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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
sammsky1 said:
His role and actions are now being highly politicised by remain and labour sympathisers.

He’s (rightfully) getting huge abuse and criticism in mainstream and social media; being positioned as BJ’ Bannon etc.

The dismissal of Javed’s aide is going to be a fascinating sub plot next week, and I think it will lead to his removal.

Which would be a massive blow to BJ’s operational machinery, as I can’t imagine many others willing to be the ‘hatchet’ man.
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Can't see Cummings going at the moment... He's here to help Boris win an election (imo) and until that point anybody else is expendable ahead of him... After an election Boris will happily throw him under the (Boris/brexit/wooden crate) bus
 
sun_tzu said:
Can't see Cummings going at the moment... He's here to help Boris win an election (imo) and until that point anybody else is expendable ahead of him... After an election Boris will happily throw him under the (Boris/brexit/wooden crate) bus
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If I were on the remain side, I’d put resources and and team together to publicly take him down.

he is now under intense scrutiny, which will make it harder for him to operate in his bullyboy style. I also suspect there will be plenty of leaks about him, and perhaps some spectacular allegations about irregular practices so far. And the lady whom he fired will almost certainly sue for unfair dismissal.

He has also made many enemies through his career, so I also expect lots of juicy and salicious skeletons from his personal life to be exposed.

Taking him down damages Boris. Let’s see how the weeks PR plays out!
 
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sun_tzu said:
Can't see Cummings going at the moment... He's here to help Boris win an election (imo) and until that point anybody else is expendable ahead of him... After an election Boris will happily throw him under the (Boris/brexit/wooden crate) bus
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Apparently he only signed up to deliver Brexit, and will probably leave immediately afterwards anyway. He put a major medical procedure on hold to do this.
 
sun_tzu said:
Can't see Cummings going at the moment... He's here to help Boris win an election (imo) and until that point anybody else is expendable ahead of him... After an election Boris will happily throw him under the (Boris/brexit/wooden crate) bus
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Every Prime Minister who intends to get something done uses an 'enforcer'; with Thatcher it was Bernard Ingram, With Blair it was Alister Campbell, with Boris it is Dominic Cummings, its usually a sign of their intention to win, they will risk all the bad press and the name calling that may result as long as their 'enforcer' gets them over the line. You cant come second as PM, as David Cameron found out.
 
sammsky1 said:
BBC indicates that there is:

"What could happen next week in Parliament?

Any new law has to pass through all stages of both Houses of Parliament. This would usually take weeks, but it could be done in as little as three days this week.

However, the bill could be challenged by the government and fall at any stage. It could fail to achieve enough support from either MPs or peers in votes held in the Houses.
  • Tuesday: Opposition MPs are expected to put forward legislation to stop no deal under "SO24" or Standing Order 24 - the rule that allows MPs to ask for a debate on a "specific and important matter that should have urgent consideration". This would be the bill's first reading - its formal introduction to the House.
  • Wednesday: In theory, the bill would then be debated and could potentially pass through all stages of the Commons. However, the bill must pass through a series of votes and receive backing from more than half of MPs in order to pass on to the next stage.
  • Thursday: If MPs passed the bill, it could then reach the House of Lords by Thursday, but consideration of the bill could spill into Monday. It will be debated and voted on. The House is not due to sit on Friday.
  • Monday, 9 September: If the bill passes these hurdles it could gain Royal Assent, which formally makes it law."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-495419
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Thanks sam. If that's tried I can see a hundred or so Tory MPs all demanding to stand and speak for 15 minutes each, and at every stage too. I don't know if it's possible to stop that happening, or how stopping members speaking would fit in with parliamentary control if it were. All pretty irrelevant I expect, just part of a build-up to a vote of no confidence.
 
711 said:
I don't know if it's possible to stop that happening
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Only in the Lords, not the Commons.

Brexit supporting Lords can keep talking and/or proposing amendments almost forever and in effect talk it out. Also there is a rumour that a number of Tory Party donors are being lined-up to be made Lords, almost overnight, so they can swing the vote and in effect vote down anything the Government doesn't like.
 
