im trying to make the point in a different way since you didnt understand the first time
The Trump Presidency | Biden Inaugurated
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im trying to make the point in a different way since you didnt understand the first time
Your point fails, because you are basing it on the assumption that any conflict will instantly escalate to nuclear weapons flying into and out of the Korean peninsula. It's a possibility, but the worst case one.
thats a fair point but i think it assumes we have rational actors on both sides. which i dont think we can take for granted
Kim Jong Un has yet to fire upon the 2nd Infantry Division. He’s been in power since 2011.
Seems awful rational to me.
Right
By the way, just to be clear, I’m laughing at you, not with you.
back at you buddywhat a shock that they assert a justification for their own mission
can you imagine for a minute that the army saying "we are a deterrent" doesnt neccesarily mean they are a deterrent? can you consider what their motivations and interests are?
Can you imagine for a minute that you’ve actually been factually wrong about multiple things in this current conversation?
sure. heres your chance to point them out.
I’ve already done that, too.
well you really turned me around there. im convinced
Am I supposed to quote the entire conversation into one post for your convenience?
Do you think that's going to matter to Trump? Not even a minute. He'll just make up some bullshit and the sheep will believe.
But I think this is still better from Trump, he has got North Korea to the table. It's only good if NK agrees to get rid of it's nuclear weapons.
Yes. Trump is literally a wizard. He just says shit that is untrue, and enough people believe it, it becomes true, even when its not. It's either, Trump is a wizard, or his supporters are retarded, but since my mum taught me to be polite and kind to people, let's go with the wizard thing.
I read your post a couple of times and I still don't know if you were agreeing with me or being sarcastic. English isn't my first language so I'll just assume you agree with me.
I'm agreeing with you and being sarcastic
Yes, he will make shit up, yes it won't matter to his base.
I'm agreeing with you and being sarcastic
Yes, he will make shit up, yes it won't matter to his base.
Yes, do agree.
look. if you dont want to have this discussion, feel free to opt out. you asked me to consider that i was wrong about certain things. i said i was willing to consider them. you chose not to. ask yourself what you are contributing to the discussion here. my position is this:
there is a decent chance north korea would like to invade south korea. it is necessary to have some sort of deterrent in place. the us currently has multiple things that could plausibly be considered deterrents. the main examples are our nuclear weapons, first strike capability, and 25,000 troops in south korea. i think that the nuclear weapons and first strike capability are enough of a deterrent that maybe we dont need 25,000 troops stationed permanently halfway around the world. i think we could remove all of the troops and still have an effective deterrent. i think we could remove most of the troops and still have an effective deterrent. i think we could remove all troops except for a small force necessary to train the south korean military and withdraw them over time. i think we could use the money we saved from this drawdown in military expenditures (and military expenditures in other areas also) and use them to fund the social safety net and to help give people food and housing and healthcare.
as far as i can tell, your postion is this: north korea hasnt attacked in 65 years so we have to maintain exactly what we are doing and not deviate from that in any way.
so to try and steer this to a more productive conversation, here are some questions to you. what did you think when nixon withdrew 20,000 troops from south korea? why didnt the north koreans overspill their borders and chaos then reign in our rael? what did you think when carter tried to reduce us troops further? do you think the current situation is better than the situation of 6 months ago? do you think the talks are more or less likely to result in war? what do you think of the fact that a majority of south koreans trust kim's desire to denuclearize and a huge majority of south koreans support the talks?
First off, that’s rich.
Secondly, I’ll answer you, with the caveat that I wasn’t alive during the Nixon or Carter administrations, so I didn’t think too much of it at the time.
Drawing down numbers is one thing. Talking about removing them completely is something altogether different. Nixon essentially reduced the numbers in Korea from 3 divisions to 2. I’m highly skeptical of drawing that number down any lower than 1 full division. Less than that and you don’t have a unit capable of full spectrum independent warfare, and therefore do not have a credible deterrent factor on the ground.
North Korea didn’t invade at that point because a credible deterrent was still there in addition to the fact that Nixon had just normalized relations with Mao. Not to mention the fact that North Korea was focused on recovering from the previous conflict and likely didn’t possess the capability or desire for such an invasion.
I don’t think the current situation is any better than it has been. It might be worse. Kim Jong Un seems to have gotten the better end of this “deal”.
As long as a credible deterrent remains in place, I think the possibility of a resumption of the war remains the same.
The South Korean opinion of these talks changed once they heard about the cessation of training and possibility of US withdrawal from their country...
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/06/12/world/asia/south-korea-trump.html
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I’d generally consider divisions of the US military stationed on a semi-permanent war footing nearby an enhancement to any form of deterrent.
