SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Wow, good for Sweden if that's true. I haven't been paying as much attention to Sweden as I thought I would be, it's been quieter than I expected. Given their approach, you'd think media outlets would be all over this situation as they are basically being guinea pigs for a different approach.
The jury is still out on whether they've taken the right approach. As the article says, they have 2194 deaths to Denmark's 422.

As per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ they also have a 70% death rate in their closed cases (as in only 30% of people who've been tested have recovered, 70% have died) vs the global average of 18%. This can be explained away in part by each country recording figures differently, some testing more than others, etc. but regardless, that doesn't look great whichever way you look at it.

They might come out the other side quicker than most, but they're going to have higher death rates than those countries who imposed strict lock downs.
 
When it comes to media silence is always good. If there was a hint of their approach backfiring the media (not to mention the scores of people dreaming of a Draconian lockdown needing whatever material they can find to support their wish) would be all over it.

Sweden have found the perfect balance in my opinion and that will become increasingly evident the longer this goes on (and beyond).



You're definitely right. If it was going tits up there, the media would be all over it as an example of why 'we're doing it the right way'. So the fact we're not hearing much about it shows it's going better than expected.
 
You're definitely right. If it was going tits up there, the media would be all over it as an example of why 'we're doing it the right way'. So the fact we're not hearing much about it shows it's going better than expected.

Good article on Sweden in the NY Times yesterday: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

"A compilation of mortality figures by The New York Times found that many countries were undercounting Covid-19 deaths by the thousands, while Sweden reported just 400 more deaths than expected between March 9 and April 19. "
 
Good article on Sweden in the NY Times yesterday: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

"A compilation of mortality figures by The New York Times found that many countries were undercounting Covid-19 deaths by the thousands, while Sweden reported just 400 more deaths than expected between March 9 and April 19. "


I don't believe any country's covid19 deaths is 100% accurate, some more than others. I suspect Sweden will get somewhat worse, but I need to remember to keep a closer eye on them because it's an interesting situation and they seem very confident about this herd immunity date for Stockholm.
 
Boris's fiancée has had her baby, a boy. I thought it was due in the summer, but there you go. Lots of distractions for Boris right now.

(edit - old news :))
 
Boris's fiancée has had her baby, a boy. I thought it was due in the summer, but there you go. Lots of distractions for Boris right now.

(edit - old news :))



Good for them, I'm glad he pulled through the illness to see his baby born and I'm glad they're well.

But please, let's not have a fecking sickly media circus about how great this is when there are far more important matters at hand. If I see one suggestion of 'clapping for baby Boris' I'm gonna go postal, I swear.
 
Isn't that IFR based on countries who have been reasonably comprehensive in testing and reporting though? The UK numbers are wrong, but we know that - the number of cases is also a massive underestimate (I'd guess by an order of magnitude). But my understanding that the IFR of 0.5-1% was based on places like S Korea where they've been on top of testing and reporting from the start.

It’s estimated everywhere (and IFR can only ever be an estimate) by working out what total number of infections might be, then dividing total deaths by that number. The more extensive the community testing (e.g. South Korea, Iceland) the more accurate the estimated number of infections. I don’t know if Korea is any better than anywhere else at getting the number of deaths correct but this article seems to imply they’re being under-reported across the board.

The big worry here is that we’ve always assumed/hoped that estimates for number of infections are being conservative, so true prevalence is higher. Which would push IFR down. However, if true number of deaths is higher that will cause an even bigger shift, in the opposite direction.
 
As per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ they also have a 70% death rate in their closed cases (as in only 30% of people who've been tested have recovered, 70% have died) vs the global average of 18%. This can be explained away in part by each country recording figures differently, some testing more than others, etc. but regardless, that doesn't look great whichever way you look at it.

70%... don’t be bloody daft man.

It’s timed you binned worldometres man and it’s time people started realising Sweden’s approach for Sweden, was bang on here.
• 5 full weeks of ICU patient numbers not increasing.
• Field hospitals not used.
• Gothenburg and Malmö with just 176 & 68 deaths respectively.
• Stockholm County (2.4m) expecting a 28% infected rate by 1st May.

