Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[CassiusClaymore]

None of this is to do with Brexit is becoming quite a theme.

Leavers sounding more and more like the Iraqi war minister day by day.

 

[Maticmaker]

Probably, yes, but these are jobs contributing zero added value to the economy, merely dealing with a problem that we decided to create.

Actually yes, they will be jobs created as a direct result of Brexit, whether they add value or not, they will exist!

 

[MadMike]

I get you now.

I don't know to be honest. It may be time to evolve. There is huge money in the services sector. I see your point about manufacturing but to manufacture you need to have people willing to do the conveyor belt jobs and to be fair not many people want to do them and AI/Robotics will be replacing these jobs in the next while anyway. Evolution is the way forward.

Are you Internet Explorer? What do you mean by "evolve". That evolution happened decades ago.

Straight from Wikipedia:

The service sector is the dominant sector of the UK economy, and contributes around 80.2% of GDP as of 2016.

Ironically the service sector requires participation in the single market more than any other sector because it's covered by the 4 freedoms of the single market. Trade deals are usually for specifics baskets of goods and exclude services which can be very wide ranging, yet on the free movement of which the UK relies very heavily.

 

[MoskvaRed]

Actually yes, they will be jobs created as a direct result of Brexit, whether they add value or not, they will exist!

So bloating the public sector in other words. It sounds like Brexiteers and Corbyn might have even more in common than their antipathy to the EU.

 

[golden_blunder]

Actually yes, they will be jobs created as a direct result of Brexit, whether they add value or not, they will exist!

Haha seriously mate, we’re talking about a catastrophic effect on the jobs market with companies pulling manufacturing left, right and centre and all that’s incoming is a few created to clear the backlogs at ports etc and keep them flowing. Where are the real job creation that was promised?

 

[golden_blunder]

The more I listen/watch the likes of farage and jrm on tv or radio shows, the more I wonder how the feck this happened. Watching farage debate with a vet on a radio show, she tore him to bits with facts and his face said it all “oh feck, didn’t know that”.

 

[jeff_goldblum]

The more I listen/watch the likes of farage and jrm on tv or radio shows, the more I wonder how the feck this happened. Watching farage debate with a vet on a radio show, she tore him to bits with facts and his face said it all “oh feck, didn’t know that”.

Any time someone comes at Farage with facts he crumbles, I don't think we'd be in the situation we are if journalists and producers had treat him like a politician instead of granting him disproportionate airtime and soft interviews because they thought him a throwback who guaranteed entertainment value and was ultimately harmless.

 

[Buster15]

The global trend is to now supply Europe from somewhere that has a trade deal with Europe (Japan) rather than somewhere that does not (UK)
Totally not brexit related etc...

Honda are also closing their factory in Turkey and centralising production in Japan.

While this decision is a disaster for the Swindon workforce as well as component suppliers, that is the reality of the motor industry.

On the positive side, Dyson are working on the production of electric cars in Malmesbury; not that far from Swindon.

 

[RedChip]

Brexiteers blaming global trends...what next? WTO?

Considering SMEs make up the bulk of UK businesses, wonder how many of them are quietly making decisions such as Honda, Nissan, Airbus?

 

[Wibble]

They aren’t going to make up for the thousands of jobs negatively impacted

Yep. It is delusional to think that there isn't going to be a big economic hit including a loss of jobs.

 

[RedChip]

Honda are also closing their factory in Turkey and centralising production in Japan.

While this decision is a disaster for the Swindon workforce as well as component suppliers, that is the reality of the motor industry.

On the positive side, Dyson are working on the production of electric cars in Malmesbury; not that far from Swindon.

Maybe they regard the UK now as unfavourable as Turkey, which isn't in the EU?

 

[Buster15]

Maybe they regard the UK now as unfavourable as Turkey, which isn't in the EU?

Yes. Could be but I understand that it is primarily to do with an overcapacity of production and the drop in demand for diesel engine cars.
Awful news though.

 

[mitChley]

Honda are also closing their factory in Turkey and centralising production in Japan.

