Its close to 9%, and thats just the membership. Their power to cripple the entire country was well evident less than 2 months back.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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Do you really think that amount of people will become redundant in France? If so, what on earth will happen to the UK?
Once the EU deal is done, the only deals that that will need to be re-negotiated will be South Africa, South Korea, Chile and Mexico and Isreal. I think those can be wrapped up within the next 5 years at most.
The EU is so slow that it wont be able to agree a trade deal with India or China or even the US in the next 20 years. Any country of decent size can get deals done in 5-7 years.
As far as trade with outside world is concerned it will be a huge positive for the UK in the long run.
Isolated tiny country
Get your delusion sorted.
No, maybe 2% of that. But if job losses are at risk all of them would strike. Any such thing is highly unlikely to happen though.
I dont think there is going to be much change over all with this vote. By the end of this parliament, a facade of brexit will be put up with hardly any change in the trading or free movement.
The country wasn't crippled at all and it's 7.7%, most of them aren't concerned by the UK since they work for the state., the others hate strikes. Most importantly France do not allocate 8% of its workforce for the UK and even if it was the case, they would get new jobs from the companies fleeing the UK.
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=UN_DEN&Lang=fr
You are missing the context, my post was in the context "If the EU trade with UK stopped" as the other poster was saying. Its an extreme scenario that has zero likely hood of happening.
As for the 8% of number, its the ballpart. 8% of french exports are made to the UK. If the trade stops (which is impossible) 8% of french jobs would be at risk.
Basically, Ignore my discussion above with @devilish. I am trying to debunk a fools premise that he is peddling. I have way too much time on my hand this weekend.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/european-voters-reject-generous-deal/
But don't those French people know what the UK voted for them to do?
But don't those French people know what the UK voted for them to do?
You do realise that the worst case scenario isn't zero trade, it's trade with 21% VAT. And my problem is only with your strike fantasy.
VAT?? You mean Import duties? Its more likely to be 10-12%. Still a very unlikely outcome.
The whole Idea of "no trade" is a rediculous fantasy. Anything dont to debunk it will be as such.
You are debunking nothing, you are spouting nonsense onto nonsense.
And the standard VAT is between 19.6% and 21% most of the time.
Hence I told you to ignore it. So I dont see whats your problem.
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that's what I have told him but he's still rambling on and on
Once the EU deal is done, the only deals that that will need to be re-negotiated will be South Africa, South Korea, Chile and Mexico and Isreal. I think those can be wrapped up within the next 5 years at most.
The EU is so slow that it wont be able to agree a trade deal with India or China or even the US in the next 20 years. Any country of decent size can get deals done in 5-7 years.
As far as trade with outside world is concerned it will be a huge positive for the UK in the long run.
Isolated tiny country
Get your delusion sorted.
The EU provide its members with preferential treatment to over 50 countries outside the EU. Economy of scale allowed the EU to cut a great deal for each individual country something the UK won't be able to do since its a small nation. For example Switzerland had to accept China's terms with the latter having immediate and unrestricted access to the Swiss market while the former cherrypicking and delaying which markets Switzerland will be able to have access too. That's the benefit of being big.
What utter bollocks.
You want to make deals with nations whos workers and environment have much less protection than those of the EU, that means we won't compete on a level playing field. This is what the tarrifs exist for, this is why it takes the EU so long to make deals. It may be low growth but the EU offers 500 million people a very good standard of work and living and you'd chuck it all away for free trade with nations that don't
Thanks. When is the next General Election normally due?
No, I dont think leave leaders took us out to create a social utopia. Worker rights will get hit no doubt about it.
No, a lot of the 500 million people still have a good standard of work and living despite the EU, which is only in full force for the last 6 years, so the lowering of standards of work and living has only gotten up to speed recently.
