the border is effectively in the Irish sea and now one part of the UK has to export to and import from another part of the UK, well done Brexiters.

This "no deal" is not about the withdrawal agreement , it's about the new trading relationship between the EU and the UK and the transition period was due to be around two years which was intended to smooth the process where the UK still benefited from the EU whilst trying to start negotiating new trade agreements with other countries which you acknowledged at the start needs to be done. As usual the Brexiters have c*cked that up as well so we're now four months from total departure and the UK have nothing. The three agreements they were trying to start off negotiating, with the EU, USA and Japan all seem to have hit the buffers.

My view , as it has been since the beginning is I don't see how possibly this will work and has nothing to do with Project Fear, it's not about gloating either, it just seems inevitable unfortunately and always has done. Even if the UK sign a trade deal with the EU, I don't see how it will work if they are not in the same Customs union.

Why the UK think other countries would leave the EU I have no idea, why does the UK think the EU will break up. Does the UK think ECOWAS , the West African equivalent of the EU will break up? This involves Commonwealth countries such as Ghana and Nigeria for example, talks between the EU and ECOWAS started in 2004, most of the ECOWAS countries have signed the EPA but not all, Nigeria haven't yet signed.
How quickly do you think ECOWAS will sign an agreement with the UK? In both our lifetimes?

Will the Pacific partnership break up, will the UK join the Pacific partnership, something a bit more absurd I suppose.

And at the end of it all, what is the benefit to the UK? How on earth will the UK be better off?

Also, deals are best negotiated when you are in a position of strength. i.e. you can take or leave a deal because the current situation is already acceptable.

The UK is going to be running across the globe with its pants down begging for new trade deals. We will be in a very weak negotiating position with whichever country or trading group we are trying to deal with across the World.

 

[Maticmaker]

Yes that's the whole point, the UK will have to negotiate deals with every country throughout the world who are willing to have a deal with them.

Of course it will be some countries, but I doubt all of them, those that want to trade into the UK and vice-versa, but deals will presumably be shaped to each set of circumstances for each participant, some we will get a great deal some we might not, depends on what there is to trade!

This "no deal" is not about the withdrawal agreement ,

Its beginning to look like it is... as your excursion into the Express website no doubt revealed!

Even if the UK sign a trade deal with the EU, I don't see how it will work if they are not in the same Customs union.

This has been my point from the off, there could never be any deal based on what was the UK's former membership of the EU... it was never going to happen. There was one opportunity under May's rule to ditch Brexit, but she didn't take it or perhaps rather the Tory Brexiteers wouldn't let her. From there on in it was always a 'no deal' scenario. The Cliff edge looms, but with Covid in play very few will notice.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Of course it will be some countries, but I doubt all of them, those that want to trade into the UK and vice-versa, but deals will presumably be shaped to each set of circumstances for each participant, some we will get a great deal some we might not, depends on what there is to trade!



Its beginning to look like it is... as your excursion into the Express website no doubt revealed!



This has been my point from the off, there could never be any deal based on what was the UK's former membership of the EU... it was never going to happen. There was one opportunity under May's rule to ditch Brexit, but she didn't take it or perhaps rather the Tory Brexiteers wouldn't let her. From there on in it was always a 'no deal' scenario. The Cliff edge looms, but with Covid in play very few will notice.

I think you're getting as confused as the Express which is why I asked are the British public being led to believe by the British press that this negotiation has anything to do with the withdrawal agreement.
The Withdrawal Agreement has been agreed by all parties including Johnson (the withdrawal agreement is the oven-ready deal he meant) and been ratified by the EU parliament and the British parliament.
So it's not a no deal brexit in that sense and the UK have left the EU with an agreement.

Of course if they renegue on what they've agreed to then the UK will become a pariah like North Korea as predicted by some politician or other.

The current negotiations concern the future not the past and would always involve negotiating new agreements to replace everything the UK had previously and new ones.
Whatever happens with Covid the world isn't going to stop trading and people will certainly notice a difference come January. As I've said many times, so many things have been taken for granted and some people think things will just carry on as before. Surprise!

 

[Maticmaker]

are the British public being led to believe by the British press that this negotiation has anything to do with the withdrawal agreement.

