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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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If you somehow hold a second referendum which results in a Remain majority and overrules the previous one, what's to say there won't be calls for a third referendum a few years down the line to overrule the second one? Surely that's not a viable option?
Not a hope in hell of any Government offering another referendum after this shit show.
 
If you somehow hold a second referendum which results in a Remain majority and overrules the previous one, what's to say there won't be calls for a third referendum a few years down the line to overrule the second one? Surely that's not a viable option?
Almost like ... Elections every four years?
 
I actually think that establishing a third referendum four years after the second would be a good way to go unless the second referendum is also leave in which case there is no point.

The brexiteers who would moan about the 'election' being stolen can campaign for another four years to make sure everyone gets it right the third time and the population can soak in another four years of EU and see how they feel about it now that they have learned that you can't actually have your cake and eat it too.

And winning a second referendum where there has been plenty of time for reflection and seeing more clearly what's at stake ought to be a quite definitive stance for the population at large.
 
I would fully expect Farage and his Brexit party to campaign for another referendum, and they are entitled to do so.

But now everyone knows what leaving actually is and what it entails they should be entitled to a final vote to determine whether it truly is the 'will of the British people' to leave the EU at any cost.

Do they? I'm genuinely asking, since as an outsider I do not know much beyond the online articles I read or videos I watch. I was under the impression that even now there are some MPs who still don't understand or don't care what Leave truly entails. Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, off the top of my head (with the admittedly limited knowledge I have of them).

There will never be a point when the electorate is completely informed, in my opinion. It is a time-based learning curve - five tears down the line into a hypothetical Remain scenario, you could argue that the UK 'has learned from its mistakes, has understood what it needs to do differently, is more informed than ever, and is now ready to tackle a strong WA that puts country first'.

It'll be like a contract renewal scenario where the player threatens to leave every time the contract is running down - sometimes the club can offer you a better deal and sometimes it'll be better to just leave.
 
They may have debated it but they don’t seem to understand it. Why is a Norway++ arrangement or so-call CM 2 options being postulated as topics for indicative voting? First we have to decide how we leave. Either of those options will take time to set up. The EU have said that whatever we want as a trading relationship we have to actually leave the bloc before negotiations can start. So what on earth do our intrepid Parliamentarians envisage to be the route to whatever it is we wind up with? There has to first be a WA or we crash out. Then we negotiate Norway or whatever.

Convoluted arguments. Cart before horse.

They understand all this perfectly it's just the two documents have to be agreed together as a package according to the EU (happy to be corrected). Our government wouldn't and won't seperate these as terms of debate because they don't want an alternative discussed hence we have mixed discussions where different people are arguing in different aspects of the package.

The WA agreement itself would pass parlaiment there isn't really any dispute on that.
 
Almost like ... Elections every four years?

In fairness, referendums aren't designed to be held repeatedly every four years in the way general elections are. I'm very sure the EU have zero interest in the uncertainty that would come from the UK repeatedly weighing up whether to leave or not, nor do the various businesses currently operating in the UK. Whereas general elections every few years by their nature don't carry the same level of potential long-term disruption.

If there was another referendum that would realistically be it for quite a long while.
 
They understand all this perfectly it's just the two documents have to be agreed together as a package according to the EU (happy to be corrected). Our government wouldn't and won't seperate these as terms of debate because they don't want an alternative discussed hence we have mixed discussions where different people are arguing in different aspects of the package.

The WA agreement itself would pass parlaiment there isn't really any dispute on that.

So you are saying that parliament will agree to being in the Customs Union and not be able to do their own trade deals?
 
There may be calls for anything. However, if the UK remains now after a 2nd referendum , neither Tory nor Labour will go forward with yet another one for the foreseeable future. The only way for that to happen is if something like UKIP wins a majority.

I do not know enough of UK politics to understand why you think so. I was thinking of it purely from a matter of principle and precedent. I might be quite wrong, of course.

Who gives a feck, we'll still be in the EU and that's the main thing.

For now, yes. What about 5 years later when the Leave campaigns start again? How long will the EU tolerate a wantaway player who causes so much drama? What precedent does it set for the other members?

According to The Guardian at least even when MPs talk about a second referendum they don't mean a re-run of the previous Brexit/no-Brexit one:

"A second referendum between leaving and staying in the EU – essentially a replay of the 2016 vote – would be a separate option but nobody in parliament is seriously calling for that. Instead, a referendum could be attached as a condition of approval of one of the other options above. Or there could be a three-choice referendum, between a range of the above options, although three-way referenda are unusual internationally."

