Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Dante]

Unfortunately if we rejoin we will be at the bottom of the heap with loads of conditions and the hardships will not suddenly go away.

A redo as distasteful as it may seem is the only way.

I can't see how a second referendum will happen before a Brexit.

Leavers don't want it, and a sizeable chunk of Remainers don't want it either. That's well over 50% no matter how you spin it.

We have to get to the end of this journey before we start another one. There's simply not enough will to do a u-turn.

 

[Rolandofgilead]

I can't see how a second referendum will happen before a Brexit.

Leavers don't want it, and a sizeable chunk of Remainers don't want it either.

We have to get to the end of this journey before we start another one. There's simply not enough will to do a u-turn.

it's a tough one, i want to remain personally but if it went to a second referendum the country will be in a state of crisis, especially if remain won.

 

[Simbo]

it's a tough one, i want to remain personally but if it went to a second referendum the country will be in a state of crisis, especially if remain won.

Really? I can't wrap my head around the idea people think we won't be an actual state of crisis if we leave.

 

[Rolandofgilead]

Really? I can't wrap my head around the idea people think we won't be an actual state of crisis if we leave.

Sorry i was purely thinking domestically. i think we are seeing a more vocal right wing and with various politicians speaking openly about a second referendum being bad for democracy i can foresee riots and other unpleasantness. Having said that if we leave i can foresee recession and general misery everywhere. I basically think we have put ourselves in a lose/lose situation.

 

[Cal?]

Brexit can't be cancelled or revoked.

There needs to be a Brexit first, then a Brentrance a few years later. The electorate won't accept it any other way.

Let's do a 2nd referendum on rejoining on the same terms 1 second after no deal.

Hopefully the EU accepts that.

 

[Cal?]

I can't see how a second referendum will happen before a Brexit.

Leavers don't want it, and a sizeable chunk of Remainers don't want it either. That's well over 50% no matter how you spin it.

We have to get to the end of this journey before we start another one. There's simply not enough will to do a u-turn.

What?

 

[Dante]

What?

Even amongst those that want to stay a part of the EU, there's not a universal appetite to have a second referendum. There are a lot of people who feel it would undermine British Democracy and set a dangerous precedent if the 2016 result were thrown away and ignored.

 

[Cal?]

Even amongst those that want to stay a part of the EU, there's not a universal appetite to have a second referendum. There are a lot of people who feel it would undermine British Democracy and set a dangerous precedent if the 2016 result were thrown away and ignored.

Nothing is universal, but amongst remainders, it’s pretty clear that a 2nd referendum is much more preferable than crashing out

 

[Coxy]

Even amongst those that want to stay a part of the EU, there's not a universal appetite to have a second referendum. There are a lot of people who feel it would undermine British Democracy and set a dangerous precedent if the 2016 result were thrown away and ignored.

You got stats to back up what you're saying?

 

[Dante]

Nothing is universal, but amongst remainders, it’s pretty clear that a 2nd referendum is much more preferable than crashing out

Yes, but if you take Leavers to be about 50% of the population and then guesstimate that about a quarter of Remainers want to honour the 2016 result, that's 60%+ wanting to stay on the current course.

Crashing out isn't ideal, but plenty feel that a flip-flop in the democratic process would be even less so.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Yes, but if you take Leavers to be about 50% of the population and then guesstimate that about a quarter of Remainers want to honour the 2016 result, that's 60%+ wanting to stay on the current course.

Crashing out isn't ideal, but plenty feel that a flip-flop in the democratic process would be even less so.

There has apparently been a fair bit of polling on this and it's absolutely not clear cut. Unsurprisingly the answer depends on the phrasing of the question. At any rate at no point has 60+% been found to want to stay on the current course.

For messaging purposes it seems clear that your side of the argument is best supported if the question is on a 'second referendum' with exactly the same terms as the first. That doesn't really seem to be what's being proposed though. If folk are instead asked whether there should be a public vote on the final outcome (with remain still an option) then support for your argument drops dramatically. In the second instance more leavers are in support than remainers that oppose.

