Another one bites the dust.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Just a word on how close we got to riding out Delta in the UK.
Hospitalisations were falling. Deaths were falling but more slowly. We got so close to making it through Christmas and into the flu season without it all falling apart.
Then at the start of December you start to see that first glimmer of Omicron kicking in and stalling progress in some agegoups, pushing them up in others.
Edited: fixed the timeline typo in my comments!
Hospitalisations were falling. Deaths were falling but more slowly. We got so close to making it through Christmas and into the flu season without it all falling apart.
Then at the start of December you start to see that first glimmer of Omicron kicking in and stalling progress in some agegoups, pushing them up in others.
Edited: fixed the timeline typo in my comments!
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Omicron is moving fast. It's already the biggest group of cases in London and rising elsewhere (effectively a few days behind the rise in London). Currently it's mostly showing as a massive increase in cases in 20-30 group.
Log graph so you can see the growth more easily (otherwise it just looks like a nearly zero line followed by a sudden wall of new cases)
Nationally trend is showing that cases had started to fall in school age kids and their parents, but the jump in cases in the 20+ group (probably mostly Omicron related) has been very fast:
Boosters helping cases to fall rapidly in older age groups. How much of that will be able to hold onto as Omicron cases rise is one of the great unknowns.
Log graph so you can see the growth more easily (otherwise it just looks like a nearly zero line followed by a sudden wall of new cases)
Nationally trend is showing that cases had started to fall in school age kids and their parents, but the jump in cases in the 20+ group (probably mostly Omicron related) has been very fast:
Boosters helping cases to fall rapidly in older age groups. How much of that will be able to hold onto as Omicron cases rise is one of the great unknowns.
I doubt it. He/She does need to sleep?
I had the same logic from our H&S team. Very diligent team (most of them) and we used to work alongside them, so got included in their Christmas do. I pulled out as I'm already having to travel to another site for a visit Thursday & Friday and didn't want to increase my risk even further. This enabled two of my staff who were going to also pull out. The H&S team all had the same logic 'we will all do tests, it'll be fine'. Seeming to forget the rest of the public and patrons that they'll encounter.
Hospitalisations go down, celebrate the booster. Hospitalisations go up, blame the unvaccinated.
Are you worried about the risk to yourself or the risk of spreading it? If you take a test in the morning and are negative, are you worried about catching it at some point in the day, and then for the virus to multiply at such a rate that you're infectious later in the day?
You have to look at the individuals being hospitalised. In the UK, it's split roughly 50:50 under 60 to over 60. Almost all over 60s in the UK are vaxxed - and hospitalisations in this group are falling, or at least they were until Omicron arrived.
Almost all the under 60s who get hospitalised in the UK are unvaxxed. Most people currently in UK ICUs are unvaxxed, despite being them being a minority of the population.
That's just a fact of life, and death - not a matter for celebration.
The feck are you talking about? I know you’re just trying to WUM but there must be a way to do that without coming across as an idiot?
What? Who said the Christmas do was today? It would have been the weekend just gone.
Edit: Just seen your other post, you're a bit of an idiot, I get it now.
Almost every single person with severe enough Covid requiring level 2/3 care (HDU/ICU) in my hospital at the moment are unvaccinated. Almost exclusively those who are dying from it are unvaccinated. The ones who do have it and are vaccinated are usually either incredibly unlucky (ie they're immunosuppressed due to other factors) or are in for other reasons but happen to be covid positive.
All of the above presents issues with cohorting patients, which in turn will have an impact on decision making for escalating patients care (or not being able to provide that care for some), hospital resources and to be totally frank, staff burnout, morale and fatigue.
I'm nowhere near as aggressive as some on here regarding the unvaccinated. I happen to think in the UK at least and across much of Europe we have an incredibly high vaccine uptake and see that as a cause to be celebrated, rather than something to head bang about for the last 10-15%. Humans are not homogenous and we never have been. To expect pretty much 100% uptake on anything is incredibly unlikely. Nor am I particularly keen to enact some of the draconian measures some seem so keen on for the unvaxxed. I'd say most who are unvaxxed now do not fall into the anti-vaxxer nutter territory and trying to exclude them totally from society is probably not the way to go.
However, it is an unfortunate fact that this tiny proportion of unvaccinated take up a hugely disproportionate amount of hospital resources at present and affect others' care. Patience is wearing thin.
So I'm meant to be getting my booster tomorrow. Going to have to cancel, my eldest has covid, no symptoms. It's running amok at her high school, which has been the best advertisement for vaccination I've seen, they all got their first dose last month. Of the friends of my daughter, the kids that didn't get vaccinated( 4 of them) seem to be suffering terribly. The rest of her friends that did the worse they seem to have so far is a bit of a snuffly nose with the odd one.
The Mrs and I keep testing negative. We will though have to cancel our booster appointment, god knows when we'll get another one. Daughters isolation ends on Christmas eve.
The Mrs and I keep testing negative. We will though have to cancel our booster appointment, god knows when we'll get another one. Daughters isolation ends on Christmas eve.