So it's unlikely a second referendum would directly overrule the previous one, I think.

Ah, this would make a lot of sense. A repeat will potentially set up a loop, but a follow up question will settle things down for a good while.

Almost like ... Elections every four years?

Exactly.
 
They should vote to stay in the single market. It is the only solution that makes any sense. Was it worth all the fuss? No, not at all, but then it never was.

I think the 'we have to leave first, then negotiate the relationship' is only because of the red lines. If we say we want to stay in the single market, the whole act of withdrawal is simple and there is no complex relationship to work out.
 
Do they? I'm genuinely asking, since as an outsider I do not know much beyond the online articles I read or videos I watch. I was under the impression that even now there are some MPs who still don't understand or don't care what Leave truly entails. Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, off the top of my head (with the admittedly limited knowledge I have of them).

There will never be a point when the electorate is completely informed, in my opinion. It is a time-based learning curve - five tears down the line into a hypothetical Remain scenario, you could argue that the UK 'has learned from its mistakes, has understood what it needs to do differently, is more informed than ever, and is now ready to tackle a strong WA that puts country first'.

It'll be like a contract renewal scenario where the player threatens to leave every time the contract is running down - sometimes the club can offer you a better deal and sometimes it'll be better to just leave.

I think it's universally accepted that everyone now has a much clearer picture of the options and impacts of leaving the EU. That alone gives value to another referendum and that's without going into the legitimacy of the previous one.

As for a future referendum that will be decided by voters in general elections to come but they'd be no more unicorns. After the inevitable public enquiry i think the process itself will be corrected so we avoid this type of shitshow.
 
So you are saying that parliament will agree to being in the Customs Union and not be able to do their own trade deals?

We'll find out surely but i think It'll be the price they're willing to accept to get brexit through.

And yes i know it's pointless
 
is that the UK could never have opted for No Deal from day 1.

Yes it could, remember it was never the Governments policy to leave the EU it really wanted to reform certain elements; however Cameron had tried this already and got short-shift, he was sent away with the proverbial flea in his ear. It was the subsequent referendum which produced the Leave vote which May ceased upon and persuaded 80% of parliament to vote for A50. The simple fact of the matter is that unprepared as it was, the Government/Parliament should not have applied for A50 until it was ready... but it did, and once it had done so, then a No Deal' situation was the only option, notwithstanding all the issues it would raise about borders and GFA.

Surely you must realize by this stage what you have been suggesting was never an option.

As I have tried to explain above and in previous posts, once A50 had been actioned then 'No Deal' was the only option because the UK government was caught with its pants down and could only realistically 'negotiate' once we were out of the EU, in fairness a point the EU made time and time again. A binary choice was given in the referendum and cemented in place once A50 was applied for and it is still the case, Leave without a deal or revoke A50, there is no other choice, as I suspect we will see after the debacle that will now take place in Parliament.
 
We'll find out surely but i think It'll be the price they're willing to accept to get brexit through.

And yes i know it's pointless

Yes so if by some miracle parliament agrees on a direction and the government implement that , then the political declaration will be amended to say the intention is to remain in the customs union etc .

I don't see it but if it did happen what do Brexiters then say when they realise they are still tied to the EU and can't do their fantastic trade deals with Bongo Bongo Land.
 
So you are saying that parliament will agree to being in the Customs Union and not be able to do their own trade deals?
Based on negotiations so far that probably sounds like our best way of negotiating any decent deals

I'm not sure any of the indicative votes will get a majority but I think that option has perhaps the best chance of passing.

That said I think may would rather try a general election if she can't force her deal through
 
The penny finally drops for Mogg. Hopefully it's still too late.



Also :lol:

 
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Yes so if by some miracle parliament agrees on a direction and the government implement that , then the political declaration will be amended to say the intention is to remain in the customs union etc .

I don't see it but if it did happen what do Brexiters then say when they realise they are still tied to the EU and can't do their fantastic trade deals with Bongo Bongo Land.

The Brexiteers will be hoping they can oust the PM later this year and replace her with one of their own, ready for the big prize of the future relationship negotiations.

If they had any sense, they'd hold their noses and vote the WA through, for the sake of greater long-term gain. This may well still happen.
 