711 said:
Thanks sam. If that's tried I can see a hundred or so Tory MPs all demanding to stand and speak for 15 minutes each, and at every stage too. I don't know if it's possible to stop that happening, or how stopping members speaking would fit in with parliamentary control if it were. All pretty irrelevant I expect, just part of a build-up to a vote of no confidence.
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It's quite common for the speaker to set time limits in debates. We've already had that quite a few times during key Brexit dates and they just end up sitting and debating late.
 
711 said:
Thanks sam. If that's tried I can see a hundred or so Tory MPs all demanding to stand and speak for 15 minutes each, and at every stage too. I don't know if it's possible to stop that happening, or how stopping members speaking would fit in with parliamentary control if it were. All pretty irrelevant I expect, just part of a build-up to a vote of no confidence.
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Yeah, Filibuster in House of Lords also very possible.

Gonna be fascinating to the the tactics and strategies from both sides.

Am sure they are all reading ‘The Art of War’ as we speak!
 
Smores said:
It's quite common for the speaker to set time limits in debates. We've already had that quite a few times during key Brexit dates and they just end up sitting and debating late.
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Thanks. I've heard of guillotines too but I can't remember under what circumstances I must admit. I wonder who has the authority to set time limits on debates, the speaker or the government?
 
711 said:
Thanks. I've heard of guillotines too but I can't remember under what circumstances I must admit. I wonder who has the authority to set time limits on debates, the speaker or the government?
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I believe it's solely the speaker but I'm not sure if those whose legislation is being discussed need to approve or not.

Of course the government set the day's overall timetable so they can try and restrict debate, i think Leadsom did just this. Private members bills tend to get sort of fillibustered because they don't get much time for debate and Tories often speak and raise long interventions, shouldn't be an issue for dedicated days though.
 
What are people's views on opposition party's forming a Government of National Unity (GNU) to overthrow the current elected party and it's leader(s)?
 
Smores said:
I believe it's solely the speaker but I'm not sure if those whose legislation is being discussed need to approve or not.

Of course the government set the day's overall timetable so they can try and restrict debate, i think Leadsom did just this. Private members bills tend to get sort of fillibustered because they don't get much time for debate and Tories often speak and raise long interventions, shouldn't be an issue for dedicated days though.
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You can bet both the government and it's opponents will be trying every trick in the book on this one.
 
WensleyMU said:
What are people's views on opposition party's forming a Government of National Unity (GNU) to overthrow the current elected party and it's leader(s)?
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It's not the opposition overthrowing the government, that can't happen unless the DUP decide to turn. We also don't elect a party.
 
So what happens if the EU do offer an extension? Apparently Gordon Brown thinks it's a possbility.

Surely parliament would pass this if they get a chance.
 
Smores said:
It's not the opposition overthrowing the government, that can't happen unless the DUP decide to turn. We also don't elect a party.
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They seem to think it's possible, at least a number have spoken about backing he or she as a temporary PM in a GNU.
 
WensleyMU said:
They seem to think it's possible, at least a number have spoken about backing he or she as a temporary PM in a GNU.
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It's Tory MPs overthrowing their own government. Only a governments own MPs can kick it out.
 
WensleyMU said:
What are people's views on opposition party's forming a Government of National Unity (GNU) to overthrow the current elected party and it's leader(s)?
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What do we think about a majority government superseding a minority government? I don’t have a problem with it.
 
Pexbo said:
What do we think about a majority government superseding a minority government? I don’t have a problem with it.
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I don't think there is anybody who would currently be able to command the confidence of the house
Corbyn would whip labour MPs to vote down anybody but him
And Corbyn is an incompetent fektard and has such has no chance of commanding a majority
General election seems only way to break deadlock
 
sun_tzu said:
I don't think there is anybody who would currently be able to command the confidence of the house
Corbyn would whip labour MPs to vote down anybody but him
And Corbyn is an incompetent fektard and has such has no chance of commanding a majority
General election seems only way to break deadlock
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Ooooh an anti-Corbyn post from @sun_tzu what a novelty!
 