The high standard of work and living, as well as the peace and the economic growth in general, has been offered by Western-European democracies. Taking away trade barriers has helped the economic growth and the (predecessors of) the EU have been helpful in that, but that's not the root of the success. The root is democracy, which through laws and regulations concerning the economy and education has brought a big spending middle class, a spending and aspiring working class with class mobility and a responsible elite. The EU serves the elite that no longer wants to be responsible. The EU is the end of democracy as we know it, and therefore the end of healthy economic growth, the end of good standards of work and living, and I wouldn't take the continuation of peace for granted either.
China proves you don't need democracy for healthy economic growth. Singapore is another example with its one party state.
We have zero hour contracts not because of the EU, but because of our governments indifference. We have lowered living standards as regulation is seen as burdunsome. As part of the EU some of the UK governments right wing tendancy is checked. Outside the EU they will have a free hand to destroy all you hold dear
This. It's not the economy so much that worries me (although it does worry me) it is Britain at the mercy of an ideologically driven elitist and unchecked right wing political class.
That depends on what you mean by healthy and by economic. For growth GDP in a situation China is coming from it isn't necessary, but this certainly doesn't offer good standard in working and living. Also an authoritarian regime can make sensible economic policies, but the fact is that minimum wages, high employment, good education for everybody, vacations, good working hours are the result of democracy in North-Western Europe.
With shortage of labour, zero hour contracts won't be signed and stop beeing offered, so unlimited immigration is certainly a gamechanger. If your government isn't doing well in protecting workers, you can vote in a government who does. The EU won't check right wing tendencies, the people who run the EU are exposed to a billion euro industry of lobbyists and aren't checked by voters.
I'm not saying that the Brexit won't at least have a bad short term effect on economic growth in the UK. But most remainers are in total denial about what the EU has become the last decade.
What about his second example of Singapore then? Very high standard of living, education, high wages, high employment, good working conditions and all in a dictatorship.
Zero hour contracts aren't a way for employers to avoid keeping people fully employed, they were created as a way for unscrupulous employers to circumvent EU regulations on workers rights. With the EU out of the picture, I don't see how anyone can have any faith that our employers and politicians are suddenly going to treat the workers better.
Your whole stance against the EU seems to stem from this fallacy that it is somehow anti-democratic and borders on the more lunatic ramblings in these threads where people's anti globalisation fantasies shift into talk of the New World Order and the Illuminati. All politics faces industry lobbying, the EU no more than any other but that does not mean the EU bow to the pressure of lobbyists, take it from the words of Rupert Murdoch himself, he was anti EU because unlike Downing Street, Brussels ignores him when he tries to throw his weight around.
We have effectively consigned ourselves to the next year to three years in a state of economic limbo and killed any signs of recovery our country was seeing. Businesses will leave the UK if the uncertainty is not resolved and our workers will suffer as a result. Any deal we sign to trade to the EU is likely to see us paying in as much as we do now but without the rebates and grants we benefited from before, it is likely to require free movement of EU citizens, it is likely we will have to maintain many of the same European standards and laws and we will no longer have any say over the making of those laws and standards. Yes, we can trade with the rest of the world, but we already did that and our deals were negotiated as part of a far stronger free trade area rather than as a lone nation so the chances are, especially given how bloody great our politicians and negotiators are, we will end up with worse deals all round.
We've fecked our economy, we've fecked our kids futures, we've fecked our workers rights and all for a deal which is likely to be worse than the one we already have but so long as we can stick two fingers up at the sinister bogey man of the global industrial complex who we believe is pulling the strings we're all good
If there are bogey men in this we need look no further than Murdoch, Viscount Rothmere, Nigel Farage, Ian Duncan Smith, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.We've fecked our economy, we've fecked our kids futures, we've fecked our workers rights and all for a deal which is likely to be worse than the one we already have but so long as we can stick two fingers up at the sinister bogey man of the global industrial complex who we believe is pulling the strings we're all good
Hear fecking hear!
But not America? They don't have manditory holidays there or maternity/paternity leave. They have too much democracy. Also if democracy is the key why are so many democracies poor? We only got a minimum wage in 1997 but we'd been a democracy for a long while before that.
