Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Steven Seagull]

All 3.

Customs Union solves nothing at all other than having the same external tariffs and the UK can't do their own trade deals but there would still need to be a border becuase of different standards and diffferent legislation/jurisdiction plus no freedom of movement.
GE or People Vote only solves it if the outcome is a remain government who cancels Brexit otherwise back to square one.

How would you leave the EU?

 

[711]

If there is a GE lets hope that one party gets an overall majority.

If you're a Remainer that would have to be the Liberals.

 

[sun_tzu]

What do you expect to happen if one of the parties had a majority?
If Tories won ....

If Labour won....

I think a ge could work but in basic terms either labour or the conservatives would need a massive majority to simply push legistlation through as they would both have a lot of backbench rebels.

Equally though the EU are not stupid... And perhaps they make any extension something like 2 years and they insist on the negotiations taking place on a cross party basis to ensure a majority?... Would be hard for many to object to that as all sides seem to now be critisising may for not doing that

 

[Devil_forever]

The best compromise now is to accept a customs union and insert that into her current deal. The leave vote prioritised leaving the single market and ending freedom of movement, which we still would be honouring under Ken Clarke’s proposal. That way labour should then have no reason to reject it, unless the truth is they’re playing politics all along just to get a GE.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

How would you leave the EU?

Depends what you want. If you're willing to break the GFA you leave with no deal, that's the only way other than doing it in name only.

If you were another country that didn't have the additional problem of the Northern Irish border and didn't have the EUro (which is another complication the UK don't have) you could do it more easily but if you're prepared to suffer enormous consequences of not having free flowing goods etc.

UK have two of the biggest problems of all, its geographical position relying on its close proximity to European mainland and not having other non-EU countries close to it plus the GFA. As I said having the EUro would have complicated it even more.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I think a ge could work but in basic terms either labour or the conservatives would need a massive majority to simply push legistlation through as they would both have a lot of backbench rebels.

Equally though the EU are not stupid... And perhaps they make any extension something like 2 years and they insist on the negotiations taking place on a cross party basis to ensure a majority?... Would be hard for many to object to that as all sides seem to now be critisising may for not doing that

Yes , even the parties themselves are so divided and even the ERG is now divided.

I was wondering what both parties would propose for Brexit in their manifesto.
The Tories would surely go for a hard brexit.
Labour would probably faff about with Corbyn's idea which is a no goer and neither remainers or leavers would support it so a clear way for Tories even if they are divided.

 

[ThierryHenry]

Well if you voted for it in the first place then the option that you think is for the betterment of the country is the option that is being overturned.....

But you were wrong. You’ve permanently weakened the country.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

SNP MP told to "go back to her own country" by some EDL/UKIP/BNP feckwit at the protest yesterday.

 

[sun_tzu]

So what's the he likley timetable from here
Monday 1st... Parliament in control of commons... Non binding on the government ... Gut feel again no majority for any of the three options.
Tuesday 2nd... General kerfuffle and possibly a confidence motion called?
Wednesday 3rd... Somehow scraping through the confidence motion after An even more childish pmq's than normal
Thurdsay 4th... may tries her deal again and looses
Friday 5th... Parliment has emergency options about asking for a delay or going with no deal
Saturday + Sunday lots of froth but no real substance
Monday 8th ... Presuming extension was selected over no deal some indicative votes about how long an extension
Tuesday 9th... Presumably pm saying she will reluctantly ask for an extension but depending on the terms EU offer won't necessarily accept
Wednesday 10th... Pmq's setting new levels of childishness and then off to the EU summit to get their extension terms
Thursday 11th... Pm says terms not acceptable and she will be holding mv5 her deal or no deal on 12th
Friday 12th... May announces she will resign at midnight with either her deal passed or having left with no deal

Basically setting up the scenario she always seemed to want...

 

[Sherzad]

https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1111955526601056256?s=

 

[Sherzad]

 

[sun_tzu]

Yes , even the parties themselves are so divided and even the ERG is now divided.

I was wondering what both parties would propose for Brexit in their manifesto.
The Tories would surely go for a hard brexit.
Labour would probably faff about with Corbyn's idea which is a no goer and neither remainers or leavers would support it so a clear way for Tories even if they are divided.

Yes I think Tories go with something like "managed no deal"
Labour I'm not sure... Unicorn customs union with a confirmation referendum.

