SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)



I reckon that's bunk.

Fag-packet calculation of population future life expectancy for Italy death profile:

Age/deaths/future life
0-9/2/77.8
10-19/0/68.4
20-29/7/58.6
30-39/47/48.8
40-49/197/39.2
50-59/842/29.9
60-69/2515/21.2
70-79/6747/13.5
80-89/9171/7.3
90+/3056/3

Weighted average is c11 years. It's implausible that the future life expectancy of a Covid-19 victim isn't a lot lower.

Edit - reading further, it seems they calculate the normal age/gender-adjusted future life as 14 for men, but 13 taking into account underlying health conditions with the same penetration rate as the victims. The future life expectancy will be lower for the set of people that have underlying health conditions to the extent that getting covid-19 would prove fatal.
 
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They're all so desperate to be relevant and get clicks that they're taking any expert's word they can find as gospel, without acknowledging that the experts are learning about this virus too and are being proven wrong all the time as we understand more about it.
The general mistrust of the broader public isn't exactly proof that the majority of journalists are doing a bad job. Since when does public opinion matter so much? People are angry. Some direct this anger towards China, some to politicians, and some to journalists. Even trust in scientists is failing - partly because they all have different takes on the matter. The reason behind the mistrust is because one person would read something, hang on to the theory and dump any hypothesis or article that dare cast any doubt on it.

An opinion piece by the media is just that - an opinion. We all have them. An interview with a scientist is just another opinion. All in all, nobody really knows this virus, but everyone thinks they do.
 
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Bill Gates could not get his Windows virus free, so now he is going to recommend a vaccine to get humans virus free, make it mandatory and before that happens also make sure that no one can sue him if things go wrong? Africa and India come to mind when ever I hear anything about a Bill Gates vaccine. I will not ever take a vaccine from some one who wants to control world population. Bill from 2 mins 22.

Where to even start. Shaky ground cubed.
 
And yet when I asked you about "fecking droplets, how do they work?" you said nothing :(

Didn't think you were being serious to be honest. Not sure if you still are. I can't speak for evaporation, but regarding dispersion, the main challenge is that the droplets don't really always behave is obvious ways. There are many challenges. Warning, the spoilers below are lengthy and will probably make you want to sleep.

Only open this if you really, really want to read a little about droplet dispersion:
In some of the discussions I've mentioned above and also in some of these articles, they say statements such as "small droplets disperse easily" and "large droplets settle quickly". This is acceptable because broadly speaking it is true and it is okay for a wider audience not involved in the field. The devil is in the detail though. The reality is that it is much more complicated then this when the air is moving quite quickly (turbulent motion). You can't really say these statements anymore in this case because how the droplets disperse now additionally now depends on characteristics of the moving air. Or more specifically velocity fluctuations (momentum) imparted (transferred) to the droplets by the air.

Typically if the air is turbulent, the best way to describe this is as a superposition (an addition of sorts) of lots of different air movements, all of different shapes and sizes, all on top of one another. Think of it like a forest with trees (large scales), flowers (small scales) plants (medium scales) all on top of each other. It is a bit like that but the key difference is that the scales in the fluid are all entangled with eachother. One way to describe the large scales is called the "integral scale". Broadly speaking it measures very large distance air motion. If you are in a room, it will describe the characteristics of really large air motion which spans the entire room. But within this room, within the large scale air motion, don't forget we also have tiny air motions. These tiny, small motions we call "Kolmogorov scales".

The reason these two scales (Integral and Kolmogorov) are important is because they influence greatly how droplets disperse. We use a non-dimensional number (like how biologists use this R number) to describe, qualitatively how droplets move. This is called the Stokes number. It is a measure of how much intertia, i.e. resistance, that the droplet has to any momentum which is imparted onto it. Effectively it is calculated by a characteristic of the droplet divided by a characteristic of the gas. But unfortunately, we don't really know what is the best scale of the gas to use, is it either the Integral scale or the Kolmogorov scale. Whilst there is some agreement as to how to characterise the droplet, it is made complicated because sprays and clouds of droplets have different sizes, so ideally we want a single number describing the entire cloud, and not a number describing just one droplet in the cloud.