Yes a labour shortage should drag up standards, however in practice we won't live in a closed system, if labour costs too much here business will outsource to where its not.
I'm sure no lobbying will go on in the UK now we are leaving.
Lets play it your way, vote the Tories out, except they'd have sold all public services on decades long contracts before we'd get the chance
You've a decent idea of the problems, but your reasoning for leaving the EU as a solution to this make no sense
As I said, also an authoritarian regime can have sensible policies that benefit all of the population. But you need democracy to be able to make sure.
That depends on who you vote for. Within the EU that's not the case, there is no election result that will make a relevant difference.
He has no weight there, he should put some real effort in like the others, great diners, great lunches, great gifts (is allowed for the EU), great parties, promise jobs for the future with great salaries. The EU isn't somehow anti-democratic, it's just antidemocratic. It takes power away from elected officials and puts it in the hands from unelected officials, that's the core of 'European integration'. The policies are clear evidence that they bow to lobbyists.
The vengance of the eurocrats is the biggest issue in the negotiations, but that will be bad for the people of the member states also and the EU has to take care of the littel goodwill it has still left. If it's just negotiating trade deals on the basis of mutual interest and reciprocity there should be no big problems.
Democracy hasn't come without a fight and if you just bend over and give it away you won't get it back without a fight.We've fecked our economy, we've fecked our kids futures, we've fecked our workers rights and all for a deal which is likely to be worse than the one we already have but so long as we can stick two fingers up at the sinister bogey man of the global industrial complex who we believe is pulling the strings we're all good
I don't consider America a democracy. There's hardly any choice on economic matters, you can choose between two candidates financed and put forward by corporate America. They don't even bother to organize fair elections. That explains why they have to work so hard, have almost no vacation, and there are so many working poor. America destroyed it's own middle class and is partly living off the past and partly living off the future.The USA is just a few decades ahead of the EU in terms of corporate power and economic inequality.
What can be outsourced is already outsourced. It's impossible to compete with people who can live on 10 pounds a day, that's whay you shouldn't try to have British workers compete with Eastern Europeans in Britain on labour cost. Compete with them on talent or skill, that's fine of cours.
Labour shortage isn't good, and job shortage isn't good, that's why you have to control immigration. Not stop immigration.
If you're in the EU, it's a one way street. You're not allowed to privetized public services into public services again.
The EU is not going to change if no one dares to say no. I'm not anti-European, I'm not even anti-EU, which is something competely different of course. The required change is very simple, let Europeans in a European election decide which Europeans have the power over the EU as an institution. Not this divide and rule EU parlement which is based on nationalistic principles and is designed to keep voters powerless. If voters don't have the power to determine policies the big corporations will just as the rich determined policies before the days of democracy.
Why do you have to have democracy to be sure? All I see in the many peaceful and moderately successful democracies around this world are petty bickering parties that niggle away at each other to gain a slight lead and win their next 5 years unpicking any progress the previous mob made. The global political pole is lurching more rightwards every year and yet the two or three party democratic system in most countries simply dance happily around the maypole whilst workers rights continue to diminish, the gap between the richest and poorest continues to grow and big business prospers.
I've lived and worked for much of my career in Hong Kong, Singapore and India and can assure you that the dictatorship and the satellite state to the communist party were both far easier to work in, do business in and live and raise children in than the worlds largest democracy but having returned to the UK I'd have to put our political system at the bottom of the list due to the sheer corrupt, lying, incompetence they manage to display on a daily basis and their complete contempt for the people who elect them.
It makes no difference who you vote for given the farcical political dance I described in response to your first point. What is needed is stronger worker representation that prevents employers instigating unfair working practices, that would require a strong, union backed left wing party and the chances of one of them ever rising again in the UK are up there with Shergar winning next years Grand National. We killed our own unions decades ago and our right wing governement (even under Blair and Brown) don't give a damn about workers rights, the only thing that has helped slow the erosion of rights is the unionized voices from Europe and their EU legislation but we've just cast that aside.
