Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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Was just about to post that. Basically - zombies are coming, run.
if only they weren't
I seem to remember you making some erudite posts about finance. Which begs the question of what you meant by the one I quoted. Or does anything go when you're bashing Brexit?
I thought I'd try the simpler approach - of course there's not a direct correlation but anything more complicated seems to confuse Brexiters.
Although if the Uk were completely self-sufficient the pain maybe minimal.
Previous prediction was the pound would fall below €1.20 if Leave won - check
If Article 50 is invoked and the whole process of divorce is completed including non-acceptance of free movement of persons then I predict the average person in the UK will be 20% worse off than prior to Brexit - this may take a few years to prove.
Everything now depends on the next 2 years or so as to the degree of pain to be felt by the average UK resident
There aren't spiders big enough for you fatty
My mum said I was just big boned
I think it's less companies moving headquarters out than how many people they move, and we won't know the answer to that until the exit is complete and we have a clearer picture. Plenty of businesses have a registered hq in the UK with a barebones business there. Every person who goes is one less taxpayer and one less contributor to that business in the UK. I know for a fact one of those who has come out in the press saying they're not changing plans is looking at how many people to move and that's only the start.
And doesn't he just love saying that, with the smug little grin all over his face.
This needs sorting either way asap, and if we're 100 % out then whoever is in charge needs to start putting a far more positive spin on things, even if said words are bull sh*t. Whether it's coming or not we will just talk overselves into the abyss if we're not careful
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Proof, if it were needed, that direct democracy is stupid.
The masses are asses. They're not fit to vote on matters as complex or important as this. A 12 point drop, ffs.
This didn't half make me think of 1984.
It works fine for Switzerland.
No, the polls were wrong before the referendum too. That's why there was a vote and not an opinion poll, and there was nothing complex about the matter, it was a simpe question that everybody understood. The consequences might be complex and difficult to predict, but members of parliament are not equipped for that either.
I came across this video, didn't check too far back to see if it was already posted here. Yes it's full of generalizations, stereotypes, insults and presented by an unpleasent demagogue, so I thought it was very well suited to this topic with al the views and opinions about pro Brexit voters. And it makes some good points, especially with a lot of non-voters demonstrating today.
I'm not really sure how that is proof of anything? It only adds up to 85% for a start. So who are the missing 15% voting for? And with all the venom directed towards Brexit voters since the referendum, and the negative way they have been painted in the media etc, I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are numerous voters now saying they would vote to remain, when in fact they may not. The polls were wrong before the referendum, so I wouldn't pay any attention to them now.
Graham Brady said on Any Questions that New Zealand has offered to lend us a team of trade negotiators that struck their trade deal with China. No doubt they are looking to strengthen their trading position with us also.
Bit weird, but we're going need all the help we can get tbf. Doubt we'll have any fully in place in two years.
If you really want an answer to this, this would be mine. I feel like it's a GCSE answer, so I appreciate this is a bit of a joke.
It's a great question, and not a problem unique to the UK.
America, for example, has low wages and still has countless jobs going to Mexico where the wage is much much lower still.
We live in a global world now, where tariffs are next to 0. Is it cheaper to get steel from China or from the UK? Is it cheaper to build a laptop in Taiwan or the UK? It's going to be very hard to turn the world back from this, because that's not what the businesses want to do.
So what does the UK do well in? The service industry! According to some figures which I just read on wikipedia, the service industry dominates the UK economy, and "contributes around 77.8% of GDP". That doesn't really tell us anything when a London banker is grouped with a coffee barista. But anyway, kicking this sector in the nuts would basically do a hell of a lot of damage. So the question is, is this sector EU dependant? Broadly, Yes.
But the best thing about the service industry? You can't really outsource it to China. China aren't going to cook you a pizza. China aren't going to sell your house. China aren't going to help you with the transport from Italy or help you source car parts that you need right this second... and so on. Hopefully it is similar with the financial sector - although I don't profess to have a clue.
Instead, low paid workers come to Britain looking for work. They also come to Germany, Norway, etc, but they do come to Britain. The good news is that the UK doesn't pay for these workers childhoods, and if they leave again, won't pay for their pensions. The bad news is the workers might be sending money out of the UK economy and back to their home countries.
So what can we do give people more money?
1) Lower the cost of housing. Think of it in terms of rent. If a young worker is paying £550 a month instead of £750 a month, he's had a £10 per day pay rise. Of course home owners would suffer if the housing price drops, so instead you just need to keep them steady over a long period of time. Basically, we need to build more houses! Sure, build them in ecologically friendly ways. Build garden cities or build or brownfield cites, but for god sake build them.
2) Create jobs. More jobs means more competition for workers giving more money for workers.
3) Lower the cost of products. See above. A strong pound helps a bit.
But none of that stops people coming in from foreign countries, lowering wages.
So honestly, what would I do if I was president of the UK?
Create a "National Persons" tax. The idea of this would be similar to that of National Insurance, but unlike National Insurance it would be compulsory for everyone. It wouldn't give you any benefits, and it wouldn't be repaid when you leave the country. I have no idea if this would be legal - but let's go with it.
As a person entering the UK workforce for the first time, whether that's because you're 18 years old and have got a full time job, or are 23 and just left uni, or are entering the UK from Europe, you have the "National Persons" tax to pay. This is a total tax to pay over your life time.