While this decision is a disaster for the Swindon workforce as well as component suppliers, that is the reality of the motor industry.

On the positive side, Dyson are working on the production of electric cars in Malmesbury; not that far from Swindon.

My understanding (from working in Automotive manufacturing & having colleagues go to Dyson regularly) is that while they are working on it, the cars will not be made here.

Last month we had a big German OEM tell us that they want to move three production lines from our site to mainland Europe solely because of Brexit.

 

[Buster15]

My understanding (from working in Automotive manufacturing & having colleagues go to Dyson regularly) is that while they are working on it, the cars will not be made here.

Last month we had a big German OEM tell us that they want to move three production lines from our site to mainland Europe solely because of Brexit.

Good to hear from someone with inside knowledge.

I had been talking to someone at the gym who has been involved in building work on the site but clearly your information is more correct.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Honda are also closing their factory in Turkey and centralising production in Japan.

While this decision is a disaster for the Swindon workforce as well as component suppliers, that is the reality of the motor industry.

On the positive side, Dyson are working on the production of electric cars in Malmesbury; not that far from Swindon.

Swindon's a long way from Singapore where they will be made. Japan and Singapore both have trade deals with the EU, that's why.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Actually yes, they will be jobs created as a direct result of Brexit, whether they add value or not, they will exist!

Seriously mate, I thought your original post was sarcastic.

You mean to tell us you're serious?

 

[MadMike]

Swindon's a long way from Singapore where they will be made. Japan and Singapore both have trade deals with the EU, that's why.

They won't be made is Sing, they just moved their business in terms of where they are registered along with a total of 3 staff. Nothing gets made in Singapore, it's too expensive to make stuff there.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

They won't be made is Sing, they just moved their business in terms of where they are registered along with a total of 3 staff. Nothing gets made in Singapore, it's too expensive to make stuff there.

Depends what incentives the Singapore government are giving Dyson , tax breaks etc and with Singapore's free port they can access the supply chain from China, Korea etc in the area. One thing is for sure it won't be built in the UK.

Rolls Royce make engines there as an example of manufacturing plants in Singapore

 

[4bars]

Actually yes, they will be jobs created as a direct result of Brexit, whether they add value or not, they will exist!

You must be the typical guy that throws rubbish on the street sayiing :" I am creating jobs for the street sweeper force" . You could start littering all UK to create jobs. Brilliant idea!

 

[Maticmaker]

Haha seriously mate, we’re talking about a catastrophic effect on the jobs market with companies pulling manufacturing left, right and centre and all that’s incoming is a few created to clear the backlogs at ports etc and keep them flowing. Where are the real job creation that was promised?

Exactly, we are talking about... something which may or may not happen! I can be just as optimistic as you can be pessimistic, Que sera, sera!

 

[golden_blunder]

Exactly, we are talking about... something which may or may not happen! I can be just as optimistic as you can be pessimistic, Que sera, sera!

Of course you can, but based on what? Blind faith that these people in charge can create more jobs than they’ve ever done in lifetimes of government?

 

[Honest John]

Honda are also closing their factory in Turkey and centralising production in Japan.

While this decision is a disaster for the Swindon workforce as well as component suppliers, that is the reality of the motor industry.

On the positive side, Dyson are working on the production of electric cars in Malmesbury; not that far from Swindon.

This is a classic 9/11 moment according to one MP when that happened. 'A good time to bury bad news'.

Expect a lot more 'commercial' decisions that may have only been options on the boardroom table but were set against the political repercussions. Brexit is the perfect opportunity to act on these.

That is what lays behind Airbus's comments. I work predominantly on Airbus projects and I can tell you the the wing-building business that this country has made it's own, is jealously coveted by the Germans, the French and even the Chinese. There are 14,000 people directly employed by Airbus in the UK with a further 114,000 in the UK-based supply chain of which my company employs 44. If Airbus has any notion of eventually moving this business to Europe or to low-cost China Brexit provides the ideal excuse.

