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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-19-1970_en.htm

Statement by President Juncker on the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union at the European Parliament's plenary session
Brussels, 3 April 2019

President Tajani,

Honourable Members of this House,



The developments in Westminster over the past days have convinced me of what I already knew. The best way forward is the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement. It has already been agreed by the Government of the United Kingdom, endorsed by this House as well as by the European Council.

In its decision 10 days ago, the European Council paved the way for an extension of the Article 50 negotiation period until the 22 May – on the condition the Withdrawal Agreement was approved by the House of Commons by 29 March. This was not the case.

In light of Prime Minister May's statement last night, I believe we now have a few more days. If the United Kingdom is in a position to approve the Withdrawal Agreement with a sustainable majority by 12 April, the European Union should be prepared to accept a delay until 22 May.

But 12 April is the ultimate deadline for the approval of the Withdrawal Agreement by the House of Commons. If it has not done so by then, no further short extension will be possible. After 12 April, we risk jeopardising the European Parliament elections, and so threaten the functioning of the European Union.

The Withdrawal Agreement is and has always been a compromise. A fair compromise in which both sides obtained some but not all of what they sought. It is the kind of compromise through which the European Union was built. The kind of compromise that enables the European project to advance. The kind of compromise we need at the moment.

Much of the debate in the House of Commons has related to the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom. The European Union stands ready to add flexibility to the Political Declaration, to pave the way for a close economic partnership between the European Union and the United Kingdom in the future.

We stand ready to refer to a range of options, from a free trade agreement, to customs arrangements, to a Customs Union all the way to the European Economic Area. The openness we have shown from the start could be laid out, in purest clarity.

On the EU side, we stand ready to launch the talks and negotiations on the future partnership as soon as the Withdrawal Agreement is signed. Before the ink is dry. The Commission's negotiating team is in place. Michel Barnier, our Chief Negotiator, is ready. I would expect the same level of readiness on the United Kingdom side.

Whether this happens or not depends on the United Kingdom. The European Council gave the United Kingdom the time and the space to decide.

Yet I believe that a “no deal” at midnight on the 12 April is now a very likely scenario. It is not the outcome I want. But it is an outcome for which I have made sure the European Union is ready.

We have been preparing since December 2017. We have always known that the logic of Article 50 makes a “no-deal” the default outcome. We have long been aware of the balance of power in the House of Commons.

In that time, the Commission has published 91 preparedness notices, 32 non-legislative acts, 19 legislative proposals and 3 Communications. We have visited all 27 Member States to support their preparations. We have held 72 seminars with the Member States.

The measures we and the Member States have taken will mitigate the worst impact of a “no-deal” scenario. The protection offered is real. The measures will make sure that EU and UK citizens can continue to live and work where they are at the moment. They make sure that planes can take off and land. We have adapted our financial instrument to make it possible to help fishing communities. We have identified the ways in which law enforcement cooperation can continue. We have taken steps to mitigate disruption on our financial markets.

The measures we have taken are time-limited and unilateral. They provide a cushion for key EU interests at least until the end of the year. But disruption will be inevitable for citizens, for businesses and for almost every sector.

The United Kingdom will be affected more than the European Union because there is no such thing as a “managed or negotiated no-deal” and there is no such thing as a “no-deal transition”.

And whatever happens, the United Kingdom will still be expected to address the three main separation issues.

  • Citizens' rights would still need to be upheld and protected.
  • The United Kingdom would still have to honour its financial commitments made as a Member State.
  • And thirdly, a solution would still need to be found on the island of Ireland that preserves peace and the internal market. The United Kingdom must fully respect the letter and spirit of the Good Friday Agreement.
“No-deal” does not mean no commitments. And these three issues will not go away. They will be a strict condition to rebuild trust and to start talking on the way forward.

At the European Council next week, we will listen to Prime Minister May's intentions and decide how to proceed. The principles that will guide my actions are clear. I will work until the last moment to avoid a “no-deal” outcome.

The only ones who would benefit from such disruption are the opponents of the global rules-based order. The only ones who would cheer are the populists and the nationalists. The only ones who would celebrate are those who want both the European Union and the United Kingdom to be weak.

The European Union will not kick any Member State out. I will personally do everything I can to prevent a disorderly Brexit and I expect political leaders across the EU27 and in the United Kingdom to do the same.

Thank you.

Extract: In light of Prime Minister May's statement last night, I believe we now have a few more days. If the United Kingdom is in a position to approve the Withdrawal Agreement with a sustainable majority by 12 April, the European Union should be prepared to accept a delay until 22 May.