Of course at this stage the main use for these polls is for agenda'd parties to work out how best to sell their arguments. Turns out that it's basically "respect the first referendum" vs "right to a final say."

 

[Adisa]

 

[Ady87]

At this point I think honouring Brexit will then leave the Brexit party toothless and minimise the risk of them doing anything substantial in a GE. I do think I'll feel an element of schadenfreude watching it all pan out as I'll be able to ride out any impact, which is weird because it contradicts how I usually feel which is that I want to see the lives of everyone improved. I think I've got to this point because it's dragged on for so long!

It's difficult for me to say this because I think I'd rather see Liverpool win the league than have to watch rabid leave voters claiming a victory.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Even amongst those that want to stay a part of the EU, there's not a universal appetite to have a second referendum. There are a lot of people who feel it would undermine British Democracy and set a dangerous precedent if the 2016 result were thrown away and ignored.

This is just what the politicians have been telling us, as part of their agenda.

 

[Kentonio]

From a Remain perspective, as long as it’s not a No Deal Brexit that is forced by the people’s vote, I also think that a second referendum and Leave win would not be the worst thing to happen. It would close the debate shut and us Remainers would have to lump it and look for the positives. This argument rumbling on for years and years giving a forum to Farage, Robinson and co is a disaster.

Doubt it'd close the argument at all. Because whatever version of leave happens its going to require years of future negotiation with the EU and will result in economic slump both immediately and over the longer term. Can't see the debate going away.

 

[Smores]

Hunt saying he'll take DUP and ERG into negotiations. Good lord

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Hunt saying he'll take DUP and ERG into negotiations. Good lord

The negotiations for the withdrawal agreement that will not be renegotiated.

 

[Wibble]

Even amongst those that want to stay a part of the EU, there's not a universal appetite to have a second referendum. There are a lot of people who feel it would undermine British Democracy and set a dangerous precedent if the 2016 result were thrown away and ignored.

There are? I've never met anyone in favor of remain who thinks this.

 

[Honest John]

Hunt saying he'll take DUP and ERG into negotiations. Good lord

It's not that crazy if you think about it. TM negotiated then presented what she'd got only for all and sundry to bin it. Involving the main detractors in the negotiations will either give them ownership of whatever comes out or at least some real understanding of the EU's stance.

 

[Infra-red]

Hunt saying he'll take DUP and ERG into negotiations. Good lord

What negotiations? We are expressly forbidden to attempt any further negotiations re the WA, under the terms of the last A50 extension.

The negotiations are over.

 

[Ian Reus]

There are? I've never met anyone in favor of remain who thinks this.

You've not met the wrong people yet.

 

[golden_blunder]

We voted for a shit sandwich and now we have to eat it.

I reckon we'll need to endure a decade of general hardship, massive deregulation of the financial sector, widening wealth inequality and a breakup of the UK before we come to our senses and rejoin the EU.

Not to mention falling food standards, healthcare privatization and American style health insurance

 

[Steven Seagull]

Healthcare privatisation is already happening and the EU hasn’t saved us from it

 

[Stanley Road]

Healthcare privatisation is already happening and the EU hasn’t saved us from it

Most EU countries have some form of privatization in healthcare. I see NL is top of this list and it's not free. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Europe#Healthcare_rankings

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Most EU countries have some form of privatization in healthcare. I see NL is top of this list and it's not free. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Europe#Healthcare_rankings

How does healthcare work over there then?

Problem is that its an ideological position in the UK for the left.

 

[Maticmaker]

Hunt saying he'll take DUP and ERG into negotiations. Good lord

Yes its a possibility, I can't see any new Tory Party leader going into any possible new negotiations on their own they will need representatives from both wings of the Party and its natural allies. May broke that particular 'do it my way' mould already, and went down in flames on her own, also remember as far as the EU's concerned the withdrawal agreement is done and dusted. Hence if by some miracle the EU decides to renegade on its promises to the 27 other nations and agree to some further negotiations, then there will have to be a joint negotiating team of some sort for the Tories, or its a straight ' No deal'.

