SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pogue Mahone said:
Agree with a lot of what you say but this bit...



...is not true at all. All the better designed studies give single digit % prevalence. More of an ice cube than an iceberg.

I disagree with your last paragraph too. Early on in this thing there were loads of complaints of fear mongering and we saw British young people crowding pubs when all the countries around the UK were already in lockdown. If we’ve learned anything from the thousands of British people already killed by this virus (with thousands more deaths, young and old, to follow) it’s that it wasn’t taken seriously enough. If we’ve got to a stage where young healthy people are nervous to go to Tescos then that’s great. Because that’s what’s needed to stop another massive surge. Let’s not forget that second peak of the Spanish flu killed more than the first.
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I have tried to educate myself on the science behind it but don;t profess to be any kind of an expert. I read a lot on a specific sub on Reddit which focuses on the debate around the science, rather than posting news stories etc and you're correct, there are issues with the data produced so far, however they do all seem to indicate a general trend in there being many more cases than reported and/or diagnosed. Where that leaves us overall i suppose its too early to tell.

Your latter point is a fair one. My issue is that at some stage in the near future we need a road map out of this towards some semblance of normality because the government cannot support us indefinitely, nor probably for much longer to the extent that it is. Sensible young people may be scared of the virus but they should also be scared of what happens if the economy tanks. The future for us all, and especially for the young would be bleak. The poorest in the country will be the ones who suffer most.

Just to be clear I am not at all suggesting that Lock down be lifted and we let the virus run riot. Clearly measures need to be taken to ensure that the NHS can cope with the demands placed upon it whilst the younger, fitter less at risk members of society are able to get back to work in some form or other.
 
RedRover said:
I have tried to educate myself on the science behind it but don;t profess to be any kind of an expert. I read a lot on a specific sub on Reddit which focuses on the debate around the science, rather than posting news stories etc and you're correct, there are issues with the data produced so far, however they do all seem to indicate a general trend in there being many more cases than reported and/or diagnosed. Where that leaves us overall i suppose its too early to tell.

Your latter point is a fair one. My issue is that at some stage in the near future we need a road map out of this towards some semblance of normality because the government cannot support us indefinitely, nor probably for much longer to the extent that it is. Sensible young people may be scared of the virus but they should also be scared of what happens if the economy tanks. The future for us all, and especially for the young would be bleak. The poorest in the country will be the ones who suffer most.

Just to be clear I am not at all suggesting that Lock down be lifted and we let the virus run riot. Clearly measures need to be taken to ensure that the NHS can cope with the demands placed upon it whilst the younger, fitter less at risk members of society are able to get back to work in some form or other.
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Fair enough. I think we’re on the same page really. I think the initial “fear mongering” was necessary to shock people into a radical change in their behaviour. But it’s all about managed risk from here, so we might need to be a little less cautious.
 
Kag said:
Good post.

The government has a seriously difficult job to do with regards to communicating how to relax the current measures. There are far too many people that have lost sight of reality, and have consumed themselves with this virus, as if it’s the only variable that contributes towards danger and death. I’ve followed the measures, I agreed with them and I understand the severity of the virus, but those people that harbour views relating to “full” or continuous lockdowns are too narrow in their thinking.

Recent reports indicate that there has been a 75% reduction in emergency cancer diagnosis. That’s deeply troubling. You factor in heart attacks, strokes and suicide (which will all increase in light of the incoming economic fallout and probable implementation of austerity) and the effects of lockdown may begin to outweigh the primary impact of the virus.

It’s concerning that expressing this view makes you some sort of pariah, void of all apparent empathy. Given someone has already used the word ‘sociopath’ in response to you, I fear we’re in yet more division within the public. The public will begin to argue about fall out about this, big-style.
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Indeed. I am scared of losing close relatives as I'm sure we all are, bit I'm also scared that I won't have a job or that my daughter's education will be damaged. Its evident that by any sensible reckoning, the idea of people locking themselves up for months and years on end is unrealistic. It is also very clearly not the plan the government has. This is all about keeping the NHS at a point where it can do the best job and save as many lives as it can. What if they can't develop a vaccine? Are we intending to stay locked down forever? Its simply not viable.

People are of course entitled to their opinion. I don't consider myself to be a sociopath. Any life lost to this is tragic but we mustn't lose sight of the bigger picture either.
 