When the Stokes number is really small, we can then say, qualitatively, "small droplets disperse easily". This is the reason why we can do Particle Image Velocimetry, a technique used to measure either gas velocity or droplet velocity. You cannot measure size. Think of this like small dust grains moving with the wind.

When the Stokes number is very large, we can say "droplets settle quickly", or better still, they follow ballistic trajectories. This simply means they just basically ignore much of the surrounding air motion. Think of this like a cricket ball moving through a very light wind.

However, when the Stokes number ~ 1, the droplets behave in a strange way. They begin to form clusters in the flow. This is the same as clustering you get in machine learning. In essence, you get regions in the air flow where there are many droplets (clusters) and region in the air flow where there are few (voids). It is called "preferential concentration" in my field. Unfortunately we don't know the mechanisms as to why this occur though some have been proposed. The relevant point here is that there is experimental and simulation evidence to suggest that when the droplets form clusters, their settling velocity, i.e. how quickly the droplets settle, is enhanced! It could be that these droplets, when they get close together, just form a "super" droplet of sorts. I have no idea what the consequences of this effect are for evaporation. This preferential concentration effect is known to also enhance collisions, at least from what we can understand in CFD (computational fluid dynamics) simulations and its influence on the formation of rain in clouds is hotly debated.

So if you know the Stokes number, you can, at least qualitiatively, have some indication on how the droplets disperse. So what Stokes numbers do you have? If the air is very strong, the Kolmogorov scales get smaller. So if you study the dispersion of the droplets using those scales, you could in theory say all the droplets disperse easily.The majority of papers I've read use Kolmogorov scales rather than integral. But again I stress, it is very difficult to first, produce this Stokes number and secondly to try and get a representative Stokes number of the entire spray or cloud.

Unfortuately, if the droplets have initially a large moving velocity, another parameter must be considered as well. This is called the "settling parameter" although I don't see many authors use it at all. The need to use settling parameter is important because a large amount of energy or momentum is transferred to the droplets during sneezing/coughing. Therefore, at least initially, these droplets may ignore all the surrounding air simply because they are moving so quickly, they don't really have time to react to any of the motion. When the settling parameter, described in this way, is unity, the settling velocity of the droplets is enhanced as well! This is called the "crossing trajectories effect" and was described in part in the 1950's I believe. When the velocity of the droplet decays to a situation where they become well correlated with the air motion, you don't really need the settling parameter anymore because it is a function of the Stokes number in this case. Note that a lot of professors believe you only really need the Stokes number, so my understanding here is somewhat limited.

Again note that the settling parameter and Stokes number only give a qualitative indication of what happens. They can't tell you exactly where the droplets will go, just give an indication of roughly how they will disperse. To track exactly where the droplets go requires experiments or simulations.

There has been a lot of work in engineering in studies of particles or droplets in "simple idealised turbulence" i.e. turbulence you typically only get in laboratory, but less fundamental studies in turbulent flows you encounter in nature and engineering. However, a lot of work comes from combustion, studying spray ignition in engines and how the spray behaves in that flow environment but this isn't my field. A lot of simulations have been carried out in cloud physics as I mentioned above. The problem is that whilst we want to believe all turbulent flows are the same, there is some belief that they are not. So a flow in the pipe must be treated differently to the flow of air in your room etc. We just don't know if turbulent flows have any universal properties which are true for all engineering and natural applications. So just because when you sneeze in a room the droplets behave one way, it may be different if you sneeze outdoors where the air motion is different.