At the moment we seem to have a number of options as far as new Tory leader/PM is concerned;

Such as Hunt who wants to renegotiate, presumably everything, but possibly just the withdrawal agreement, but will not sanction a No deal ' outcome;
Such as Gove who it seems also wants to renegotiate, also for the whole thing in one package, withdrawal and future Trade deal, but wants to retain a 'No deal' option;
Such as Boris, who it appears doesn't want to negotiate anything (but might be persuaded) and will just let the default position occur on 31st Oct
And such as Ester who it seems has no intention of trying to talk to the EU at all, she will be putting everything into preparing for a 'no deal' from day one of her appointment, she too sees the default position as 'that's all folks"!
Others in between (the ex-Leader of the House) with a 3-point plan (but we don't know what this is?); such as Hancock who will just 'try his best' and some who have given nothing away so far, such as DR!!

The Tory party is on the brink of extinction unless it sorts Brexit. Labour has done a solid job so far in 'running interference' and preventing Brexit, but now it has challengers in the form Lib Dem's to be the party that in truth represents Remain and could concievably deny a GE victory to the Tories (or indeed Labour). To be successful Labour will have to break with its Leavers, accept they are gone and make a big pitch for the more socialist minded Social Democrats and hollow out the green vote and be prepared to do a deal with the SNP in Scotland and PC in Wales.

Jeremy will then be able to sit there like the leader of the 'A' team, saying " I love it when a plan comes together."

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Yes its a possibility, I can't see any new Tory Party leader going into any possible new negotiations on their own they will need representatives from both wings of the Party and its natural allies. May broke that particular 'do it my way' mould already, and went down in flames on her own, also remember as far as the EU's concerned the withdrawal agreement is done and dusted. Hence if by some miracle the EU decides to renegade on its promises to the 27 other nations and agree to some further negotiations, then there will have to be a joint negotiating team of some sort for the Tories, or its a straight ' No deal'.

At the moment we seem to have a number of options as far as new Tory leader/PM is concerned;

Such as Hunt who wants to renegotiate, presumably everything, but possibly just the withdrawal agreement, but will not sanction a No deal ' outcome;
Such as Gove who it seems also wants to renegotiate, also for the whole thing in one package, withdrawal and future Trade deal, but wants to retain a 'No deal' option;
Such as Boris, who it appears doesn't want to negotiate anything (but might be persuaded) and will just let the default position occur on 31st Oct
And such as Ester who it seems has no intention of trying to talk to the EU at all, she will be putting everything into preparing for a 'no deal' from day one of her appointment, she too sees the default position as 'that's all folks"!
Others in between (the ex-Leader of the House) with a 3-point plan (but we don't know what this is?); such as Hancock who will just 'try his best' and some who have given nothing away so far, such as DR!!

The Tory party is on the brink of extinction unless it sorts Brexit. Labour has done a solid job so far in 'running interference' and preventing Brexit, but now it has challengers in the form Lib Dem's to be the party that in truth represents Remain and could concievably deny a GE victory to the Tories (or indeed Labour). To be successful Labour will have to break with its Leavers, accept they are gone and make a big pitch for the more socialist minded Social Democrats and hollow out the green vote and be prepared to do a deal with the SNP in Scotland and PC in Wales.

Jeremy will then be able to sit there like the leader of the 'A' team, saying " I love it when a plan comes together."

I think you've just summarised why the UK will leave with no deal in October.
The WA isn't May's deal as it's called - it's how to leave the EU and embark on the second stage of negotiations for the aftermath of leaving.
Problem is very few people in the UK including parliament or the public seem to understand this.

 

[711]

Even amongst those that want to stay a part of the EU, there's not a universal appetite to have a second referendum. There are a lot of people who feel it would undermine British Democracy and set a dangerous precedent if the 2016 result were thrown away and ignored.