Maticmaker said:
Any lockdown has only one purpose and that is to delay the onset of contagion to a level where the NHS could cope, it is not, as such, about reducing the death toll for old or young. Until some medication, vaccine or other treatments can be found to push back the virus, those affected by the more virulent strains will die, unless their own bodies can fight it off with some nursing help. Older people especially those trapped in care homes and suffering from other medical problems, or simply running out of steam as they age, will have more chance of being infected, and less chance of recovery. This is not a government policy it is a fact of life at this time
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Completely agree.
 
RedRover said:
I have tried to educate myself on the science behind it but don;t profess to be any kind of an expert. I read a lot on a specific sub on Reddit which focuses on the debate around the science, rather than posting news stories etc and you're correct, there are issues with the data produced so far, however they do all seem to indicate a general trend in there being many more cases than reported and/or diagnosed. Where that leaves us overall i suppose its too early to tell.

Your latter point is a fair one. My issue is that at some stage in the near future we need a road map out of this towards some semblance of normality because the government cannot support us indefinitely, nor probably for much longer to the extent that it is. Sensible young people may be scared of the virus but they should also be scared of what happens if the economy tanks. The future for us all, and especially for the young would be bleak. The poorest in the country will be the ones who suffer most.

Just to be clear I am not at all suggesting that Lock down be lifted and we let the virus run riot. Clearly measures need to be taken to ensure that the NHS can cope with the demands placed upon it whilst the younger, fitter less at risk members of society are able to get back to work in some form or other.
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Fair enough. I think we’re on the same page really. I think the initial “fear mongering” was necessary to shock people into a radical change in their behaviour. But it’s all about managed risk from here, so we might need to be a little less cautious.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
Having brainwashed the public into thinking they're going to die if they go to Tesco's with the constant "stay at home" messaging they will simply switch to a different type of brainwashing message that it's ok to go out (especially commuting to work!) as long as we employ social distancing etc. Then people will do that instead, even though the risks are little different.
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I suspect you're absolutely right. There was a bit of early comment this week about there not being a plan in place until Boris spoke yesterday.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
The official death rate in New York State is already 0.12% of its entire population as of right now.
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Slight tangent, but any ideas why Singapore has such a low number of reported deaths vs reported cases? 16 from 17,101.
They're a massive outlier at the moment.

Edit: Qatar too I suppose.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Fair enough. I think we’re on the same page really. I think the initial “fear mongering” was necessary to shock people into a radical change in their behaviour. But it’s all about managed risk from here, so we might need to be a little less cautious.
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Totally agree. We needed a "new normal" for a while and the figures indicate that it's doing its job. Hopefully the way out, whilst unlikely to be without difficulty is as smooth as it can possibly be.
 
RK said:
Slight tangent, but any ideas why Singapore has such a low number of reported deaths vs reported cases? 16 from 17,101.
They're a massive outlier at the moment.
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Not really. All I can guess is that death typically takes 12-14 days on average and the vast wad of those cases have come in the last fortnight or so.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
The official death rate in New York State is already 0.12% of its entire population as of right now.
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Fair point. I don;t understand the science well enough but surely there is the prospect of different figures based on demographics of various places?
 
If you want/need to wear a mask for anything more than 10-20 minutes at a time then I would recommend avoiding the ones that go round your ears.

This is a good guide to make a homemade one

https://www.patreon.com/posts/mrks-no-pattern-35679762

Avoid using shiny ribbon, shoe laces are great. Just needs some fabric and pipe cleaners.

They can be sterilised by going into a very low oven for 20 mins.
 
Looks like with the plan Ireland won't fully reopen til October. No surprises there but still fecking depressing to hear.
 
RedRover said:
You're entitled to your opinion but your reference to Fox News indicates that you've completely missed the point of my post and also completely misunderstand both what I was trying to say. Congratulations.
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I"m not saying i disagree with every word of course lockdown can't go on for years but you've covered all the standard fox news tropes in there and many aren't true or helpful:
  1. Loads already have it anyway - Not true
  2. Death rate no worse than flu - again not true
  3. We don't lockdown for car deaths - i suppose that's true at least
  4. Attack on media for project fear
  5. Only the elderly- Missing a very big demographic of vulnerable, i have a few friends in this
  6. Youngsters have irrational fear they'll die - not true for 99% they just identify a collective good.
 
