Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Would be ... if people had a idea of what the deal was. What exactly are people voting for when almost all efforts till now have been unsuccessful to various extent. You're asking for a vote giving no details.

Labours policy is to negotiate a deal to be put against remain in the referendum. Which makes sense for any responsible party to do. So voters would know what the details are by the time of the referendum.
 
Yes, if the UK agreed on something but any one of the 27 didn't agree, then it doesn't pass.

All sides have to agree.

This is why trade deals between the EU and others take years, even decades to conclude.

The EU is supposed to negotiate with the UK and it's members. The UK with its own parliament and the EU.

But all the 27 EU agreed quickly and the UK still haven't agreed anything amongst themeselves so don't know what you're getting at. The trade deals you get will be negotiated with blocks of countries, the UK are one of the very few who will be negotiating alone with no muscle. The Uk will have left the big boys, USA China and the EU.

You have said many times that the EU should renegotiate, who should they negotiate with because negotiating with the UK government is a waste of time, as you said?
 
Labours policy is to negotiate a deal to be put against remain in the referendum. Which makes sense for any responsible party to do. So voters would know what the details are by the time of the referendum.

Which should first be ratified by parliament and by the EU27 otherwise it's pointless.
Of course bearing in mind that Corbyn's plan has been overwhelmingly voted against 3 times in parliament already and is a non-starter.
 
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The almost universally accepted view now seems to be that whatever else it may do, a 'No deal' Brexit will force the UK out of its comfort zone. This may also be true of the EU, whether to perhaps a greater or lesser extent is unsure.

There is already talk of the UK splitting up, Scotland obviously looking at independence, possible a way can be found to unite Ireland (big if here since they cannot even get Stormont up and running, but its possible), Wales may also press for independence and there could even be an English Parliament as well within then what would be a true UK Parliament. The likelihood of 'political landscape changes' appear to be endless; however the economic facts will definitely change and there will be winners and losers.

Yet history shows us that as a trading nation, a nation of shopkeepers as Bonaparte once remarked, we will survive. As long we are still be able to sell our wares and services, providing we produce these at the right time and the right price we will find markets to trade in. No one like change, even those who will eventually benefit from the change initially resist it (as someone great once said).

The truth seems to be there is now no going back from Brexit, bridges are being burned even as we contemplate the nearing of the 31st Oct... unless of course its all fake news!
 
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Ouch... even by Corbyn's normal standards that's a bad poll
Labour are going to be smashed in the upcoming election if hes still the leader
 
To be honest, I don't get the feeling that Corbyn is fussed enough about Brexit to compromise on his current stance. Firstly he's a Brexiteer. Secondly he leads a party who's electorate is pretty divided on issue, so no need for him to over-extend to either side. Thirdly if a no-deal Brexit happens and is (inevitably) greatly damaging, he hopes he can milk it by pinning it on the Tories. So I reckon he'll just stick to it, until Brexit happens.

I don't see Tory MPs rebelling to the point that they give him the keys to #10, so that'll be that. Personally I think Ken Clarke in a temporary government to avert no deal makes sense. It's still a Tory MP, so it will entice Tories to rebellion. His stance will anyway be moderated by the fact that the bulk of his support would be coming from Labour MPs who could withdraw support any minute and bring it down.

What matters more is the remit of the temp govt. They all agree on applying for extension to avert no deal. But then Corbyn wants a GE, Swinson wants a referendum and god knows what the Tory rebels want.

I think it's just a countdown towards the inevitable.
 
Which should first be ratified by parliament and by the EU27 otherwise it's pointless.
Of course bearing in mind that Corbyn's plan has been overwhelmingly voted against 3 times in parliament already and is a non-starter.

Well surprisingly enough it's hard for the opposition party to pass legislation. If Labour got more seats in a GE then there would be more MPs to vote for it.

If Labour are not successful in passing a deal through parliament then they will back remain over doing what the Tories are doing and trying to push no-deal through.
 
I don't get why remainers want Ken Clarke as temporary PM when he has said he'd have no plans for a 2nd ref. If you're a remainer and you back him over Corbyn then you're a fecking idiot to put it bluntly.
 
To be honest, I don't get the feeling that Corbyn is fussed enough about Brexit to compromise on his current stance. Firstly he's a Brexiteer. Secondly he leads a party who's electorate is pretty divided on issue, so no need for him to over-extend to either side. Thirdly if a no-deal Brexit happens and is (inevitably) greatly damaging, he hopes he can milk it by pinning it on the Tories. So I reckon he'll just stick to it, until Brexit happens.