I've had a lot of social contact today and several people held this view. I find it interesting that some say they haven't heard it before, it implies a quite restricted social circle and lack of media variety.

Unfortunately I think McDonnell and Corbyn have come round to the idea of a second referendum, sort of, too late and we're fecked. No doubt they knew that though.

 

[Ixion]

The first referendum was a farce anyway. No one even knew what Brexit meant, the vote Leave website said we'd stay in the Single Market. I wouldn't give a shit about re-running it with the understanding it should have had the first time through.

 

[Stanley Road]

How does healthcare work over there then?

Problem is that its an ideological position in the UK for the left.

I pay about 180EU per month health insurance, this is mandatory. 7.5% is also stolen from your salary each month for National Health Insurance. All bills are covered by this pot but there is around 375 per year excess payment if you use the health service. At the end of the day, the sick and poor get punished still but the service is amazing. Even if you are on the dole like myself, you still have to pay health insurance each month.

 

[finneh]

The first referendum was a farce anyway. No one even knew what Brexit meant, the vote Leave website said we'd stay in the Single Market. I wouldn't give a shit about re-running it with the understanding it should have had the first time through.

Lets be honest - a huge portion of the electorate are pretty ignorant in every election on every side*. Most people vote on a mixture of gut instinct, vague ideology, who their friends/family vote for, the charisma of the leader and who they think will give them the biggest free lunch. If we re-ran every vote due to the ignorance of the electorate then we'd have a vote every single week. Half of my family are still voting Labour because of Margaret Thatcher who hasn't been alive for 6 years and hasn't been in office for 29 years. They literally couldn't name a single specific policy.

The fact that people still vote Conservative for lower taxation, even though tax as a % of GDP has reached an almost post war high under their stewardship is evidence of this. Likewise the fact that anyone can vote to make Corbyn, Abbott, Thornberry & McDonald the four most powerful people in the country when they are patently and objectively dangerously unfit to govern.

I voted Brexit for a number of reasons but a key one was ideology. As a proponent of Libertarian free market tiny government economics it would be impossible to achieve as close to a realistic modern day Friedman-esque society in which taxes are substantially lower, all tariffs are abolished, the public sector is vastly reduced and more fundamentally the state isn't progressively destroying personal freedoms via legalised theft; without leaving the EU. However we're also not going to implement a manifesto anything like what I'd like to see in my lifetime irrespective or Brexit, so some people may think my logic for voting was flawed.

I've no doubt for every stupid person voting to leave merely because of a 9 digit number on the side of a bus, there was another stupid person voting remain merely because they thought Osborne would double down on austerity the day after the vote. For every stupid person voting leave believing it'd be simple and we'd have all the current benefits but with greater control over immigration and law making, there was another stupid person who did no research and voted remain simply because of a government funded leaflet posted through their door. For every aged leaver wishing for times gone by, there was a naive remainer believing they couldn't go on holiday to Spain if they voted leave.

*Myself included!

 

[Cheesy]

Lets be honest - a huge portion of the electorate are pretty ignorant in every election on every side*. Most people vote on a mixture of gut instinct, vague ideology, who their friends/family vote for, the charisma of the leader and who they think will give them the biggest free lunch. If we re-ran every vote due to the ignorance of the electorate then we'd have a vote every single week. Half of my family are still voting Labour because of Margaret Thatcher who hasn't been alive for 6 years and hasn't been in office for 29 years. They literally couldn't name a single specific policy.

The fact that people still vote Conservative for lower taxation, even though tax as a % of GDP has reached an almost post war high under their stewardship is evidence of this. Likewise the fact that anyone can vote to make Corbyn, Abbott, Thornberry & McDonald the four most powerful people in the country when they are patently and objectively dangerously unfit to govern.

I voted Brexit for a number of reasons but a key one was ideology. As a proponent of Libertarian free market tiny government economics it would be impossible to achieve as close to a realistic modern day Friedman-esque society in which taxes are substantially lower, all tariffs are abolished, the public sector is vastly reduced and more fundamentally the state isn't progressively destroying personal freedoms via legalised theft; without leaving the EU. However we're also not going to implement a manifesto anything like what I'd like to see in my lifetime irrespective or Brexit, so some people may think my logic for voting was flawed.

