Yeah because it's a big, complex decision between 27 member states with differing opinions. They'll reach a solution eventually. Ireland, for example, have said they'll increase contributions. Others have too. The idea that it could be a factor in the dissolution of the EU is ridiculous.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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It's one summit
Not really.
I think there's misunderstanding here
a- I understood your argument perfectly. However please understand that Switzerland/Norway has a very different deal to what the UK is suggesting. In fact, if the UK wanted a Norway's deal then I can see that being sorted quite easily. The Swiss deal would be a tad more difficult as I suspect that the EU regret that deal and want a way out it.
b- Regarding burning bridges, I was referring business wise. Even then though the EU-UK will still negotiate on WTO terms which is a vastly inferior deal to the one the UK currently enjoys with the EU. WTO terms doesn't deal with services either which is what the UK is more concerned about.
I believe that a deal on WTO terms will hurt the UK's economy significantly. However the biggest damage will be the effect on society as a whole. A no Deal Brexit will probably bring the end of the NHS, an erosion in worker's rights, the end of the manufacturing, farming and fishing industries etc. Those would have a direct impact on the very Brexiteers that voted for it. I think that the repercussions to it will be far worse then the economic impact itself as no one likes to be taken for a ride. Speaking of being over dramatic the effects will be far less then having two atomic bombs dropped on London or Liverpool or having to foot the bill of an entire WW
I know they have something very different. They also have something different to each other. And to Turkey. And to Canada. And to Korea. That is literally my point. That all are different. That is what the British negotiators were suggesting.
I think the NHS may be coming to an end anyway but I've always been interested in the utter fear that comes with this (even though I personally think it is the one of the things that we should be most proud of currently). Peoples' default seems to be that we'd go to a US style system and leave people uninsured, rather than the insurance based systems that are in pretty much every other single advanced economy in the world, whether in Asia, Europe, Oceania or North America. It is also possible for countries to have workers rights etc outside of the EU.
I would certainly hope so! And seeing as 70 years later, those 2 countries are currently 3 and 4 in the world in GDP (and the country that had been occupied and ravaged by Japan are currently 2nd), perhaps we can all stop slightly with the hyperbole and the absolute assuredness we have as to the outcome of this process.
I do business all over the world, and never once have I been asked whether the country has a trade deal.
Even if you assumed this was important, there isn't really free trade in services in many areas of the EU as things are. Would a Cac or Dax business get a British accountant to sign off their books? No, they wouldn't be allowed.
Can you pop down the chippy. Get 4 cod and chips.
Comes back, they only had mackerel and herring - no chips either, lazy sods won't dig up the spuds.
I happen to be a landlord and my rent has gone up since the UK left Brexit since service industries are moving out of the UK and into the EU.
Some banks have ie. Goldman Sachs sending a few to Frankfurt as they worry about Euro clearing but where else? I've not seen or heard it? I wish that was the case as most of my work is in mainland Europe!
Accounting firms are multi-national, of course.
I think the issue is down to domicile of the partners actually doing the signing off relative to the country of incorporation of the company being audited rather than the location of the office and people actually doing the audit.
Plenty of companies quoted on the LSE with HQs outside the UK - not sure who signs off on these.
Go on - name a couple of them
I know they have something very different. They also have something different to each other. And to Turkey. And to Canada. And to Korea. That is literally my point. That all are different. That is what the British negotiators were suggesting.
I think the NHS may be coming to an end anyway but I've always been interested in the utter fear that comes with this (even though I personally think it is the one of the things that we should be most proud of currently). Peoples' default seems to be that we'd go to a US style system and leave people uninsured, rather than the insurance based systems that are in pretty much every other single advanced economy in the world, whether in Asia, Europe, Oceania or North America. It is also possible for countries to have workers rights etc outside of the EU.
I would certainly hope so! And seeing as 70 years later, those 2 countries are currently 3 and 4 in the world in GDP (and the country that had been occupied and ravaged by Japan are currently 2nd), perhaps we can all stop slightly with the hyperbole and the absolute assuredness we have as to the outcome of this process.
Each country is different and therefore needs a slight tweak to the current model in place. However what the UK is suggesting is what the EU calls cherry picking, ie picking the good of various models developed throughout the decades while discarding the negatives. That ain't gonna happen especially considering that the UK is not a financial powerhouse as China/US is, the time frame borders to the ridiculous + its too damn close to the EU to be offered an ambitious trade deal that might have loopholes in it. I assure you that the latter is the EU's real nightmare.