Smores said:
I"m not saying i disagree with every word of course lockdown can't go on for years but you've covered all the standard fox news tropes in there and many aren't true or helpful:
  1. Loads already have it anyway - Not true
  2. Death rate no worse than flu - again not true
  3. We don't lockdown for car deaths - i suppose that's true at least
  4. Attack on media for project fear
  5. Only the elderly- Missing a very big demographic of vulnerable, i have a few friends in this
  6. Youngsters have irrational fear they'll die - not true for 99% they just identify a collective good.
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Number 5 verges on the psychopathic. And goes well into complete cnut territory.
 
RedRover said:
Indeed. I am scared of losing close relatives as I'm sure we all are, bit I'm also scared that I won't have a job or that my daughter's education will be damaged. Its evident that by any sensible reckoning, the idea of people locking themselves up for months and years on end is unrealistic. It is also very clearly not the plan the government has. This is all about keeping the NHS at a point where it can do the best job and save as many lives as it can. What if they can't develop a vaccine? Are we intending to stay locked down forever? Its simply not viable.

People are of course entitled to their opinion. I don't consider myself to be a sociopath. Any life lost to this is tragic but we mustn't lose sight of the bigger picture either.
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Heard some statistician on the radio say that for most people your chance of dying from Covid 19 is about the same as dying full stop in any given year.
 
RedRover said:
Fair point. I don;t understand the science well enough but surely there is the prospect of different figures based on demographics of various places?
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For sure that has to play a role, as will the co-morbidities present in local populations and access to healthcare. Eyeballing this I think the median age in New York is pushing 37/38, which would be younger than the UK and about average for the US in general.

Last week Cuomo came out and said that around 14% of the state's population likely have or had the disease by 24th April. At that point I think the death rate was about 0.11% of the whole population. Assuming the test is accurate this would put the current IFR at just under 0.8% with 2/3 of New York's visible caseload still outstanding. I'm not sure how accurate the test is though. For one thing there's some talk about many people, especially the young, beating the disease without requiring a large number of antibodies. If that's true then the number of New Yorkers silently contracting it would be substantially higher.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
Not really. All I can guess is that death typically takes 12-14 days on average and the vast wad of those cases have come in the last fortnight or so.
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Yeah makes sense. One to keep an eye on.

Of the countries that have mostly seen off the virus, I've not read strong evidence yet that the fatality rate is significantly below 1%. And as you say NY's rates are high before even accounting for confirmed cases.
 
arnie_ni said:
I don't understand why a government, any government does this kind of thing in regards to anything at all really.

More often than not its found out and the fallout is worse than just being open, honest and truthful in the first place
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Because they have journalists who'll spout their lies for all the world to see and then only clarify the lie weeks later when the fanfare has died down.
 


Summary of Ireland's roadmap.

And the full thing below:

 
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arnie_ni said:
I don't understand why a government, any government does this kind of thing in regards to anything at all really.

More often than not its found out and the fallout is worse than just being open, honest and truthful in the first place
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The fallout tends to be amongst those already unlikely to vote for them anyway with those already onside willing to take the lie. Most only see the headline so it does its job amongst everyone else.

I don't really have an issue with the tactic as much as i do that they're bothering to do it during a pandemic. It just feels a bit pathetic and dirty in the same way as Boris trying to claim success the other day. All about context.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Looks like with the plan Ireland won't fully reopen til October. No surprises there but still fecking depressing to hear.
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What exactly is opening up in Ireland on May 18th? Are restaurants back open? Will the car dealerships be open as i want to buy a new car?
 
Michael Osterholm was asked by a reporter in America about what we can do to stop a second wave in August. He nearly burst out laughing. He said there is nothing you can do other than shut down the economy which would probably be worst.

Unless we find some treatment we are talking another two waves at least.

He even went so far as to say that even with a treatment you will still have transmission. A vaccine is the only way out of this or else 60 percent of the population get infected.
 
10 of the 14 deaths in Azores all from the same nursing home, the only one so far that has been compromised. That's about 20% of its patients, and a number likely to grow since more than half are infected and all old and frail.
 
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