Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Boris Johnson to chair cabinet this afternoon - as speculation about imminent election intensifies

Boris Johnson has called a unexpected meeting of the cabinet today at 5pm, multiple Whitehall sources have confirmed. The prime minister is then expected to address Conservative MPs at a summer garden party in Downing Street.

The scheduling of the meeting has sent the rumour mill in Westminster into overdrive about the possibility that the government will set out plans for an snap general election this week.

Though no plans have been confirmed, senior rebel sources believe that Johnson could move as early as Wednesday this week, with a motion tabled the following day which would require the support of two-thirds of MPs.

A vote on the snap poll would come with a commitment that polling day would be before October 31 - though the date would ultimately be in the control of the government.
 
LARulz said:
100%. We're all geared up in the newsroom for an announcement this week and an election in a month or so
Click to expand...

I think anyone who is 100% certain of what is going to happen has not been paying attention.

I think now the Govt will wait and see what the rebels will do. The Rebels could pass a legislation and the government could ignore it. By the time the complains play through the courts it will be months if not years, so it would be inconsequential as we'll have Brexited and have had elections since.

If the rebels don't trust the Govt to honour the law, and those doubts increased after Gove's interview, they'll have to proceed with a VONC asap. Time is limited. The GE has to happen 25 days after dissolution of parliament. If the VONC doesn't happen this week, parliament returns from proroguation mid October. By which time the GE would be scheduled after Brexit and it's too late.

Basically the only way I see no deal being averted is by a VONC this week, followed by a GNU and that Govt going to Brussels and negotiating an extension. The current Govt is gambling on the rebels not being organised and coherent enough in their strategy to form a GNU.
 
Last edited:
Sassy Colin said:
Are you a bona fide ITK then?
Click to expand...

I work in a newsroom but my information tends to be second hand rather directly from the actual ITK like reporters, their producers (to decide if its worth talking about) etc. If I hear about it, it's because my managers have told me or others because its going to become common knowledge/nothing that will start world war 3.

As for getting election ready, to be honest, that's standard practice. No news organisation will go into this period without covering most situations and being prepared to "go" at the drop of a hat
 
MadMike said:
I think anyone who is 100% certain of what is going to happen has not been paying attention.

I think now the Govt will wait and see what the rebels will do. The Rebels could pass a legislation and the government could ignore it. By the time the complains play through the courts it will be months if not years, so it would be inconsequential as we'll have Brexited and have had elections since.

If the rebels don't trust the Govt to honour the law, and those doubts increased after Gove's interview, they'll have to proceed with a VONC asap. Time is limited. The GE has to happen 25 days after dissolution of parliament. If the VONC doesn't happen this week, parliament returns from proroguation mid October. By which time the GE would be scheduled after Brexit and it's too late.

Basically the only way I see no deal being averted is by a VONC this week, followed by a GNU and that Govt going to Brussels and negotiating an extension. The current Govt is gambling on there rebels not being organised and coherent enough in their strategy to form a GNU.
Click to expand...

True, not 100%, was more on the way I've been gearing up mentally I guess. I think it's coming, people around me are acting as if it's coming but may be because at this point, just have to be ready for everything so cover your bases
 
limerickcitykid said:
Are Irish citizens applying for the settled status thing? It says we don't need to but everything I've read has some weird wording about the Irish border so is it only you don't need to for crossing the Irish/UK border? Will I need the settled status to get back into England if I go on holiday after October 31st or is being an Irish citizen good to get back in? I see contradicting info and unclear language everywhere.
Click to expand...
I am interested in this too. What are RoIrish people in the UK doing?
 
GloryHunter07 said:
I am interested in this too. What are RoIrish people in the UK doing?
Click to expand...

They should be applying for settled status like the rest of the EU nationals.

It’s not so much about “getting back into the country”. I imagine travel to and fro will be Visa-less for the foreseeable as there’s simply no mechanism in place for application and granting of tourist visas yet, and there might never be (Visa free tourist travel).

It’s more about being able to prove to employers and govt agencies that might request your work visa or settled status that you’re eligible to live here indefinitely and work. So you should do it now, lest you get deported Windrush style 2-3 years down the line.
 
MadMike said:
They should be applying for settled status like the rest of the EU nationals.

It’s not so much about “getting back into the country”. I imagine travel to and fro will be Visa-less for the foreseeable as there’s simply no mechanism in place for application and granting of tourist visas yet, and there might never be (Visa free tourist travel).

It’s more about being able to prove to employers and govt agencies that might request your work visa or settled status that you’re eligible to live here and work. So you should do it now, lest you get deported Windrush style 2-3 down the line.
Click to expand...
Thanks, is there an official line on this from the ROI government?
 