Pexbo said:
What do we think about a majority government superseding a minority government? I don’t have a problem with it.
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Nor would I but I also don't see how it's possible right now, at least in terms of a GNU coming together.

It would be chaos as well because whole they might kind of agree on a single issue, and even then, it's a very weak agreement, they disagree on just about everything else, including who should be leader.

And in the event of a GE, Boris is currently polling far ahead of everyone else, and that's the most recent polls done after the announcement to suspend parliament.
 
Let's also factor in a gnu probably has to be in place a minimum of 6 months to organise a referendum... And 6 months is a long time in politics... There will be world events etc that simply have to be reacted to and I simply can't see them agreeing on anything (other than delaying brexit) to be able to manage that
 
sun_tzu said:
Let's also factor in a gnu probably has to be in place a minimum of 6 months to organise a referendum... And 6 months is a long time in politics... There will be world events etc that simply have to be reacted to and I simply can't see them agreeing on anything (other than delaying brexit) to be able to manage that
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There's also the issue of every other thing that isn't Brexit, the stuff they disagree on massively.

It would be chaos for certain. Nothing at all would be achieved beyond maybe hampering Brexit.

And that's assuming they achieve their one single aim, which certainly isn't a given.
 
sun_tzu said:
Let's also factor in a gnu probably has to be in place a minimum of 6 months to organise a referendum... And 6 months is a long time in politics... There will be world events etc that simply have to be reacted to and I simply can't see them agreeing on anything (other than delaying brexit) to be able to manage that
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Which is why a GE has to come first but I'm sure it was you who argued the opposite with me (could be wrong).
 
It seems like a move to please Trump.
 
Smores said:
Which is why a GE has to come first but I'm sure it was you who argued the opposite with me (could be wrong).
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It's a condition of the libs greens and I think plaid
SNP are flexible
Labour say ge has to be before referendum (well corybn etc many labour MPs want a referendum before as well)

Probably easier to get one party to change policy than three I'd guess

It's all irelvant if they can't find somebody who can carry a majority though and at the moment (unless Corbyn will back a ken Clarke type person) that looks very unlikely
 
Flying high said:
So what happens if the EU do offer an extension? Apparently Gordon Brown thinks it's a possbility.

Surely parliament would pass this if they get a chance.
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Why would they offer us one? They are sick of it as much as we are.
 
DavidDeSchmikes said:
election before 31st October?
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I wouldn't be shocked if Boris called an election vote to outflank any no confidence motion
Call the election for 24th October and fight it on leave / remain
I think with the prorouging basically he only has to see this week out and then any no confidence motion would take place too late for an election this side of 31st
Basically it needs to be called Tuesday or Wednesday I think
 
sun_tzu said:
I wouldn't be shocked if Boris called an election vote to outflank any no confidence motion
Call the election for 24th October and fight it on leave / remain
I think with the prorouging basically he only has to see this week out and then any no confidence motion would take place too late for an election this side of 31st
Basically it needs to be called Tuesday or Wednesday I think
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part of me thinks it will
 
DavidDeSchmikes said:
part of me thinks it will
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Part of me thinks Boris will announce tomorrow that there will be a ge vote on Tuesday as the first thing
Would circumvent the no confidence motion plus basically stop any parliamentary time to force an extension
It would be straight out of the Cummings playbook
Might even skip the custom of Thursday elections and call the election on 30th ... Makes all the other parties have to say they will extend A50 within 1 day should they win
 
sun_tzu said:
Part of me thinks Boris will announce tomorrow that there will be a ge vote on Tuesday as the first thing
Would circumvent the no confidence motion plus basically stop any parliamentary time to force an extension
It would be straight out of the Cummings playbook
Might even skip the custom of Thursday elections and call the election on 30th ... Makes all the other parties have to say they will extend A50 within 1 day should they win
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Extending would require EU approval, no? Surely then it would be a case of withdrawing A50 completely?
 
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