That's the worry, I don't have data or information that the government has to justify their decisions. But it was common sense and obvious that mass gathering were going to be cancelled especially sport, yet the "scientific experts" and Boris Johnson didn't expect it so soon?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Isn't having some form of control better than having none?
Everything is an assumption. We have no idea whether plan A, B or C will work but what we know is that some countries have implemented measures that seem to be working for now.
I need a break from this. It's consumed me for months.
They should be put up in dedicated hotels and kept separate from the population.
That is what you do if you want to minimize the spread.
If you want to maximize the spread, you do as you applaud, and tell people to stay home with their families and not contact a doctor at all if they are ill.
Which is why we need to do a lot more testing. UK isn't even rushing to test symptomatic people. If South Korea can do it, UK could to. They could at least do a hell-of-a-lot better than they currently are.
On that part there are no conflicting reports, it goes from no symptoms(or obvious symptoms) to respiratory difficulties after a dozen of days but everyone is seemingly contagious.
See this is interesting. We are now the subject of a massive experiment. A medical and social one, live on air so's to speak; and life and death depend on it. I know the British advice is this delay idea, that the peak is 12 or 14 weeks off. In Ireland they have closed schools, started the social distancing thing, etc. I presume our experts have concluded that the peak is nearer. That the virus is in our community already. I have seen a few expert commentaries, but critics of the British government say there are political and economic influences that are swaying the approach; i have no idea if this is true.
Herd immunity. Gosh. Obviously in six months or whatever we will know who won this particular argument.
Frightening.
While thats scary, everything he said makes perfect sense and it should have been done across the board in every country somehow
Didn't the WHO say that Covid-19 is less contagious than other viruses? I'm sure they also stated that it wasn't asymptomatic - something I think the experts in the UK also discovered.
Survival instinct is a beautiful part of Nature, and should never be held against anyone.
I care a great deal about innocent old people who've contributed taxes to the NHS for multiple decades now being used as a human shield for a Tory party's Economy. It's disgusting.
I don't have that many old relatives that I regularly see, but this 'policy' makes me (and many others) seethe, and I have nothing to gain from that feeling.
Just like my Survival Instinct - it's completely natural.
P.S - I'm the same guy who created the 'Boomers thread' in the General and was accused of Ageism btw. People caring about other people, yet hoping that they themselves are O.K isn't mutually exclusive, you can do both.
Yawn.
Maybe the science behind what the UK is trying to do is correct, maybe they have this figured out in a way that nobody else has. Maybe the government/PM defined by arguing that Brexit was an economically viable idea and ignoring facts that don't suit them have become sombre, fact-based pragmatists in the face of this disaster.
But if my country was pursuing a policy that involved deliberately allowing a huge portion of the country to get infected then I would be concerned. Even more so if my country was an outlier in doing so and organisations like the WHO were against the idea. And even more so if my government was led by a Tory party who have shown consistent disregard for the most vulnerable in society, both historically and more recently.
This thread is good explanation of UK strategy. Risky as feck but there is a certain logic to it. The biggest problem will be testing. Without that it all falls apart.
You've come across, endlessly, as someone who cares deeply about the right thing being done.
And you've shown integrity throughout this whole thing.
You're the kind of person I'd want in charge of caring for vulnerable people - and I really mean that.
Not sure what your job is, but if you don't already, you should think seriously about working within charity or working with vulnerable people.
Indeed, maybe this crisis will help many people realize their true calling.
Of course, fair comment. But listening about all of it, and few days later watching the statistics that it's mostly 80+ year olds dying will make anyone feel bit better and calmer, at least anyone who is bellow that age and who doesn't have any family near that age, anyone saying different is lying to himself.
If their plans works(With given the record of the tories, it doesn't look good)that's still a lot of dead people and it's going to be a lot of old people who will make up these numbers, yet I posted a poll yesterday showing most over 65''s think the government is doing a good job!
dystopia here we come!
I think they are following different assumptions, that's all. The WHO assumption is the spread of this can be controlled hence their advice to knock it quickly. Whether that is correct for something that spreads like a cold or the flu, is still untested. The UK assumption appears to be that because it spreads like a cold or the flu, everyone is going to get it eventually. So how do you best protect high risk people given limited health resources.
We will have to see.
Great clip, but really cant see this separation from families happening in the west . Also , as he notes the Chinese had the whole infrastructure and plan already in place.