I thought fullfact.org had dealt with the misinformation that the majority of those hospitalised are unvaccinated? https://fullfact.org/health/economist-vaccination-status/
Do you think so?
My experience is the opposite. Almost everybody I know who is unvaxxed is on Facebook posting memes and will go off on one about it all at the drop of a hat. The ones who were just a little unsure are now satisfied after x billion doses it's not going to kill them and have rolled their sleeve up. That's why I'm more than happy to see Europe ratcheting up the pressure on people to get the vaccine.
Still more likely to be hospitalised with Covid if you're un-vaccinated though.
Hospitalised does not equal ICU admission.
I'm going more by what I've seen in hospital to be fair, as opposed to the facebook echo chambers, where you're much more likely to see people shout about the new world order and great replacement and all this nonsense.
We of course see some of those in the hospital too. In fact, we had an appalling case of a guy in his 30s a few months back with no medical history, not overweight, unvaxxed who had it and arrested in the HDU literally just as his wife walked in to visit him. She would not leave while we were trying to resuscitate and at one point was even trying to record on her phone! Sadly he passed away and someone ran into her in the corridor a while later and she said she still wouldn't get vaccinated. We had another who wanted to treat their relative with herbs and thought we were poisoning them....
However, most are people who are not as wedded to these ideologies and I think genuinely don't get it because they can't be bothered or don't think its going to affect them/ not affect them that severely.
I differentiate between the genuine nutters, who often think Covid/the vaccine are all some big conspiracy. And those who don't get it because they're lazy/ don't think it will greatly affect them/ have a distrust of the medical establishment because of historical (and current) racial prejudices for instance.
Of course I appreciate that the hospitalised cohort may be just as unrepresentative as the FB cohort.
In your hospital, are these unvaccinated otherwise fit and healthy individuals or do they generally have prior medical conditions?
Is hospitalisation not a precursor to ICU admission?
Mixture. Id' say most are 40s-60s, with a smattering of people in their 30s and a few in 70s and 80s (less due to the ridiculous vaccine uptake in that age group).
Most are fit and healthy individuals. Some have diabetes or high blood pressure etc but almost nobody I have seen has been in a condition/ had conditions where I would expect them to be dying in the next year or two otherwise.
This is repeated amongst my colleagues in other hospitals.
*To clarify, because this became a particular rallying cry for the anti vaxxers/ antio lockdown people early on, that we were doing lockdowns etc to save people who were going to die soon anyway.
I do not expect a 40 year old, who's got a bit of a belly and diabetes to be dying in the next year. I don't expect him to be dying in the next decade or two either.
I don't want to sound inflammatory, but you mention that everyone you know who's unvaccinated is posting on Facebook and going on about it all at the drop of a hat etc. Is that not what you're doing, but just doing it on a football forum?
Nah. Now a "New Member". Happens to most who post conspiratorial bullshit and wum in this thread. With that in mind, good day.
Okay, I agree those with diabetes and high blood pressure, or any other pre-existing medical condition should have thought more carefully about getting the vaccine to protect themselves. The emphasis being on protecting themselves. But the push to vaccinate everyone, from the age of 5 upwards now it seems, is, in my opinion, incoherent.
Thanks for this update on how things are looking from the inside. Much appreciated.
I agree with you on the compulsion question as well. For the UK in particular, I'm worried by how easily we could make rules that actually make people who are already suspicious of governments, scientists and even healthcare professionals feel even more suspicious. It's very easy to write a law that actually makes discrimination and social disadvantage worse, rather than helps to tackle the roots of why the distrust exists.
I get the frustration though, and the impatience that some of you professionals must be feeling. Plus personally of course, hypocrite that I am, I'd prefer to be sat in the vaxxed only part of the crowd and only see the vaxxed staff at the doctor's surgery.
This is the specific Covid thread on an anonymous football forum and what I do post on here comes from legitimate medical and government sources, not Twitter or any other unverified sources like Russell Brand. I've never posted a single thing about Covid or vaccines on any of my personal social media accounts, nor do i attempt to convince those unvaccinated people i know to get vaccinated. I'm not qualified to do so.
Did you even read what he said? “Most are fit and healthy individuals. Some have diabetes, high blood pressure etc”
You may not agree with the vaccination of all but it is surely not an incoherent policy? The reason why is surely clear and comprehendible?
No? Unless you're talking in the most literal sense, whereby you must first present to hospital in some capacity before you're admitted to the intensive care unit, in which case obviously.
It goes without saying though that there is a big difference in clinical severity between someone who doesn't get Covid, someone who gets it and is asymptomatic, someone who gets it and is has the sniffles, someone who gets it and is wiped out for a few days, someone who gets it and needs Oxygen in the hospital, someone who gets it and needs a face mask and CPAP and someone who gets it and needs to be intubated and ventilated in the ICU.
Obviously most people with Covid will not reach the final stage. Even most people who are in the hospital will not reach the final stage. Seeing as the vaccines' most important job is to protect against severe disease (an ICU stay, even if you survive it, is traumatic and horrible) and death, with secondary impacts on reducing transmission as a whole and reducing mild symptomatic disease, then looking at ICU figures as opposed to general hospital figures is quite important. And there, the unvaxxed certainly rule.
