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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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NWRed said:
Why? If you actually read/listen to what she and the Lib Dems have said then you'll know she is saying Corbyn can't command a majority even with the Lib Dems (a growing number of whom are ex Labour forced out by him and his supporters).



as for some evidence of this, here is a summary of current numbers in the HoC

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As for Labours position, there is no reason to insist on Corbyn except to gain an electoral advantage over the Lib Dems, and Swinson has suggested alternatives from both the Tories and Labour who would be able to get a majority (note - not herself or even a Lib Dem, but backbench MPs from her main rival parties, a pragmatic reasonable suggestion)

It's obvious who the obstable to an agreement is, just as it's obvious why, Labour can't win an election without getting back at least some remain voters from the Lib Dems and the Greens so need to either outflank them by being the ones to stop no deal or damage their credentials by trying to portray them as more intersted in party politics than stopping no deal.
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I'm not sure he even gets all the labour votes to be honest
But for sure he falls flat on his face if he tries to become pm... I don't think he has the balls for that and if an extension of forced through the Benn act they will give Boris an election under the fixed term parliament act
 
sun_tzu said:
I'm not sure he even gets all the labour votes to be honest
But for sure he falls flat on his face if he tries to become pm... I don't think he has the balls for that and if an extension of forced through the Benn act they will give Boris an election under the fixed term parliament act
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I think most would fall into line, except maybe Hoey.

Even MPs from leave constituencies like Nandy have spoken out against no deal so I don't see why they wouldn't.
 
NWRed said:
Possibly, I can't imagine remain MPs risking a no deal exit though, it's electoral suicide no matter what else happens regarding deselect ion.
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i think the libs probably offer to back him in the first round of votes (or at least not vote aganst him - berger etc might be persuadable to abstain) and the quid pro qou will be if (when) corbyn fails labour reciprocate with a compromise GNU candidate - beckett perhaps could be an acceptable compromise
 
NWRed said:
Why? If you actually read/listen to what she and the Lib Dems have said then you'll know she is saying Corbyn can't command a majority even with the Lib Dems (a growing number of whom are ex Labour forced out by him and his supporters).



as for some evidence of this, here is a summary of current numbers in the HoC

EF9igRDWkAQeqpY


As for Labours position, there is no reason to insist on Corbyn except to gain an electoral advantage over the Lib Dems, and Swinson has suggested alternatives from both the Tories and Labour who would be able to get a majority (note - not herself or even a Lib Dem, but backbench MPs from her main rival parties, a pragmatic reasonable suggestion)

It's obvious who the obstable to an agreement is, just as it's obvious why, Labour can't win an election without getting back at least some remain voters from the Lib Dems and the Greens so need to either outflank them by being the ones to stop no deal or damage their credentials by trying to portray them as more intersted in party politics than stopping no deal.
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As much as the LD say they want a 2nd ref, it seems to me that it's in their interest to have a GE first. If brexit gets sorted first, I'm pretty sure they will lose a lot of their current support.

Kind of makes sense of why Swinton is reluctant to back Corbyn and go down the route of GNU and 2nd ref. I suspect that seats are more important than brexit for her.
 
Flying high said:
As much as the LD say they want a 2nd ref, it seems to me that it's in their interest to have a GE first. If brexit gets sorted first, I'm pretty sure they will lose a lot of their current support.

Kind of makes sense of why Swinton is reluctant to back Corbyn and go down the route of GNU and 2nd ref. I suspect that seats are more important than brexit for her.
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This is likely true, but it's equally true to say there is no reason why Corbyn won't back a more neutral and obviously temporary leader other than his own self-promotion. If you blame one you have to blame the other.
 
Court rejects latest request to force PM to ask for Brexit extension

Anti-Brexit campaigners have failed in an attempt to force Boris Johnson to ask for an extension to article 50 if he is unable to get a Brexit deal through parliament, my colleague Severin Carrell reports. His story goes on:

Lord Pentland, sitting in the court of session in Edinburgh, rejected their request for a court order instructing the prime minister to seek an extension if he cannot get a deal passed by the Commons this month.

(Guardian)
 
Flying high said:
As much as the LD say they want a 2nd ref, it seems to me that it's in their interest to have a GE first. If brexit gets sorted first, I'm pretty sure they will lose a lot of their current support.

Kind of makes sense of why Swinton is reluctant to back Corbyn and go down the route of GNU and 2nd ref. I suspect that seats are more important than brexit for her.
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The first paragraph is certainly correct but the second isn’t. Because a GNU would be to merely get a Brexit extension with the EU and go to a GE.

There is no consensus on the 2nd ref. Even among the opposition parties (Corbyn wants his own deal vs remain, not May’s) never mind one that the Conservatives would agree to given that they would probably want no-deal on the ballot. And whatever the result of the referendum is, would a fractious GNU command the parliamentary majority to enact it? What happens if not? What if the Tories boycott the 2nd ref and then get elected as government in the upcoming GE?

For all those reasons a new Parliament and stable Govt is required before a 2nd Ref and therefore the GNU wouldn’t push for a 2nd Ref but a GE.
 
