SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Just saw a woman in UK getting a shot of a vaccine as human trials begin.
How long will it take from here for a vaccine to be ready assuming all goes well?
One of the women actually working closely with the work says she's confident maybe around September.

I won't get my hopes up as a lot can go wrong but she wouldn't give that type of timeline if she wasn't relitevely confident, especially with the public actively searching for a scapegoat.
 
Didn't think you were being serious to be honest. Not sure if you still are. I can't speak for evaporation, but regarding dispersion, the main challenge is that the droplets don't really always behave is obvious ways. There are many challenges. Warning, the spoilers below are lengthy and will probably make you want to sleep.

Only open this if you really, really want to read a little about droplet dispersion:
In some of the discussions I've mentioned above and also in some of these articles, they say statements such as "small droplets disperse easily" and "large droplets settle quickly". This is acceptable because broadly speaking it is true and it is okay for a wider audience not involved in the field. The devil is in the detail though. The reality is that it is much more complicated then this when the air is moving quite quickly (turbulent motion). You can't really say these statements anymore in this case because how the droplets disperse now additionally now depends on characteristics of the moving air. Or more specifically velocity fluctuations (momentum) imparted (transferred) to the droplets by the air.

Typically if the air is turbulent, the best way to describe this is as a superposition (an addition of sorts) of lots of different air movements, all of different shapes and sizes, all on top of one another. Think of it like a forest with trees (large scales), flowers (small scales) plants (medium scales) all on top of each other. It is a bit like that but the key difference is that the scales in the fluid are all entangled with eachother. One way to describe the large scales is called the "integral scale". Broadly speaking it measures very large distance air motion. If you are in a room, it will describe the characteristics of really large air motion which spans the entire room. But within this room, within the large scale air motion, don't forget we also have tiny air motions. These tiny, small motions we call "Kolmogorov scales".

The reason these two scales (Integral and Kolmogorov) are important is because they influence greatly how droplets disperse. We use a non-dimensional number (like how biologists use this R number) to describe, qualitatively how droplets move. This is called the Stokes number. It is a measure of how much intertia, i.e. resistance, that the droplet has to any momentum which is imparted onto it. Effectively it is calculated by a characteristic of the droplet divided by a characteristic of the gas. But unfortunately, we don't really know what is the best scale of the gas to use, is it either the Integral scale or the Kolmogorov scale. Whilst there is some agreement as to how to characterise the droplet, it is made complicated because sprays and clouds of droplets have different sizes, so ideally we want a single number describing the entire cloud, and not a number describing just one droplet in the cloud.

When the Stokes number is really small, we can then say, qualitatively, "small droplets disperse easily". This is the reason why we can do Particle Image Velocimetry, a technique used to measure either gas velocity or droplet velocity. You cannot measure size. Think of this like small dust grains moving with the wind.

When the Stokes number is very large, we can say "droplets settle quickly", or better still, they follow ballistic trajectories. This simply means they just basically ignore much of the surrounding air motion. Think of this like a cricket ball moving through a very light wind.

However, when the Stokes number ~ 1, the droplets behave in a strange way. They begin to form clusters in the flow. This is the same as clustering you get in machine learning. In essence, you get regions in the air flow where there are many droplets (clusters) and region in the air flow where there are few (voids). It is called "preferential concentration" in my field. Unfortunately we don't know the mechanisms as to why this occur though some have been proposed. The relevant point here is that there is experimental and simulation evidence to suggest that when the droplets form clusters, their settling velocity, i.e. how quickly the droplets settle, is enhanced! It could be that these droplets, when they get close together, just form a "super" droplet of sorts. I have no idea what the consequences of this effect are for evaporation. This preferential concentration effect is known to also enhance collisions, at least from what we can understand in CFD (computational fluid dynamics) simulations and its influence on the formation of rain in clouds is hotly debated.