I don't see Tory MPs rebelling to the point that they give him the keys to #10, so that'll be that. Personally I think Ken Clarke in a temporary government to avert no deal makes sense. It's still a Tory MP, so it will entice Tories to rebellion. His stance will anyway be moderated by the fact that the bulk of his support would be coming from Labour MPs who could withdraw support any minute and bring it down.

What matters more is the remit of the temp govt. They all agree on applying for extension to avert no deal. But then Corbyn wants a GE, Swinson wants a referendum and god knows what the Tory rebels want.

I think it's just a countdown towards the inevitable.

It's a mess, isn't it? I can't see any temporary government lasting long enough and having the unity to agree upon and pass the legislation for a second referendum. A general election is more likely in my view but even then there's no guarantees that could harbour a consensus. My guess/hope is that there's an achievable compromise with Corbyn willing to let a figure like Clarke lead a temporary government in return for the Lib Dems etc acquiescing to a GE preceding a second referendum.
 
Yes, if the UK agreed on something but any one of the 27 didn't agree, then it doesn't pass.

All sides have to agree.

This is why trade deals between the EU and others take years, even decades to conclude.

The EU is supposed to negotiate with the UK and it's members. The UK with its own parliament and the EU.


SO if the UK doesn't ratify the agreement, nothing we can do, the UK is not the problem. If EU doesn't agree on renegotiating and it goes to No deal (is the default option of UK actions triggering article 50) and needs to put a hard border under the WTA rules (that the EU and UK ratified as an international treaty) is the EU that we should blame

hypocritical much?
 
To be honest, I don't get the feeling that Corbyn is fussed enough about Brexit to compromise on his current stance. Firstly he's a Brexiteer. Secondly he leads a party who's electorate is pretty divided on issue, so no need for him to over-extend to either side. Thirdly if a no-deal Brexit happens and is (inevitably) greatly damaging, he hopes he can milk it by pinning it on the Tories. So I reckon he'll just stick to it, until Brexit happens.

I don't see Tory MPs rebelling to the point that they give him the keys to #10, so that'll be that. Personally I think Ken Clarke in a temporary government to avert no deal makes sense. It's still a Tory MP, so it will entice Tories to rebellion. His stance will anyway be moderated by the fact that the bulk of his support would be coming from Labour MPs who could withdraw support any minute and bring it down.

What matters more is the remit of the temp govt. They all agree on applying for extension to avert no deal. But then Corbyn wants a GE, Swinson wants a referendum and god knows what the Tory rebels want.

I think it's just a countdown towards the inevitable.
Personally think Corbyn is a waste of space but having him as temp PM in order to block no deal I could live with. With emphasis on temp. However I can’t see enough tories going for this.
 
The closer it gets the more depressing the thought. How anyone still thinks that things like paying more for less choice, lack of meds, hospital staff shortages, etc etc etc is a good exchange for “taking back control” is a good idea is beyond me. I refer of course to the ordinary man and not those sly pricks who stand to profit from it
 
I don't get why remainers want Ken Clarke as temporary PM when he has said he'd have no plans for a 2nd ref. If you're a remainer and you back him over Corbyn then you're a fecking idiot to put it bluntly.

Well a lot of Remainers would see us leave the EU if the alternative was a Corbyn government. They are fully aware of the legitimacy having even a temporary seat in No. 10 would bestow upon Corbyn.
 
It's been my point all along. That the WA is dead, and unless the EU is willing to come back to the table, then we leave with no deal.

Others keep refering to the 27 agreeing to it. I've maintained that the UK didn't pass it so therefore it is no longer under consideration.
And yet what Johnson seems to be proposing to the EU is a modified version of the WA. Assuming the EU don’t modify it (and I don’t see how they can although perhaps there’s a fudge instead) the options are still revoke, fudged WA, no deal. The WA is still in play. (Edit: and I mean fudged not renegotiated - perhaps there’s fiddling with words and timescales on the backstop which leave its fundamentals unchanged but are enough for Johnson to save face.)
 
Well a lot of Remainers would see us leave the EU if the alternative was a Corbyn government. They are fully aware of the legitimacy having even a temporary seat in No. 10 would bestow upon Corbyn.
Agreed although I’m not sure how much legitimacy it’d give the remain side having such a disastrous leader fronting it, even if temporarily.
 
Well surprisingly enough it's hard for the opposition party to pass legislation. If Labour got more seats in a GE then there would be more MPs to vote for it.

If Labour are not successful in passing a deal through parliament then they will back remain over doing what the Tories are doing and trying to push no-deal through.