The reason why you need to be careful with CFD is that the methods used, RANS and LES don't simulate all the flow using the Navier Stokes (NS) equations of motion for fluid dynamics. Note that the NS equations are simply Newton's second law applied to moving fluids. RANS actually uses an averaged Navier stokes equation and this requires turbulence modelling - i.e. adhoc "best guess" methods - to fix the averaged equations so that they can be simulated. No one knows if the various turbulence models are valid but it is cheap to run and can give results which give "the overall picture" for air flows without droplets. LES does simulate some of the equations, but it cuts of at a certain point and simply models the rest - it claims beyond that point the flow behaves in a way described by a model. Guess where that model is - the Kolmogorov scales, so it isn't clear that you can use LES for problems with droplets because it isn't clear if the models really describe the Kolmogorov scales accurately or not. DNS (Direct Numerical Simulation) simulates all the details of the flow and is in theory the best simulation. But it has a very high computational cost. I'm not sure what they've done in the video, I am skeptical they managed to do DNS but you never know.

Even if you manage to get a DNS you still have to consider how you describe the small droplets. The majority of simulations just say the droplets are "points", so that they don't have an appreciable size. The majority of simulations ignore any "back influence" of the droplets on the air flow. So in other words, if the air flow causes droplets to move, the droplets themselves may change locally the air flow! There may also be collisions between droplets, irrespective of the clustering phenomenon I described above which are ignored and local flow distortions caused by the droplets. If you read the spoiler below, these collisions can lead to droplets of different sizes, which of course may be important. Finally, if the droplets are larger than the Kolmogorov scale air motions, their dynamics is different and there are very few simulations which look at these droplets - most focus on particles/droplets smaller than the Kolmogorov scale. Also note that if the particles or droplets have a density smaller than the density of the surrounding air, the dynamics are different as well.

You may ask why not carry out experiments and brute force our way through this. Laser experiments are quite difficult to carry out. The laser must be aligned with its internal/external optics. If a camera is used, it may need to be synced with the laser. 3D experiments in multiphase flows are exceedingly rare. Tracking individual droplets, in particular their collisions, is generally difficult. So whilst there are some good experiments, they are lagging behind considerably to where we need to be. Couple this with the issues with CFD and this is why particle/droplet dispersion in turbulence is a pretty tricky problem.

Note I've also ignored temperature affects, called thermophoresis and turbulence intensity (the air motion is stronger in one location than another) affects, called turbophoresis. I've not studied these effects but they can also influence particle/droplet dispersion. Note also I don't have a background in simulations, so some of that knowledge may be out of date. Note that for the benefit of this discussion, solid particles disperse in the same way as liquid droplets, with the exception of the discussion on collision outcomes.

Only open this if you really want to read about droplet collisions:
When a droplet collides with a solid surface, the amount of liquid content that remains on the surface depends on various properties. This includes properties of the droplet like its size and velocity, its surface tension and viscosity. Conditions of the surface include surface roughness, how wet it is, temperature etc. The surrounding gas also has an influence, including viscosity of the gas and temperature effects etc. As far as I understand it, the reason why droplets of oil move about in a hot pan is because when the droplet touches the surface, the oil in contact with the hot surface evaporates so quickly that it creates a protective layer, preventing the rest of the droplet from evaporating. This is called the "Leidenfrost effect".

So why is this important for the spread of viruses? If you exhale droplets through sneezing/coughing, those droplets may collide with a surface. In some cases, some of the liquid will break up from the surface and re-enter the air. We call this "secondary atomization" and the small droplets which re-enter the air are called "satellite" droplets. The liquid remaining on the surface will then remain there until it evaporates. I posted some images of these processes in the stickied thread. Note that a spray of droplets colliding on a surface may have different behaviour than individual droplets colliding on the same surface. This is because in a spray of droplets, as one droplet collides onto a surface, whilst its collision is still taking place, another droplet may collide in the same location, and this can change the outcome of original collision. It may be a similar issue with the cloud of droplets produced from sneezing/coughing.

You can also get droplets colliding in mid-air. Again the outcome of the collision depends on various processes as well as some of the processes I described in the previous spoiler. In essence, when two droplets collide, you may get all their liquid forming into one larger droplet. This type of collision is called "coalesence". Alternatively you may get other collisions which lead to a larger droplet, but also some smaller droplets too. There are several collision outcomes which lead to this type of collision. There could be mid-air collisions, at least initially, when the cloud of droplets is produced from sneezing/coughing, because the droplets may move with different velocities due to their differences in size. Alternatively mid-air collisions may occur because the surrounding air around one droplet may differ to the surroinding air around another, leading to those droplets having a different droplet velocity and possibly leading to collision.