I think the straightforward answer to that is yes, they are.
Its now being played (in certain sections of the press)as a means to an end, as we could not negotiate with the EU (as they repeatedly said) until we had left. The WA deal allowed that 'leaving' to happen, so that in theory at least we were now negotiating as a third country.

However Boris and his cabinet are implying that that third country dimension doesn't seem to be happening with the EU and the press have taken their approach from that and are suggesting/implying that the EU is still holding fast to its 'tethering lines' on a number of issues. Fishing is one area that may be small, but is important in terms of direction of travel. The EU does not want to offer anything like a Canada ++ etc. which the UK is saying is the model for a third country agreement, but the EU negotiators reject this saying it is not appropriate for a former EU member.
Hence from Boris's standpoint this EU stance reneges on the WA, along the lines of the 'nothings agreed until every things agreed' notion.

Of course if they renegue on what they've agreed to then the UK will become a pariah like North Korea as predicted by some politician or other.

Don't know if you've noticed Paul but the UK is not well liked as it is, perhaps our first TA will be with NK!

some people think things will just carry on as before.

Yes and many of these are in Brussels. No surprise!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I think the straightforward answer to that is yes, they are.
Its now being played (in certain sections of the press)as a means to an end, as we could not negotiate with the EU (as they repeatedly said) until we had left. The WA deal allowed that 'leaving' to happen, so that in theory at least we were now negotiating as a third country.

However Boris and his cabinet are implying that that third country dimension doesn't seem to be happening with the EU and the press have taken their approach from that and are suggesting/implying that the EU is still holding fast to its 'tethering lines' on a number of issues. Fishing is one area that may be small, but is important in terms of direction of travel. The EU does not want to offer anything like a Canada ++ etc. which the UK is saying is the model for a third country agreement, but the EU negotiators reject this saying it is not appropriate for a former EU member.
Hence from Boris's standpoint this EU stance reneges on the WA, along the lines of the 'nothings agreed until every things agreed' notion.



Don't know if you've noticed Paul but the UK is not well liked as it is, perhaps our first TA will be with NK!



Yes and many of these are in Brussels. No surprise!

It's not in theory, the Uk is a third country, it has left the EU with a withdrawal agreement that is enshrined in EU law, British law and International law. It is agreed. The future trade deal is separate whether Johnson likes it or not. The UK are negotiating a FTA with the EU , the same as with any other country or group of countries.


The complication is more that the UK is an island off continental Europe, not off the coast of the USA and not in the Indian Ocean or in the Pacific. So having such a close neighbour means a different relationship than with countries many miles away.

A Canadian++ deal is more meaningless Brexiteer twaddle. You have a FTA or you don't covering a range of items to be agreed. Clearly EU countries with fishing interests are never going to agree to a deal that puts them at a disadvantage and likewise regarding the level playing field.
A "Canadian" deal is still a disaster for the UK, there are still customs arrangements, this will be the killer.

Things will carry on as before in the EU, other than the dealings with the UK. With the EU27 and the rest of the world.
Don't think this has still sunk in. It needs to very soon.

 

[Kentonio]

Also, deals are best negotiated when you are in a position of strength. i.e. you can take or leave a deal because the current situation is already acceptable.

The UK is going to be running across the globe with its pants down begging for new trade deals. We will be in a very weak negotiating position with whichever country or trading group we are trying to deal with across the World.

The even worst part is that countries that really need/want a UK trade deal can just wait it out knowing that while it’s one deal for them, the UK is having to find many deals to prevent disaster. Knowing that, why wouldn’t you hold out for extra benefits?

This has confused me from the start, it puts the UK in an absolutely horrible negotiating position, and I don’t see how anyone can see it as positive.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Also, deals are best negotiated when you are in a position of strength. i.e. you can take or leave a deal because the current situation is already acceptable.

The UK is going to be running across the globe with its pants down begging for new trade deals. We will be in a very weak negotiating position with whichever country or trading group we are trying to deal with across the World.

Yes quite, how many negotiators do they have, they have torn up deals that have taken many years to negotiate with 70+ countries which nearly all terminate on 31st December.. It's not only with the EU they'll be on WTO terms, it's almost everyone.
Total and utter bewilderment.