Busy day today so I dont recall where I saw it but i did see somewhere that South Korea pay 50% of the cost. I agree with you that there shouldn't be large US bases in certain locations but they want to expand that military (who else will pay a contractor $100 for a hammer) to the point that the country will tip over.
theres an opportunity cost to maintaining 25k soliders halfway across the world. if the best defense you can offer is an aphorism, maybe we could better spend the money on healthcare or infrastructure or education?
You are right, let's send another 75k, am I right Eboue pal. Hillary would have done it.
Absolutely, the tariffs with Canada are definitely a big losing issue for him, especially in Trump states. If the Dems are smart they will pounce all over this before the mid terms.
some lovely charts. great colours
but u are relying on Americans to be intelligent enough to decipher these and interpret the findings. As can be seen they simply are not.
WTF is this crap.
The dunk in the middle
The dunk in the middle
1) There's no more effective deterrent than the risk of US troops being killed should NK invade. That's one reason SK would want troops to remain - it is a visible sign of commitment and shared endeavour.
2) Nobody is going to believe the word of the US that they would step up and use the deterrent if they had to, if that's all there was left. Especially this administration. America's commitment to its allies is weakening and everyone knows it.
3) There are other reasons why the US has troops in SK. It's part of the strategy to counter chinese power in the region. If the US pulled out of SK, then what - Japan next? The Chinese would see it as a great strategic victory and a further sign of American global decline. And they would be right.
Eboue, follow through the logic a moment. Assuming for a second that NK genuinely would like to invade and reunify Korea. They have one of the largest conventional armies on earth, and the border is within artillery range of Seoul.
So say one day the NK army opens fire on SK defensive positions and marches en masse across the DMZ. Without US conventional forces there, what exactly is the US response? A massive cruise missile and air campaign certainly. It’s not first strike though because by the time that’s set in motion, the NKs are already in SK and fighting their way into Seoul, a city of 10m people. Does a US president realistically order a nuclear strike? On the country right next door to China? That isn’t going to happen.
So you’re left with a savage bloodbath taking place in Korea, with tens of thousands of casualties within the first hours, and the US relying basically on air power to push back a truly vast NK army which will by then be pushing hard into the south.
It’s a nightmare scenario, which is why having a significant US presence there has been essential. You also have to consider the domestic political position in the US. If the NKs invade and face US troops then public support for reinforcing and going in full force becomes easy. If it’s Koreans fighting Koreans, then putting US boots on the ground into the middle of a bloodbath becomes much more of a tough political sell.
Feck my life, you would have to live in Narnia to actually believe any of the bullshit written above. What a load of complete shite, half the lists so called accomplishments aren't actually positives anyway. Thankfully others have debunked this batshit, and after reading the following comments where you say Fox is the only reliable News channel, I can only think either you are just on a fantastic WUM, or you do indeed live in Narnia. Whichever, good luck.
It's so telling yet fantastically hilarious to see that no matter if it's in a pub or on a forum on the internet or during interviews on a news channel on TV, the one constant throughout is Trump supporters all like to brag about his accomplishments and love to shout and scream yet when countered or asked to back their comments up with facts they all either run away, start to blame Hillary, Obama or the Dems or they say they can't be bothered as it would take too long, yet completely missing the point that they have previously spent hours detailing Trump's so called achievements.
Of course the big orange buffoon has made some positive changes and had some success and there is no doubt he is a wet dream come true for some Republicans, but the truth is, he's a fraud. He's a conman completely out of his depth and so sure of himself he thinks he can do and get away with anything he wants. He's fecking things up for the world and especially for the USA and it just astounds me how some people cannot see this or even worse, they actually think what he is doing is good. The selfishness and arrogance in some is as strong as their delusions and refusal to admit that he might actually not be the messiah after all. All I can say is that I hope this all comes to an end very soon before he does too much more damage. The USA's global reputation is in tatters and the worst it has ever been, if Trump isn't careful he will back himself and his country in to such a tight corner and have upset so many of his allies that he will not have anywhere to hide AND have nobody to turn to. Trump has just turned the USA in to a giant whining victim and nobody else is listening or even caring, just getting on with things without him. I've always suspected Trump is very lonely and he actually likes it that way because it helps his persona and helps mirror his approach. He's quickly making the USA a bigger version of him. Trump's America, what a fecking joke, just not very funny for the millions of lives he is going to feck up in the long run.
This is what I've been thinking since this debate began. "First Strike" is a bit ridiculous in this scenario because of the vast, vast array of weapons NK have pointed at SK within artillery range. By the time a US strike could be launched, the NK attack would be well under way.
What was that about Trump being a wizard? He just made NK nukes disappear, apparently.
Give this man a nobel prize.
'Nobody's more humble than Donald J. Trump!'
(Donald J. Trump)
(Donald J. Trump)
Another dig at Obama.
This cnut is going to win a second term whilst immigrant kids are locked in cages. I am so glad I left the states
Proper Eastasia/Eurasia stuff going on right now.
How's no one posted this yet? Genuinely mistook this one for parody.
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