But 12 April is the ultimate deadline for the approval of the Withdrawal Agreement by the House of Commons. If it has not done so by then, no further short extension will be possible. After 12 April, we risk jeopardising the European Parliament elections, and so threaten the functioning of the European Union.

Time is almost up.
 
Certainly.
We desperately need true leadership don't we. True leadership is about having the vision to look beyond the obvious to the possible.

It is then about putting in place the mechanism to get to that position and managing the transition.

Unfortunately we are being lead by people without that vision. Instead by people who cannot even see the obvious. Small minded amateurish people who completely fail to grasp the current problems and instead of resolving those problems, they are creating more by their stupid muddled thinking.

Believe me. I have worked with both types.
There were loads who could give you a thousand reasons why we couldn't do something. I had no respect for them; only for the positive thinkers who did not listen to that rubbish.
There are very few true leaders and maybe none amongst the 650 MPS and that is a real problem.

Agree.
They've proven to be a bunch of amateurs, even those in senior positions appear clueless.

Now the only game in town seems to be who can blame who the most.
 
Setting himself up nicely for a Boris vs Corbyn campaign, almost like he planned eh

Quite probably. He has been strangely quite lately. All about posturing and trying to position himself so nothing sticks.

If he does become leader of the Conservatives, he will eat poor old Jeremy alive. Can you imagine PMQ.
As I have mentioned before if there is a new Tory leader then Labour must get rid of JM and appoint someone who is actually electable, unlike JC.

Will they be clever enough to do it. Extremely unlikely.
 
Is May seriously going to sit down with Jeremy Corbyn to try to do a 'deal', any deal, at any price, even a Labour government?

The fact its even being considered shows how powerful the threat of 'No Deal' actually is within UK Politics, let alone what effect it has on the EU. Many EU watchers are beginning to think the EU would now take a 'No deal' rather than have the UK contest the forthcoming EU elections, and then still finish up with an impasse, or worse still, a 'no deal default position still in play, further down the line!

At the moment the UK Government can only guarantee that a new day will dawn tomorrow; not a deal, any deal (even a no deal) can be reached in Parliament, or more especially with the EU. Neither can it guarantee a GE could be held and even if that was to happen, the current in- built remain majority in Parliament could be maintained. Its the same with new referendum, the 'get on with it' chorus, is only likely to increase as everyone outside the political classes gets thoroughly 'peed-off' with what's happening.

Finding its way out of a paper-bag would be easier for Mays Cabinet and the UK Parliament!
 
They’re all messaging very nicely that any Brexit consequences are now Labour’s fault. Corbyn really needs to play this smart now.

I don't see a way out the best he can do is fall on his sword to avoid damage for the next person.

He agrees a CU - Pisses off remainers and leavers
He agrees CU and SM - Pisses off remainers less but leavers more
He refuses all without a confirmation vote - Pleases remainers but really pisses off leavers and damages party
Agrees GE and approves WA - Really pisses off remainers and some leavers
 
They’re all messaging very nicely that any Brexit consequences are now Labour’s fault. Corbyn really needs to play this smart now.

Not so sure, or least that's not all Johnson's doing. He pins the blame on the Cabinet here, rather than May. Bear in mind that most of the likely other contenders for the leadership position are current Cabinet members, but May is gone whatever happens. If he can make out that the cabinet did a deal with Corbyn then its the Cabinet who take the most flak. After all, both the Tories and Leavers in general already dislike Corbyn. Long term it'll be no bad thing for the Tories if they can blame Labour for this disaster, but Johnson isnt Osborne, I dont think he can do that kind of long term machiavellian planning.
 
Evening Standard said:
Revealed from Cabinet meeting:

Plan A in Cabinet was to force a Commons decision using Alternative Vote method (preferences) with four options: May deal/Corbyn deal/revoke/no deal.

(Note: List doesn't include 2nd ref.)

This is what to expect when/if Corbyn talks end in failure
EDIT: Scoop 'Choker got there first. :D
 
They’re all messaging very nicely that any Brexit consequences are now Labour’s fault. Corbyn really needs to play this smart now.
Only blinkered Ultra Brexiteers can buy into that message; because they clearly have no sense of reality nor self awareness.
 
Only blinkered Ultra Brexiteers can buy into that message; because they clearly have no sense of reality nor self awareness.

Repeat something often enough and without it being properly challenged, and most people will come to believe it in some form.
 
I don't see a way out the best he can do is fall on his sword to avoid damage for the next person.