The EU will probably offer a conservative trade deal with a limited scope which it can easily control and monitor. That will leave serious financial repercussions in the UK which in turn will bring cuts. Usually in such circumstances the first thing that goes out of the window are workers rights, the health sector etc. It doesn't help that the Tory's guru on the matter is economist patrick minford. His suggestions on Brexit is pretty chilling.
There's no doubt that UK will survive a no deal brexit. Whether it would be the world Brexiteers thought it would be is a totally different matter. I think its turkeys voting for Christmas sort of thing, with the different that these Turkeys have votes in their hands and are in no mood to be roasted.
Well Brexit doner Lord Ashford suggested Malta as a prime location for British companies to move to. I don't know whether they moved or not but rent had gone to the roof in Malta lately.
Rent has gone through the roof throughout Europe, I think Dublin and Amsterdam the worst. I think it's just a general trend rather than anything to do with Brexit.
I have heard of some gaming companies moving from Gibraltar to Malta or choosing Malta given Brexit fears, but I don't think it would have a massive impact.
I assure you mate, rent in Malta has hit the roof. UK companies has been moving into especially in the gambling industry.
If I ever get to meet David Cameron I plan to kick him right in the gooleys for what he did.
Just felt the first effects of Brexit today personally, or at least what we have been told.
I am currently in the process of selling our other house (long story, not rich at all before anyone starts - it's a unique situation). It sold for 10k above asking price so the market is obviously strong and the demand is there, we even had 40 viewings, compared to 3 the last time we tried to sell 5 years ago. Everything was going great but we've just had the survey valuation report back from the buyers and they have valued the place at 40k less than what it has sold for so obviously this has thrown a spanner in the works. They even state there is nothing wrong with the property at all. The estate agent and buyer are both stunned so god knows what is going to happen now.
Apparently surveyors can be sued if someone defaults on their mortgage now (if they overvalued) so they are really undervaluing properties to protect themselves should there be a financial crisis due to Brexit. And now we are fecked because that stupidly shit valuation is on a portal and can't be removed. Effectively property/asset slander.
I am currently in the process of selling our other house (long story, not rich at all before anyone starts - it's a unique situation). It sold for 10k above asking price so the market is obviously strong and the demand is there, we even had 40 viewings, compared to 3 the last time we tried to sell 5 years ago. Everything was going great but we've just had the survey valuation report back from the buyers and they have valued the place at 40k less than what it has sold for so obviously this has thrown a spanner in the works. They even state there is nothing wrong with the property at all. The estate agent and buyer are both stunned so god knows what is going to happen now.
Apparently surveyors can be sued if someone defaults on their mortgage now (if they overvalued) so they are really undervaluing properties to protect themselves should there be a financial crisis due to Brexit. And now we are fecked because that stupidly shit valuation is on a portal and can't be removed. Effectively property/asset slander.
Gambling isn't services though strictly, but I take your point. It's quite a specific situation though, and there will be specific situations where industries become less competitive after Brexit.
This was what my 'flippant' point was about - yes they are all different - however, they all have one thing in common, the really big problem, which if the UK had similar deals to any of these , it would not solve it - there's a customs border.
I agree that any of those deals would be worse than what the UK currently has. As I've said multiple times, I voted remain and would vote remain again a thousand times. However the reality is thus now and rather than constantly complaining about it (I know not really relevant to you as you don't live here anymore), the best thing now is to try to shape the country in the best way possible for the future.
Hopefully that involves lots of amazing deals with all the major economies in the Americas, Oceania, Asia and the EU as well. I hope there are closer links with Africa. I hope the UK doesn't develop an adversarial relationship with the EU and I am sad for the opportunities I feel have been taken away from my kids and others like them.
I'm not convinced that the above will happen but at this point, you may as well try.
@Grinner I'd join you in that kicking too if you ever tracked him down.
I agree you have to get the best possible future and it's only from a spectator perspective for me personally.
The UK's biggest single customer country is already the USA, they already produce cars for China, they already had deals with Canada and Korea and Japan which they will no longer have from next year.
They will no doubt have some kind of deal with the EU.
But whether they get fantastic new deals or not with far off countries and it's a big but and nobody answers this question (sensibly) , how the hell does it cope with a customs border with the EU.
Just read this article from NYT in December. One of the reasons why the EU budget discussions will be difficult.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/11/world/europe/eu-farm-subsidy-lobbying.html
In France they just ask for B1 level, which is allegedly just ‘conversational’. I don’t know how tough the test is in practice though.
