The original plan, before the UK decided to linger, was to share some of the UK's seats among the remaining members but overall there would be fewer MEPs. What happens now I don't know but there is a chance the UK MEP's never take their seats in the new parliament in July if they agree a deal beforehand or they probably crash out in October with no deal before the serious business of the new EU parliament takes place and the new EU commission starts in November.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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The original plan, before the UK decided to linger, was to share some of the UK's seats among the remaining members but overall there would be fewer MEPs. What happens now I don't know but there is a chance the UK MEP's never take their seats in the new parliament in July if they agree a deal beforehand or they probably crash out in October with no deal before the serious business of the new EU parliament takes place and the new EU commission starts in November.
Whether they take their seats or not, just them being elected is hugely disruptive, as it prevents the seats being redistributed among the remaining states. Obv worse if they do take their seats and then leave, or have the opportunity to be obstructionist, in the case of UKIP or Brexit Party MEPs.
that brexit vote is very different from other projections - curious as to why (eg is it weighted for voting intention as I expect a low turnout but the more passionate brexit and more passionate remain parties turn out to be proportionally higher)
Andrew McNeil somewhat exasperated with Labour today as he pointed out this is the first time he has ever known a party produce a manifesto and then refuse to provide anyone to discuss it.
If I'm reading it right Labour policy is now to achieve Brexit on their terms, and if they are unable to do so then, and only then, will they consider the 'option' of a referendum on any other terms. They are a Brexit party and their preferred choice is clearly not to have any second vote on the issue.
I've said before that I blame Brexit on the people who voted Conservative or Labour in the last general election and received dog's abuse for saying so, so I'll say again, if you vote Conservative or Labour in the Euro election now you will be voting for Brexit. Two weeks to decide.
If I'm reading it right Labour policy is now to achieve Brexit on their terms, and if they are unable to do so then, and only then, will they consider the 'option' of a referendum on any other terms. They are a Brexit party and their preferred choice is clearly not to have any second vote on the issue.
I've said before that I blame Brexit on the people who voted Conservative or Labour in the last general election and received dog's abuse for saying so, so I'll say again, if you vote Conservative or Labour in the Euro election now you will be voting for Brexit. Two weeks to decide.
Believe EU have selected October 31 because by then they will know for sure whether the UK could ever hope to ratify the withdrawal agreement, which seems unlikely, and the serious EU business will not take place until the UK have left.
Regarding seats:
Saw this
UK participation in the EP elections means that the envisaged reallocation of UK MEPs may be deferred. EU legislation reallocates 27 of the UK’s MEPs to 14 other Member States. This reallocation will still take place when the UK leaves the EU, meaning that MEPs for these reallocated seats will be ‘elected’ but will remain in limbo – unable to take up their seats until the UK and its MEPs leave.
I reluctantly voted labour at the last election as I thought then and still think now it was that or a huge conservative majority. If that had happened we would be out of the EU by now. So I think you are wrong in that analysis. I won't vote Labour in the EU election though unless they make it clear there will be a second referendum.
That makes sense I admit. I'm not sure how many of those who voted Labour at the time worked that out as well as you, but I am sure they will all say they did now!
Vote Liberal or Green for me.
In terms of who you should vote for depending on your Brexit position -
Brexit Party/UKIP - hard leave
Tory - leave with bad deal at any cost
Labour - leave just for the sake of it
Lib Dems - boring remain
Greens - lefty remain
Change - I don't understand what's going on
Brexit Party/UKIP - hard leave
Tory - leave with bad deal at any cost
Labour - leave just for the sake of it
Lib Dems - boring remain
Greens - lefty remain
Change - I don't understand what's going on
Vote in what? The EU elections?
Agree with this.
The issue we have with "Brexit" now is mainly about no one wanting to admit the truth.
Country voted in 2016 to leave, essentially sold on getting the economic benefits of the EU without paying contributions or having political interference or costs.
May Tory government never tried to implement that. Instead cooking up what amounts to an inferior version of "remaining".
To actually acheive "Brexit" along the lines of the 2016 vote would be very difficult. Mainly because it would undermine the entire EU. Other countries would leave as well if possible to just have an FTA and little other integration or cost. People running the EU would never agree such a deal because of that. Even if we try leave WTO we're looking at a protracted economic war of attrition.
Best solution now is to revoke article 50, and debate the above at a general.