Gut feel Tories are the only leave option and the election turns into a defacto 2nd referendum with the remain and soft brexit votes split between labour SNP libs/change and the other smaller parties and with fptp that probably favours the conservatives

It's why I think they will ultimately roll the dice on a ge

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I've always been a strong leaver, but I think it's time to settle this once and for all with another vote. We should be out of the EU this morning, but parliament hates democracy.
This time the vote should be Remain or Leave (with no deal), but this time the government must honor the result. Personally I think it's still 50/50 and could go either way.
What's the point pursuing a deal that leavers and remainers don't really want. It should be a "winner takes all vote", not a "peoples vote", we already had that.

No deal breaks the GFA. How do you reconcile that?

And even with no deal to have any further talks with the EU the UK has to confirm the citizens rights, pay what they owe and resolve the border problem, ie sign the deal.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Yes I think Tories go with something like "managed no deal"
Labour I'm not sure... Unicorn customs union with a confirmation referendum.

Gut feel Tories are the only leave option and the election turns into a defacto 2nd referendum with the remain and soft brexit votes split between labour SNP libs/change and the other smaller parties and with fptp that probably favours the conservatives

It's why I think they will ultimately roll the dice on a ge

There is no such thing as a managed no deal and the EU made clear last night that is not an option.

So basically after the GE has wasted a bit more time, we're all back to where we are today.
That's why I say a GE solves nothing.

 

[Fortitude]

There is no such thing as a managed no deal and the EU made clear last night that is not an option.

So basically after the GE has wasted a bit more time, we're all back to where we are today.
That's why I say a GE solves nothing.

What do you believe the outcome of the next round of votes will be?

 

[sun_tzu]

There is no such thing as a managed no deal and the EU made clear last night that is not an option.

So basically after the GE has wasted a bit more time, we're all back to where we are today.
That's why I say a GE solves nothing.

It might well be true that "managed no deal" isn't a viable option after the election... Still think it will be a viable (and successful ) manifesto lie promice

 

[Paul the Wolf]

What do you believe the outcome of the next round of votes will be?

Have a feeling that a lot of the Tories didn't vote in the first round so they will probably vote this time and all will not get a majority again.

Having said that, I don't see how any of the options make a difference to the logjam.

 

[Fortitude]

Have a feeling that a lot of the Tories didn't vote in the first round so they will probably vote this time and all will not get a majority again.

Having said that, I don't see how any of the options make a difference to the logjam.

Ultimately, do you foresee a resolution as we veer towards the no deal date?

 

[Ubik]

Yes but Labour isn't proposing that although Corbyn's trying to pretend it sounds like that. In a customs union you cannot do your own deals and having the same rules, standards , single market etc you have to have the four freedoms.

And I'm pretty sure the Brexieters don't want any of this.

Agreed on the deliverability, was just talking about what was necessary to keep the open border as now.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Ultimately, do you foresee a resolution as we veer towards the no deal date?

The tactic from the UK seems to be to try to find a way to delay it as long as possible..
If the UK really leave and not break the GFA they have to stay in the customs union and single market, which makes Brexit pointless, I don't see any other way. But at this moment it looks like no deal.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

I think the chances of a no-deal exit on April 12 are very high. In other periods of history, I would hope for an immediate emergency general strike by the 6m+ Remainers who signed the petition to revoke A50, but it's pretty hard to imagine that kind of widespread action in the modern world.

 

[Smores]

Incorrect.

On further reading Turkey don't even have an all encompassing custom union with the EU, it excludes agriculture for instance. The examples rubbish.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

On further reading Turkey don't even have an all encompassing custom union with the EU, it excludes agriculture for instance. The examples rubbish.

What about Corbyn’s plan to place the UK in a permanent customs union with the EU? This would certainly eliminate the need for customs controls to collect tariffs – as a customs union would eliminate tariffs on all goods crossing internal frontiers. But it would not eliminate customs controls entirely. This can be seen from the fact that between 1973 and 1992, the UK and Ireland were in a Corbyn-style customs union with each other (called the European Economic Community) and yet customs controls were maintained.

Member states of a customs union can maintain all sorts of regulations – such as health standards, agricultural controls and minimum product standards – and goods entering the market need to be checked for compliance with these. This is exactly what customs officers along the Northern Irish border were doing until the single market emerged in 1993.

Only in a single market are such standards harmonised or mutually recognised on a comprehensive basis – without the need for customs checks. This is why it was possible to abolish systematic customs checks along the border in 1993.

Corbyn’s proposal, if the EU agreed to it, would reduce customs checks along the frontier and be a hugely welcome boost to cross-border trade and to the prosperity of both the UK and Ireland. It is also infinitely preferable to the May-Johnson free trade area plan. What it will not do, however, is end the prospect of a hard border.