I've no doubt for every stupid person voting to leave merely because of a 9 digit number on the side of a bus, there was another stupid person voting remain merely because they thought Osborne would double down on austerity the day after the vote. For every stupid person voting leave believing it'd be simple and we'd have all the current benefits but with greater control over immigration and law making, there was another stupid person who did no research and voted remain simply because of a government funded leaflet posted through their door. For every aged leaver wishing for times gone by, there was a naive remainer believing they couldn't go on holiday to Spain if they voted leave.

This is a fairly shite defence though - a stupid person who votes for something harmful and bad is objectively doing something worse than someone uninformed who votes for something mundane and not harmful. The stupidity of Brexit shouldn't be excused by the fact that not everyone who voted Remain was perfectly informed. Especially now considering it's either a devastating No Deal or Remain - any hopes of a sensible, reasonable compromise appears to be off the table.

 

[Maticmaker]

I think you've just summarised why the UK will leave with no deal in October.
The WA isn't May's deal as it's called - it's how to leave the EU and embark on the second stage of negotiations for the aftermath of leaving.
Problem is very few people in the UK including parliament or the public seem to understand this.

Yes, I think you are right. The time to revoke A50, (which for Remain was the only way out) was the 29th March. I honestly believed May would go down as a hero to 'remainers' by revoking A50 at the last minute, thereby ensuring her legacy (with at least half the country) as she then fell on her sword. However May clung on to some remote idea that, with their backs to the wall everyone would not want a 'no deal' and so then eventually, holding their noses they would accept the WA; but alas for Theresa, she doesn't know the British as well as she thought and her parliamentary colleagues knew them too well. There is no way the WA agreement in its present form will be accepted, even if it means a no deal exit and for any anyone fondling thinking a second referendum would sort this out the writing was on the wall.

The EU has been in control almost from day one and they have won, but its a hollow victory in many respects because the ship (to which many business in the other 27 nations are tied into) is heading for the rocks, with all hands onboard... and in true British tradition "the band played on"!

As Farage has demonstrated in the EU elections, he and his Brexit party are now the 'kingmakers' for the next GE.

 

[Mark Pawelek]

This is a fairly shite defence though - a stupid person who votes for something harmful and bad is objectively doing something worse than someone uninformed who votes for something mundane and not harmful. The stupidity of Brexit shouldn't be excused by the fact that not everyone who voted Remain was perfectly informed. Especially now considering it's either a devastating No Deal or Remain - any hopes of a sensible, reasonable compromise appears to be off the table.

I told the remainers I wanted UK democracy back but they keep changing the subject by telling me I'm "racist", or "stupid". Remainers had nearly 45 years to reform EU by introducing democratic decision making and accountability. They're not even interested in talking about it. EU will go the way of old European Empires, Austro-Hungarian Empire in particular. Of course nationalism killed it, but nationalism can be understood as a proxy for democratic desire. In both cases: "we don't want to be ruled by alien elites who show us contempt" and never take our views into account.

 

[Smores]

It's not that crazy if you think about it. TM negotiated then presented what she'd got only for all and sundry to bin it. Involving the main detractors in the negotiations will either give them ownership of whatever comes out or at least some real understanding of the EU's stance.

I mean if you think about it...it really is. The ERG and DUP are not main parties they do not represent the UK they're radical fringe elements, the way for them to input is via westminster and they've already made their desires very clear.

Hunt is saying a non-party and a party of 10 should be directly represented in EU discussions but the opposition party of 249 MPs can't be because they disagree with us. Democracy eh

 

[Mark Pawelek]

I mean if you think about it...it really is. The ERG and DUP are not main parties they do not represent the UK they're radical fringe elements, the way for them to input is via westminster and they've already made their desires very clear.