I’m still awaiting the Italy & Spain situation that was bound to happen according to so many on here. People have been beating this drum since mid-March, many you felt were desperate for Sweden to fail.
Let’s see if post lockdown countries can do as well, I expect now the hygiene & social distancing message and importance of it is out there for all to understand, all of Europe will learn to live with this virus and keep the curve flat.
Many countries just got hit so unexpectedly hard after half term, but it’ll be much better next time around I’m sure.
 
Last edited:
70%... don’t be bloody daft man.

It’s timed you binned worldometres man and it’s time people started realising Sweden’s approach for Sweden, was bang on here.
• 5 full weeks of ICU patient numbers not increasing.
• Field hospitals not used.
• Gothenburg and Malmö with just 176 & 68 deaths respectively.
• Stockholm County (2.4m) expecting a 28% infected rate by 1st May.

I’m still awaiting the Italy & Spain situation that was bound to happen according to so many on here.



It's looking extremely promising man, I for one am very happy for Sweden. I would think most are, but I also think some countries' media were definitely looking forward to the 'told you so' mocking that was to come when Sweden became the next Italy. Fingers crossed it keeps on this way for you!
 
It's looking extremely promising man, I for one am very happy for Sweden. I would think most are, but I also think some countries' media were definitely looking forward to the 'told you so' mocking that was to come when Sweden became the next Italy. Fingers crossed it keeps on this way for you!

How have they managed it?
 
Swedish Ambassador Says Stockholm Expected To Reach 'Herd Immunity' In May

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/8452...n-may-swedish-ambassador-says?t=1588149396231

I don't know whether their approach is working or not but that article is clearly nonsense. The ambassador thinks 30% of Stockholm has immunity. There are almost 1 million people in the city centre. Sweden as a country has only reported 20,000 cases. Even if they were all in the capital, where have the other 280,000 got their immunity from?
 
70%... don’t be bloody daft man.

It’s timed you binned worldometres man and it’s time people started realising Sweden’s approach for Sweden, was bang on here.
• 5 full weeks of ICU patient numbers not increasing.
• Field hospitals not used.
• Gothenburg and Malmö with just 176 & 68 deaths respectively.
• Stockholm County (2.4m) expecting a 28% infected rate by 1st May.

I’m still awaiting the Italy & Spain situation that was bound to happen according to so many on here.
What's your issue with the 70%? The information is gathered from official sources. It can be explained away because the Swedes are only testing those who are already showing serious symptoms, or only testing the elderly, or some other reason, but you can't take the positive official figures and disregard the negative ones.

I completely agree the Swedish approach is much more suitable for Sweden compared to most other countries though.
 
If you understand french a little bit, in France we have this tool and also the weekly reports from Santé public France.

That's great, thanks.

I don't know whether their approach is working or not but that article is clearly nonsense. The ambassador thinks 30% of Stockholm has immunity. There are almost 1 million people in the city centre. Sweden as a country has only reported 20,000 cases. Even if they were all in the capital, where have the other 280,000 got their immunity from?

Maybe just data extrapolation from the amount tested to tested positive across the country and in Stockholm.
 
I don't know whether their approach is working or not but that article is clearly nonsense. The ambassador thinks 30% of Stockholm has immunity. There are almost 1 million people in the city centre. Sweden as a country has only reported 20,000 cases. Even if they were all in the capital, where have the other 280,000 got their immunity from?

They've been banging that drum for a while now with different random figures each week. I'm sure it's as accurate as the last study posted.

Either Sweden is some magic outlier or these assumptions are bogus.
 
This is the other scandal going on - If you reside in care homes or assisted living places you have essentially been pressured to agree on a "Do Not Resuscitate" approach if you catch it. If you live in your own accommodation then you are slightly higher up the pecking order but will still struggle to get an ambulance response. Italy and Spain were swamped and so had to make these sort of hard triage decisions, but the UK had prior notice and should have prepared better. When this is all over there will have to be a complete re-think of social care because people will refuse to put their relatives in care homes when the respective death rates get published.

There are some great privately and publicly run old peoples homes out there, and the sector has been badly let down by the DHSC with the absence of PPE. However the whole "Herd Immunity" approach seems to have created, in some, a culture of being happy to abandon people over a certain age for the sake of the economy. This will not be forgotten and has been totally shown up by New Zealand.