For this, both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland need to be in a single market with one another. One way of doing this is for the UK as a whole, in leaving the EU, to stay in a single market and customs union relationship with the EU 27 states – what could be called a “Norway plus” deal. Another is the fall-back option within the EU’s draft withdrawal agreement – that Northern Ireland remains part of the current EU customs territory after Brexit.

https://theconversation.com/would-s...brexit-avoid-a-hard-border-with-ireland-92485

 

[Paul the Wolf]

On further reading Turkey don't even have an all encompassing custom union with the EU, it excludes agriculture for instance. The examples rubbish.

Starmer already said he wouldn't contemplate a Turkey style Custom's Union. It was formed as a prelude to eventually having Turkey as a member of the EU but we all know that is unlikely to happen in any of our lifetimes, even the youngest of us.
But it's the only Custom's union other than the real Customs Union that exists with the EU.

The point is even with a Customs Union the legal jurisdiction and standards etc have to be the same on both sides of the border as they are now. And I'm not just talking about Ireland , all the borders including Dover.

With just a Customs Union the UK could import for example childrens toys from the far east with six inch nails sticking out of them, these would be banned in the EU.
What I mean is whatever is imported into the UK which no longer has the standards of the EU cannot freely cross over borders.

 

[Stanley Road]

What do you expect to happen if one of the parties had a majority?
If Tories won ....

If Labour won....

Not being held to ransom by dup

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Not being held to ransom by dup

One of May's many errors of judgement

 

[Stanley Road]

One of May's many errors of judgment

Yes. Cant think of 1 good thing theyve brought to the govt.

 

[MadMike]

All 3.

Customs Union solves nothing at all other than having the same external tariffs and the UK can't do their own trade deals but there would still need to be a border becuase of different standards and diffferent legislation/jurisdiction plus no freedom of movement.
GE or People Vote only solves it if the outcome is a remain government who cancels Brexit otherwise back to square one.

The bolded is not true, you can do your own trade deals while being in the Customs Union. Turkey is in the Customs Union and not the Single Market yet does its own trade agreements with other nations, notably the Turkey-Malaysia FTA which was signed in 2015 a full 20 years after its ascension to the Customs Union.

Will it solve the border situation in Ireland? No.
Is it better than staying in the Single Market? Certainly not.

But ultimately if it solves the impasse and delivers something better than no-deal, it's an improvement. Indefinite uncertainty is even worse. The UK needs to get on with its life one way or another.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The bolded is not true, you can do your own trade deals while being in the Customs Union. Turkey is in the Customs Union and not the Single Market yet does its own trade agreements with other nations, notably the Turkey-Malaysia FTA which was signed in 2015 a full 20 years after its ascension to the Customs Union.

Will it solve the border situation in Ireland? No.
Is it better than staying in the Single Market? Certainly not.

But ultimately if it solves the impasse and delivers something better than no-deal, it's an improvement. Indefinite uncertainty is even worse. The UK needs to get on with its life one way or another.

As stated above it's only a partial CU and firstly wouldn't be applicable to the UK and already rejected by Labour - how does it solve the impasse?

 

[Fortitude]

The tactic from the UK seems to be to try to find a way to delay it as long as possible..
If the UK really leave and not break the GFA they have to stay in the customs union and single market, which makes Brexit pointless, I don't see any other way. But at this moment it looks like no deal.

I think the chances of a no-deal exit on April 12 are very high. In other periods of history, I would hope for an immediate emergency general strike by the 6m+ Remainers who signed the petition to revoke A50, but it's pretty hard to imagine that kind of widespread action in the modern world.

This is what I've been thinking but don't really want to believe and it's bothersome others think there's a very real possibility of the no deal actually coming to fruition.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

This is what I've been thinking but don't really want to believe and it's bothersome others think there's a very real possibility of the no deal actually coming to fruition.

At the end of the day to stop no-deal the UK have to agree to a deal which is feasible and not pie-in-the-sky or they cancel Brexit. The UK seem a long way away from either of those.

 

[Fortitude]

At the end of the day to stop no-deal the UK have to agree to a deal which is feasible and not pie-in-the-sky or they cancel Brexit. The UK seem a long way away from either of those.

Yes, I don't see the impasse being positively progressed, especially with the parties voting in their own interests and not for the benefit of the people and that makes no deal a real possibility, which I didn't think was feasible a few weeks ago.

 

[Steven Seagull]

Why are MP’s allowed to abstain from votes? And is it possible to force them to vote?

