What other (remotely plausible) strategy is there for any country bar possibly a handful of outliers?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
What other (remotely plausible) strategy is there for any country bar possibly a handful of outliers?
I think it is becoming increasingly clear and will do even more so as time passes that one of the most relevant stats will be morons per million and that the UK and USA are streets ahead.
Nah. Look at the States and how many of them are believing Trump and a continuous stream of lies. When the information channels fail to portray an objective view and/or over a critical part of the populous are indoctrinated or more interested in what fits their narrative or worldview rather than factual/scientific truths, then you get a large portion of people that are unable to make up their own decision and unwilling to reconsider their own views based on new information. This goes both ways.
The same tendencies, regarding the media and a more populistic/Trumpistic governmental public relation strategy, are already happening. It all depends on the ability of the average Englishman to be able to make up his own opinion. You already "failed" with Brexit two times, and you elected an obviously incompetent and morally unscrupulous man as prime minister. So I'm not so sure about England/UK not turning into USA 2.0 within the next 10 years.
How you feeling?
Paris, as in the 75, is a lot more dense than London with 20k inhabitants per square kilometers against 5.6k for London, it's also where everyone in Iles-De-France congregates for work, there are also commuters from other regions and countries. Paris is a relatively small city but it's dense and has a large suburb which is also actually dense because a large part of it is made of forest and fields(lots of cereal producers), so the suburb is made of pockets of densely populated areas. And a bit of trivia Marseille is more than twice as big as Paris, it's also smaller than the city of Nimes.
Better thanks, temperature has come down too so fingers crossed it was something of nothing.
I took the opportunity to bin our trampoline when we moved house after going out for beers with a neurosurgeon who told me it would half the number of paralysed children with spinal cord damage he operates on each year if trampolines were made illegal.
Good stuff man.
This is gonna be a clusterfeck and not really feasible imo. I know they HAVE to rely on common sense from us but I simply don't trust the majority of our people. It feels unnecessary and rushed because of Mother's Day - I don't think anyone would have complained if it was allowed again as from the 19th. I realize I'm in a privileged position though since my mother walks past my house every few days and I go running with my father occasionally - maybe the less fortunate really couldn't bear it anymore and this is a good thing, but I'm skeptical for now.
Luckily they're predicting rain and only 15°C for Sunday, otherwise the BBQ squad would be out in full force.
I feel a bit bad for the prof and his lady friend getting thrown to the wolves.
Agreed. There was no need to reveal the visitor's identity. The press is just absolutely vile in this country.
Doesn't the UK have any press ethics laws or oversight? There's no way anything even remotely like that would fly in Norway.
"At least 46,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 14 countries shows — providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis. "
Area PCT. above normal Excess
deaths− Reported Covid-19 deaths = Difference U.K.
Mar. 14 - Apr. 1755% 31,500 − 20,904 = 10,600 Ecuador
Mar. 1 - Apr. 2282% 9,900 − 842 = 9,000 Spain
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1282% 25,400 − 16,921 = 8,500 France
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1247% 20,600 − 14,266 = 6,400 New York City
Mar. 11 - Apr. 25309% 20,800 − 16,673 = 4,200 Netherlands
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1252% 6,100 − 3,151 = 3,000 Jakarta
March57% 1,600 − 84 = 1,500 Istanbul
Mar. 9 - Apr. 2631% 3,100 − 1,683 = 1,400 Belgium
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1262% 5,300 − 4,500 = 800 Switzerland
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1231% 1,500 − 988 = 500 Germany
Mar. 16 - Apr. 123% 1,400 − 1,330 = 100 Sweden
Mar. 16 - Apr. 1924% 2,100 − 1,998 = 100 Denmark
Mar. 16 - Apr. 194% 200 − 354 = <0 Norway
Mar. 16 - Apr. 12Below normal -100 − 124 = <0
"These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount.
The city has become the epicenter of the outbreak in the United States. More than 27,000 people have died since the beginning of March — 20,900 more than normal, and 4,200 more than have been captured by official death statistics."
Early lockdowns appeared to prevent excess deaths
In a handful of countries, including Norway and Denmark, there has been no clear sign of increased mortality this year. Demographers say this is due in part to a less severe flu season this winter — and because these countries implemented early, severe restrictions to slow the spread of the virus when their outbreaks were smaller and easier to contain.
Denmark announced a nationwide lockdown on March 11 before it had registered a single confirmed death. Norway announced a lockdown the next day, with just one confirmed death. In comparison to neighboring Sweden, which never implemented a national lockdown, Norway and Denmark have each recorded fewer than 500 Covid-19 deaths. Sweden has tallied over 2,500.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
That's an excellent summary. Of course people in denial will not believe any of these but basic grasp of mathematics shows you it's a real and serious issue.
It would pass public interest criteria I reckon.
Jokowi, in my own opinion faces a very daunting task.
I see several problems with lock down:
1. If it's a lockdown, you need punishment or some sort of deterrent along with it. We don't and can't spare the valuable manpower.
2. Jokowi probably sees that the majority of Indonesians actually quite obedient (knowing us very well, I'd say this time we're quite obedient) and he can choose not to enforce the lockdown.
3. If it's a total lock down then the government has to provide food, most Indonesians lives on day to day paycheck, you can't force hungry people to stay at home. The logistic of providing foods is impossible for Indonesia, Jakarta alone has 12 million citizens, the government has no data on the who and where, it's a nightmare.