 

[Buster15]

The even worst part is that countries that really need/want a UK trade deal can just wait it out knowing that while it’s one deal for them, the UK is having to find many deals to prevent disaster. Knowing that, why wouldn’t you hold out for extra benefits?

This has confused me from the start, it puts the UK in an absolutely horrible negotiating position, and I don’t see how anyone can see it as positive.

Indeed. You and me both.
But in reality, Brexit wasn't about beneficial trade deals. Not that they were ever going to happen.
It was more about the illusion that all our problems were the result of the bogyman EU forcing poor UK into doing things against its will.
And that somehow, leaving would 'Take Back Control'. Whatever that was supposed to mean. And that we would be 'free of the shackles of the big bad EU'.
As I said. We were sold an illusion and millions swallowed it hook, line and sinker.

 

[Maticmaker]

It's not in theory, the Uk is a third country, it has left the EU with a withdrawal agreement that is enshrined in EU law, British law and International law. It is agreed. The future trade deal is separate whether Johnson likes it or not. The UK are negotiating a FTA with the EU , the same as with any other country or group of countries.


The complication is more that the UK is an island off continental Europe, not off the coast of the USA and not in the Indian Ocean or in the Pacific. So having such a close neighbour means a different relationship than with countries many miles away.

A Canadian++ deal is more meaningless Brexiteer twaddle. You have a FTA or you don't covering a range of items to be agreed. Clearly EU countries with fishing interests are never going to agree to a deal that puts them at a disadvantage and likewise regarding the level playing field.
A "Canadian" deal is still a disaster for the UK, there are still customs arrangements, this will be the killer.

Things will carry on as before in the EU, other than the dealings with the UK. With the EU27 and the rest of the world.
Don't think this has still sunk in. It needs to very soon.

I don't think that's how HM Government sees it; however what it can do about it is open to debate, as you say international law etc. There is however a head of steam building and with a thumping House of Commons majority then Boris may say well we are damned if we do and damned if we don't so all bets are off including the WA. Under the cover of Covid he can play the long game and go for broke with a 'No Deal at all'.
The other story doing the rounds (apparently started by Dominic Cummings father-in-law...of all people)is that Boris will fall on his sword early in the new year, possibly claiming lingering effects of Covid on his health. If so then the internal battles return in the Tory Party on a whole host of issues, including of course Brexit.

If so that 'no deal' 'cliff-edge' will begin to look like 'coastal erosion' as well with the cliff itself disappearing into the sea.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I don't think that's how HM Government sees it; however what it can do about it is open to debate, as you say international law etc. There is however a head of steam building and with a thumping House of Commons majority then Boris may say well we are damned if we do and damned if we don't so all bets are off including the WA. Under the cover of Covid he can play the long game and go for broke with a 'No Deal at all'.
The other story doing the rounds (apparently started by Dominic Cummings father-in-law...of all people)is that Boris will fall on his sword early in the new year, possibly claiming lingering effects of Covid on his health. If so then the internal battles return in the Tory Party on a whole host of issues, including of course Brexit.

If so that 'no deal' 'cliff-edge' will begin to look like 'coastal erosion' as well with the cliff itself disappearing into the sea.

If he breaks International law the UK may as well give up now and tell the world they've decided to sever all contact with the rest of the world, be self-sufficient and live on fantasy island in isolation. This should last about two weeks when everything starts running out.

At least when Trump goes (hopefully) the world will have another crazy country to watch in amazement.

One would have thought that by now, after four years some sort of rationale and reasonable thought would have happened but apparently the insanity and stupidity is worse than ever and clearly only reality next year will have some effect.

 

[Maticmaker]

One would have thought that by now, after four years some sort of rationale and reasonable thought would have happened but apparently the insanity and stupidity is worse than ever and clearly only reality next year will have some effect.

Don't hold your breath, the Covid situation has distorted everything, 'its all through the looking glass' now.

I can recall at the time of the Falklands in the early 80's when people were saying of the then PM "surely she is not going to engage in a war 3000 miles away,...no she cant possibly be thinking of sending ships, and troops... there will be an outcry the world will ... then the Foreign Secretary (Lord Carrington I think) resigned and.....Oh shit, she is!!!

Not scientific I know but I sense the same sort of feeling now pervading parts of the press and some politicians... suppose we have to hope Boris isn't really up to being a Margaret Thatcher PM!

