SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Nogbadthebad said:
If 80% are getting it with 'mild' symptoms and self isolating at home, and are being told not to even report they are ill, how exactly do you think you are getting 95% certainty?
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Sampling. You’d be surprised at what small samples you need to be able to create ranges with a high degree of certainty. It’s the same way we don’t need to hear from everyone in the country to get smoking prevalence statistics, but we can produce a sample with which we would have a high degree of confidence in.

You would learn about this in A Level maths if you do a statistics option, or you can do what I have been doing at work this week and do a 4-day course by Public Health England in Population Health statistics.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I don't think it is exactly the point though. The economy sustains us all, at a basic level its how you obtain the means to feed your children. If it completely collapses then we are fecked. Going into numerous full societal shutdowns over 18 months will have much bigger economic impacts than I think people are realising. It isn't simply a public health issue, it's much bigger than that. There's going to be a big economic hit from just the two month impact we are currently experiencing. Each shutdown will be more crippling than the last.
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Yes well lets get to 18 monthes first . Don't be expecting people to care about the economy in a years time when they are more concerned with whether they are their loved ones will be around
 
TMDaines said:
Rhyme, you aren’t coming across as leftist. You’re coming across asmore prejudist, intolerant and extremist than anyone I’ve seen online discussing this. The further you move left and the further you move right, the closer you get due to the horseshoe effect of dictatorships. You’re describing people as Tory with the same flippancy and distain as the far right describe things as Jewish.
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Who am I coming across as 'prejudist' against? Tories?

Tories aren't a religion or ethnicity, chum.

Who am I showing intolerance towards? Again, Tories?

The vulnerable in this crisis are old people and ill people - they need defending, right now.

If it insults the shithouse party that you (fairly clearly) voted for, to be frank mate, I couldn't give a feck. That's not extremism though - it's Humanism.

Again, press ignore, I'll be doing the same at this point as in all honesty I don't value what you've spouted in here thus far.

Take it easy, and have a good 'un. x
 
Iran unfortunately is a real world experiment as they are on the road to apparent herd immunity and nothing can be done there. Why not wait and see how it develops there first before making such decisions without a good amount research first? It’s crazy imo.
 
Rajma said:
There absolutely is such thing as key sentence. How can arguments from other side hold any water when it’s main element is currently baseless?
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Okay, then. This is the key sentence:
"Whether we aim for it or not, herd immunity will happen at some point in the future since neither a growing epidemic nor social distancing measures can continue forever, and the aim of policy should be for this to happen with the minimum human cost possible."

Herd immunity will happen.

Either we ignore that facts of virology and potentially end up with a high peak which overwhelms the NHS.

Or we accept that mother nature will eventually win and try to reach the point of equilibrium as painlessly as possible (but accepting that some pain will inevitably occur).
 
Rajma said:
@Dante what you’re essentially saying let’s slaughter a huge amount of people in order to see how our immune system reacts to it on reoccurring basis? Should we maybe wait and see first before making such decisions?
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Covid-19 can't be defeated. It's a part of our world.
 



[/QUOTE]
thing is, at the start at least, the testing was very iffy. There are more stories of people that likely never had it than there are of reinfection. Just take that guy from the princess Cruise that got taken off because he was positive, then tested negative, then positive again, then twice negative within the space of a few days.

It’s something that should be looked in to but articles like this genuinely are scaremongering with no large case study or peer review or even circunstancial evidence. There’s a guy on my Facebook that will post this article now and in capitals write “WE CAN BE REINFECTED!WHAT IS BORISS (Spelled wrong) DOING? DISGUSTING
 
lsd said:
Yes well lets get to 18 monthes first . Don't be expecting people to care about the economy in a years time when they are more concerned with whether they are their loved ones will be around
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Your loved ones won’t be here if they depend on social care, medicine etc. that they depend upon the economy for.

The economy is not just the stock market. When people are talking about the economy, people are talking about the basics of “production, distribution and trade, as well as consumption of goods and services by different agents.”

Just thinking about essentials, where do you think these are coming from without a functional economy? Think about the collapse of places like Zimbabwe, Venezuela and Weimar Germany where currency becomes worthless and you can not get hold of fresh food, clean water and medicine. That’s the bigger battle here. Our society is not set up for each household or locale to be self sustainable.
 
DFreshKing said:
Do you think large economic and societal impacts can cause death and illness too? What good would there be surviving corona but starving to death?
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Classical Mechanic said:
I don't think it is exactly the point though. The economy sustains us all, at a basic level its how you obtain the means to feed your children. If it completely collapses then we are fecked. Going into numerous full societal shutdowns over 18 months will have much bigger economic impacts than I think people are realising. It isn't simply a public health issue, it's much bigger than that. There's going to be a big economic hit from just the two month impact we are currently experiencing. Each shutdown will be more crippling than the last.
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That's it I am convinced now we should just let it burn and let the strongest survive.
 