Yes but it would need an overall majority for Labour to do that and for all their MPs to back it. The Tories had many more seats and partners and still couldn't get anything through. Also to remember what he is proposing won't be possible but let's imagine it would.
What does backing remain mean and stopping no deal - hope that there is a referendum and that remain would win it and then he revokes A50?
 
The closer it gets the more depressing the thought. How anyone still thinks that things like paying more for less choice, lack of meds, hospital staff shortages, etc etc etc is a good exchange for “taking back control” is a good idea is beyond me. I refer of course to the ordinary man and not those sly pricks who stand to profit from it

They don't even want control, open borders , no control over their imports, they want to keep the same regulations, democracy out the window, they could have their 3rd unelected PM quite soon. The image of utopia is blurred.
 
It's a mess, isn't it? I can't see any temporary government lasting long enough and having the unity to agree upon and pass the legislation for a second referendum. A general election is more likely in my view but even then there's no guarantees that could harbour a consensus. My guess/hope is that there's an achievable compromise with Corbyn willing to let a figure like Clarke lead a temporary government in return for the Lib Dems etc acquiescing to a GE preceding a second referendum.

The reality is that a GE preceding a referendum doesn't really suit Labour or Lib Dems.

Labour with Corbyn in charge will tank in a GE. Especially one that takes place before Brexit. They will lose their hardcore remainers to Lib Dems and their hardcore Brexiteers to either TBP (for those that kind find the heart to vote Tory) or the Tories. This would be a single issue GE and they're sitting on the fence. They will still get plenty MPs because there's always a bunch of traditional Labour voters who are Labour first beyond policies or faces. But any chance of Corbyn becoming PM will hinge on support from Swinson and it's doubtful he'll get it after erecting his back. He's probably playing the long game for the election after the next and who knows i the party will still support him.

Lib Dems want to stop Brexit and fear a GE will not deliver the needed result, because in essence the two biggest parties are pro-Brexit atm. So they want the referendum to settle the issue before a GE. Who can they support after a GE with Brexit still undecided? Corbyn who wants a long extension, renegotiation (prolonging the uncertainty for gods knows how many more years) and then putting it for a referendum backing leave? Or Boris who's after no-deal Brexit? You can see why they feel that going to a Ref now is by far their best chance to cancel Brexit.
 
Yes but it would need an overall majority for Labour to do that and for all their MPs to back it. The Tories had many more seats and partners and still couldn't get anything through. Also to remember what he is proposing won't be possible but let's imagine it would.
What does backing remain mean and stopping no deal - hope that there is a referendum and that remain would win it and then he revokes A50?

Labour have to make their publicly facing post-GE plans assume a majority for obvious reasons. I'm sure they have an idea of what they want to do if they didn't achieve that. Same for whether or not they'd achieve a new and "improved" deal that they can present to the public.

Stopping no-deal means having a referendum where no-deal is not a choice.

Backing remain would mean that Labour would support the remain choice in the 2nd ref in their campaigning.

Regardless of whether they back remain, if remain won a 2nd ref they would honour the result and revoke A50
 
Personally think Corbyn is a waste of space but having him as temp PM in order to block no deal I could live with. With emphasis on temp. However I can’t see enough tories going for this.

Personally I wouldn't mind him either. But the problem as you said is that it doesn't work because Tory MPs won't rebel to that extend, even if Swinson buckles under pressure and gives in. He still needs some Tory rebels especially as there might be rebels from his side as well
 
Labour have to make their publicly facing post-GE plans assume a majority for obvious reasons. I'm sure they have an idea of what they want to do if they didn't achieve that. Same for whether or not they'd achieve a new and "improved" deal that they can present to the public.

Stopping no-deal means having a referendum where no-deal is not a choice.

Backing remain would mean that Labour would support the remain choice in the 2nd ref in their campaigning.

Regardless of whether they back remain, if remain won a 2nd ref they would honour the result and revoke A50

I don't see how they can be for both. Any form of Brexit will be a disaster for the UK and especially for the people Labour are supposed to represent.

But anyway, I would pay to witness Corbyn sign the letter of revocation.
 
I don't see how they can be for both. Any form of Brexit will be a disaster for the UK and especially for the people Labour are supposed to represent.

But anyway, I would pay to witness Corbyn sign the letter of revocation.

They are pro remain but also pro respecting the result of the original referendum which is also where I stand. It's a ridiculous situation to be in but that's the Conservative party's fault for having the referendum in the first place and opening Pandora's box.
 
