SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Even the Bible warned us about the dangers of Bill Gates. It is all on Revelation 13:15-17
 
0le said:
@Alabaster Codify7

So do you still think we will have another two weeks extension of the current lockdown? I think we could see a "softer version" of the current lockdown where the only thing that changes is that we are allowed to visit friends/family. Maybe that would last for three weeks, and then one of two things may be able to reopen depending on how well that went.
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if that happens then we may as well lift most of the restrictions. People will take the piss and have massive Gatherings and parties etc When “seeing” family.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
A mate once sent me one of those videos with 9/11 being predicted in popular art, it had a scene from Terminator and they go under a bridge that has 9 11 on it (the height I presume). I thought it was hilarious but he was totally sold.
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Oh yeah, that one is well known.

There is also a cartoon where Kobe Bryant dies in a helicopter accident. Coincidence? I think not!
 
Hound Dog said:
I had a girlfriend that was big into this conspiracy stuff, it is incredible how much thought the authors have put into it.
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There must be something in the water in all Balkan countries when it comes to this. The number of people who look rational but believe in all types of conspiracies is really huge. No surprise that the first article I saw about Bill Gates and COVID-19 came from Croatia.
 
Just read they are testing nicotine patches on some sick in France. Because of the low number of smokers seen infected.
 
Revan said:
There must be something in the water in all Balkan countries when it comes to this. The number of people who look rational but believe in all types of conspiracies is really huge. No surprise that the first article I saw about Bill Gates and COVID-19 came from Croatia.
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What's even worse is that she was the top student in her class at the Medical University of Belgrade. 9.91 out of 10.00 average grade over six years. She is now working at VMA, the most elite medical institution in the country and arguably in former Yugoslavia.

I think it's about the way the education system is set up. Zero emphasis on critical thinking.
 
0le said:
@Alabaster Codify7

So do you still think we will have another two weeks extension of the current lockdown? I think we could see a "softer version" of the current lockdown where the only thing that changes is that we are allowed to visit friends/family. Maybe that would last for three weeks, and then one of two things may be able to reopen depending on how well that went.
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To be honest I'd always thought of the UK as a whole. Until now I've never given much thought of any of the individual nations using their devolved powers to make their own path if they feel the time is right.

I don't know. We're all having two more weeks regardless I think until May 7th then perhaps each country will start operating slightly differently based on circumstances?

Either way it won't be a full release, just a few measures at first and see how people behave.
 
Hound Dog said:
"People need to stop coming to shows and say test test as we simply do not have enough reagents to make enough tests".

Well, it's nice that someone is finally telling it like it is, at least.
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Grim but the truth.

Funny as well when the newsanchor asked him what we coould do to prevent another peak and he kind of laughed and said there is nothing you can do. Another peak is a certainty.
 
Alabaster Codify7 said:
Out of curiosity, what information did they give us that we didn't already know? We know we're not going to see a sudden drop in cases or deaths and it's a marathon not a sprint. We know its too early for lockdown measures to be released/lessened. We know a vaccine isn't coming overnight. What exactly was the new information? For me, it was nothing but repeating the general information.
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When Whitty spoke on Wednesday, it was the first time anyone at the briefings had made clear that strong social distancing measures would be in place all year. Too much of the media coverage and political briefings leave hope that we might get a relatively normal summer and at one of these reviews, Johnson, Raab or Hancock will announce life can return to normal.

As much as many of us who are well read on the subject feel that it is obvious that 2020 will be a year hopefully like no other, on Monday I had a more senior member of staff in my NHS team wanting us managers to begin discussing plans on our phased returned to the office and another more senior colleague who couldn't bring herself to read a Guardian article on the briefing, as she found the concept too upsetting. Most of the country is in denial or oblivious to the fact that anyone who can work remotely will likely do so for most, if not all, of 2020 and the winter months of 2021, and that we won't be watching United at Old Trafford in that time either.
 
TMDaines said:
When Whitty spoke on Wednesday, it was the first time anyone at the briefings had made clear that strong social distancing measures would be in place all year. Too much of the media coverage and political briefings leave hope that we might get a relatively normal summer and at one of these reviews, Johnson, Raab or Hancock will announce life can return to normal.

As much as many of us who are well read on the subject feel that it is obvious that 2020 will be a year hopefully like no other, on Monday I had a more senior member of staff in my NHS team wanting us managers to begin discussing plans on our phased returned to the office and another more senior colleague who couldn't bring herself to read a Guardian article on the briefing, as she found the concept too upsetting. Most of the country is in denial or oblivious to the fact that anyone who can work remotely will likely do so for most, if not all, of 2020 and the winter months of 2021, and that we won't be watching United at Old Trafford in that time either.
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The one today on testing was good although again I don't see much point in showing the graphs everyday now people have got into the lockdown habit.

Have to say though really this press conference announcing better roll out of testing should've been happening 2-3 weeks ago.

Journalists bar some good ones from the local news just keep on asking the same questions about when lockdown is ending.
 
Hugh Jass said:
The guy from the netflix documentary Pandemic was saying he had an anti-body drug that could work. If you google it. It wont be available for a while though. Jacob Glanville is his name.

edit: https://www.irishmirror.ie/tv/netflix-pandemic-doctor-believes-hes-21799761
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I think that we need to stop doing this to ourselves. So many coulds, mays maybes etc while not many genuinely unexpected things have happened for a month plus... Things have pretty much been going as predicted - slow and depressing.

I haven't slept for more than four hours in two+ weeks. I am not sure how I manage to stay functional, given that I manage a team of 10 software engineers and have two small kids (2-year-old and 2-month-old). I am shattered each evening, but then start reading news, hoping to breakthroughs, get upset, somehow manage to fall asleep around 4-5 AM, wake up around 7 and repeat. And in all this time, despite trying to twist stats and researches in any way possible, I am yet to find anything to suggest that the end game in not this lasting until well into the next year and the majority of us getting infected.