A word on nanofluids:
These are fluids with particles that are of the size of nanometer(s). According to colleagues I spoke to, they aren't well understood, but they were researching them to investigate their heat transfer properties. Supposedly for one type of nanoparticle at least, it significantly enhances how much heat can transfer through a liquid. I don't know anything about how nanoparticles move in a fluid, but Brownian motion will almost certainly be important here. Knowledge, at least in this part of nanofluids, remains limited. The reason I've mentioned them is in case the virus can be transmitted in nanosized droplets or whatever - I don't know.
 
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Bill Gates could not get his Windows virus free, so now he is going to recommend a vaccine to get humans virus free, make it mandatory and before that happens also make sure that no one can sue him if things go wrong? Africa and India come to mind when ever I hear anything about a Bill Gates vaccine. I will not ever take a vaccine from some one who wants to control world population. Bill from 2 mins 22.

Are you on Mescaline?
 
Just saw a woman in UK getting a shot of a vaccine as human trials begin.
How long will it take from here for a vaccine to be ready assuming all goes well?
 
Bill Gates could not get his Windows virus free, so now he is going to recommend a vaccine to get humans virus free, make it mandatory and before that happens also make sure that no one can sue him if things go wrong? Africa and India come to mind when ever I hear anything about a Bill Gates vaccine. I will not ever take a vaccine from some one who wants to control world population. Bill from 2 mins 22.

Huh?
 
Fecks sake.
Until the phase A of testing (just a few individuals) does not finish successfully, and candidate vaccines don't start the second stage (administrating it to a few dozens to a few tens of people), the answer is gonna be the same (12-18 months). There are already dozens of candidate vaccines (probably even more than a hundred if the number increased recently), some of which are doing testing. Hopefully, Moderna's results will be really fast (it has passed a month or so since the first person was vaccinated, so it should be interesting to see the number of antibodies there). In any case, most of the time is gonna be spent on testing, not on building the vaccine (which has already happened). The problem is that if the testing results negative, then everything starts from the beginning, so the 12-18 months get reset.
 
Why would Bill Gates put clues about Covid-19 in the 2012 Olympic Games opening ceremony anyway?
Bill Gates - like God - works in mysterious ways.

Bill Gates: a pandemic is gonna happen in the next few years that is gonna kill more than 10 million people. Countries should invest in defending against microbes, not against missiles.
Nutters: You see, Bill Gates caused this pandemic. He even left clues about that.

Bill Gates: The Earth is overpopulated, and the main reason for this is because in countries where the child's mortality is high, people make too many kids (because by doing so they ensure that some of the kids survive). If we vaccinate everyone against polio, measles and other bad diseases, we will reduce the mortality in these countries, ensuring that so much pain never happens, while on the other hand ensure that the population does not go out of control and destroys Earth. The way to do this is to vaccinate everyone so people don't die from diseases, emancipate women so their role is not only to make kids, and ensure that everyone has a dignified and comfortable life. If we do this, Earth's population won't ever reach 11 billion, cause countries will reach some equilibrium (like Europe/US/China etc).
Nutters: Bill Gates want to vaccinate everyone so he puts a chip on us and then kills us and/or he sterilizes* us.

Bill Gates: I have enough money, so I can spend them (at a loss) making factories for vaccines, that at the moment we have a vaccine, we don't need to wait to build the factories, instead we can start immediately producing it.
Nutters: You see, it is his vaccine, the vaccine he developed.

* Pretty shitty plan, considering that even sterile people can have kids nowadays with the ADN technology. But I guess, he'll first use the chip to kill the doctors who give that service.
 
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Why would Bill Gates put clues about Covid-19 in the 2012 Olympic Games opening ceremony anyway?

Because that's how illuminati work. A part of the game is to put clues on what will happen out in the public.