So if you know the Stokes number, you can, at least qualitiatively, have some indication on how the droplets disperse. So what Stokes numbers do you have? If the air is very strong, the Kolmogorov scales get smaller. So if you study the dispersion of the droplets using those scales, you could in theory say all the droplets disperse easily.The majority of papers I've read use Kolmogorov scales rather than integral. But again I stress, it is very difficult to first, produce this Stokes number and secondly to try and get a representative Stokes number of the entire spray or cloud.

Unfortuately, if the droplets have initially a large moving velocity, another parameter must be considered as well. This is called the "settling parameter" although I don't see many authors use it at all. The need to use settling parameter is important because a large amount of energy or momentum is transferred to the droplets during sneezing/coughing. Therefore, at least initially, these droplets may ignore all the surrounding air simply because they are moving so quickly, they don't really have time to react to any of the motion. When the settling parameter, described in this way, is unity, the settling velocity of the droplets is enhanced as well! This is called the "crossing trajectories effect" and was described in part in the 1950's I believe. When the velocity of the droplet decays to a situation where they become well correlated with the air motion, you don't really need the settling parameter anymore because it is a function of the Stokes number in this case. Note that a lot of professors believe you only really need the Stokes number, so my understanding here is somewhat limited.

Again note that the settling parameter and Stokes number only give a qualitative indication of what happens. They can't tell you exactly where the droplets will go, just give an indication of roughly how they will disperse. To track exactly where the droplets go requires experiments or simulations.

There has been a lot of work in engineering in studies of particles or droplets in "simple idealised turbulence" i.e. turbulence you typically only get in laboratory, but less fundamental studies in turbulent flows you encounter in nature and engineering. However, a lot of work comes from combustion, studying spray ignition in engines and how the spray behaves in that flow environment but this isn't my field. A lot of simulations have been carried out in cloud physics as I mentioned above. The problem is that whilst we want to believe all turbulent flows are the same, there is some belief that they are not. So a flow in the pipe must be treated differently to the flow of air in your room etc. We just don't know if turbulent flows have any universal properties which are true for all engineering and natural applications. So just because when you sneeze in a room the droplets behave one way, it may be different if you sneeze outdoors where the air motion is different.

The reason why you need to be careful with CFD is that the methods used, RANS and LES don't simulate all the flow using the Navier Stokes (NS) equations of motion for fluid dynamics. Note that the NS equations are simply Newton's second law applied to moving fluids. RANS actually uses an averaged Navier stokes equation and this requires turbulence modelling - i.e. adhoc "best guess" methods - to fix the averaged equations so that they can be simulated. No one knows if the various turbulence models are valid but it is cheap to run and can give results which give "the overall picture" for air flows without droplets. LES does simulate some of the equations, but it cuts of at a certain point and simply models the rest - it claims beyond that point the flow behaves in a way described by a model. Guess where that model is - the Kolmogorov scales, so it isn't clear that you can use LES for problems with droplets because it isn't clear if the models really describe the Kolmogorov scales accurately or not. DNS (Direct Numerical Simulation) simulates all the details of the flow and is in theory the best simulation. But it has a very high computational cost. I'm not sure what they've done in the video, I am skeptical they managed to do DNS but you never know.

Even if you manage to get a DNS you still have to consider how you describe the small droplets. The majority of simulations just say the droplets are "points", so that they don't have an appreciable size. The majority of simulations ignore any "back influence" of the droplets on the air flow. So in other words, if the air flow causes droplets to move, the droplets themselves may change locally the air flow! There may also be collisions between droplets, irrespective of the clustering phenomenon I described above which are ignored and local flow distortions caused by the droplets. If you read the spoiler below, these collisions can lead to droplets of different sizes, which of course may be important. Finally, if the droplets are larger than the Kolmogorov scale air motions, their dynamics is different and there are very few simulations which look at these droplets - most focus on particles/droplets smaller than the Kolmogorov scale. Also note that if the particles or droplets have a density smaller than the density of the surrounding air, the dynamics are different as well.