LARulz said:
True, not 100%, was more on the way I've been gearing up mentally I guess. I think it's coming, people around me are acting as if it's coming but may be because at this point, just have to be ready for everything so cover your bases
Click to expand...

I think you can say with near-100% certainty that we’ll have elections before the end of the calendar year. It’s definitely coming. But not sure if it’s coming before or after Brexit.
 
sun_tzu said:
Part of me thinks Boris will announce tomorrow that there will be a ge vote on Tuesday as the first thing
Would circumvent the no confidence motion plus basically stop any parliamentary time to force an extension
It would be straight out of the Cummings playbook
Might even skip the custom of Thursday elections and call the election on 30th ... Makes all the other parties have to say they will extend A50 within 1 day should they win
Click to expand...
starting to look more likely as the day goes on
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I don't think they'll start moving Irish citizens out of the country anytime soon. There's been far too much cross pollination with the English population to do so. Far too many people's parents and grand parents would end up getting launched.
Click to expand...

Like that would stop them or has stopped them before. Define “any time soon”. Definitely not in next 2-3 years, I don’t think, but after that? Given how they don’t seem to give much of a feck about 3m EU nationals and how toxic the political climate will be post no-deal, I wouldn’t put anything past them.

My motto when dealing with anything government related, and especially legal residence statuses, is: “Better safe than sorry”. Take all the precautionary measures available to you. You’ll never end up regretting putting up with a little beaurocratic hassle as much as you’ll regret not putting up with it.
 
Wibble said:
Huh?

May never ruled out no deal.

Despite her being terrible she at least recognised that her deal was the only one the EU could agree to after bending over backwards to help her.

Not the EU's fault that the majority of MP's sensibly knew that leaving the EU, even with a deal, was a truly idiotic and self destructive idea.
Click to expand...

She absolutely did.
 
Adisa said:
This is a nonesense and fails to properly understand the EU position.
Click to expand...

Ill take what they people actually dealing with the situation say over your bullshit thoughts thanks.
 
MadMike said:
Like that would stop them or has stopped them before. Define “any time soon”. Definitely not in next 2-3 years, I don’t think, but after that? Given how they don’t seem to give much of a feck about 3m EU nationals and how toxic the political climate will be post no-deal, I wouldn’t put anything past them.

My motto when dealing with anything government related, and especially legal residence statuses, is: “Better safe than sorry”. Take all the precautionary measures available to you. You’ll never end up regretting putting up with a little beaurocratic hassle as much as you’ll regret not putting up with it.
Click to expand...
Spot on. Never trust government.

Look at those poor windrush people or look what’s happening in America now, people being told to get out who have been there for years
 
Ducklegs said:
Ill take what they people actually dealing with the situation say over your bullshit thoughts thanks.
Click to expand...
Yeah I agree, the people dealing with the situation have already shown themselves to be incredibly competent, trustworthy individuals over the last four years, after all!
 
For months, Labour has called for a general election so they'll look pretty foolish for rejecting it. Even if they don't look well placed to win a majority, it would at least put to bed the idea once and for all if Corbyn can lead his party. Another defeat and well, he's surely gone.

Cummings clearly thinks Johnson can appeal to the Labour constituencies in the north which voted leave.
 
Last edited:
Guy Incognito said:
For months, Labour has called for a general election so they'll look pretty foolish for rejecting it. Even if they don't look well placed to win a majority, it would at least put to bed the idea once and for all if Corbyn can lead his party. Another defeat and well, he's surely gone.

Cummings clearly thinks Johnson can appeal to the Labour constituencies in the north which voted remain.
Click to expand...

You must mean those who voted Leave? Not sure how a no-deal Tory party would appeal to remain labour voters.
 
Guy Incognito said:
For months, Labour has called for a general election so they'll look pretty foolish for rejecting it. Even if they don't look well placed to win a majority, it would at least put to bed the idea once and for all if Corbyn can lead his party. Another defeat and well, he's surely gone.

Cummings clearly thinks Johnson can appeal to the Labour constituencies in the north which voted leave.
Click to expand...

you would think so but I'm sure some in the part will feel its all the Medias / Blairs / Israel's fault and think third time lucky ... I'd hope he would fall on his own sword but the incompetent fool would probably miss
 
sun_tzu said:
Not really... It would close parliament anyway... And the rest is just for show anyway to show he's serious about a no deal for a general election
Looks like he wants to get some conservatives to vote against no deal... Then deselect them at which point he has no majority so will have to call a ge ... But with hard brexit manifesto and only MP's who have backed that... Which just so happens to be the brexit partys demands for an election pact
Pure Cummings and probably a 50 seat majority of labour don't withdraw candidates (which they won't) for a remain alliance
Cummings might be a cnut... But he's not daft

Also purda means no change in policy can be enacted... By law it's hard brexit on 31st October
Click to expand...

