SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

There is no evidence that there is any sort of long term immunity gained from combating this virus. 'Herd immunity' is a hell of a big risk without that knowledge.

If there isn't any long term immunity, you've basically fecked all the old people and still have nothing to show for it...
 
Stats from the Sutton Trust as reported on Newsnight.

30% of Pupils from Middle Class families are taking part in online lessons everyday.
57% of pupils from Independent Secondary Schools are taking part in daily online lessons.
16% of pupils from Working Class families are taking part in daily online lessons.

50% of Private schools are getting work handed in
27% in the most advantaged State Schools are getting work back
8% of the least advantaged State Schools are getting work back

33% of the Most deprived Schools say their Pupils have no access to the equipment to learn online

These school closures will be devastating for the social mobility of a whole generation.
 
There is no evidence that there is any sort of long term immunity gained from combating this virus. 'Herd immunity' is a hell of a big risk without that knowledge.

If there isn't any long term immunity, you've basically fecked all the old people and still have nothing to show for it...

Trying for herd immunity without a vaccine has many risks. It is most likely that symptomatic infections produce antibodies and that this will give some degree of immunity for 1-3 years. Likely but not confirmed.

We don't know if mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic infections will have produced sufficient antibodies to produce future immunity. We really just don't know at this stage.

We don't even know if the Ro is 3 or 5 yet. And if the higher figure this means we will need a HIT of over 80% and I wouldn't want to see the death toll if we got there without a vaccine.

That said a vaccine is again likely but not assured and the time frame could be anything from 12 months to 5+ years plus a year for worldwide manufacture and distribution (and factor in the anger and recrimination caused by the US or China or whoever competing for the first shipments).

Caution is the best option at the moment. especially in countries like the US and UK who made such a total arse of their initial response and have far from controlled circumstances.
 
Stats from the Sutton Trust as reported on Newsnight.

30% of Pupils from Middle Class families are taking part in online lessons everyday.
57% of pupils from Independent Secondary Schools are taking part in daily online lessons.
16% of pupils from Working Class families are taking part in daily online lessons.

50% of Private schools are getting work handed in
27% in the most advantaged State Schools are getting work back
8% of the least advantaged State Schools are getting work back

33% of the Most deprived Schools say their Pupils have no access to the equipment to learn online

These school closures will be devastating for the social mobility of a whole generation.
That is very low indeed in all categories. Massively lower than in Australia even in the more deprived areas. More government defunding no doubt.
 
Hmmm, not really seeing the value of using Z score (rather than something more directly correlated to the actual numbers of excess deaths) there - the FT's briefing seems more intelligible really - https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c. Maybe someone can explain why using the Z score is statistically helpful.

I do agree with the central premise though - we need to look at excess deaths to get a serious idea of how we're doing. "Covid on the death certificate" isn't enough of a guide given the lack of testing in the community and the numbers dying without hospital treatment.

Dredging up old memory so probably wrong but aren't z scores good for comparing data on 2 different normal distributions so (I'm assuming) good for comoaring nwo with other non-Covid years?
 


The government banned evictions for any reason, hasnt he at the very least broke the law here?
[/QUOTE]
Apparently there’s a loophole if you’re a lodger with a live-in landlord, not the same protection
 
The graphs don't look as scary otherwise. People just use whatever stats they want that fit their agenda. The entire thing reeks.

"I was hesitant to post this" no he wasnt, the minute he had created it he was already in the middle of posting it.

I'm not sure why you'd choose to comment on this because you clearly don't understand what you're commenting on do you?
 
Stats from the Sutton Trust as reported on Newsnight.

30% of Pupils from Middle Class families are taking part in online lessons everyday.
57% of pupils from Independent Secondary Schools are taking part in daily online lessons.
16% of pupils from Working Class families are taking part in daily online lessons.