You may ask why not carry out experiments and brute force our way through this. Laser experiments are quite difficult to carry out. The laser must be aligned with its internal/external optics. If a camera is used, it may need to be synced with the laser. 3D experiments in multiphase flows are exceedingly rare. Tracking individual droplets, in particular their collisions, is generally difficult. So whilst there are some good experiments, they are lagging behind considerably to where we need to be. Couple this with the issues with CFD and this is why particle/droplet dispersion in turbulence is a pretty tricky problem.

Note I've also ignored temperature affects, called thermophoresis and turbulence intensity (the air motion is stronger in one location than another) affects, called turbophoresis. I've not studied these effects but they can also influence particle/droplet dispersion. Note also I don't have a background in simulations, so some of that knowledge may be out of date. Note that for the benefit of this discussion, solid particles disperse in the same way as liquid droplets, with the exception of the discussion on collision outcomes.

Only open this if you really want to read about droplet collisions:
When a droplet collides with a solid surface, the amount of liquid content that remains on the surface depends on various properties. This includes properties of the droplet like its size and velocity, its surface tension and viscosity. Conditions of the surface include surface roughness, how wet it is, temperature etc. The surrounding gas also has an influence, including viscosity of the gas and temperature effects etc. As far as I understand it, the reason why droplets of oil move about in a hot pan is because when the droplet touches the surface, the oil in contact with the hot surface evaporates so quickly that it creates a protective layer, preventing the rest of the droplet from evaporating. This is called the "Leidenfrost effect".

So why is this important for the spread of viruses? If you exhale droplets through sneezing/coughing, those droplets may collide with a surface. In some cases, some of the liquid will break up from the surface and re-enter the air. We call this "secondary atomization" and the small droplets which re-enter the air are called "satellite" droplets. The liquid remaining on the surface will then remain there until it evaporates. I posted some images of these processes in the stickied thread. Note that a spray of droplets colliding on a surface may have different behaviour than individual droplets colliding on the same surface. This is because in a spray of droplets, as one droplet collides onto a surface, whilst its collision is still taking place, another droplet may collide in the same location, and this can change the outcome of original collision. It may be a similar issue with the cloud of droplets produced from sneezing/coughing.

You can also get droplets colliding in mid-air. Again the outcome of the collision depends on various processes as well as some of the processes I described in the previous spoiler. In essence, when two droplets collide, you may get all their liquid forming into one larger droplet. This type of collision is called "coalesence". Alternatively you may get other collisions which lead to a larger droplet, but also some smaller droplets too. There are several collision outcomes which lead to this type of collision. There could be mid-air collisions, at least initially, when the cloud of droplets is produced from sneezing/coughing, because the droplets may move with different velocities due to their differences in size. Alternatively mid-air collisions may occur because the surrounding air around one droplet may differ to the surroinding air around another, leading to those droplets having a different droplet velocity and possibly leading to collision.

A word on nanofluids:
These are fluids with particles that are of the size of nanometer(s). According to colleagues I spoke to, they aren't well understood, but they were researching them to investigate their heat transfer properties. Supposedly for one type of nanoparticle at least, it significantly enhances how much heat can transfer through a liquid. I don't know anything about how nanoparticles move in a fluid, but Brownian motion will almost certainly be important here. Knowledge, at least in this part of nanofluids, remains limited. The reason I've mentioned them is in case the virus can be transmitted in nanosized droplets or whatever - I don't know.

What do you think of the advice about 1.5m or 2m spacing? Obviously there is still risk at those distances but how much do you think it reduces the risk? Is it appropriate advice?
 
Bill Gates - like God - works in mysterious ways.

Bill Gates: a pandemic is gonna happen in the next few years that is gonna kill more than 10 million people. Countries should invest in defending against microbes, not against missiles.
Nutters: You see, Bill Gates caused this pandemic. He even left clues about that.