Hunt is saying a non-party and a party of 10 should be directly represented in EU discussions but the opposition party of 249 MPs can't be because they disagree with us. Democracy eh

Changing the topic again, and introducing a Nirvana fallacy. Because (1) the topic of conversation is the EU democracy, not UK. (2) Because the perfect or unobtainable, should not be the enemy of the possible.

What do you plan on doing to introduce better democratic decision making into the EU. Nothing? If nothing then just admit it.

 

[finneh]

This is a fairly shite defence though - a stupid person who votes for something harmful and bad is objectively doing something worse than someone uninformed who votes for something mundane and not harmful. The stupidity of Brexit shouldn't be excused by the fact that not everyone who voted Remain was perfectly informed. Especially now considering it's either a devastating No Deal or Remain - any hopes of a sensible, reasonable compromise appears to be off the table.

A government that coerces the electorate to vote with them through empty threats of taking their hard earned money or worse is far more dangerous than one who promise rainbows and puppy dogs tails. Firstly because the latter is easily disproved through a small amount of research and secondly because the electorate hear tales of a fairytale land at every election; whether that be the golden land of nationalisation, tax & spend politics on one side or the golden land of deregulation, low taxes and free markets on the other.

Plus your argument essentially says you should always vote for the status quo. I'd say anyone voting for Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry would be voting for a dangerously inadequate government and are objectively economically (as well as on security) braindead irrespective of your political leanings.

Given the decent economic situation the country is currently in (ignoring Brexit) would you agree then that anyone voting Labour is inexcusable?

 

[sullydnl]

So let's say the seemingly likely no deal brexit comes to pass.

I would have thought that the UK then absolutely needs to agree some sort of trade deal with the EU to stave off a crippling economic catastrophe. At which point the EU can demand the same or similar concessions from the UK on issues like the NI border as they currently require?

So what's the hard brexiteers' plan once they get a no deal brexit? Do they intend to abandon the idea of getting a trade deal with the EU altogether? Otherwise as far as I can see all the issues hard brexiters have with the current UK/EU negotiations will still be present in the next set of UK/EU negotiations, except the UK will be in a much worse position in terms of leverage.

 

[Abizzz]

People still acting as if a rational intelligent person had any trouble to decide on this matter


3 Years of British farce haven't been enough yet, I guess.

 

[Maticmaker]

So let's say the seemingly likely no deal brexit comes to pass.

I would have thought that the UK then absolutely needs to agree some sort of trade deal with the EU to stave off a crippling economic catastrophe. At which point the EU can demand the same or similar concessions from the UK on issues like the NI border as they currently require?

So what's the hard brexiteers' plan once they get a no deal brexit? Do they intend to abandon the idea of getting a trade deal with the EU altogether? Otherwise as far as I can see all the issues hard brexiters have with the current UK/EU negotiations will still be present in the next set of UK/EU negotiations, except the UK will be in a much worse position in terms of leverage.

Actually I don't think it will. Its true the comfort zone for the UK surrounding being 'in' the EU will have gone and that will have repercussions of itself. The UK will however have £39B to hand over, (which it will have to do, maybe have to pay even more than this sum for the 'ideal trade deal' ) but this time some of the 'strings' will be able to be attached by the UK, which they couldn't do before. The EU could not without tearing itself apart make any further concessions whilst the UK was part of the Union, but now proper negotiations can take place. There will of course be some more 'sabre-rattling' (both sides) about the NI/Eire border and this issue cannot be ignored because of the GFA, but again both sides will have a freedom they didn't have before especially, if Stormont is back up and running and there is a legitimate voice speaking for the whole of the province, which the last poll (EU) seems to suggest the Alliance party is making some headway. Indeed of all the new and smaller parties making a breakthrough in these EU elections, the advances of Alliance Party in NI may be the one that last longest and has most long lasting effect. There could even be an enormous boost to peace, if both sides could decided their joint economic future together, through their own Government?

Things will change once the UK is out of the EU, it will not be easy, but then again when did our politicians ever do easy?