SNP - If you are lucky enough to live where they are standing
It was fairly obvious that in the General election a vote for either Lib Dem or Green to make a point over Brexit would also have been a wasted vote in that it would have allowed the tories to take the majority they sought to force their version of Brexit through. The Euros are different and which party people are better voting for to hope to minimise the number of Tory and Brexit Party seats will depend on the region and will involve some fairly deep analysis of the D'Hondt proportional representation. To have a hope of a second referendum and overturning Brexit we must try to ensure that the greens, lib dems and chuk all manage to pick up at least one or hopefully two seats each whilst UKIP and Farage go some way to divide their own vote and reduce their representation with the tories suffering losses and labour probably staying pretty much where they were if they are still sitting on the fence.
That said I've still not got a clue where to put my cross at the end of the month as the SE area looks like nothing much will change, I suspect all 4 UKIP seats will pass over to Brexit but hope they might divide the vote a bit and lose one of them and think the tories may lose one of their 3 seats. It's unlikely that the greens or lib dems would get enough to increase from 1 to 2 seats though and Chuk will most likely steal that chance and take the seat the tories lose. If labour would come out and side with a 2nd referendum then I might still consider them in the hope they could pick up a 4th seat removing one from UKIP/Brexit but otherwise it will either be Green or Libdem for me to ensure their seat and hope they can pick up a spare if the hard right do split their votes.
I can understand tactical voting but personally I prefer to vote for who I think is most right on the biggest issues, which in this election will be the Liberals, I think.
Despite it being abundantly clear that Labour is a leave party, why are so many still trying to convince themselves that voting Labour somehow means that we are more likely to remain?
It sends a message.
What message?
This, or at least Corbyn has always been a leaver, but a majority of the base and MPs arn't.
Better to vote Liberal in these elections if you're either against the "deal" or "no deal".
Also polling for these election will be garbage, turnout was only 35% last time so heavily skewed towards those with strong leave EU views. Surely will be 60%+ this time. Most regular people don't normally vote in EU elections. Pollsters are pinning the tale on the donkey trying to figure a representative sample for these elections.
That's a very good point. Did anyone see the lib dem revival coming?
It is. As for the liberals I didn't see anyone forecast their results, although I wondered why they weren't doing better in the polls and still do. I think a lot will depend on their new leader now, whilst there doesn't seem to be anyone that's promising one can but hope being in the spotlight will make a difference. Whoever it should be a bit more inspiring than Cable at any rate.
This bloody woman is still trying to pass her deal. Macron was right.
One one hand, I admire the way he openly ridicules our intelligence.
You'd think it'd be illegal to go into an election without a published manifesto...
On the plus side I just bet my sister a tenner they’d win the European elections this month, so that’s an easy tenner.
Would you look at that -NOT the eu election
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Fairly certain the polls will turn out to be very wrong..., impossible for pollsters to know what a the correct sample is for this election, given likely turnout change and a new party. Quite possibly being used as propaganda to support the "deal".
His book 'National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy' (see profile pic) is well worth a read.
Any polls for Peterborough by election yet... Must admit I was surprised to see Mike greene rather than farrage as the brexit party candidate.
How on Earth is it not?
Only Libs and Fatage doing well out of this brexit fiasco.
Labour are I’d say. The Tory vote is split.
In absolute terms Labour are suffering. Zero sum game they’re benefitting.
I think labours big problem comes ironically enough if they force the ge they want
At that point they actually have to put in place some firm policy's
Is their policy to have a second referendum or not... It can't be a 2nd referendum remains an option to stop a damaging Tory brexit.
It has to be a clear this is our brexit plan and it does / does not involve a public vote (be that initially or confirmatiory)
And at that point the polls probably move... But more importantly the party probably implodes
So even if we remain, we are having most our MEPs represented by the Brexit Party.
How does that make anything better for the future relationship with the EU?
How does that make anything better for the future relationship with the EU?
Let's be honest I think we are getting to the point where if there was a vote in the whole EU I think they would say just get rid of the UK... They clearly don't believe in the EU project and they are more trouble than they are worth
Electing a bunch of farrage clones who bang in about bongo bongo lands and that if it wasn't for us you would all be speaking German is certainly not condusive to a collaborative future relationship
That said I do wonder how powerful the anti EU block of meps might be in the next parliament as there is certainly likley to be an element of anti EU MP's from France Spain Austria, eastern Europe, Italy , Greece... Would be ironic if the EU parliament it's self ended up as an anti EU institution (and that we choose to leave at exactly the most likley time to be able to introduce reforms to streamline)
But yeah farrage, a-reese-mogg, widdecombe certainly don't represent me and my views though clearly they represent enough peoples as all seem likley to be on the EU gravey train as they attempt to derail it
Whilst they are at it make it a legal obligation to fulfill manifesto commitments as well?
Marr taking Farage apart on his show now 