 

[The Firestarter]

Why are MP’s allowed to abstain from votes? And is it possible to force them to vote?

If you are Kim Jong-un .

 

[MadMike]

As stated above it's only a partial CU and firstly wouldn't be applicable to the UK and already rejected by Labour - how does it solve the impasse?

Partial or not, it still invalidates your statement. Obviously it would only solve the impasse if it gets accepted. It doesn't need to get backed by Labour, it only needs to get backed by the parliamentary majority and it seemed awfully close at doing so, hence I said with a bit of cajoling it seems more likely to pass than May's WA. If the SNP back it, it probably goes through.

And why wouldn't the UK get the option of membership to the Customs Union? I don't recall Brussels saying that option is not available. What isn't available is the Labour unicorn option, where we are in the Customs Union only but somehow get a veto on things.

Ultimately the UK's production is 80% services and 19% industry and <1% agriculture. Agreeing to full customs union of industrial and agricultural products, while maintaining the right to strike your own deals for services might be a workable situation for the UK. Sub-optimal but workable.

We all know the best deal is what we've got. The point is which compromise might go through

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Partial or not, it still invalidates your statement. Obviously it would only solve the impasse if it gets accepted. It doesn't need to get backed by Labour, it only needs to get backed by the parliamentary majority and it seemed awfully close at doing so, hence I said with a bit of cajoling it seems more likely to pass than May's WA. If the SNP back it, it probably goes through.

And why wouldn't the UK get the option of membership to the Customs Union? I don't recall Brussels saying that option is not available. What isn't available is the Labour unicorn option, where we are in the Customs Union only but somehow get a veto on things.

Ultimately the UK's production is 80% services and 19% industry and <1% agriculture. Agreeing to full customs union of industrial and agricultural products, while maintaining the right to strike your own deals for services might be a workable situation for the UK. Sub-optimal but workable.

We all know the best deal is what we've got. The point is which compromise might go through

If they are in the customs union they cannot do their own trade deals full stop. It does not invalidate what I said. Turkey can do it because they're in an introductory CU but there is still a border so nothing at all is solved.

Secondly of course they can be part of the Customs Union but it doesn't solve the problem. Doesn't solve any problem.

 

[JPRouve]

If they are in the customs union they cannot do their own trade deals full stop. It does not invalidate what I said. Turkey can do it because they're in an introductory CU but there is still a border so nothing at all is solved.

Secondly of course they can be part of the Customs Union but it doesn't solve the problem. Doesn't solve any problem.

If I'm not mistaken they could do their own trade deals but not only a border and custom checks would be needed but the custom agreement would exclude services and capitals.

 

[MadMike]

If they are in the customs union they cannot do their own trade deals full stop. It does not invalidate what I said. Turkey can do it because they're in an introductory CU but there is still a border so nothing at all is solved.

Secondly of course they can be part of the Customs Union but it doesn't solve the problem. Doesn't solve any problem.

A customs union always means borders anyway. Only a single regulatory market removes the borders.

You can be in a customs union or the customs union, that's up for discussion. But the point is whatever goods are traded in the customs union you are part of, are the ones you can't independently negotiate and sign FTAs for. And services are not exchanged through customs so you can always sign deals for the exchange of services independently.

And yes, it solves some problems. You just chose not to see it, clearly.

 

[MadMike]

If I'm not mistaken they could do their own trade deals but not only a border and custom checks would be needed but the custom agreement would exclude services and capitals.

Correct but only tangible, material goods pass customs anyway. Services and capital are under different regulatory oversight. And yes the UK would independently be able to sign deals for those. Which I think is JRM's golden goose anyway, since he seems to want to turn the UK into an offshore financial centre Singapore-style.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

A customs union always means borders anyway. Only a single regulatory market removes the borders.

You can be in a customs union or the customs union, that's up for discussion. But the point is whatever goods are traded in the customs union you are part of, are the ones you can't independently negotiate and sign FTAs for. And services are not exchanged through customs so you can always sign deals for the exchange of services independently.

And yes, it solves some problems. You just chose not to see it, clearly.

Yes you can sign the WA add that you wish to join a CU in the political declaration, but you could do that anyway, it could be part of the negotiation in the future so what problems does it solve. A border stops the UK functioning in Ireland for different reasons than Dover for example.

Bearing in mind that the main problems are the Irish border, the Tories don't want a CU of any kind and Labour want a CU where they can do what they like. I'm talking real problems that need to be solved now. The problem of avoiding no deal .