Any proof or facts about the bungs and bribes big business uses to sway the EU? We've seen plenty on how our own politicians can been bribed, bought and bunged and know it goes on at National levels in other countries with the likes of Berlusconi, but I can't think I've ever seen that sort of scandal within the EU parliament.
Any examples of powers taken away from elected officials and handed to unelected ones? It's a phrase I keep hearing bandied around but I've seen no examples of cases where it is true. Yes there are unelected Technocrats in and around Brussels but I see nothing wrong with asking an expert to do a relevant job, I have much greater difficulty when I look at UK politics and see people with no experience in a field appointed to oversee it, I'd far rather the Surgeon General or head of the Royal College of Nursing had some say on the running of the NHS rather than letting a complete and utter Hunt of a career politician from Charterhouse and Oxford screw over our medical system.
Did you miss recent events where our elected government ignored EU regulations on allowing the import of cheap Chinese steel and instead conspired with the Chinese to allow them to get around the EU tariff system by alloying a small part of Boron and Copper into the steel so that it was no longer plain steel, despite the potentially catastrophic failures you can get in structural steel welds if there are greater than 5ppm Boron. Our last steel mills close, 3 towns devastated and 90,000 people out of work but let it never be said our politicians can't cut a deal with the Chinese when they want to, I just have to question who it benefits?
If I've not made it clear enough, I believe many more of our politicians are corrupt, incompetent or both than their EU counterparts so have no faith that any trade negotiations we undertake will be anything other than a complete clusterfeck that sees the common man worse off yet again whilst the politicans and their pals profit.
Not sure what you are talking about there at all. I don't believe the EU were in any way impinging on my democratic rights, my only problem with our political establishment is that the politicians in the UK are now so poor or corrupt that there's no real alternative left to vote for. This whole referendum was only a political game to ensure Cameron kept UKIP at bay and appeased the right wing of his own party, they stupidly never expected to lose and have now left us in a complete mess and with no plans in sight we could spend a number of years in this state of limbo before things change, quite possibly for the worse.
I had democratic rights within the EU, I elected my local MEP on the basis of his personal manifesto within Europe and trust he would do as good a job for me in Brussels as my local MP does in Westminster although I've not much faith in either direction really. I personally sit in a number of CEN committees related to my specialist area of the Enigneering industry that sets the rules that ensures our infrastructure is safe and efficient. My voice within that democracy is in danger of being removed along with my European Citizenship, my democratic rights are in danger of being taken away by this ridiculous referendum and I will fight for any last hope we may have to preserve them. I was the first English graduate in Civil Engineering from Grenoble University as part of the ERASMUS scheme where I gained the specialisations that have guided my career, a career that has taken me to over 60 countries working for German, French and English multinationals but this stupid vote has meant that my grandchildren are unlikely to be offered the educational opportunity I had and would probably struggle to win a position with Vinci or Bouygues over a similarly qualified EU citizen.
Apparently it's not scheduled until May 2020.
I know the Labour and the Lib Dems had a spike in membership since the referendum so I'm not sure how it'd go even if it was held tomorrow.
Blair is just a traitor. He fooled me to with his moderate left wing talks and is now collecting his bribe speaching and advising the people he worked for all along. But still one election result can change policies .
If it's in the EU it's not likely to become a scandal. But there's a pattern of bowing to the big corporations. You might want to read about the weird things happening around the assesment of the dangers of Round-Up and the refusal to prohibit it. A simular thing happened to the poisonous coatings of tin cans for food, so the French decided to forbid it themselves to protect the French. We have Dieselgate of course, those cars were supposed to meet EU-standards, and those standards turned out be wrong also. Maybe it's got something to do with the industry offering a 20-25% discount on a new car to everybody who works for the EU. It's not forbidden to give gifts to EU representatives. Just a few examples, and there are a lot more that you wouldn't be able to find if they were working in the interest of the citizens of the EU.