I might at least help myself by not following all the news, but I cannot stop myself.

At least I still have those Oxford guys who hope for a September vaccine to hold onto.
 
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The mortality rate once on a ventilator from the initial tracking in NYC during March and very early April was 86% . That's basically a death sentence if it got to ventilator stage.

Edit - the study doesn't include patients who were still in hospital at the end date, so the survival rates would be higher overall, but still that's shocking.

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...utcomes-of-covid-19-patients-in-ny-hospitals/
 
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Revan said:
There must be something in the water in all Balkan countries when it comes to this. The number of people who look rational but believe in all types of conspiracies is really huge. No surprise that the first article I saw about Bill Gates and COVID-19 came from Croatia.
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Poland as well and Eastern countries in general I think. I’ve known several flat earthers here. All thought I was a complete moron for believing NASA. Apparently being a flat earther proves you have your own brain and can think independently.
 
Sarni said:
Poland as well and Eastern countries in general I think. I’ve known several flat earthers here. All thought I was a complete moron for believing NASA. Apparently being a flat earther proves you have your own brain and can think independently.
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This I still have not encountered in real life.

What's their background? Are you sure they sre not just claiming to believe it in order to stand out?
 
Hound Dog said:
This I still have not encountered in real life.

What's their background? Are you sure they sre not just claiming to believe it in order to stand out?
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One is a guy I worked with, data scientist at my previous company. Not exactly a thick person otherwise. Another is a guy from my university, he always got easily excited about different things. He was going to be a billionaire one day because he purchased DasCoin. He believes every single conspiracy theory out there without exception. Others have been people I knew briefly, mostly through other people.
 
Sarni said:
Poland as well and Eastern countries in general I think. I’ve known several flat earthers here. All thought I was a complete moron for believing NASA. Apparently being a flat earther proves you have your own brain and can think independently.
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Yep, remember you mentioning that your brother is anti-vaxer too.

It could be a problem of the education system (like @Hound Dog mentioned), that people are taught more to memorize rather than develop critical thinking. And then with people who are not very educated (or are wrongly educated *), add social media there, and no surprise to see the number of people who believe in conspirative theories.

* I mean, I had to memorize entire poetry when I was in the school. The most annoying thing ever and absolutely despised that. While at the same time, the biology teacher skipped the part on sexual organs cause he was uncomfortable speaking about that. He did the evolution part, at least. I guess in Serbia and Poland the education system should be quite better than in Kosovo, but the basis is probably the same (as in most ex-communist countries). Obedience and memorization instead of critical thinking.
 
Generational divide
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One approach that has been discussed by policymakers, and proposed by researchers such as those at Warwick University, involves a youth-first policy allowing for younger worker in their 20s and 30s who no longer live with their parents to return to work first.
While younger groups are not impervious to Covid-19, they are regarded as the most resilient. Such an approach has led some to joke there could even be a maximum drinking age in the bars that might open at the same time.
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@Grinner

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...distancing-mean-for-uk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
 
Australia is inching close to elimination with only a handful of new cases yesterday depite testing being ramped up even further.

The NRL is due to start again behind closed doors in a months time. Schools never closed, but most kids stayed home unless their parents were essential workers, and are now planning a phased return to the classroom. Most shops didn't close but pubs and restaurants will remain closed or take away only for some time. And until the rest of the world gets to a much better place our borders are going to have to remain locked down. Inter-state restrictions may be able to be lifted sooner though.
 
Madthinker said:
I reckon that's bunk.

Fag-packet calculation of population future life expectancy for Italy death profile:

Age/deaths/future life
0-9/2/77.8
10-19/0/68.4
20-29/7/58.6
30-39/47/48.8
40-49/197/39.2
50-59/842/29.9
60-69/2515/21.2
70-79/6747/13.5
80-89/9171/7.3
90+/3056/3

Weighted average is c11 years. It's implausible that the future life expectancy of a Covid-19 victim isn't a lot lower.

Edit - reading further, it seems they calculate the normal age/gender-adjusted future life as 14 for men, but 13 taking into account underlying health conditions with the same penetration rate as the victims. The future life expectancy will be lower for the set of people that have underlying health conditions to the extent that getting covid-19 would prove fatal.
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Yeah good point. Even if they've correctly modelled the specific average of each long-term condition (LTC), there's still a distribution to the severity of each specific LTC. It is logical that COVID-19 deaths are sampling from the tail of these distributions. I'm not sure it's even possible to control for that, broadly-speaking.
 
Madthinker said:
I reckon that's bunk.

Fag-packet calculation of population future life expectancy for Italy death profile:

Age/deaths/future life
0-9/2/77.8
10-19/0/68.4
20-29/7/58.6
30-39/47/48.8
40-49/197/39.2
50-59/842/29.9
60-69/2515/21.2
70-79/6747/13.5
80-89/9171/7.3
90+/3056/3

Weighted average is c11 years. It's implausible that the future life expectancy of a Covid-19 victim isn't a lot lower.

Edit - reading further, it seems they calculate the normal age/gender-adjusted future life as 14 for men, but 13 taking into account underlying health conditions with the same penetration rate as the victims. The future life expectancy will be lower for the set of people that have underlying health conditions to the extent that getting covid-19 would prove fatal.
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Any way you calculate it the vague notion that "Oh well most of them would have died very soon anyway" is rubbish. We are trying calculate how many years are lost, not how many days or weeks, as seems to be the mindset of those who think the old aren't giving up much by taking one for the team (or whatever the mindset is).
 
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