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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Back May’s deal, then hold people’s vote: plan to end Brexit deadlock
Theresa May could win parliament’s approval for her controversial Brexit deal in return for guaranteeing another referendum, under a new plan being drawn up by a cross-party group of MPs. The new vote would give the British people a simple choice: to confirm the decision or stay in the EU.
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https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-deal-then-hold-peoples-vote-backbencher-plan

Interesting. Can't imagine it has a hope in hell's chance of getting government backing.
 
Main problem is that I don't see how either May or Corbyn back it. Which is admittedly quite a big problem.
 
I don't think Corbyn or May would ever go for it. Labour voting through May's deal and it squeezing through in a 2nd referendum could lose them a third of their seats at the next election. On the other side, if May lost a second referendum where one of the options was the deal she's been working on for 3 years, she and most of her cabinet would be on the slag heap with Cameron and Osbourne.

The one scenario I can see happening is May enticing ultra-Remain Labour MPs with a 2nd ref promise, getting her deal passed and then closing ranks, never speaking of the second referendum again and hiding behind the parliamentary arithmetic. The one thing you can basically guarantee is that when the going gets tough, Tory rebels will shit themselves and back the leadership. She'd look like a giant liar but Tory voters would love for it.
 
jeff_goldblum said:
I don't think Corbyn or May would ever go for it. Labour voting through May's deal and it squeezing through in a 2nd referendum could lose them a third of their seats at the next election. On the other side, if May lost a second referendum where one of the options was the deal she's been working on for 3 years, she and most of her cabinet would be on the slag heap with Cameron and Osbourne.

The one scenario I can see happening is May enticing ultra-Remain Labour MPs with a 2nd ref promise, getting her deal passed and then closing ranks, never speaking of the second referendum again and hiding behind the parliamentary arithmetic. The one thing you can basically guarantee is that when the going gets tough, Tory rebels will shit themselves and back the leadership. She'd look like a giant liar but Tory voters would love for it.
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Why would ultra-Remain MPs be tempted to literally vote to definitively leave the EU without a binding commitment to a second ref?
 
Ubik said:
Why would ultra-Remain MPs be tempted to literally vote to definitively leave the EU without a binding commitment to a second ref?
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I'm not sure what you mean by a 'binding commitment'. Most of these things are "gentlemen's agreements", I'm sure a few would be tempted to take the offer on faith, just look at the DUP, they've been propping May up for two years on the promise of £1bn that there's literally no guarantee they'll ever see and for which there is currently no legislation in sight. Granted they're mostly mad, but still.

If you mean a binding commitment in terms of a clause in a piece of legislation, in the British system where parliament is sovereign there's no such thing. Legislation is constantly overwritten by new legislation. Parliament has the power to make or un-make any law and no parliament can pass a law which cannot be changed or reversed by a future parliament. There's absolutely no legal difference between parliament choosing to overwrite a law that was passed 100 years ago or 100 days ago or 100 minutes ago. In theory, there's nothing to stop May passing a law with a clause promising a second ref and then doing another bit of horse-trading to create a majority to bin it again.
 
jeff_goldblum said:
I'm not sure what you mean by a 'binding commitment'. Most of these things are "gentlemen's agreements", I'm sure a few would be tempted to take the offer on faith, just look at the DUP, they've been propping May up for two years on the promise of £1bn that there's literally no guarantee they'll ever see and for which there is currently no legislation in sight. Granted they're mostly mad, but still.