The key will be what happens to the purpose-built facility at Broughton for making the A380 wings. The A380 programme is now going to cease in 2021 due to lack of orders. But that is not a downturn - Airbus have a 10,000 plane backlog. Customers are ordering the A350 instead.

What should happen is that the A380 facility is reconfigured to allow for a ramp-up in production of the A350. If this does not happen and Airbus decide to close that section then that will be an indicator that they have long-term plans to make wings elsewhere.

None of this will happen quickly - it will be like a slow puncture for our manufacturing industry and thus the headbangers will always be able to claim it was all down to a changing global landscape which in their view Brexit is not a part of.

 

[Maticmaker]

Seriously mate, I thought your original post was sarcastic.

You mean to tell us you're serious?

Just as seriously optimistic, as those who are seriously pessimistic about Brexit!

If, and I emphasis the if, there is a no deal Brexit then fundamental changes are likely to happen, to our economy yes and to society as well, and there will of course be winners and losers. Those who are currently losing out will want to be optimistic about the change coming, those who see themselves as winning will quite rightly feel pessimistic about any change, but change will come whatever.
Possibly being outside the EU will force the UK to get a better balance in its economy less dependant on Banking and other services, people as diverse as JRM and JC see this from an optimistic standpoint (different results of course) but throwing off the shackles of the EU is something they both look forward too!
I was being ironic, but the fact is the one thing we know for certain if there is a No deal, many more Customs officers, port authority personnel etc. will be required, so its definite job creation in that sense.

I've said on other posts I don't believe there will be a Brexit, of any kind, our current crop of politicians are too scared to take that leap and now the Labour party has broken ranks, one or two Tories will be looking side-wards at each other. Politicians do not have a death wish mentality and will sell their own grandmothers, never mind constituents to keep their jobs. A way will be found to avoid Brexit and to blame the people as well for that decision!

 

[Honest John]

Just as seriously optimistic, as those who are seriously pessimistic about Brexit!

If, and I emphasis the if, there is a no deal Brexit then fundamental changes are likely to happen, to our economy yes and to society as well, and there will of course be winners and losers. Those who are currently losing out will want to be optimistic about the change coming, those who see themselves as winning will quite rightly feel pessimistic about any change, but change will come whatever.
Possibly being outside the EU will force the UK to get a better balance in its economy less dependant on Banking and other services, people as diverse as JRM and JC see this from an optimistic standpoint (different results of course) but throwing off the shackles of the EU is something they both look forward too!
I was being ironic, but the fact is the one thing we know for certain if there is a No deal, many more Customs officers, port authority personnel etc. will be required, so its definite job creation in that sense.

I've said on other posts I don't believe there will be a Brexit, of any kind, our current crop of politicians are too scared to take that leap and now the Labour party has broken ranks, one or two Tories will be looking side-wards at each other. Politicians do not have a death wish mentality and will sell their own grandmothers, never mind constituents to keep their jobs. A way will be found to avoid Brexit and to blame the people as well for that decision!

Yeah and don't forget the extra staff we'll need in the Job-centres and Benefits offices.

 

[Maticmaker]

You must be the typical guy that throws rubbish on the street sayiing :" I am creating jobs for the street sweeper force" . You could start littering all UK to create jobs. Brilliant idea!

See, you can come up with new ideas for jobs if you try.... just takes a bit of imagination. No need to worry about Brexit with people like you in the 'think tank' vanguard.

 

[Smores]

It's hillarious to see Brexiteers try and claim this isn't due to brexit at all. Who needs access to the EU market eh?

 

[Maticmaker]

being

Of course you can, but based on what? Blind faith that these people in charge can create more jobs than they’ve ever done in lifetimes of government?