Bill Gates: The Earth is overpopulated, and the main reason for this is because in countries where the child's mortality is high, people make too many kids (because by doing so they ensure that some of the kids survive). If we vaccinate everyone against polio, measles and other bad diseases, we will reduce the mortality in these countries, ensuring that so much pain never happens, while on the other hand ensure that the population does not go out of control and destroys Earth. The way to do this is to vaccinate everyone so people don't die from diseases, emancipate women so their role is not only to make kids, and ensure that everyone has a dignified and comfortable life. If we do this, Earth's population won't ever reach 11 billion, cause countries will reach some equilibrium (like Europe/US/China etc).
Nutters: Bill Gates want to vaccinate everyone so he puts a chip on us and then kills us and/or he sterilizes* us.

Bill Gates: I have enough money, so I can spend them (at a loss) making factories for vaccines, that at the moment we have a vaccine, we don't need to wait to build the factories, instead we can start immediately producing it.
Nutters: You see, it is his vaccine, the vaccine he developed.

* Pretty shitty plan, considering that even sterile people can have kids nowadays with the ADN technology. But I guess, he'll first use the chip to kill the doctors who give that service.

Nutters will nut.
 
Sure, it is from Revelation 6. The rider of the white horse with the crown(Corona) and the bow the ancient Greek word (Toxon) can also mean a biological agent, or a virus. The opening ceremony of the 2012 Olympic games in London actually contains many clues to what is going on. There is a plan behind all of this. Go to youtube and search for "olympic games opening ceremony 2012" and take your pick from the results.

This is quite possible the single stupidest thing I've ever read on RedCafe. And I've seen a "climate change expert" who didn't realize he was reading a graph entirely backwards, and an alien abduction believer who thought that taking ketamine opened him to the truth.
 
This is quite possible the single stupidest thing I've ever read on RedCafe. And I've seen a "climate change expert" who didn't realize he was reading a graph entirely backwards, and an alien abduction believer who thought that taking ketamine opened him to the truth.

We did once have a poster who believed that statues were drinking milk.
 
Any way you calculate it the vague notion that "Oh well most of them would have died very soon anyway" is rubbish. We are trying calculate how many years are lost, not how many days or weeks, as seems to be the mindset of those who think the old aren't giving up much by taking one for the team (or whatever the mindset is).
I agree that we shouldn't be trying to downplay the number of years/lives lost, but it's important for decision-makers to assess the toll of the virus in comparison to alternative strategies. E.g. years lost to the lack of cancer diagnoses and treatments. Weak analysis could have consequences.
 
I agree that we shouldn't be trying to downplay the number of years/lives lost, but it's important for decision-makers to assess the toll of the virus in comparison to alternative strategies. E.g. years lost to the lack of cancer diagnoses and treatments. Weak analysis could have consequences.

And the other consideration is that allowing the virus to run free reduces the capacity to do other medical procedures rather than increase it.

Australia is beginning elective surgery very soon as they have virtually eliminated the virus.
 
This is quite possible the single stupidest thing I've ever read on RedCafe. And I've seen a "climate change expert" who didn't realize he was reading a graph entirely backwards, and an alien abduction believer who thought that taking ketamine opened him to the truth.
You don't like the religious conspiracy-theorist end of world doom-mongering nutters? What is wrong with you?
 
Australia is inching close to elimination with only a handful of new cases yesterday depite testing being ramped up even further.

The NRL is due to start again behind closed doors in a months time. Schools never closed, but most kids stayed home unless their parents were essential workers, and are now planning a phased return to the classroom. Most shops didn't close but pubs and restaurants will remain closed or take away only for some time. And until the rest of the world gets to a much better place our borders are going to have to remain locked down. Inter-state restrictions may be able to be lifted sooner though.

That said things are still precarious as R is still only just below 1 in most states and above in 1. Partly because infections are so low (it is easier to lower R when you have a large number of infected and an R above 0 than it is with a very small number of infected and a R already below 1).