He agrees a CU - Pisses off remainers and leavers
He agrees CU and SM - Pisses off remainers less but leavers more
He refuses all without a confirmation vote - Pleases remainers but really pisses off leavers and damages party
Agrees GE and approves WA - Really pisses off remainers and some leavers

Hang on. He has been advocating A Customs Union (not THE customs union) for ages.
It is the inverse of the above. TM is fixated on her WA at the expense of everything else.
 
Only blinkered Ultra Brexiteers can buy into that message; because they clearly have no sense of reality nor self awareness.

You mean like Labour caused the global financial crisis? And are currently run by an IRA supporting jew hating Marxist who wants to turn is into Venezuela?

You overestimate the plebs
 
I don't see a way out the best he can do is fall on his sword to avoid damage for the next person.

He agrees a CU - Pisses off remainers and leavers
He agrees CU and SM - Pisses off remainers less but leavers more
He refuses all without a confirmation vote - Pleases remainers but really pisses off leavers and damages party
Agrees GE and approves WA - Really pisses off remainers and some leavers

Welcome to Brexit where everyone will be unhappy.
 
British citizens will not need a visa for short trips to countries in the EU, following Brexit, now that EU lawmakers have struck a deal over a law which had been blocked by dispute over Gibraltar’s status.
It was agreed that British travellers would be granted a visa waiver for stays of up to 90 days in any 180-day period, as long as the British government upheld its promise not to require visas for EU citizens.

The visa waiver will apply to all EU member states except Ireland, which already has a common travel area with the UK allowing free movement between two countries. The visa waiver also applies to Norway, Liechtenstein, Iceland and Switzerland, non-EU countries that belong to the border-free travel zone.

The EU said the law should be published in the EU rule book before 12 April “to prepare for a no deal Brexit on that date”. The law still has to pass through formalities, including a vote in the full European parliament on Thursday.

British citizens at the moment have the right to live and work in any EU member state, but the law spells out that that right will lapse after Brexit.

Separately it emerged that travellers from the UK would no longer be allowed to bring pork pies, bacon sandwiches or cheddar cheese into the EU in the event of a no-deal Brexit. If the UK crashes out of the bloc, individuals will no longer be allowed to bring meat, cheese or any other animal-based food into the EU, although commercial imports will be allowed subject to checks and controls

“Any animal-based product is probably not what you want to put in your luggage,” said an EU official. “That is the end of that kind of souvenir that you can bring back from the UK.”

“You can bring some very serious diseases into the EU by bringing these type of products,” the official said referring to the EU’s strict standards on food safety the UK would no longer follow under a no-deal Brexit. “You could have commercial imports of the sausage by the local Marks & Spencer if you really wanted to sell those sausages [in the EU]” said the official.
 
The whole European adventure has been handled less than ideally from the start. Heath took us in without a referendum for God’s sake.

No referendums since 1975 on the likes of Maastricht & the EU constitution. No real options for those who would vote against. Other EU states held referendums why didn’t we?

Pro EU Blair signing Amsterdam, Nice, Rome & the Social Chapter but bottling a Euro referendum because there was a real chance of us saying no. Was that an indication of sorts from the plebs, do you think? Well we weren’t given the chance to speak on even that were we?

The rise of UKIP fuelled by years of resentment with the establishment, squeezing the Labour & Tory votes. Cameron seeking to appease & his plan backfiring.

Yes, a feck up indeed & both parties are to blame to some degree.
 
Interesting Guardian article: Exclusive: ‘grassroots’ groups that spent up to £1m on targeted Facebook ads share administrator who works for lobbying firm

Choice extracts:
A series of hugely influential Facebook advertising campaigns that appear to be separate grassroots movements for a no-deal Brexit are secretly overseen by employees of Sir Lynton Crosby’s lobbying company and a former adviser to Boris Johnson, documents seen by the Guardian reveal.

Their collective Facebook expenditure swamps the amount spent in the last six months by all the UK’s major political parties and the UK government combined.

Although Facebook has substantially increased the level of transparency around political advertising in recent months, all that is required to run such a campaign is a publicly named individual who is registered to a UK postal address or contact details for a public organisation. There is no true disclosure around a campaign’s financial backers and no UK law requiring financial transparency outside an election period.
 
They can't even decide if they should get to vote again ffs
 
Bercow votes no. Can’t blame him really, it would have been hard to defend a yes in terms of the speakers role.
 
Bercow Prevents Indicative vote: "It is not for the chair to create a majority which does not otherwise exist"
 
That might be significant if rumours of government only bringing brexit options to their indicative votes are true.

It could be the end of peoples vote