It will be the impact of the changes that make the difference, if there is a no deal Brexit, not individuals. In terms of manufacturing, we have a low base already (compared with the past) the infrastructure of the country cannot support a return to a large manufacturing base on the old style, of tin-bashing and assembly lines etc. As with mobile phones its the Smart era that is emerging, the AI and other related technologies which will take us forward and we are ahead in many of these field already. Mass production, such as exists in the car industry will eventually disappear as new 'greener' vehicles come on to the market, so will the means of production for these vehicles. Whether you believe its the effects of a threatened Brexit or not, Honda and Nissan are withdrawing back to base, in order to develop new products for the future, if and when they want to return to manual labour to build their products it won't be in the UK, or even the EU, China or India are the likely destination.

We have to get a head of the game and Brexit just might be the spur we need as a nation... if it happens!

 

[golden_blunder]

Yeah and don't forget the extra staff we'll need in the Job-centres and Benefits offices.

Definite jobs!

 

[JPRouve]

This is a classic 9/11 moment according to one MP when that happened. 'A good time to bury bad news'.

Expect a lot more 'commercial' decisions that may have only been options on the boardroom table but were set against the political repercussions. Brexit is the perfect opportunity to act on these.

That is what lays behind Airbus's comments. I work predominantly on Airbus projects and I can tell you the the wing-building business that this country has made it's own, is jealously coveted by the Germans, the French and even the Chinese. There are 14,000 people directly employed by Airbus in the UK with a further 114,000 in the UK-based supply chain of which my company employs 44. If Airbus has any notion of eventually moving this business to Europe or to low-cost China Brexit provides the ideal excuse.

The key will be what happens to the purpose-built facility at Broughton for making the A380 wings. The A380 programme is now going to cease in 2021 due to lack of orders. But that is not a downturn - Airbus have a 10,000 plane backlog. Customers are ordering the A350 instead.

What should happen is that the A380 facility is reconfigured to allow for a ramp-up in production of the A350. If this does not happen and Airbus decide to close that section then that will be an indicator that they have long-term plans to make wings elsewhere.

None of this will happen quickly - it will be like a slow puncture for our manufacturing industry and thus the headbangers will always be able to claim it was all down to a changing global landscape which in their view Brexit is not a part of.

On that part, it was a political decision from the EADS shareholders to share the production, there is no jealousy involved or anything special that the UK did. Just to put your figures in context, there is 14k employees in the UK while there is 21k in Toulouse alone, you say that there is 114k jobs linked to the sector in the UK while there is 350k in France. Jealousy isn't the term at all.

 

[Stick]

Are you Internet Explorer? What do you mean by "evolve". That evolution happened decades ago.

Straight from Wikipedia:


Ironically the service sector requires participation in the single market more than any other sector because it's covered by the 4 freedoms of the single market. Trade deals are usually for specifics baskets of goods and exclude services which can be very wide ranging, yet on the free movement of which the UK relies very heavily.

By evolve I mean adapt to the economic situation and try not to have a romantic view of folk working on assembly lines. I know the UK has a services economy and that the freedom of movement allows massive custom for service providers and buyers alike but some folk that voted to leave seem to think that this is not the case.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Got to feel sorry for all the people whose lives are being wrecked by this lunacy.

 

[Buster15]

On that part, it was a political decision from the EADS shareholders to share the production, there is no jealousy involved or anything special that the UK did. Just to put your figures in context, there is 14k employees in the UK while there is 21k in Toulouse alone, you say that there is 114k jobs linked to the sector in the UK while there is 350k in France. Jealousy isn't the term at all.

John is right about the wing manufacture.
As he knows well the wing manufacturer includes a number of key systems. Fuel and undercarriage wheels tyres and brakes.
All these need not only to be designed but the systems to be integrated.

The level of technology that goes into this is extremely important as is the need for new advanced materials.
The wings will need to be ever more advanced to reduce weight and drag to maximise lift.

The UK is currently a world leader in this and he is correct that other countries and other companies will be trying to attract this technology away from the UK.

 

[JPRouve]

John is right about the wing manufacture.
As he knows well the wing manufacturer includes a number of key systems. Fuel and undercarriage wheels tyres and brakes.
All these need not only to be designed but the systems to be integrated.