4. We don't know about behind the screen politics, there are possibility of big corruption with locals and centrals discrepancy on policy on emergency funding. There are also potential imbalance when province A and Province B can't cooperate. I also think that there are parties that wants to use this to incite chaos and champions their own agenda. We don't know whether Jokowi as full support internally to take measures, there could be lobbying inside we're privy to.
5. PSBB sounds better, and there are loopholes on both sides. Enough for it to be practical, and enough for it to scare the masses to cooperate.
6. I'm also guessing lockdowns has it's own legal ramifications. I'm not a lawyer, but I think the wording matters on what constitute as force majeure. If you're forced by the official to close your business, then your contracts would probably can be voided without penalty. Many business would need the proper wording.
7. And there's masses who's scared of virus, but dont want to stop their business because their neighbor hasn't. My friend who opens stores says it's better for it to be official, at least I don't have to worry about losing my customer he says.
And yes, I agree you can't lock down for long, 1-2 months is the max max max you can survive, anything longer than that would be chaos and riots because as real as this virus is, you can only survive 3 days without food. I don't even think I can survive beyond 3 months without defaulting my mortgage etc. Even if physical survival is possible, the financial damages of having no income for 3 months is long lasting.
Particularly given the UK had just recorded the highest death toll in Europe, which you'd think would be a more pressing and newsworthy story to lead with. They had to actively reach past that headline news to go with this side-story.
This is asking people to identify which relatives they like the most, or which mates are their favourites. I can't decide if this is funny or not.
The guy, sure, but plastering the woman's face all over the paper?
Mother-in-law already called the missus to see if we wanted to come by this Sunday (it's Mother's Day), but you have to limit your contact to just the one other family. So if we're going on Sunday, they are our 2 people and we are theirs. No chance we're doing that.
But it creates problems yeah, definitely. Just think of a family with 3 kids all living apart.
Those dallying with folk in the public eye are considered fair game with them, rightly or wrongly.
The population density of Paris is 4 times higher than London's. Madrid has approximately the same population density as London. Grand Paris has a population similar to that of Greater
London and Madrid is about half the size of both.
Regardless, all of these numbers were known prior to the outbreak and nothing was inevitable if the right action was taken. As many epidemiologists (and redcafe FFS) said at the time, social distancing imposed 2 weeks earlier and a lockdown imposed a week earlier would have a saved a great many lives and reduced the total time of lockdown. The government erroneously cited herd immunity and delayed, and here we are.
'See NUDE pix of the immoral Blonde Strumpet who Professor Pantsdown's knobbing! (pages 2-29). Also, more deaths than both World Wars etc etc (page 30, column 27)'
The belief in British grit and graft so visibly breaks down as well when we have to fly over foreign fruit pickers cos our workers aren't up to it.
I remember watching a documentary on that one day, where they gave unemployed Brits a job picking produce or working as a waiter in a curry house or whatnot. If I remember correctly, they all quit.
I'd imagine you'd get similar results here in the realm of "jobs foreigners do".
Jesus. I’ve got a 12ft one in the garden which has become almost like a UFC ring for my 2 lads. Because I can’t get out I’ve been doing my own exercises in it too
i dunno - mass unemployment - work for your benefits etc (probably unworkable due to not enough people living close to fruit farms ) - could see some elements of the conservative party pushing for that
I think it’s the same for Ireland - you have to do a list of people who can visit
So Germany is basically opening everything now. Merkel's just held a press conference. Contact restrictions (1.5 metres) and mandatory masks in public transport and shops will be extended until 5 Jun but all shops are allowed to open (they've done away with the 800 sqm rule) and everything else is up to the states now who can open restaurants, pubs, beer gardens, hotels, cinemas and apparently even brothels. Some states have already announced they will open gastronomy on Saturday. Bundesliga allowed to continue next weekend as well.
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They’re ok if used safely. Supervised and (ideally) one person on them at a time. The danger comes when parents take their eye off the ball. Which I didn’t trust myself not to do!
What’s driving this accelerated return to normal? Are they being encouraged by the lack of cases after first few days out of lockdown?
Where did you read about the list of visitors?
Now I’m doubting myself, it was a few days ago. Will see if I can find it
erm...?
Density only matters so much when you're looking at death totals. Ultimately London as a standalone city is more than dense enough to have an extremely fast spread of the virus. The virus has enough legs to spread from one to another, and when you consider London has 4x more people than Paris, it will have more deaths.
I'm in whole agreement that our lockdown, our closure of flights, our stockpiling among other areas should have been done earlier. However I do think we were likely to have the highest death total in our city as soon as the virus came and we failed to trace the source effectively.
The sun headline is awful. A humiliation. If that were me i would be contacting my lawyer. Doubt much could be done though.
If the sun had said it about the woman there would be a national outcry.
The low numbers but also the state PMs I think. As many know, Germany has a federal system granting the 16 states a lot of autonomy. Merkel in particular however, has been pushing for uniform regulations nationwide during this crisis. This has proven to be impossible with the states announcing new relaxations of the regulations on a weekly basis and the fact that the situation is very different from region to region.
Random question but saw a graph which shows females under 50 are testing positive for corona more than males in that age group . Yet for over 50’s it’s a complete u turn. Why is this?
Gloryhole I imagine ?
Had the same thought!
But I think the first is a federal regulation, the second one is up to the states.
I know it is. At least I and others have the common sense though not to blindly issue UK policy to those abroad and would have the contrition to withdraw any dangerous advice that I mistakingly issued online.
Actually most of the Asian international airports have this since SARs. I'm so used to it that I was very surprised when I don't see it in the US