 
And the other consideration is that allowing the virus to run free reduces the capacity to do other medical procedures rather than increase it.

Australia is beginning elective surgery very soon as they have virtually eliminated the virus.
Absolutely yeah, COVID-19 needs to be under some sort of control as priority. Down the line it's a balancing act.

I think we've been fortunate in Aus. My gut says the major factors have been inherent characteristics of the country/population rather than decision-making. But the response has been above-average compared to other countries. Agreed with what you said a couple of days ago about the gov feeling the need to step up after the bushfires.
 
Absolutely yeah, COVID-19 needs to be under some sort of control as priority. Down the line it's a balancing act.

I think we've been fortunate in Aus. My gut says the major factors have been inherent characteristics of the country/population rather than decision-making. But the response has been above-average compared to other countries. Agreed with what you said a couple of days ago about the gov feeling the need to step up after the bushfires.

We do like a bit of authoritarianism despite protests to the contrary. How else can you explain Peter Dutton not being lynched on sight?
 
"Construction and manufacturing are likely to be at the forefront of a phased return that would be based on a traffic-light system, particularly given the pressure from Conservative MPs"

What are they talking about ? Construction and manufacturing never stopped.

Seriously?! They stopped in Ireland. Surely they stopped in the UK too? (with maybe a few exceptions)
 
if that happens then we may as well lift most of the restrictions. People will take the piss and have massive Gatherings and parties etc When “seeing” family.
A lot of people are doing that anyway. Next door to me have been regularly having family and friends round for barbecues and drinks, etc. Their English isn't great so possibly they've misunderstood the guidelines.
 
Just read they are testing nicotine patches on some sick in France. Because of the low number of smokers seen infected.
My dad never used to get colds (a corona virus) etc when's he smoked like a chimney but does since he quit, so this doesn't surprise me.
 
An old Yank woman at work is complaining that the school won't pay all her petrol and parking fees and refund her monthly train pass. She says the train is too dangerous. 'I need to look after my health'
She is absolutely fat as feck and gets out of breath just going up to the second floor of the school.
 
The general mistrust of the broader public isn't exactly proof that the majority of journalists are doing a bad job. Since when does public opinion matter so much? People are angry. Some direct this anger towards China, some to politicians, and some to journalists. Even trust in scientists is failing - partly because they all have different takes on the matter. The reason behind the mistrust is because one person would read something, hang on to the theory and dump any hypothesis or article that dare cast any doubt on it.

An opinion piece by the media is just that - an opinion. We all have them. An interview with a scientist is just another opinion. All in all, nobody really knows this virus, but everyone thinks they do.

But news is supposed to be factual, not opinion. They've been getting the two very confused lately.
 
Seriously?! They stopped in Ireland. Surely they stopped in the UK too? (with maybe a few exceptions)

Think construction sites in England and Wales carried on but in Scotland they were instructed to close unless they were working on essential infrastructure (hospitals, utilities etc).

I work mainly on house building sites and they're all shut up here until the Scottish government say otherwise.

Taylor Wimpey said yesterday that they were intending to reopen their sites in England and Wales a week on Monday after closing them voluntarily.
 
Seriously?! They stopped in Ireland. Surely they stopped in the UK too? (with maybe a few exceptions)

Most house builders shut voluntarily due to repressed demand for new homes.

With contractors it's been a mixed bag due to pressure to complete. Many closed for the initial three week period, with the sites that didn't implementing a restriction on numbers. Most have now said they're reopening on either 27th April or 4th May (again with reduced numbers).

Housebuilders can also (on the whole) afford a several week shutdown, contractors generally can't.
 
So reading my morning Covid brief from Deutsche Bank I fell over this info from New Jersey:

New York’s neighboring state New Jersey is set to pass 100,000 cases itself later today, though the state has seen a lower mortality rate with 5368 deaths. The Governor of the state said that test results were coming faster recently, now taking five to seven days, rather than as long as 14 days. This highlights that some of these case numbers may be quite backward looking.