Let's call it a £5,000/£10,000 tax. Under 25's would pay 5% whilst over 25's would pay 10%... on monies after the personal allowance, just like income tax. Once you've paid it off though, (once you've earned the taxable £100k/£200k), you no longer pay it (this specific tax).
The idea of this would be the make it slightly less worthwhile to move to the UK. A 30 year old UK person will have probably already paid off the "National Persons Tax", so will get an effective 10% boost in wages. But someone entering the UK Jobs market for the first time will have to pay the tax, so effectively be earning 10% less.
Obviously the idea would be to reduce other taxes as a result of introducing this.
Edit: Other forms of tax would still have to stick around, but could be slightly reduced.
Edit 2: National Insurance would also stick around
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It would be nice to think you only pay £10k in tax over your entire lifetime, but I paid a lot more than that last year alone. It might create a bit of a dent in public finances!
I belive its just that tax, income tax would still be around
Ah ok. Losing NI would still create a black hole though.
That wouldn't be the ONLY tax, don't get me wrong. Just a new tax.
Reduce income tax by 6%. Introduce a new "National Persons Tax", increasing most peoples tax by 10%.
So in the short term the budget gets an extra 4% per person, but in the long term people save money.
I'm sure those numbers don't work, but you get the idea.
National Insurance would also stick around. We still need that too.
I only bring NI up because it has similarities.
maybe we could get a free movement deal with new zealand, id love to move there
Wouldn't it be a regressive tax on our own poor though too? If it's just levied on foreigners it would be illegal.
Plus, given ppl would pay their whole NP tax in a few years, the 'extra' four percentage points of income doesn't hold up. The vast majority would just be paying greatly reduced income tax, whacking the government's tax revenue.
Apparently £10k has been raised through crowdfunding to support some QCs making a legal challenge to Brexit.
EDIT: Link added.
http://www.legalcheek.com/2016/06/crowd-justice-to-the-rescue/
EDIT: Link added.
http://www.legalcheek.com/2016/06/crowd-justice-to-the-rescue/
maybe we could get a free movement deal with new zealand, id love to move there
There was an article in the Guardian yesterday about a small place in NZ with too many jobs and to few people, get out there
Yes, it would be a regressive tax on the poor. You'd definitely need to combine it with even more progressive taxes elsewhere. For example, to introduce this, the income tax of the low earners might be reduced, whilst the 40% income tax band would be left exactly where it is.
You'd have to be very careful with how this was done. It's definitely an idea I haven't thought through properly - all my numbers are just examples - but I still think it could be a useful tool if done properly.
So yeah, I think the idea is good, if done properly. If we think of a UK where this has been introduced for 10+ years...
Young people would take the biggest hit (as they would be the ones paying the tax, most older people will have paid it), which will mean they will struggle even more to buy a house - so young people will definitely need the tax discount at the start.
But it also means, once you have paid off that £10k National Persons tax, your average person will start having more money to play with. Once you've paid off the "National Persons tax" you've received that 10% pay rise. A person from outside the UK, being paid the exact same wage as you, will be really getting paid 10% less. If he is happy to earn 10% less to undercut you, he'd actually be earning 20% less (numbers are approx).
For each new generation, the young people would take the hit. But the £10k tax is an investment into the future. Once paid, it's done.
It's a regressive tax that will hit the poor hardest, to try and safeguard the future of the poor in this country. It would need to be introduced alongside tax breaks elsewhere. But once paid, a person from this country would have a 10% advantage over someone who is not.
Illegal? Maybe. Maybe not. Immoral? Maybe. Prone to problems? Yes.
But I think a very useful tool if done right
Sorry, I'm not just trying to kybosh the idea. The complexity of implementing it would also be a drag on any perceived benefits.Saddling young people with an additional tax burden when they leave uni massively in debt is not great tbh, especially at a time of higher youth unemployment.
Great news
Yeah, maybe it can be done in a way that it actually helps young people.
Saddling young people with an additional tax burden when they leave uni massively in debt is not great tbh, especially at a time of higher youth unemployment.
Say, reduce the 20% income tax by 5%, and introduce the "National Persons Tax", at the following rates:
0% for 0-18 yo
3% for 18-25 yo
5% for 25-30 yo
10% for 30-40 yo.
So low earning under 30 year olds aren't paying anymore than they do now.
Maybe it should be a 20k "National Persons Tax". Not sure. Someone earning 20k a year will pay approx 2k a year income tax at current rates. So a 20k "NPT" would take 10 years to pay off for a low Earner if all their income tax went on that instead.
But if they are going through the 3%, 5% 10% tax bands and only earning 20k a year, they'd only be paying that off by the time they reached 40.
Who knows
Can't pay, won't pay.
So on the second referendum thing, a straight re-run would be dumb but maybe one down the line on joining the EEA (with free movement allowed) would be a goer:
Go on...
How come?
Just over 50% of voters voted to stop free movement, on the other side voters wanted to be a part of Europe and be a big part of evolving the EU.
Neither are possible by joining the EEA, from the voting situation it's a no win.
The vote was won on immigration. If we end up leaving the Union and then join the EEA we are basically rejoining the club only giving up any semblance of power within it. Firstly, how could it be sold to the 52% that voted out on the idea of 'border control' and secondly, how incredibly stupid would it be?
That's why I posted the poll along with it, the results are for Leave voters only.