The level of technology that goes into this is extremely important as is the need for new advanced materials.
The wings will need to be ever more advanced to reduce weight and drag to maximise lift.

The UK is currently a world leader in this and he is correct that other countries and other companies will be trying to attract this technology away from the UK.

And none of that has anything to do with the point made. The UK got the wings through EADS, other countries got other parts. It's a different story for aircraft engines, the UK excels in it and it has nothing to do with a political decision.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Got to feel sorry for all the people whose lives are being wrecked by this lunacy.

And they simply don't seem to care, do they?

JRM was going on, on QT, last week, about being able to agree more favourable trade deals than Europe has and the way he talks so nicely & reasonably you almost find yourself agreeing with him. Until you realise that there is no way the UK is gong to be able to negotiate a better trade deal than the whole of the EU, only an idiot would think that, and in any case it takes years, and years, to agree a new trade deal with 1 country, never mind 10s, if not 100s or different countries.

This is fecking madness, stop destroying my country, you cnuts!

 

[Honest John]

On that part, it was a political decision from the EADS shareholders to share the production, there is no jealousy involved or anything special that the UK did. Just to put your figures in context, there is 14k employees in the UK while there is 21k in Toulouse alone, you say that there is 114k jobs linked to the sector in the UK while there is 350k in France. Jealousy isn't the term at all.

At the least 'coveted'. Or are you saying neither the French of Germans would be interested in making wings?

 

[Reiver]

I've seen Brexit impacting in a couple of ways this week. A family with a severely disabled son have been having trouble getting some very specialised equipment for him. They have always got the equipment no problem before. When they emailed the company (based in Belgium I think), asking why the aids could not be supplied the reply blamed Brexit and could give no form date on when they could give them the equipment. I'm not going to pretend to understand why this is the case but I've seen the email and Brexit was definitely the reason given.

Also, a few close friends from the EU have been trying to sort their settlement status and it must be one of the most crazy processes I've ever seen, and working for a local authority I've seen a few. Nobody seems to understand what is going to happen and it's causing my friends a great deal of anxiety and distress as they have no idea if they will be able to remain in the country.

 

[JPRouve]

At the least 'coveted'. Or are you saying neither the French of Germans would be interested in making wings?

The jobs are definitely coveted, particularly in Occitanie. But you understand why I picked on the jealousy part, it is a totally different meaning and leads to a different narrative which is crucial in a political topic like Brexit.

 

[Oo0AahCantona]

How have I only just discovered James O’Brien on lbc. He puts brexit to the absolute sword in words that are impossible to ignore or refute.

 

[Adisa]

 

[Honest John]

The jobs are definitely coveted, particularly in Occitanie. But you understand why I picked on the jealousy part, it is a totally different meaning and leads to a different narrative which is crucial in a political topic like Brexit.

I have honestly had enough of this now. It gives me migraine.

It's a 4D Chess match and I can't see a route through.

Bemoaning Cameron, Farage, the ERG, the lies and the 15.4 million people is not going to solve anything.

Cancelling A50 sounds simple but it isn't. We'd have a problem that would make the gilets jaunes pale into insignificance.

Plus despite the lies I am not sure whether binning the referendum result is good for democracy. I do think we have to leave the EU in some fashion.

2nd Ref/peoples vote? Fraught will all manner of problems. What would the questions be and how can they not be biased? What if the result was the same or narrowly the other way?

WTO/hard Brexit? Total disaster, not to be even contemplated.

Labour's ideas? A customs union? Maybe. Close alignment to the SM? Don't know what that means. Climate/environment/workers rights/participation in funding progs/security and EU arrest Warrant? Non-issues just poilitcal points these will happen in any case.


I think it's May's deal in some form that can get through the house as a WA then eventually an FTA that would pretty much need to be A customs union in all but name. Ireland will be a fudge of regulatory alignment and tech. There will be issues but that's about as good as it gets if the UK wants to have other trade deals.

Failing that I'd take Norway. We will have left the EU which was all that was on the ballot paper. There will be trouble but more manageable then if the the whole vote was overturned.