If you're in the eurozone it's even worse, basically the EU is just handing out tax payers money and pension savings to banks and others in the financial industry. Not just the bailouts, and not the normal general creation of money, but the Greece deal was another bailout masked as support for Greece, which democracy was ignored completely, and there's the QE, which amounts to 3800 euro's per citizen of the eurozone that is handed out to the banks.
That's what the Lisbon treaty was about.
It has nothing to with technocrats, the problem is that those technocrats work isn't the responsability om someone we can vote out. The EU doesn't have a democracy in place, it looks like one superficially because we have elections, but it isn't. The Lisbon treaty was the latest transition of power from the national governments to the EU, and therefore from democracies to a executives without democratic control. It's contents were rejected by both the French and the Dutch in their referenda, but that couldn't stop the EU of course.
Actually, I almost completely missed that.
It's an international trend that politicians are managing expectations of the people within the margins set by corporations intrests. That this is also the case for former well run democracies like the ones in Germany, France, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands has a lot to do with the EU. First because national politicians can't do much in economic policy because of the EU, but the EU is the bribing kind itself. They not only give money to parties, if a PM or a minister is obedient in negotiations with the EU, he or his party friends have a chance of beeing promoted to a much better job for the EU.
No, of course it was a political game too, but there was already the issue of popular support. And not just in the UK, the EU is the most important governing body when it comes to economic matters, so it should have popular support. As removing barriers has so much intrinsic advantages to all, they really had to mess it up bad to have less than 70% support in any member state, but they have it in all of them.
There's not much of a good job for him to do in Brussels. He and his collegues lack the power.
The EU propaganda starts at schools and goes on throug university, and the Erasmus program is part of it. I'm not against exchange students, but a lot of it has no scientific or educational merit and for the universities, their national students and the national taxpayers who pay for it, it has mainly disadvantages. One's personal development doesn't justifie that. It's a program that could have done with a bit of critical thinking, like how this is beneficial for the society which pays for it. It was benificial for the EU's self promotion, and when it comes to that there's always money available.
I can't take you seriously, this is all nonsense. America not a democracy? Guff
What the EU does though is raise the cost of labour in its poorer countries, so the gap isn't so great. It helps those countries develop so they become markets for our expensive products
Even with open borders we still only have 150000 people coming here from the EU, I don't see the problem
I know, but I believe the EU is much more benign than our government.
Any trade deal we make in the future will equally open up public procurement to private enterprise. You think America is going to give us access to its market without being able to compete for NHS spending?
The EU sets standards for 28 nations to follow. It can't work unless is centralises as if it left it to each nation they would race to the bottom to win more capital. I don't think it's a harmful institution
Translation:
Paul Nutall will keep his European Parliament seat caus he gets paid €70k a year to do feck all.
That's actually quite damning for the under 50s in general.
Plenty of time for retirees during the working day to go and vote. Still, the other percentages are pretty bad considering the split in Yes/No votes by age.
Yeebus that is a lot of oldies. Wonder if that'll be the final figures or there'll be other estimates.
On another demographic-based topic, I remember on the morning after there was a chart that showed a negative correlation between the number of foreign-born people in an area with the vote for Leave. However, there's another one I just saw that's probably more illuminating, which instead shows the percentage increase in foreign-born people in an area:
To me it suggests the problem is that people don't feel like they have time to vote. Sure the majority will make time to do it, but when the alternative is not holding elections on days when people work why not do that?
It was a referendum of sellfishness with elderly people voting for something that have no impact on their lives, EU MEPs voting against the EU knowing that by the time the UK leaves the EU they would still be able to make the years and get that flashy pensions and Boris who was literally banking on losing the referendum. I pity the people who will now have to suffer the consequences of such decision. Its ridiculous that people who come from the elite/business industry would con the British people in thinking that they stand by their side and not at the side of the business
I agree. Why would anyone vote on a frigging Thursday especially considering the British weather? Does the government rate the elderly people and the freeloaders who spend their days at the pub so much to give them such advantage?