Yes it could, remember it was never the Governments policy to leave the EU it really wanted to reform certain elements; however Cameron had tried this already and got short-shift, he was sent away with the proverbial flea in his ear. It was the subsequent referendum which produced the Leave vote which May ceased upon and persuaded 80% of parliament to vote for A50. The simple fact of the matter is that unprepared as it was, the Government/Parliament should not have applied for A50 until it was ready... but it did, and once it had done so, then a No Deal' situation was the only option, notwithstanding all the issues it would raise about borders and GFA.

So ignoring the major piece of international law that precluded it from being an option it was an option?

As I have tried to explain above and in previous posts, once A50 had been actioned then 'No Deal' was the only option because the UK government was caught with its pants down and could only realistically 'negotiate' once we were out of the EU, in fairness a point the EU made time and time again. A binary choice was given in the referendum and cemented in place once A50 was applied for and it is still the case, Leave without a deal or revoke A50, there is no other choice, as I suspect we will see after the debacle that will now take place in Parliament.

You keep repeating yourself if thats what you mean, but it doesn't mean you are right. Even once A50 was triggered No Deal wasn't the only option, it was never really an option that anyone considered for the reasons i and other have been explaining. The British government have a withdrawal agreement in place agreed with the EU which proves that No Deal wasn't the only option. And there were other potential agreements that could have also been negotiated and agreed.

In short the British Government could have never came out and said they were just leaving with no deal and breaking the GFA. Even if they had wanted to, which they didnt want because despite all their collective incompetence even they're not that daft. And leaving with No Deal has numerous other undesirable implications far beyond just the border situation in Ireland.

And of course the irony here is that we may well end up leaving with No Deal because of the previously mentioned incompetence, which is seemingly rife at almost every level of the current Government.
 
Based on negotiations so far that probably sounds like our best way of negotiating any decent deals

I'm not sure any of the indicative votes will get a majority but I think that option has perhaps the best chance of passing.

That said I think may would rather try a general election if she can't force her deal through

The best trade deals the Uk can possibly get is to remain in the EU.

I still don't see how a general election will solve any of this mess. Basically most of the same MPs will be back and still not agree. The same problems that exist now will still be there in the future.
 
The Brexiteers will be hoping they can oust the PM later this year and replace her with one of their own, ready for the big prize of the future relationship negotiations.

If they had any sense, they'd hold their noses and vote the WA through, for the sake of greater long-term gain. This may well still happen.


Yes they want her to take the flak and then move on . When both sides of the spectrum were happy that the WA was voted down you knew there was problem.
But even if all the Tories, including the devout remainers, voted for the WA it is doubtful if will go through.
 
Rees-Mogg now supporting us becoming a "vassal state". What a climb-down. Complete blowhard idiot.
 
The Tories really should make JRM their leader once May has gone. He seems to be the one with the real power these days, at least if he was actually leader he would have some accountability as well. Its too easy sitting on the sidelines talking bollocks and having half the country think you are some kind of genius because nothing you say is ever actually tested. Let's see how he negotiates our future trading relationship, he still thinks we have all the cards, let him see how that works out, and if it doesnt he has to carry the can.
 
Rees-Mogg now supporting us becoming a "vassal state". What a climb-down. Complete blowhard idiot.

Proves that all these morons care about is “Winning”.
 
Proves that all these morons care about is “Winning”.
''The Tories in England had long imagined that they were enthusiastic about the monarchy, the church and beauties of the old English Constitution, until the day of danger wrung from them the confession that they are enthusiastic only about ground rent.”
 
Truly terrible idea.
Mine?

I see why you say that but we are all dancing to his tune anyway, this way when things go wrong he gets to say its someone else's fault.

I honestly think when people are put in positions of authority, reality slaps them in the face and they have to moderate their positions. Think Syriza in Greece.

I appreciate its a risk. But if a Brexiter isnt put in charge of Brexit we are only storing up a massive betrayal conspiracy for a later date.
 
Yes they want her to take the flak and then move on . When both sides of the spectrum were happy that the WA was voted down you knew there was problem.
But even if all the Tories, including the devout remainers, voted for the WA it is doubtful if will go through.

We may soon find out. Looks like the ERG are beginning to cave.
 
Even if the ERG and DUP change their minds and vote for the WA, I still don't believe there is enough support in the house for it. Certainly not after May's speech last Wednesday
 
I think JRM knows he would never be able to actually deliver on what he says as well, which is why he never puts himself up as a candidate.

He’s a happy underdog. Enjoys screeching at the system, pointing out the issues and claiming there is easy fixes but has no solutions.

The worst thing about it is that he profits from the chaos. He’s another treasonous cnut.