The other reason the general hospital admission criteria is more difficult to interpret is because as I said, some patients are in with something else, vaccinated and happen to have Covid picked up incidentally. Which means they'll sit on a cohorted Covid ward with no respiratory symptoms at all, being treated for their stroke, heart attack or IBD flare or whatever. They share this ward with other Covid patients who are recovering from their HDU/ICU stay but no longer need such high intensity of care or those who are still in the early stages of disease and could go either way.
They are all counted as hospital admissions with Covid. Realistically though, if you're going to the ICU and you have Covid, its almost never just an incidental finding.
No worries and thanks so much for your constant updates on this thread, undoubtedly one of the most informative series of posts on any topic on this forum. I can't post as much anymore for probably obvious reasons/ follow all the news as thoroughly but I do still read a lot of what you post and its very much appreciated.
Totally agree about making things worse but also totally agree re the hypocrisy. I'm not particularly enthused about being around unvaxxed people/ unmasked people in large groups eithr. And some of these patients genuinely infuriate me.
It is fully approved all over the world and was only every "emergency" approved to speed delivery up in the US because there was a pandemic. No corners were cut. It has been delivered many millions of time now which confirms how safe it is.
Nobody has total freedom. Don't get a driving licence and you can't drive. Don't get a working with children check and you can't work with kids in case you are a kidding fiddler. Etc.
You have choice in all case but there are consequences to choices.
All major vaccinations should be compulsory or rather there should be a consequence for not being vaccinated. We have a Medicare levy in addition to income tax. I'd add 1% for incompletely vaccinated people.
And I can guarantee the data either doesn't mean what you think it does or is just rubbish.
Yes they did. At the last election.
Retroactively? nobody is being asked to be vaccinated in the past.
Fat people cost tax dollars but they aren't potentially collapsing our health system in real time and they aren't infecting, harming and killing others.
You have a choice. You just don't want there to be consequences of that choice.
Again a silly choice and statement. Flu vaccines benefit those with great immune systems.
I have no idea what point you are trying to make.
this whole labelling of tin-foil hat for anyone that doesn’t see eye-to-eye with your beliefs, just know that it (hesitancy/concerns/questions/tin foil/whatever you want to call it) stems from the medical community itself. And that’s how it leaks out to populations. This may be news to you or others but let me tell you, not all scientists/doctors/researchers/regulators agree across the board. They are the ones who question and raise concerns among their own fields and it’s always been the case. Just because what people are seeing (very 1-sided) on mainstream media doesn’t mean the other ‘side’ doesn’t exist. Because it surely does. It for whatever reason doesn’t get the coverage thus most people think, ‘the science is unanimous’, when it’s far from it. So when you jump the gun to throw labels around to people who are being respectful, not idiots, and have concerns or their own reasons (whatever it may be, definitely not anyone’s business other than the person themself…like how it was in the past and common decency not to invade in others personal and private medical history) not to do a certain thing that you or others have, just know that you’re also labelling the same to a portion of the medical community who initiate these discussions…..no offence taken, in fact thank you for your time. I just wanted to make that clear and hope you enjoy your day
You speak in the language of conspiracy theory/antivaxx loons. Mainstream media? Thank goodness Steve on YouTube has revealed the truth. I for one am not at all concerned that his qualifications are mainly in the field of working on the till at McDonald's. Nothing you say is supportable, rational or sourced from a consensus of actual.scientific experts.
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The youtube channel of guy who pranked Manuel from Fawlty Towers, of course! Why trust scientists when you can trust the former presenter of Big Brother's Big Mouth?
Why is Russell Brand unverified? Unverified by whom?
It is comprehensible and clear, but it is, to me, incoherent.
Almost as if there's some correlation.
Crazy situation in London right now. Covid not replacing delta (yet). They’re both surging simultaneously. For the next few weeks it could theoretically be possible to catch the delta variant, then catch omicron straight after. This didn’t happen in SA because their delta wave was basically finished by the time omicron started spreading.
Is it theoretically possible to have viral overload from both strains simultaneously? That sounds particularly shit.
The test and trace app / form they get you to fill in is confusing. I entered my positive test result and it tells me to isolate until the 23rd December, 10 days after I receive my test result (the 13th). They then send me a form to fill in so I can let them contact anyone I may have been around during the days leading up to my positive test so I do. Part of that process is putting in when you started to get symptoms (the 12th) so after I complete the form it’s telling me that I only have to isolate until the 22nd, 10 days after I first started getting symptoms. The app still shows my isolation from my positive test though (the 23rd). I’m going to isolate until the 23rd anyway but it’s confusing that they link the two items but they don’t actually link up in terms of the programming.
I read a case report of someone being infected with two variants at once. I don’t think that necessarily means more severe disease though. I also think the one two punch I mentioned above would end up in a fairly mild second illness. Still a bit shit, I’m sure.
EDIT:Found it.
People need to stop going on Facebook it's gone to the dogs