50% of Private schools are getting work handed in
27% in the most advantaged State Schools are getting work back
8% of the least advantaged State Schools are getting work back

33% of the Most deprived Schools say their Pupils have no access to the equipment to learn online

These school closures will be devastating for the social mobility of a whole generation.
No, the fact that the Tories have for decades under resourced public schools will contribute more to kids getting left behind than closing schools for a couple of months
 
No, the fact that the Tories have for decades under resourced public schools will contribute more to kids getting left behind than closing schools for a couple of months

Two things can be true at the same time can't they?

You can argue that schools are under resourced and closing them for a few months really doesn't help matters.

The data also proves that it's the pupils who need a good education the most who are getting left behind by school closures.
 
Two things can be true at the same time can't they?

You can argue that schools are under resourced and closing them for a few months really doesn't help matters.

The data also proves that it's the pupils who need a good education the most who are getting left behind by school closures.

Tory 101 - feck the poor then blame them for their own situation.
 
Erm?

Herd immunity is the aim but unless we want mass death the only way most places can realistically get that is a vaccine.

The aim is to not get sick. Pursuing a herd immunity strategy whereby you allow 80% of the population to contract the virus would result in countless death from the disease and from lack of beds in ICU - was stupid.
 
The aim is to not get sick. Pursuing a herd immunity strategy whereby you allow 80% of the population to contract the virus would result in countless death from the disease and from lack of beds in ICU - was stupid.

I agree you don't want to get herd immunity through letting the virus run rampant but herd immunity is still the aim. With a vaccine. Without one - I don't really want to think to hard about that one.
 


If true, IFR could be much higher than the 0.5 to 1% often talked about.


There will be uncounted Covid deaths, other deaths due to things like people not seeking medical help as often/in time, more drink/drug/suicide deaths maybe but on the other hand I'd say crime,/gun deaths, road accident deaths and flu deaths will be down. And other things I didn't think of.

On balance my guess is that the as yet uncounted Covid deaths will outweigh the other factors - I guess we will see in due course.
 
Todays the first day they will include deaths outside hospital. Will they give us a breakdown of the figures, i.e deaths in hospital, deaths at home, deaths in care homes?
 


The author of the Sunday Times story that the government responded to said the same about Cummings back in March, that he had been the most zealous advocate for lockdown. Though only after they had changed course from their initial strategy, during which time his attitude was characterised as "herd immunity, protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad."
 
Is anyone else getting really fecking bored of these sickly sweet feel good stories filling up the news at the moment? Well done you’ve got one leg and walked around your living room 1000 times and got 600 like on Facebook now feck off.
 
Is anyone else getting really fecking bored of these sickly sweet feel good stories filling up the news at the moment? Well done you’ve got one leg and walked around your living room 1000 times and got 600 like on Facebook now feck off.

Aye, every man and his dog doing pictures of that Tom fella.
 


If true, IFR could be much higher than the 0.5 to 1% often talked about.


Isn't that IFR based on countries who have been reasonably comprehensive in testing and reporting though? The UK numbers are wrong, but we know that - the number of cases is also a massive underestimate (I'd guess by an order of magnitude). But my understanding that the IFR of 0.5-1% was based on places like S Korea where they've been on top of testing and reporting from the start.
 
Todays the first day they will include deaths outside hospital. Will they give us a breakdown of the figures, i.e deaths in hospital, deaths at home, deaths in care homes?

Ah so because what we have been measuring is going down, we are now going to report it differently so it looks like we have gone backwards.

Hope they make it clear we haven't gone backwards, just now recording differently so expect the deaths to go up.

They've probably waited till it's at a low enough overall number to report it.
 
Todays the first day they will include deaths outside hospital. Will they give us a breakdown of the figures, i.e deaths in hospital, deaths at home, deaths in care homes?
For what it's worth (can't say they'll do the same in the UK), in Belgium it's broken down as:

Total deaths:
Deaths in hospitals:
Deaths in care homes:
% of deaths in care homes which is confirmed as Covid-19:

They're even speaking of it as "two separate epidemics going on simultaneously", one in society and one in the care homes. The % of confirmed cases in care homes is usually quite low as well.
 