If you mean a binding commitment in terms of a clause in a piece of legislation, in the British system where parliament is sovereign there's no such thing. Legislation is constantly overwritten by new legislation. Parliament has the power to make or un-make any law and no parliament can pass a law which cannot be changed or reversed by a future parliament. There's absolutely no legal difference between parliament choosing to overwrite a law that was passed 100 years ago or 100 days ago or 100 minutes ago. In theory, there's nothing to stop May passing a law with a clause promising a second ref and then doing another bit of horse-trading to create a majority to bin it again.
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But you'll notice your second paragraph there is a lot different to your initial premise of "closing ranks and never speaking of it again". You're now saying she'd have to, after it's all finally been voted through, rush through another amendment that removes the referendum part whilst preserving her deal, relying on ERG, DUP and Labour leaver votes to do so. This is fanciful.
 
jeff_goldblum said:
I don't think Corbyn or May would ever go for it. Labour voting through May's deal and it squeezing through in a 2nd referendum could lose them a third of their seats at the next election. On the other side, if May lost a second referendum where one of the options was the deal she's been working on for 3 years, she and most of her cabinet would be on the slag heap with Cameron and Osbourne.

The one scenario I can see happening is May enticing ultra-Remain Labour MPs with a 2nd ref promise, getting her deal passed and then closing ranks, never speaking of the second referendum again and hiding behind the parliamentary arithmetic. The one thing you can basically guarantee is that when the going gets tough, Tory rebels will shit themselves and back the leadership. She'd look like a giant liar but Tory voters would love for it.
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May is proposing it so you'd normally expect her to go for it (rejecting her own deal doesn't help my argument tbf). Corbyn wouldn't want to go for it but I think he'll have a hard time pushing against it. He's either cancelling brexit or throwing away the one opportunity the country has to avoid the mess. Both are terrible looks for his future GE chances which is the only thing he cares about.
 
Jippy said:
Unsurprising, but infuriating. The fecking arrogance of these pricks thinking they're welcomed like loyalty in Spain.
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They seem to have created a literal bubble for themselves. The arrogance thing has to be some past down trait from once having a empire, at least from the video there seem to be even a couple of rule Britannia sticker around the place. I get a similar vibe when seeing white Americans over here, can only image how bloody annoying the Ottomans were.

It was amazing to see the giant leaps of political ideology the last man was doing. He voted to leave the EU to I image give the UK backs it's "independence" yet as soon as he finds out that will have a negative effect on him he turns into a full blown Europeanist. And of course you can't teach a bigoted old dog new tricks "freedom of movement for us proper Europeans"

Not to go too off topic but I've really never understood why someone would move to another country to then spend most of their time in a wetherspoons. I was watching one of those Place In The Sun type shows that are on Channel 4 (Yes I'm unemployed at the moment)and there was this couple in their late 30's(So I don't think it's just a age thing)who wanted to buy a apartment in a similar ex pat resort in the Costa Del Sol.

They had been coming to this part of Spain for 6 years running and not once had they left the resort(It seemed they barely left the communal swimming pool area). In fact the first time they heard about dolphin spotting trips was when the producers of the show organised one for them and the boat company who offered this experience was within walking distance of the resort. It became embarrassing to point where I actually felt sorry for them, to think of all the things their missing out on because they would rather sunbathe and eat out at Pizza hunt is a rather depressing thought. How can anyone be that disinterested in what the world has to offer.

Still good news for Michael McIntyre career.
 
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Sweet Square said:


Boomers are as thick as pig shit.
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The couple with the dog - voted to leave, but they still want their own freedom of movement. I have no sympathy at all. In any case, they are just winter holiday-makers, not ex-pats - they haven't moved their lives there, like the old guy with all the health issues has. I don't think Spain will miss them too much, they all live as cheaply as possible when they're out there over the winter.

By the way, not all us Boomers are stupid, you know. :)
 
Ubik said:
But you'll notice your second paragraph there is a lot different to your initial premise of "closing ranks and never speaking of it again". You're now saying she'd have to, after it's all finally been voted through, rush through another amendment that removes the referendum part whilst preserving her deal, relying on ERG, DUP and Labour leaver votes to do so. This is fanciful.
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Yeah that's fair enough. I was more envisioning a situation more akin to the first paragraph to be honest. The second was just to point out that literally nothing is 'binding' in parliament. It's happened before that a majority has gotten a bill past first reading and a 'different' majority has gotten it through 2nd with an amendment which wouldn't have got the initial majority.

When I referred to "never speaking of it again" I was being tongue in cheek. Politicians say something and change their mind all the time, and their media training to deal with the inevitably scrutiny is basically "deflect the question and change the subject".
 
