ManUtd1999
Full Member
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2013
- Messages
- 4,803
My take on the summit: I hope that we will see real progress in the weeks and months ahead. I was hoping to see more concessions from NK already, but this is better than nothing. At this stage, I won't criticize Trump and I won't go too far in praising him. It was one good step in the right direction (hopefully), but only one step.
The stock markets did phenomenally well in 2017-- no question about that. However, 2018 has been dismal for the stock markets. For example, there is basically no growth in the S&P this year. In fact, it's lower now than it was at the end of January. Part of this, of course, is a correction after the 22% of last year. But, if we end up having 2-3% this year, then by the end of the second year of the Trump presidency, we will have about 11-12% growth per year in the S&P. That is very good, but not unusual. For comparison, here are the returns during the Obama presidency and the first year of the Trump era:
2017: 21.83%
2016: 11.96%
2015: 1.38%
2014: 13.69%
2013: 32.39%
2012: 16.00%
2011: 2.11%
2010: 15.06%
2009: 26.46% (probably also reflects a rebound from the crash in 2008).
And so what we saw over the past 18 months is not unprecedented at all.
Another point: the budget deficit has increased in 2017 after declining during the 2nd half of the Obama presidency. All of that, of course, before the tax cuts took effect. It will rise even more.
One thing, though: I think that the Obama administration didn't communicate well enough and stress well enough the good numbers that Obama has left (such as the low unemployment rate). Republicans stressed the bad things in 2015-16 (high debt, for example). Trump and many of his followers kept mentioning the good numbers under Trump. Obama and his follower didn't talk about the good numbers as much under Obama. Trump kept tweeting about the stock markets (especially in 2017), and the media covered. Recently, Trump hasn't been tweeting as much about the stock markets, and guess what? The democrats are not talking and the media is silent. The media will wake up only when Trump decides so.
In October 2016, before Trump was even elected, the unemployment rate was 4.5%. This is very consistent with full employment. What happened in the past 1.5 years is just continuation of that trend. Nothing related to Trump, really.The only thing he can partially claim is a strong economy and extremely low unemployment rate, which were both already in motion under Obama but have increased under Trump.
The stock markets did phenomenally well in 2017-- no question about that. However, 2018 has been dismal for the stock markets. For example, there is basically no growth in the S&P this year. In fact, it's lower now than it was at the end of January. Part of this, of course, is a correction after the 22% of last year. But, if we end up having 2-3% this year, then by the end of the second year of the Trump presidency, we will have about 11-12% growth per year in the S&P. That is very good, but not unusual. For comparison, here are the returns during the Obama presidency and the first year of the Trump era:
2017: 21.83%
2016: 11.96%
2015: 1.38%
2014: 13.69%
2013: 32.39%
2012: 16.00%
2011: 2.11%
2010: 15.06%
2009: 26.46% (probably also reflects a rebound from the crash in 2008).
And so what we saw over the past 18 months is not unprecedented at all.
Another point: the budget deficit has increased in 2017 after declining during the 2nd half of the Obama presidency. All of that, of course, before the tax cuts took effect. It will rise even more.
One thing, though: I think that the Obama administration didn't communicate well enough and stress well enough the good numbers that Obama has left (such as the low unemployment rate). Republicans stressed the bad things in 2015-16 (high debt, for example). Trump and many of his followers kept mentioning the good numbers under Trump. Obama and his follower didn't talk about the good numbers as much under Obama. Trump kept tweeting about the stock markets (especially in 2017), and the media covered. Recently, Trump hasn't been tweeting as much about the stock markets, and guess what? The democrats are not talking and the media is silent. The media will wake up only when Trump decides so.
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