Does anyone know if it generally takes up to two weeks to get results all over the world? And wont that mean that the numbers of daily cases we are seeing now are actually quite old and representative what happened more than a week ago?
 
So reading my morning Covid brief from Deutsche Bank I fell over this info from New Jersey:

New York’s neighboring state New Jersey is set to pass 100,000 cases itself later today, though the state has seen a lower mortality rate with 5368 deaths. The Governor of the state said that test results were coming faster recently, now taking five to seven days, rather than as long as 14 days. This highlights that some of these case numbers may be quite backward looking.

Does anyone know if it generally takes up to two weeks to get results all over the world? And wont that mean that the numbers of daily cases we are seeing now are actually quite old and representative what happened more than a week ago?

There's certainly a lag, although I don't know if it's as long as 14 days.

This page: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.227109341.1509034505.1587716836-905153305.1584438892 shows the English confirmed cases by date of specimen (similar to the data that gives deaths by date of death, rather than date of announcment) and seems to show very low numbers for the last 2-3 days, which would suggest a few days lag.
 
Seriously?! They stopped in Ireland. Surely they stopped in the UK too? (with maybe a few exceptions)
The majority I know have carried on, my firm doesn't exactly make essential products but the work is still coming in so we are still open.

We had a letter from the government thanking us, saying we are essential "for the economy".
 
Seriously?! They stopped in Ireland. Surely they stopped in the UK too? (with maybe a few exceptions)


My mate works in the building trade, they were temporarily sent home for 2 weeks on 80% pay but yesterday they went back to work, he's currently working on a job building new homes which is considered essential work. I guess it might depend on the type of work being conducted, the urgency and who is paying/has paid for it. I think by mid-May a lot of building and construction will be business as usual though.
 
Seriously?! They stopped in Ireland. Surely they stopped in the UK too? (with maybe a few exceptions)

I live on the Thames and there's a massive construction site right outside my window right now. They rolled it in a couple of weeks into lockdown. Maybe it's essential, I'm not sure what they're doing exactly
 
I live on the Thames and there's a massive construction site right outside my window right now. They rolled it in a couple of weeks into lockdown. Maybe it's essential, I'm not sure what they're doing exactly
Doesn't have to be essential - its work from home if you can, they obviously can't. And, in fact, construction only has to follow social distancing where possible, and in general its not
 
Seriously?! They stopped in Ireland. Surely they stopped in the UK too? (with maybe a few exceptions)
Construction, road and building works never stopped in Lithuania either throughout the quarantine, even though we had it really strict by all accounts.
 
Construction, road and building works never stopped in Lithuania either throughout the quarantine, even though we had it really strict by all accounts.

They're using the lockdown in Italy as an opportunity to do roadworks and stuff like that. Normal construction is suspended though.
 
The majority I know have carried on, my firm doesn't exactly make essential products but the work is still coming in so we are still open.

We had a letter from the government thanking us, saying we are essential "for the economy".
A letter, that’s nice of them
 
So, Donald Doc has spoken. Who wants to join me in injecting toilet bleach and sticking a torch up our arses?

Would be very nice if he could just down a bottle of bleach at the podium tonight in the rose garden as a demonstration. Would solve a lot of problems in a very short time.
 
A letter, that’s nice of them
I thought so too, yeah we will just possibly get infected and then infect our families just to save the economy.

Yet we don't fall in to the category as essential workers to get school childcare ( not that I would send them anyway but still it's a farce) I have colleagues that have no other choice but to book holidays to look after their children.
 
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I wonder how people are supposed to keep their facemasks on and not touch them in pubs and clubs while I assume drinking, eating or kissing from time to time.

Have you not seen Hannity’s explanation of how you can eat a hot dog at a ball game?!



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