Ah so because what we have been measuring is going down, we are now going to report it differently so it looks like we have gone backwards.

Hope they make it clear we haven't gone backwards, just now recording differently so expect the deaths to go up.

They've probably waited till it's at a low enough overall number to report it.
Think we still need to be looking at deaths in hospital and how many people are still being admitted to hospital. The lockdown was aimed at taking the pressure off the NHS. Think the government see the deaths in care homes as collateral damage unfortunately.
 
Ah so because what we have been measuring is going down, we are now going to report it differently so it looks like we have gone backwards.

Hope they make it clear we haven't gone backwards, just now recording differently so expect the deaths to go up.

They've probably waited till it's at a low enough overall number to report it.


I was wondering about this last night, in a few ways.

1) Our figures over the past 4-5 days, compared to the figures at the same time the week before, have been visibly lower suggesting we are indeed improving. Now that they're reporting the care-home figures etc from today, is this going to see a gigantic spike which is yet again going to completely demoralise everyone and as a side-effect, see even more people flouting lockdown because 'its clearly not working' (a lot of people just see a number, and don't imply any critical thinking such as comparing it to the previous week's numbers etc).

2) The cynic in me wonders why now? Is it because the pressure has become too much to keep ignoring the care home figures? Or is it a bit more sinister than that.......a care home scenario is, please don't take this as harshly as it sounds, a 'captive market' of sorts. It's not a never-ending scenario, there's only so many residents the virus can run through and therefore only so many deaths in that home. My aunt's home (that she manages) had 2 weeks of hell in which it ran riot and killed a good few residents and now they're all fine.....part of me wonders if they've waited until 'the worst is over' for care homes before they start reporting the numbers everyday so its a much lower figure?

Maybe I'm just being too cynical there.
 
For what it's worth (can't say they'll do the same in the UK), in Belgium it's broken down as:

Total deaths:
Deaths in hospitals:
Deaths in care homes:
% of deaths in care homes which is confirmed as Covid-19:

They're even speaking of it as "two separate epidemics going on simultaneously", one in society and one in the care homes. The % of confirmed cases in care homes is usually quite low as well.
That's how it should be reported here. Will every care home death just be claimed as a Covid-19 or have some of the poor souls just died of other things or old age?
 
Think we still need to be looking at deaths in hospital and how many people are still being admitted to hospital. The lockdown was aimed at taking the pressure off the NHS. Think the government see the deaths in care homes as collateral damage unfortunately.


Also this, the key figure is the hospital figures. The lockdown is to ensure the NHS doesn't collapse under the pressure of admittances, the general consenus was that the virus was going to run through the population either way but we needed to manage hospital admittances and intensive care cases. So the hospital deaths and cases will still be the main focus in terms of how the government manage lockdown.
 
Wow, good for Sweden if that's true. I haven't been paying as much attention to Sweden as I thought I would be, it's been quieter than I expected. Given their approach, you'd think media outlets would be all over this situation as they are basically being guinea pigs for a different approach.
When it comes to media silence is always good. If there was a hint of their approach backfiring the media (not to mention the scores of people dreaming of a Draconian lockdown needing whatever material they can find to support their wish) would be all over it.

Sweden have found the perfect balance in my opinion and that will become increasingly evident the longer this goes on (and beyond).
 
When it comes to media silence is always good. If there was a hint of their approach backfiring the media (not to mention the scores of people dreaming of a Draconian lockdown needing whatever material they can find to support their wish) would be all over it.

Sweden have found the perfect balance in my opinion and that will become increasingly evident the longer this goes on (and beyond).

I would never ever take sweeden for a barometer of anything.

They're on a very unique culture. Have you even seen their prison? If that's the prison in here many would love go there voluntarily.

Whatever they're doing if working is part due to them being swedish.
 
That's how it should be reported here. Will every care home death just be claimed as a Covid-19 or have some of the poor souls just died of other things or old age?
All claimed as Covid-19 but will be adjusted once they're confirmed as infected/not infected, so the numbers will still be adjusted quite a bit I'd imagine.