 

[TheGame]

Ah Brexit. While this is extreme, there are people who actually think like this:

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Ah Brexit. While this is extreme, there are people who actually think like this:

They'll be the first to complain. It will be someone else's fault but then they looked in the mirror and found the culprit.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Don't hold your breath, the Covid situation has distorted everything, 'its all through the looking glass' now.

I can recall at the time of the Falklands in the early 80's when people were saying of the then PM "surely she is not going to engage in a war 3000 miles away,...no she cant possibly be thinking of sending ships, and troops... there will be an outcry the world will ... then the Foreign Secretary (Lord Carrington I think) resigned and.....Oh shit, she is!!!

Not scientific I know but I sense the same sort of feeling now pervading parts of the press and some politicians... suppose we have to hope Boris isn't really up to being a Margaret Thatcher PM!

This is slightly different. In Brexit fantasy world, imagine Boris says right I'm no longer adhering to the agreement - OK don't call us we'll call you. UK grinds to a halt, the rest of us all carry on.
Ah but you need us more than we need you , says Boris - Do we - p!ss off.

 

[sun_tzu]

Brexit off the agenda at the leaders summit on 2nd September due to lack of progress

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/germany-scraps-plans-brexit-talks-172112053.html

Next round of brexit talks due to start 7th September

Expect the blame game will ramp up considerably over the next 2 weeks

 

[TheGame]

Brexit off the agenda at the leaders summit on 2nd September due to lack of progress

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/germany-scraps-plans-brexit-talks-172112053.html

Next round of brexit talks due to start 7th September

Expect the blame game will ramp up considerably over the next 2 weeks

Sounds about right and the brainwashed will fall for it again ignoring what’s been agreed and said less than a year ago. The cycle continues.

 

[Maticmaker]

This is slightly different. In Brexit fantasy world, imagine Boris says right I'm no longer adhering to the agreement - OK don't call us we'll call you. UK grinds to a halt, the rest of us all carry on.
Ah but you need us more than we need you , says Boris - Do we - p!ss off.

I think a lot of people over here do think that is now a possibility....either that or Boris will 'duck out' altogether (as Cummings father-in-law seems to think...hope?).

The truth is EU and the UK both need one another, especially Ireland does, to avoid damaging trade conditions. In some EU countries they will not even notice any impact on their trade with the UK, in others they will take sizable hits. In the UK the hits will be hard and more focused, but not every area of trade will suffer, some may even benefit.
So the truth is they can also both survive as well, but it will still be 'tears before bedtime' all round, if its truly a 'no deal'.

 

[Sassy Colin]

wtf?

https://www-independent-co-uk.cdn.a...atest-germany-cancels-eu-summit-a9690911.html

 

[nimic]

wtf?

https://www-independent-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-uk-talks-latest-germany-cancels-eu-summit-a9690911.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&amp&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-uk-talks-latest-germany-cancels-eu-summit-a9690911.html

Broken link.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I think a lot of people over here do think that is now a possibility....either that or Boris will 'duck out' altogether (as Cummings father-in-law seems to think...hope?).

The truth is EU and the UK both need one another, especially Ireland does, to avoid damaging trade conditions. In some EU countries they will not even notice any impact on their trade with the UK, in others they will take sizable hits. In the UK the hits will be hard and more focused, but not every area of trade will suffer, some may even benefit.
So the truth is they can also both survive as well, but it will still be 'tears before bedtime' all round, if its truly a 'no deal'.

Outside the UK , who cares what Dominic Cummings father in law thinks, who cares whether the British government think they can get away with not only breaking International law with regards to the Withdrawal Agreement but also the GFA.
The UK will be paralysed if they try to pull off that kind of stunt. Even after all this time Brexiters haven't the slightest idea of what they've voted for.
The UK is no longer part of the EU, they've left. Do Brexiters realise this?

If they don't want a FTA then just go away, simple as that. This weird feeling that they think the whole world revolves around the UK, it definitely doesn't.
So Brexiters want no deal but get upset if they don't get a deal and then threaten no deal. It makes no sense at all.

Brainwashed hysteria.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Broken link.

It was about Germany giving up on Brexit negotiations, but I can't find a reliable link now.