From the various experts talking over the last weeks, this is the key whatever the approach you take and it's what most countries have fallen far short on so far.
Ah shit, apologies if you're getting bored. Here's some stimuli to keep your stiff upper lip feeling spiffy old chum...
Keep up the good fight.
I couldn't recommend Children Of Men enough. Really is Cuaron's best.
Boris Johnson is either a strategic genius navigating us through this crisis without being blown off course by the changing winds of public opinion, or else he has got all this badly wrong and steering us into a catastrophic iceberg. The truth is no one knows which is true.
Another tweet from him. Doubt he's been kidnapped
That's not logistically possible. It was the first thing that the authorities tried when they set up quarantine locations in Milton Keynes and the Wirral.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51420320
The numbers now are too great for the country to keep up with demand.
The China stats tell us that infections in the home are the greatest risk for spreading the disease. Covid-19 isn't aerosolised, so to catch it you either need to
- be close in close proximity with somebody for a long time
- touch a surface they've touched and then put your hand to your face without washing your hands
If we close everything down right now, the first bullet point is inevitable because everyone who's asymptomatic will go home and spend all day in close proximity with their loved ones.
But if we don't close everything down right now, the second bullet point can at least gives us a fighting chance to slow down the spread as long as we practise social distancing and proper hand washing. Then they'll spend less of the day in close proximity with their loved ones.
Obviously, if you're symptomatic, you self-isolate at home (which includes isolating from family). That's a different thing altogether. Maybe not workable for everyone, but the only realistic alternative to everyone going to hospital.
Eventually, the UK will enter the next phase of the plan: https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-a-guide-to-what-you-can-expect-across-the-uk
At that point, school closures will happen (with the all risks pointed out above coming back into play). But the numbers are currently too low to take that risk:
| Country, Other | Total Cases | New Cases | Total Deaths | New Deaths | Total Recovered | Active Cases | Serious, Critical | Tot Cases/ 1M pop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 17,660 | 1,266 | 1,439 | 14,955 | 1,328 | 292.1 | ||
| Norway | 1,034 | +38 | 1 | 1 | 1,032 | 27 | 190.7 | |
| Switzerland | 1,375 | +236 | 13 | +2 | 4 | 1,358 | 158.9 | |
| S. Korea | 8,086 | +107 | 72 | +5 | 714 | 7,300 | 59 | 157.7 |
| Iran | 12,729 | +1,365 | 611 | +97 | 4,339 | 7,779 | 151.5 | |
| Denmark | 827 | +23 | 1 | 826 | 2 | 142.8 | ||
| Spain | 6,023 | +791 | 191 | +58 | 517 | 5,315 | 272 | 128.8 |
| Bahrain | 211 | +1 | 60 | 151 | 1 | 124.0 | ||
| Qatar | 337 | +17 | 337 | 117.0 | ||||
| Sweden | 941 | +127 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 938 | 2 | 93.2 |
| Estonia | 109 | +30 | 109 | 82.2 | ||||
| Slovenia | 141 | 141 | 4 | 67.8 | ||||
| Austria | 602 | +98 | 1 | 6 | 595 | 1 | 66.8 | |
| Belgium | 689 | +130 | 4 | +1 | 1 | 684 | 2 | 59.4 |
| China | 80,824 | +11 | 3,189 | +13 | 65,572 | 12,063 | 3,610 | 56.2 |
| France | 3,661 | 79 | 12 | 3,570 | 154 | 56.1 | ||
| Germany | 3,953 | +278 | 8 | 46 | 3,899 | 9 | 47.2 | |
| Netherlands | 804 | 10 | 2 | 792 | 45 | 46.9 | ||
| Finland | 215 | +60 | 1 | 214 | 38.8 | |||
| Singapore | 200 | 97 | 103 | 11 | 34.2 | |||
| Kuwait | 104 | +4 | 5 | 99 | 4 | 24.4 | ||
| Israel | 164 | +21 | 4 | 160 | 3 | 18.9 | ||
| Hong Kong | 138 | +6 | 4 | 78 | 56 | 4 | 18.4 | |
| Greece | 190 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 185 | 2 | 18.2 | |
| Ireland | 90 | 1 | 89 | 6 | 18.2 | |||
| Cyprus | 21 | +7 | 21 | 17.4 | ||||
| Portugal | 169 | +57 | 2 | 167 | 10 | 16.6 | ||
| Czechia | 150 | +9 | 150 | 2 | 14.0 | |||
| Latvia | 26 | +9 | 1 | 25 | 13.8 | |||
| Lebanon | 93 | +16 | 3 | 1 | 89 | 3 | 13.6 | |
| Albania | 38 | +5 | 1 | 37 | 2 | 13.2 | ||
| UK | 798 | 11 | 18 | 769 | 20 | 11.8 |
Lots would be impacted, absolutely. But I think you're maybe over egging the pudding. Schools close regularly every single year. For 6 weeks at a time over the summer. Critical services manage to not grind to a holt during these periods.