Seems you were right, I stand corrected on my earlier post. It's absolute madness though and shows Cummings isn't in control as much as he wants us to believe. [And that somebody else in government is pulling strings to counter his worst instincts] The progogation and threat of deselection was supposed to be enough to ward off rebel legislation [for a significant cost in political capital]; they clearly now don't think they have the numbers in parliament as of today. Purdah is going to be significant though; that 100m campaign, any advice to the queen, progogation itself, as well as no deal funding... all up in the air.

Corbyn is going to do the devils bidding by letting them call it. I'd be boxing them in and making them wait as a VoNC is more powerful.
 
Adisa said:
Click to expand...


The last sentence is delusional when it uses the words "cannot tell the public". That happens all the time in politics and it's called the blame game. The job of a politician is to convince a populace driven by sentiment that he/she is acting in their best interest and doing what's good for the country. As opposed to actually being that person. It's a game of perception with hardly any rules.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Far too many people's parents and grand parents would end up getting launched.
Click to expand...

Absolutely, Boris would lose about a third of his votes if he tried to 'sort out the Irish'.
Its a nonsense because its not just parents and grandparents, its Great Great Grandparents and beyond that, Irish folk of all denominations have been arriving in the UK for centuries, something like 40% of people in Britain in the fifties and sixties claimed Irish ancestry of some description (including myself). Whether they came to escape the ravages of their native land, or to build tunnels and roads, of to fight in the British Army, those of Irish descent are as entitled as anyone to call themselves British (although many will treat that as an insult...but none intended).
 
MadMike said:
The last sentence is delusional when it uses the words "cannot tell the public". That happens all the time in politics and it's called the blame game. The job of a politician is to convince a populace driven by sentiment that he/she is acting in their best interest and doing what's good for the country. As opposed to actually being that person. It's a game of perception with hardly any rules.
Click to expand...

He's implying you can't 'truthfully' tell the public.
 
P-Nut said:
He's implying you can't 'truthfully' tell the public.
Click to expand...

Truthfully is a word that is only used in politics as a meme. Especially in this decade. People who are surprised or shocked to that fact are either too green in following politics or too naive.
 
Maticmaker said:
Absolutely, Boris would lose about a third of his votes if he tried to 'sort out the Irish'.
Its a nonsense because its not just parents and grandparents, its Great Great Grandparents and beyond that, Irish folk of all denominations have been arriving in the UK for centuries, something like 40% of people in Britain in the fifties and sixties claimed Irish ancestry of some description (including myself). Whether they came to escape the ravages of their native land, or to build tunnels and roads, of to fight in the British Army, those of Irish descent are as entitled as anyone to call themselves British (although many will treat that as an insult...but none intended).
Click to expand...

Those you mention here for generations are already British citizens and have nothing to worry about. Those who are recent immigrants might very likely be asked to prove that they arrived in the UK pre-Brexit in the future, same as EU citizens. Especially if relationships with Ireland and the EU sour further in the aftermath of Brexit.

Better safe than sorry. Always. If you can get a paper that says you got here before Brexit, get it. It costs nothing and could save you a lot of hassle in the future.
 
Sassy Colin said:
A50 should have been revoked on 29 March (?)
Click to expand...


Yes of course it should, that has been the one and only time May/HM Government could have ensured stability. Her argument should have been "my deal was rejected, but it was the only one I could get, the only one the EU could give, I am standing down but will choose my version of the 'no deal' option, which means I am revoking A50 and proroguing parliament so a GE can be held."

However that moment passed, Boris seized the initiative and is offering his version of 'no deal'... also probably along with a GE, where he pitches himself as representing the people against the elite, frightening isn't it? Oh Theresa, 'she who hesitates is lost'!
 
MadMike said:
Truthfully is a word that is only used in politics as a meme. Especially in this decade. People who are surprised or shocked to that fact are either too green in following politics or too naive.
Click to expand...

It's like saying....

Ole can't stand there saying United will win the leagur.

Sure he can do if he wants but everyone knows it's not true
 
Maticmaker said:
Absolutely, Boris would lose about a third of his votes if he tried to 'sort out the Irish'.
Its a nonsense because its not just parents and grandparents, its Great Great Grandparents and beyond that, Irish folk of all denominations have been arriving in the UK for centuries, something like 40% of people in Britain in the fifties and sixties claimed Irish ancestry of some description (including myself). Whether they came to escape the ravages of their native land, or to build tunnels and roads, of to fight in the British Army, those of Irish descent are as entitled as anyone to call themselves British (although many will treat that as an insult...but none intended).
Click to expand...



This is a great documentary on the Irish immigrants of the 40s/50s, for anyone who's interested.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.