I had a girlfriend that was big into this conspiracy stuff, it is incredible how much thought the authors have put into it.
 
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Because that's how illuminati work. A part of the game is to put clues on what will happen out in the public. I had a girlfriend that was big into this conspiracy stuff, it is incredible how much thought the authors have put into it.
I just put "illuminati" and "corona" through an anagram builder, and lo! It spells "Multiracial Onion"! I'm sure there is something in this... What do you think @Im red2?
 
Bill Gates - like God - works in mysterious ways.

Bill Gates: a pandemic is gonna happen in the next few years that is gonna kill more than 10 million people. Countries should invest in defending against microbes, not against missiles.
Nutters: You see, Bill Gates caused this pandemic. He even left clues about that.

Bill Gates: The Earth is overpopulated, and the main reason for this is because in countries where the child's mortality is high, people make too many kids (because by doing so they ensure that some of the kids survive). If we vaccinate everyone against polio, measles and other bad diseases, we will reduce the mortality in these countries, ensuring that so much pain never happens, while on the other hand ensure that the population does not go out of control and destroys Earth. The way to do this is to vaccinate everyone so people don't die from diseases, emancipate women so their only role is not to make kids, and ensure that everyone has a dignified and comfortable life. If we do this, Earth's population won't ever reach 11 billion, cause countries will reach some equilibrium (like Europe/US/China etc).
Nutters: Bill Gates want to vaccinate everyone so he puts a chip on us and then kills us and/or he sterilizes* us.

Bill Gates: I have enough money, so I can spend them (at a loss) making factories for vaccines, that at the moment we have a vaccine, we don't need to wait to build the factories, instead we can start immediately producing it.
Nutters: You see, it is his vaccine, the vaccine he developed.

* Pretty shitty plan, considering that even sterile people can have kids nowadays with the ADN technology. But I guess, he'll first use the chip to kill the doctors who give that service.

It all makes sense now :D
 
I just put "illuminati" and "corona" through an anagram builder, and lo! It spells "Multiracial Onion"! I'm sure there is something in this... What do you think @Im red2?

If you know the British Sri-lankan comedian Romesh Raganathan, I'm sure he would somehow relate that to "coconut", i.e. brown on the outside, white on the inside.
 
Is he not just announcing something along the sames lines what Nicola Sturgeon said today - Welsh FM, Mark Drakeford, is due to set out plans on how the nation will aim to lift its coronavirus lockdown

Yes and no I'd imagine.
It will be like Sturgeon but he's already said he's looking forward to releasing some measures when this 3wk period ends, from May 7th on. Our numbers are much lower, if we have the ability to unlock certain things and start some wheels turning I think we'll be the first UK country to do so. Nothing until after this three week period though, of course.
 
@Alabaster Codify7

So do you still think we will have another two weeks extension of the current lockdown? I think we could see a "softer version" of the current lockdown where the only thing that changes is that we are allowed to visit friends/family. Maybe that would last for three weeks, and then one of two things may be able to reopen depending on how well that went.
 
I just put "illuminati" and "corona" through an anagram builder, and lo! It spells "Multiracial Onion"! I'm sure there is something in this... What do you think @Im red2?

Of course there is something in it. Onions make people cry. This means that illuminati have created corona to make the whole world (all races) suffer.
 
Of course there is something in it. Onions make people cry. This means that illuminati have created corona to make the whole world (all races) suffer.
You see, when you think hard enough, you see the light and realize the truth.
 
Of course there is something in it. Onions make people cry. This means that illuminati have created corona to make the whole world (all races) suffer.
Onions make people cry. Crowns are worn by (among others) princes. Prince sang "When Doves Cry". Doves are a symbol of God. This is Armageddon!
 
Because that's how illuminati work. A part of the game is to put clues on what will happen out in the public.

I had a girlfriend that was big into this conspiracy stuff, it is incredible how much thought the authors have put into it.

A mate once sent me one of those videos with 9/11 being predicted in popular art, it had a scene from Terminator and they go under a bridge that has 9 11 on it (the height I presume). I thought it was hilarious but he was totally sold.