Not bored, just not impressed with the quality of your shrill arguments so far.
When do the daily UK figures usually get published ?
that’s amazing. If that’s what a lockdown really means we’ve got no chance of it. And it shows the futility of what some countries are trying to achieve by closing a few schools
Yeah I agree actually.
But I feel that the calmness, or sense of feeling somewhat reassured within the young(ish) is revealing some as borderline Eugenic fanbois.
The older Generations within this country (and everywhere) deserve so much better than this.
Imagine being over 70 and listening to these 'strategies'... or being over 70 and reading through a lot of this thread. They, rightly, must be becoming absolutely terrified.
I guess my point was, of course we all hope first and foremost that we are ok ourselves. But the vulnerable need and deserve to be protected from this revolting approach by the Government and their shithouse, Tory-boy followers.
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Its not logistically possible without significant funding investment. Get it right.
Because if we wanted to, we could.
So now we are back to aquare one.
You think the government are doing a great job.
You also think that making people self isolate with their familes is wanting propel to die.
The government advocate self isolating with familes.
I'm still waiting for one of you to point out a single incident in the history of the human race where we have developed a herd immunity to a virus like this without a vaccine, by the way.
We,ve tried the 'let them all get it' approach before.
With Polio, with Rubella, and you know what happened.
People just kept dying. Until we had a vaccine.
Annually.
No I don't.
No they didn't.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
China has had around 90,000 cases 3000+ deaths from 1.45 billion people. Why are people thinking its going to infect 60-70% of the worlds population? That would be around 90% of everyone else who is not in china. What evidence is there for this assumption?
I am surprised people aren't using the data of China for predicting likely effects elsewhere as they are 1-2 months ahead of everyone else. They are also the worst place affected in terms of growth rate, raw numbers etc never mind the fact that we have all be forewarned by them so if anything I would expect every other countries to fair better. What am I missing here?
I am surprised people aren't using the data of China for predicting likely effects elsewhere as they are 1-2 months ahead of everyone else. They are also the worst place affected in terms of growth rate, raw numbers etc never mind the fact that we have all be forewarned by them so if anything I would expect every other countries to fair better. What am I missing here?
Always go early, people with kids are unlikely to be there, the old people won't be able to use their bus passes till after 9 and others will be going to work.
650 square foot.
One bathroom.
I've told you this, that is the average UK house.
Do you think that those measures are practical given the reality of how most people live?
Because if it isn't, then the advice is not really helpful is it?
I'm still waiting for that one incident of herd immunity being developed without vaccine by the way.
Just one.
Apologies for insulting your Tory masters.
Press ignore if my 'lefty humanitarian ranting' bothers you so. I'll be doing the same to you.
I am not sure about 60-70% numbers but cases are relatively low in China because of the actions they taken to stop it which some countries won't do due to economic reasons.
I am not from UK, but I agree, your point should stand for other countries too.
As a neutral, I actually find this UK plan sickening and very selfish. It's actually not even a plan, they change their approach every day from what I have seen, and later describe it as some risky plan that they are taking. But anyway they are risking the lives of many people because they didn't react on time. I seriously doubt they are doing it on purpose, otherwise I am sure they would still allow public events such as football games where teams that aren't already affected will play, but they realised it's dangerous after all. I mean, just few days ago they let Liverpool and others play with full stadium despite knowing what will happen, I think they just hoped it won't spread more than anything else.
China's infection rate will skyrocket again when they lift the lockdown. Covid-19 is too infectious corner into isolated pockets and eradicate.
They might get rid of the infection in places, but it'll boomerang back from somewhere else in the world.
It's already got from China to Rwanda. There'll be nothing to stop it from getting back in a few months' time.