Most countries are proud of their language. I have mates working in Belgium and they say it almost impossible to get non EU related jobs there without knowing the language. Meanwhile Germany do impose language prolificiency test if I remember well
Some countries like Italy depend on youths going elsewhere for work at least till they get experience. I doubt many European nations are happy with how the UK is treating their migrants.
To be fair the European agricultural sector is a thorny issue with the US as it was one of the reasons why TTIP was shot. So they might be a bit biased against it.
Rest assured that the US agricultural lobby is as strong if not stronger then the European one. The UK will soon learn that when conducting a trade deal with them
Oh yeah, I think that agricultural subsidies are basically an avenue for corruption, wherever in the world. Payments should be linked to increasing bio-diversity and animal welfare, nothing else.
I've read about the subsidies massive American corn farmers such as Cargill and Bungee get, and it's just as dirty. Also read today that Cargill are entering the vegan food business, which is completely unsurprising after a couple years of militant outriding.
I don't know enough about agricultural subsidies and tax reliefs to know if they are justified or not, but given they exist I would include clauses to withdraw them if public footpaths, stiles and gates etc are not kept open. Just my thing.
Many services require a license or accreditation and they are generally geographically limited. So no, you don't just need an international transfer into your bank account.
But the EU doesn't mitigate this. There are different regulations and licences in different EU countries.
Which is the point, your claim was wrong. You don't just need an international transfer. And here you have an example that shows that services are indeed part of trade deals.
This looks to be a bit like the rules that forbid a player from speaking to another club until their current club has given them permission. I can understand why they are there, but in practice completely pointless.
No, it doesn't. It's like registration rules, you actually need to be registered to play.
I don't know what you do for work but trust me, outside of the highly regulated industries such as Health, Architecture and Finance no one is performing an economic needs test before taking on whatever contractor they see fit to do the job.
This answer is a bit strange, @devilish was talking about these highly regulated industries that are key for the UK. Your answer was fundamentally wrong because services are a key point of trade deals but also wrong in the context of the conversation that you had with devilish.
You're a strange person to interact with, as you're always trying to prove something and declare victory rather than share ideas and learn. Its not why I post and I don't find proving points over the internet particularly enjoyable or worth my time. Devilish and I weren't talking about Financial Services, and I'm sure the UK negotiating team will be very keen to get some kind of agreement in this area.
I was making the point in response to Devilish saying that WTO doesn't deal with services, that the majority of service exchange can happen freely without a trade deal. This is factually true, do you think a small business in Austria or Belgium are carrying out a economic needs test before hiring a software developer from India through freelancer from India to do a project? Of course not.
Why do you use a software developer as an example, did I suggest that all services were limited? I simply made the point that many services require bilateral agreements because they are regulated, it was a simple point in response to a post that put all services in the same bag.
As for the first sentence no need to make it personal, I didn't declare victory and won't.
See that Steve Baker has resigned as Chairman of the European Research Group as their work is done. After many years they can now finally confirm their research that the UK is indeed in Europe and Raab confirms they do live on an island.
David Davis, in the meantime, is still looking for some intelligence, of his own.
David Davis, in the meantime, is still looking for some intelligence, of his own.
Brexit will impact how British companies can offer their services in the EU (and vice versa). For example, in the industry I work in, insurance companies in the UK will no longer be able to offer their services directly in the EU (depending on what trade deal will be in place of course). Not trying to prove a point, just separating fact from fiction!
BMW sells cars and thats goods and thats simple right... except its not because most people don't pay up front for their car - most people lease it or pay for it in installments through BMW finance... I think many people dont realise how intertwined goods and services have become these days and there really isnt much time for people to figure it out
i sell and rent products and the rental is classed as a service whilst the sale is goods (its the same product)
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What has to be figured out? Will everyone have to pay up front for their new car, no leasing or paying by instalments? Or will car dealers not be able to offer financial deals directly as at present?
Can understand there will be a difference between buying and or leasing, but not sure what you are getting at with overall HP deals? Can you shed any light?
What has to be figured out? Will everyone have to pay up front for their new car, no leasing or paying by instalments? Or will car dealers not be able to offer financial deals directly as at present?
Can understand there will be a difference between buying and or leasing, but not sure what you are getting at with overall HP deals? Can you shed any light?
What he is saying has no bearing whatsoever because BMW Financial services is a wholly UK company. You can finance it via any company however. So is BMW UK for that matter which buys the cars from BMW AG in Germany and sells them in the UK market to individuals or to a finance company. Their cashflow is always maintained for the goods provided.
Source for this? As far as I know BMW Financial is 100% owned by BMW Bank which isn't a UK company.