Rhyme Animal said:
So, this 'herd immunity' thing then...
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Herd immunity doesn’t mean the complete immunity of individuals, but individuals each becoming more resistant to make the spread less likely.

You can be vaccinated against a disease and still get the disease. That doesn’t make vaccination not worthwhile.
 
TMDaines said:
Sampling. You’d be surprised at what small samples you need to be able to create ranges with a high degree of certainty. It’s the same way we don’t need to hear from everyone in the country to get smoking prevalence statistics, but we can produce a sample with which we would have a high degree of confidence in.

You would learn about this in A Level maths if you do a statistics option, or you can do what I have been doing at work this week and do a 4-day course by Public Health England in Population Health statistics.
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I did a level maths and a level statistics. I also attended UMIST.


Which is why I think the idea of deliberately throwing 80% of available data away is outright idiocy.

The more data the better. That is not my opinion, that is the WHO. We are not even tracking where the disease is, because we are actively telling people who have it not to inform anyone.

If you are a paid statistician and defend that then all I can say is wow.
 
Rhyme Animal said:
Who am I coming across as 'prejudist' against? Tories?

Tories aren't a religion or ethnicity, chum.

Who am I showing intolerance towards? Again, Tories?

The vulnerable in this crisis are old people and ill people - they need defending, right now.

If it insults the shithouse party that you (fairly clearly) voted for, to be frank mate, I couldn't give a feck. That's not extremism though - it's Humanism.

Again, press ignore, I'll be doing the same at this point as in all honesty I don't value what you've spouted in here thus far.

Take it easy, and have a good 'un. x
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You keep yelling Tories at people who vote at every election and have never voted Conservative in their life. Leave the party politics behind. Even the Labour party understands that the role of the Opposition is not to score points currently.
 
Do we have anyone on this forum anywhere near qualified enough to tell us as to why this reinfection could be happening? To try to make sense of this? I get the false negative testing part, obvious that can happen, but what about the fact that the people in question have seemingly recovered, then to only have a sudden onset of symptoms? I find it strange that more is not being made of these developments over the past few weeks. Seems like an important detail just to put down to false negative results.
 
Amar__ said:
I think they just hoped it won't spread more than anything else.
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That's not true. In China they estimate that 75% of infections occurred in the home, that is where you are most likely to get it from. There is little evidence that mass gatherings transmit the disease in a significant way, as far as I've read anyway. At a football match for one you are outside but if you do get infected by someone sneezing on you, you cannot pass that on to other people for another few days. There is no chain infection effect that I think people imagine there is. Whilst the virus is still relatively low in the population a mass gathering shouldn't pose much threat. The main issue is that mass gatherings require lots of police, medics etc so those valuable resources could be wasted. As it is at the moment the UK services are not overwhelmed yet so there was little evidence that mass gatherings should be have been stopped. The UK decision to ban them was political due to public perception and nothing else as far as I can see.



dove said:
That's it I am convinced now we should just let it burn and let the strongest survive.
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I'm not advocating for any position. I hold my hands up and say that I'm clueless. I'm just expressing a huge amount of scepticism that the WHO approach is going to work and everything is going to be OK if we follow it.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
Do we have anyone on this forum anywhere near qualified enough to tell us as to why this reinfection could be happening? To try to make sense of this? I get the false negative testing part, obvious that can happen, but what about the fact that the people in question have seemingly recovered, then to only have a sudden onset of symptoms? I find it strange that more is not being made of these developments over the past few weeks. Seems like an important detail just to put down to false negative results.
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Not qualified but if you get really sick from an infection don't you become more vulnerable going forward? Remember that British nurse that got Ebola, she had a big relapse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_Cafferkey

It was found in 2015 that, after an apparent complete cure, with the bloodstream, saliva and organs such as the liver free of the Ebola virus, it can linger on in parts of the body not protected by the immune system, including fluid in the eye, the central nervous system and, in men, the testes and semen.[15]
 
350 new cases and 10 deaths, definitely accelerating. In about 10 days we'll reach Italy levels now.
 
Ubik said:
Can we just make clear that this story is from late February, so is not newly known information to the people fighting this.
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Is it? I just seen it come up on my tl, so I thought it was latest information.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Not qualified but if you get really sick from an infection don't you become more vulnerable going forward? Remember that British nurse that got Ebola, she had a big relapse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_Cafferkey

It was found in 2015 that, after an apparent complete cure, with the bloodstream, saliva and organs such as the liver free of the Ebola virus, it can linger on in parts of the body not protected by the immune system, including fluid in the eye, the central nervous system and, in men, the testes and semen.[15]
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I thought it was the opposite? Do you not build immunity? But I do remember that case now that you mention it. So we can assume then, that this doesn't completely leave your body, leaving a person open for a relapse.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
Is it? I just seen it come up on my tl, so I thought it was latest information.
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No worries, it's easily done as the tweet didn't clarify it, but the dateline is 27 February. It's still concerning, obviously.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
Do we have anyone on this forum anywhere near qualified enough to tell us as to why this reinfection could be happening? To try to make sense of this? I get the false negative testing part, obvious that can happen, but what about the fact that the people in question have seemingly recovered, then to only have a sudden onset of symptoms? I find it strange that more is not being made of these developments over the past few weeks. Seems like an important detail just to put down to false negative results.
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It's not completely unheard of. Epstein-Barr infections can behave that way, too.
 
redshaw said:
France 3661 79 deaths

Spain 5232 133 deaths.