Tory remainers are getting such an easy ride in this. Corbyn expected to stand down, lib Dems expected to support Corbyn. Labour MPs expected to support a Tory caretaker PM. But no one ever expects Tories to do the right thing. Remainers should be putting more pressure on them rather than Corbyn/Lib dems.

Edit: of course Jo Swinson is partly to blame for this by saying it for them.
 
SO if the UK doesn't ratify the agreement, nothing we can do, the UK is not the problem. If EU doesn't agree on renegotiating and it goes to No deal (is the default option of UK actions triggering article 50) and needs to put a hard border under the WTA rules (that the EU and UK ratified as an international treaty) is the EU that we should blame

hypocritical much?

The UK is FAR from blameless. Incompetence is the word which best describes the UK parliament(s).
 
Tory remainers are getting such an easy ride in this. Corbyn expected to stand down, lib Dems expected to support Corbyn. Labour MPs expected to support a Tory caretaker PM. But no one ever expects Tories to do the right thing. Remainers should be putting more pressure on them rather than Corbyn/Lib dems.

Edit: of course Jo Swinson is partly to blame for this by saying it for them.

Yeah cause Tory MPs would have otherwise supported a Corbyn govt, if Swinson hadn’t told them not too :rolleyes:

I agree that they get an easier ride indeed, but there’s no great mystery to it. In the public’s eyes Tory = No Deal atm. So the onus is on the parties that want Remain or Soft Brexit to come to a workable solution.
 
I'm under the impression that in an ideal world for Boris, he holds an election , gets enough of a majority to not have to depend on the DUP and allow Northern Ireland to remain in the CU and SM and have the border in the Irish Sea.

I think he wants a no-deal. Will want to go down as the PM who actually delivered what the people voted for. Regardless of consequences.
 
Yeah cause Tory MPs would have otherwise supported a Corbyn govt, if Swinson hadn’t told them not too :rolleyes:

I agree that they get an easier ride indeed, but there’s no great mystery to it. In the public’s eyes Tory = No Deal atm. So the onus is on the parties that want Remain or Soft Brexit to come to a workable solution.

Roll eyes all you want, regardless of what they would have done anyway the fact is she made it easier for them to say no and she made it easier for them to not have to justify their position in doing so.
 
The reality is that a GE preceding a referendum doesn't really suit Labour or Lib Dems.

Labour with Corbyn in charge will tank in a GE. Especially one that takes place before Brexit. They will lose their hardcore remainers to Lib Dems and their hardcore Brexiteers to either TBP (for those that kind find the heart to vote Tory) or the Tories. This would be a single issue GE and they're sitting on the fence. They will still get plenty MPs because there's always a bunch of traditional Labour voters who are Labour first beyond policies or faces. But any chance of Corbyn becoming PM will hinge on support from Swinson and it's doubtful he'll get it after erecting his back. He's probably playing the long game for the election after the next and who knows i the party will still support him.

Lib Dems want to stop Brexit and fear a GE will not deliver the needed result, because in essence the two biggest parties are pro-Brexit atm. So they want the referendum to settle the issue before a GE. Who can they support after a GE with Brexit still undecided? Corbyn who wants a long extension, renegotiation (prolonging the uncertainty for gods knows how many more years) and then putting it for a referendum backing leave? Or Boris who's after no-deal Brexit? You can see why they feel that going to a Ref now is by far their best chance to cancel Brexit.

We've heard that before, though. Labour will definitely not get a majority on their own but there's no reason why an election would not result in a composition more favourable to opposing No Deal and/or Remain. It's the only solution as I see it. I don't see why the Lib Dems fear a GE but seem so willing for a second referendum. There's every chance the answer comes back unchanged. What then? To me, it makes most sense to try and get a more favourable alliance in the HoC before a referendum on the basis that you might not get the answer you want.
 
During the leadership campaign BoJo was claiming the atmosphere had change within EU and that the EU was willing to negotiate the Irish backstop. Now BoJo is claiming that the EU is unwilling to renegotiate because of Tory remainers trying to stop a hard Brexit. Further, BoJo accuses the EU of playing hardball. This from the man threatening not to pay the 36billion divorce bill as part of his negotiation tactics.
BoJo is a bullshitter who’s completely out of his dept.
 
During the leadership campaign BoJo was claiming the atmosphere had change within EU and that the EU was willing to negotiate the Irish backstop. Now BoJo is claiming that the EU is unwilling to renegotiate because of Tory remainers trying to stop a hard Brexit. Further, BoJo accuses the EU of playing hardball. This from the man threatening not to pay the 36billion divorce bill as part of his negotiation tactics.
BoJo is a bullshitter who’s completely out of his dept.

He is a bluffer and the EU knows it.