711 said:
This is likely true, but it's equally true to say there is no reason why Corbyn won't back a more neutral and obviously temporary leader other than his own self-promotion. If you blame one you have to blame the other.
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True but he has over 200 seats to her 18. I do agree though someone just needs to climb down and get this done so we get a second referendum.
 
Berbasbullet said:
True but he has over 200 seats to her 18. I do agree though someone just needs to climb down and get this done so we get a second referendum.
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2nd referendum under a GNU is not on the cards.

Labour want to negotiate their own deal, they won't put May's on a referendum. Because they could conceivably have to do a 180 and ratify May's deal which they don't like and voted down 3 times. But there's no chance they'll get the support of the other parties to go to Brussels to re-negotiate, since every party has a different vision about what is a good/acceptable Brexit and what the negotiating lines should be. As soon as the extension is signed the GNU will collapse and we'll go to elections.
 
MadMike said:
2nd referendum under a GNU is not on the cards.

Labour want to negotiate their own deal, they won't put May's on a referendum. Because they could conceivably have to do a 180 and ratify May's deal which they don't like and voted down 3 times. But there's no chance they'll get the support of the other parties to go to Brussels to re-negotiate, since every party has a different vision about what is a good/acceptable Brexit and what the negotiating lines should be. As soon as the extension is signed the GNU will collapse and we'll go to elections.
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Yes I think as well you are probably looking at something like a year to hold any renegotiations then get a question to a referendum ... Think labour said 9 months minimum and that sounds tight

And holding a gnu together for a year would be difficult... eg would SNP want indy ref 2 before the EU referendum... Would anybody else back a Corbyn budget... Would he back anybody else's

We might have an election and still end up with a gnu given how fragmented the vote could be though so who knows if an election will actually solve things anyway but I think it will be the first solution tried
 
Johnson: The EU won't give me any reasons why they're rejecting my plan. They're just trying to be difficult

EU: *Leaks the point by point demolition of the new Brexit plan that the EU has already given No 10.*

Johnson: WHY WON'T THE EU ENGAGE WITH MY PLAN :(
 
Stanley Road said:
Mr Hames is the acting executive director of Transparency IntUK. According to its accounts on its own website, in 2018 Mr Hames’ company received £3,463,555 from the European Commission. Does Mrs Swinson have a vested interest in remaining in the EU?
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Its not his company, it’s a company he works for. Full thread here:
 
sun_tzu said:
If she does then I assume she has similar vested interest in all of these other funders of transparency international (from their website)

Government agencies

Multilateral institutions

Foundations and Trusts

Corporates

Other organisations, institutions and coalition partners

Or you know husband works for well respected international organisation who fight corruption but meh she does not like Corbyn so let's smear her

And let's be honest the EU are going to fund transarancy international if the UK is in the EU or not .. just like dfid will and the us state department will
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How much did they receive from those organisations? A big list of funders is pointless without numbers.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
How much did they receive from those organisations? A big list of funders is pointless without numbers.
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I know they got 3 million from Siemens .... And overall got around 28 million

If you go through the whole accounts you can dig out further info yourself (it's on their website)

But the EU clearly isn't that big a deal in the grand scheme of things ... And given the us state department and UK dfid both fund transparencys work I don't see being in or out of the EU having any impact on that
 
Jippy said:
This definition from urban dictionary is more specific than most:lol:

Cottaging
When a man goes into a toilet to take a shit. He puts a carrier bag on the floor and his friend steps inside it. Then the man taking a shit starts sucking his cock. So, if some looks underneath the door it looks like someone is sat taking a shit with their shopping between their legs.
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:lol: Aldi bag?
 
Seems like their plan is to comply with the Benn Act hope someone will veto the extention by threatening no cooperation if an extention is granted, if one is granted anyway they think they can unite the Brexit vote by being the most hard line brexit party at a people vs parliament the GE then leave immediately without a deal



only real alternative to this is for the opposition parties to get their shit together (in other words for Corbyn to do the maths, realise he'll never get a majority with or without the LD and get out the way), form a GNU under Clarke, Harman or Beckett and call a 2nd ref. Brexit must be dealt with before a GE if this is their plan, and the opposition parties would have no other choice.
 
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sun_tzu said:
not sure - perhaps arranging a sneeky veto by somebody but possibly something along the lines of

the UK government has been forced to ask for a pointless extension by vermin remoaners and we have complied with the law... but we have no intention of any further renegotiation's and the only reason for the EU to grant an extension would be to try to work with the architects of the surrender act in order to undermine the democratically elected government and overthrow it in a coup to stop brexit and the will of the British people. As such any extension is an act of war and I am declaring a national emergency and closing parliament as we deal with this threat to our democracy and if an extension is offered I will send my response attached to a trident missile aimed at Brussles

or something equally crazy - afterall its boris so anything is possible
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NWRed said:
Seems like their plan is to comply with the Benn Act hope someone will veto the extention by threatening no cooperation if an extention is granted, if one is granted anyway they think they can unite the Brexit vote by being the most hard line brexit party at a people vs parliament the GE then leave immediately without a deal



.
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Tbf they have not quite called granting an extension an act of war... Yet... But they re getting closer
 
I'm assuming the government will pretend that's not from them officially but if it is proven to have originated from No 10 then they'll find themselves in court.
 
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