Can you tell us what Germany is doing to contain it? Not read of anything significant, both doing localized school closures, both eventually called the football off having just played with full crowds, Leipzig Spurs for example.. With Merkel saying 70% of German could be infected, that would be a lot of deaths as well and she's advised not to close the borders. Maybe you could include Germany in your uncontrolled spread jibe?

Edit: Just reading most schools closing now?
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Schools and nursery schools closed till April 20th.
Most Bars and Clubs closed.
All events with attendance of 100+ are canceled.
Visits to retirement homes massively restricted.

That should limit tempo of the spread a bit, so the health care system can cope with those that need ICU treatment, resulting in less deaths hopefully.
 
Classical Mechanic said:


This is my question on the WHO approved method. What happens to economies if we go into a cycle of complete shutdowns for 18 months whilst we wait for a vaccine? This will result in mass business closures and mass job losses. This will have a massive societal impact and cause significant social unrest that I just don't think the WHO's singular vision has any comprehension of. They are not in the business of running economies and societies.

You could view the UK approach as utilitarian in that its seeking to protect the society as a whole whilst accepting that loss of life cannot be avoided and is a trade off for that. Of course this is unpalatable for many but the alternative could reap much worse consequences e.g. mass poverty, social unrest and governments becoming more authoritarian to maintain control.
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Excellent post.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
I thought it was the opposite? Do you not build immunity? But I do remember that case now that you mention it. So we can assume then, that this doesn't completely leave your body, leaving a person open for a relapse.
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I'm guessing it depends on your own immune response. Immunity is basically your bodies ability to detect an invader/pathogen quickly enough.
 
Ubik said:
No worries, it's easily done as the tweet didn't clarify it, but the dateline is 27 February. It's still concerning, obviously.
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Yeah, my bad. Still the fact that the virus can seemingly linger in a person after they recovered is concerning, if that is indeed what's happening.
 
If the economy doesn't matter at all and health is all important, why don't the same people advocate for a lockdown every flu season? Lockdown technques for too long would likely kill more people than they would save due to the massive spike in unemployment and hit to the economy.

Where do people think the money to fund the NHS comes from?
 
nickm said:
Expert comment about herd Immunity.
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Nick. I'm not necessarily for or against what the government proposes (I have nowhere near enough knowledge to know what's best) but the first expert in your link seems to assert that "the delay techniques promoted by the government are likely to achieve this aim [of flattening] the peak so that those people who suffer the more severe forms of the disease are able to be cared for properly." He also asserts that "by winter" uninfected people will be in a minority.

As I understand it that means he (and Vallance?) thinks the NHS will be able to cope with around 60% of the population being infected in the next 9 months. That equates to just under 40m people. According to the data 5% of those need access to an ICU. The NHS currently has 6.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people. That equates to just under 4500 beds.

Assuming an ideal distribution and an ICU stay limited to just one day per person that many people would require around 7,400 beds with associated staffing in order for the NHS to cope. This itself assumes that literally none of the ICU's are or will be in use for other things. Currently 80% of them are.

As far as I can see there is no world in which the ambition of infecting 60% of the UK population by Christmas can be realised without completely overwhelming current NHS capacity. The only way, offered by expert 2 in your link, would be to lower interactions such that the rate of infection trends substantially lower, but this would seem to involve indefinitely maintaining social distancing models that the government seems to believe are impossible.
 
JulesWinnfield said:
If the economy doesn't matter at all and health is all important, why don't the same people advocate for a lockdown every flu season?

Where do people think the money to fund the NHS comes from?
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There's vaccines for the flu to protect the elderly and weak
 
What are the dangers of walking the dog in these conditions? I am now arguing with someone on Facebook about it. I say slim to none as long as you are not walking in crowded areas.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
Yeah, my bad. Still the fact that the virus can seemingly linger in a person after they recovered is concerning, if that is indeed what's happening.
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Well HIV is the same from everything I know (someone please correct me if I'm wrong). The challenge with viruses is that they invade your cells, and if it's not active in your cell it can just stay there dormant. But luckily, the cell itself will detect that and commit cell suicide (apoptosis)
 
Virgil said:
Excellent post.
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I'm bewildered that nobody is actually thinking about the bigger issues at hand. I guess it's the privilege of most people here either being financially secure or living in one of the rich, developed countries.
 
Sarni said:
What are the dangers of walking the dog in these conditions? I am now arguing with someone on Facebook about it. I say slim to none as long as you are not walking in crowded areas.
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It's fine, just generally keep your distance from larger groups of people if you're really paranoid.
 
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