Sweet Square said:
They seem to have created a literal bubble for themselves. The arrogance thing has to be some past down trait from once having a empire, at least from the video there seem to be even a couple of rule Britannia sticker around the place. I get a similar vibe when seeing white Americans over here, can only image how bloody annoying the Ottomans were.

It was amazing to see the giant leaps of political ideology the last man was doing. He voted to leave the EU to I image give the UK backs it's "independence" yet as soon as he finds out that will have a negative effect on him he turns into a full blown Europeanist. And of course you can't teach a bigoted old dog new tricks "freedom of movement for us proper Europeans"

Not to go too off topic but I've really never understood why someone would move to another country to then spend most of their time in a wetherspoons. I was watching one of those Place In The Sun type shows that are on Channel 4 (Yes I'm unemployed at the moment)and there was this couple in their late 30's(So I don't think it's just a age thing)who wanted to buy a apartment in a similar ex pat resort in the Costa Del Sol.

They had been coming to this part of Spain for 6 years running and not once had they left the resort(It seemed they barely left the communal swimming pool area). In fact the first time they heard about dolphin spotting trips was when the producers of the show organised one for them and the boat company who offered this experience was within walking distance of the resort. It became embarrassing to point where I actually felt sorry for them, to think of all the things their missing out on because they would rather sunbathe and eat out at Pizza hunt is a rather depressing thought. How can anyone be that disinterested in what the world has to offer.
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A lot of British people just want to go and do the same things they do in England but in a nicer climate.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Theresa May wants more time, until the end of February, to revive her deal. This thing was clearly dead in December if not before, we should be well into plan B by now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47187491

Fiddling whilst Rome burns.
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Sometimes I think this is how we'll all be when the climate is finally fecked and it's too late to actually fix.

Negotiating with a foregone conclusion. A great look indeed, worst PM ever.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Theresa May wants more time, until the end of February, to revive her deal. This thing was clearly dead in December if not before, we should be well into plan B by now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47187491

Fiddling whilst Rome burns.
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Wants to head back to commons for a her deal or no deal vote late march ideally

Wonder if things might have been different if benns amendment had not been pulled on the first vote (this would have legally blocked no deal I think)... But if course Corbyn played his blinder and pressured it to be dropped so they could hand a bigger political defeat to may... And every day no deal becomes more probable

Both sides have been incredibly Partizan throughout. Embarrassing really

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...y-benn-withdraws-amendment-to-may-brexit-deal
 
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Jippy said:
Unsurprising, but infuriating. The fecking arrogance of these pricks thinking they're welcomed like loyalty in Spain.
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Lots of things are embarrassing but few worse than Brits abroad.
We often go on cruises around the Mediterranean. When in port you can pick out the British people miles away.

Often overweight and often badly dressed waddling around.
 
100K jobs could be lost in Germany, in the case of a hard Brexit - a recent study suggests.
 
Some of those immigrants to Spain are a bit well, thick aren’t they.

Never understood why there are called ex-pats instead of immigrants, it’s not like we call the Polish community ex-pats is it. It’s like British people living elsewhere hold themselves in some sort of weird high regard.
 
Penna said:
By the way, not all us Boomers are stupid, you know. :)
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Yeah my bad, it was more said out of frustration that anything eles. But having said that I do think and I'm sure @devilish has mentioned something similar that on the whole boomers have completely abandoned the idea their kids will have a better life than they did. Which seemed before(Although I could be totally wrong here as usual)to be somewhat a driving force for the previous generations.

horsechoker said:
A lot of British people just want to go and do the same things they do in England but in a nicer climate.
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Cornwall is beautiful in the summer. The weather here isn't that terrible, certainly not bad enough to fill up other parts of the world with wetherspoons and awful architecture as far as the eye can see.
 
madzo2007 said:
Some of those immigrants to Spain are a bit well, thick aren’t they.