New Zealand;

- Has about 4m people
- Only one City over 500,000 people
- No high density housing
- No mass public transport system
- Its nearest neighbour is a 4 hour flight away
- Has little daily travel that sees people leave their towns and neighbourhoods
- No pub culture
- An almost impossible to appreciate culture for the outdoors
- Very low levels of social interaction in those over 25
- Doesn’t have a single nightclub of the size most would define as a ‘Club’

With regards to just Auckland, a City of 1.5m;

- Walk into any bar in The City at any time of year and you’ll almost certainly find a table and as many chairs as you like.
- Almost everyone drives a personal car
- Many walk to work

Now I’m not suggesting it’s some backwards place that doesn’t have a social side, but it’s so different. It’s a tiny place at the bottom of the world and was uniquely placed to handle it well.

That they have, is still to their credit. I worried for them. They have illnesses like Strep & Rheumatic Fever that still run rampant there. Their healthcare is good, but they had nothing like the capacity needed to control an outbreak. I thought they had a bullseye painted on them, but thankfully Jacinder got shit together early.

I won’t let anyone hold them up as an example of how to do it though. There were elements of luck involved at the outset. Had they had 20 people get off a cruise ship and go back to an elderly community or two, they would have seen many dead there. Some of the things that make it such a frustrating country to live in, have worked to its benefit.

It hasn’t all been down to a well led and coordinated Government response. Though Jacinder and Labour have been close to perfect since their first measures were rolled out. Don’t kid yourself that she could have done that here though.
 
Maybe just data extrapolation from the amount tested to tested positive across the country and in Stockholm.

It’s based on their mathematical model from the 2.5% bearing positive virus test in March.
Now they have the most accurate antibody test in World (Karolinska say) I suspect they’ll know very soon if that model is close or way off pie in the sky bullshit.
 
Maybe just data extrapolation from the amount tested to tested positive across the country and in Stockholm.

It's risky to rely on that number if that's how they've calculated it, by extrapolating samples. Other countries have already shown the prevalence of the virus varies wildly between communities even in neighbouring areas.
 
It’s based on their mathematical model from the 2.5% bearing positive virus test in March.
Now they have the most accurate antibody test in World (Karolinska say) I suspect they’ll know very soon if that model is close or way off pie in the sky bullshit.

So what are the variables in Sweden that make such an approach impossible in other countries?
 
Why do you say they didn't need to? Honest question, you will know a lot more than me.

You only need to do something if you have a big cluster within your borders and make sure that it doesn't go from one region to the other. Sweden didn't had a big cluster when most European countries who had at least one decided to shut their borders which means that the virus was mainly stuck where he already was. And since Sweden isn't a densely populated country, the cluster in Stockholm was manageable.
 
So 4 weeks of covid19 sick leave followed up by 2 weeks of paternity leave!

Am sure Boris won’t take the paternity leave but both these distractions are physically and emotionally exhausting, especially for a PM.

Am not blaming Boris for these coincidences of events but we really need his head in the game right now. UK is so fcuked!
 
You only need to do something if you have a big cluster within your borders and make sure that it doesn't go from one region to the other. Sweden didn't had a big cluster when most European countries who had at least one decided to shut their borders which means that the virus was mainly stuck where he already was. And since Sweden isn't a densely populated country, the cluster in Stockholm was manageable.


Thanks, man.
How is it looking in France at the moment, from your point of view? Is there now light at the end of the tunnel?
 
I don't know whether their approach is working or not but that article is clearly nonsense. The ambassador thinks 30% of Stockholm has immunity. There are almost 1 million people in the city centre. Sweden as a country has only reported 20,000 cases. Even if they were all in the capital, where have the other 280,000 got their immunity from?

30% is maybe a little high, but high 20% likely to have been infected and therefore have immunity I think is the rough number.
 
Thanks, man.
How is it looking in France at the moment, from your point of view? Is there now light at the end of the tunnel?

Thnigs seems to be going well, the regions that were hit are seemingly recovering and the ones that weren't hit in March haven't seen any new cluster.

30% is maybe a little high, but high 20% likely to have been infected and therefore have immunity I think is the rough number.

The problem being that we don't know if anyone has immunity or the long term consequences of an infection. This is probably the part that irks me the most, politicians and pseudo-scientists who want to draw weak conclusions instead of simply observing something that clearly no one understand yet.