Never understood why there are called ex-pats instead of immigrants, it’s not like we call the Polish community ex-pats is it. It’s like British people living elsewhere hold themselves in some sort of weird high regard.
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I agree. I posted this in another thread:

RedChip said:
The word 'expat'. Get over it, Brits, if you live abroad, you are an immigrant like any other.
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Sweet Square said:
Cornwall is beautiful in the summer. The weather here isn't that terrible, certainly not bad enough to fill up other parts of the world with wetherspoons and awful architecture as far as the eye can see.
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Maybe it's the fault of the Spanish authorities who allow this but I don't know enough to be too critical. What I do know is that it's not just the English who do it, it's also the Irish.
 
madzo2007 said:
Some of those immigrants to Spain are a bit well, thick aren’t they.

Never understood why there are called ex-pats instead of immigrants, it’s not like we call the Polish community ex-pats is it. It’s like British people living elsewhere hold themselves in some sort of weird high regard.
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Actually "Colonial Masters" is the preferred term.
 
horsechoker said:
Maybe it's the fault of the Spanish authorities who allow this but I don't know enough to be too critical. What I do know is that it's not just the English who do it, it's also the Irish.
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A fair few of the UK pensioners who spend the winter in Spain probably have little interest in Spanish life and culture. They want a warm climate (low heating bills) and cheap food (of the sort they'd eat in the UK). If they are over UK state pension age, they get free healthcare (at the moment).

I can't see the Spanish missing that too much because most of them probably don't put much into the economy. They don't winter in Spain to spend a lot of money there.
 
Sweet Square said:


Boomers are as thick as pig shit.
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Disgusting. There are few things more embarrassing than Brits abroad.

The term 'Ex-pat' is also the absolute height of arrogance.

'He was clearly against Brexit as well'.

Must make his opinion invalid then.
 
africanspur said:
Disgusting. There are few things more embarrassing than Brits abroad.

The term 'Ex-pat' is also the absolute height of arrogance.
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To be accurate, "ex-patriate" is a person living in another country who intends to return to their original country at some time. "Immigrant" is a person who makes a permanent move. Most of these Brits in Spain are ex-pats, because they have no intention of settling there for good.

The problem is that the term "immigrant" is used pejoratively in some circumstances. Most of the young Eastern European workers in the UK are ex-pats, as they don't want to stay forever - they firmly intend to return back to their own countries at some point. However, many Brits would incorrectly refer to them as immigrants.
 
Penna said:
To be accurate, "ex-patriate" is a person living in another country who intends to return to their original country at some time. "Immigrant" is a person who makes a permanent move. Most of these Brits in Spain are ex-pats, because they have no intention of settling there for good.

The problem is that the term "immigrant" is used pejoratively in some circumstances. Most of the young Eastern European workers in the UK are ex-pats, as they don't want to stay forever - they firmly intend to return back to their own countries at some point. However, many Brits would incorrectly refer to them as immigrants.
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While this is strictly true, this isn't the use of the terms that I have heard from British people, either here in the UK or abroad.

I'm sure there are but I honestly can't remember a single time I have ever heard British people refer to themselves as Immigrants. And I don't mean Brits in Dubai or Saudi who are there for the high pay packet but Brits I've met in Canada/ USA/ Australia (and I assume NZ, though I've not been) who almost uniformly refer to themselves as expats, even when they've been there for decades and have absolutely no intention of returning to the UK. I've just come back from Australia and there are so many British doctors there. Some there for decades, married, have kids, no intention of a return. Yet still call themselves ex-pats and the British community as a whole ex-pats.

And the flip side is, as you pointed out, that 'immigrants' from the 'wrong countries' are rarely, if ever called ex-pats, even when they intend to return to their countries.

Immigrant has taken on a pejorative slant which means I've found Europeans in general but especially Brits struggle to refer to themselves as such.
 
africanspur said:
Disgusting. There are few things more embarrassing than Brits abroad.

The term 'Ex-pat' is also the absolute height of arrogance.

'He was clearly against Brexit as well'.

Must make his opinion invalid then.
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Americans abroad are one
 
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