That's the lockdown doing it's thing, certainly taken the load off the NHS which was the plan. It's about managing these numbers now once we open the country up again.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Cheers, makes sense.
I can read but you're not explaining it very well. If you didn't mention that you had an other half who worked in the NHS and that I think you might have some inside info, I wouldn't give you the time of day.
I get that you're telling me there is capacity in the hospitals and there is no need to use the Nightingale as it is only a field hospital with no expertise and equipment. I GET THAT.
My question is, if there is excess capacity and our health system isn't being overwhelmed, why are there 900+ people a day still dying? The main reason for a high death count in other countries is due to the health system being overwhelmed so ours must be a different reason.
I'm a doctor (but not the medical kind unfortunately) so please do not speak to me like I am stupid.
Cant win government under prepare and people moan, government over prepare and people moan aswell.
The nightingale clinical admission, certainly the London one, is to receive lower risk Covid patients. It would suggest it would be those stronger patients, or those exiting the worst part of the virus on the lungs. The HSJ has some good articles which covers this and gives insight into how the London hospitals are improving capacity, certainly in ICU.
The time to death definitely slows down over time, that's happened everywhere. Whether it's the virus getting weaker or just the weaker people are picked off early i don't know.
A friend of mine in the UK said they see that people have about 3 days to show signs of improvement after hospital admission to have a good prognosis.
People are dieing because this is a dangerous virus and lots of people are getting it. It is not as a result of a lack of hospital capacity. Could be a mixture of population density, levels of pollution and general lack of health in the UK population. I dread to think what the number of deaths might have been had we not implemented the lockdown which would have most likely overwhelmed the NHS completely.
feck, that close up of Laura K was terrifying.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, the health of people in the UK is pretty shocking as is our obesity rates. That has a massive contribution. Others have said alot of other countries are worse than us in the regard so I could be wrong.
Also, don't think we beat Italy with our old age, but we do have a hell of a lot of old people. Not sure how we compare to other countries in that respect though.
You're still going to get death's with this disease, no matter what. There is no vaccine for it, so you're left at the strength of the patient and to have no previous or existing health issues to make a recovery from it. That's not to say everyone that gets it, and has health issues, doesn't recover. It's well known that the older demographic have weaker immune systems and are more susceptible for it. Literally the only thing the healthcare system can manage is patients oxygen levels, and using appropriate ventilation techniques (using a variety of machines) to give patients enough oxygen in their lungs to assist their recovery.
The other element is that we're still getting deaths from 3-4 weeks ago of people who may have not followed guidance on social distancing. We're seeing now, tragically, of healthcare professionals on the frontline dying as they become exposed to it (I'll save the governments shocking response on PPE for another day). So in short, we'll still see deaths. From getting the virus, to death can take as much as 3-4 weeks. So we're still going to see some deaths for more weeks, and certainly in the future as the government wants to open up the country. Obvious social distancing will be the major mitigation to manage the peaks until a virus is found.
I treat everyone equal and only based on their output, can't say fairer than that.
Probably due to there being no known cure for covid-19.
The ventilators don't cure patients, they just keep them going to buy time in the hope the patients body can fight off the disease.
I didn't want to say it, but there is visual correlation of obesity and deaths from this virus. My own personal belief is that it has a huge contribution, but hopefully scientists will explore that angle further in the coming months.
I believe it maybe social distancing, we are learning how to manage acute care, virulence of virus changing its characteristics maybe, weather- as higher temperatures outside maybe increasing cross ventilation....multifactorial... we will know when we analyse our studies...
Interesting, keep us posted on his updates.
But you would have other weaker people coming in for them?
Worrying thing is most of us who are at home now are probably living a less healthy life style now.
This is where you are getting it wrong.
Health systems have not been totally overwhelmed anywhere yet, with the exception of a few towns here and there in particular hotspots. High death rates are down to factors like demographics and cultural traits.
True but the number of weaker patients would still decline over time. For every new patient that's one less in the population that can be exposed to it.
Last 5 days seem quite far off from the numbers I'm seeing on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Italy reporting it's second consecutive day of <3,000 new cases for the first time since early March, and another day of active case reduction. The PM is outlining measures for a gradual reduction of measures by the end of this week, to begin on May 4.
Nice
Absolute fecking tools, the lot of them. We’ve seen similar gobshites in MAGA hats over the pond. Is there a UK equivalent?
Maybe that graph factors more the ones who die pretty much solely because of Covid instead of one's that either had loads of health issues that put them on borrowed time anyway or died for something else and happened to have mild Covid?
Any countries still yet to see a flattening of the curve?
I will. Yes he seemed very upbeat and happy today. Last week he was despondent and sad. He is also involved in a clinical trial of a prospective cure. That would take at least a month for any news.
Yeah I know there are many underlying factors including: lack of vaccine, obesity, diabetes and hypertension. And there will always be that small percentage who will pass on even with the best healthcare.
But it's just the idea that no matter how we organise our healthcare capacity, we will get a minimum of 900-1000 deaths a day at peak, and there's nothing we can do about it...it really rubs me the wrong way idealistically.
And @F-Red, I would totally agree with you on the shocking response on PPE. Unbelievable.
London is a hotspot for us though and we don't seem to need the Nightingale even at (close to) peak, which really boggles my mind. I still really can't decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing.
It's easy for me to say 'Definitely a good thing! We have less people who really need the hospital than we initially thought!" but is that really true looking at that death count?
Worldometer's figures depend on deaths by day of reporting. Dan's figures take those same deaths but properly distribute them by the actual day of death - which is a more informative statistic. Dan's graph also appears to only incorporate the figures for England, rather than the UK as a whole.
You can easily discount the last few days of these graphs because it typically takes between 2 - 7 days to reach a satisfactorily accurate figure. We'll know much more about Monday this week by Monday next.
Will be interested to see what their 1 year reunion photo looks like.
Ah thanks for the explanation
Regarding unreported covid-19 deaths and excess deaths in various countries, here's an article with those numbers, they think approx. 28,000 more deaths can be added to the tally just by these nations included in the article.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
I also saw that during the period of 21.march-11.april there was approx 8000 more deaths in Ecuador also, so propably more countries have not been able to report due to testing issues or have not included home/nursing home deaths.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
I also saw that during the period of 21.march-11.april there was approx 8000 more deaths in Ecuador also, so propably more countries have not been able to report due to testing issues or have not included home/nursing home deaths.
Hi there are many issues regarding Nightingale not having many patients. They do not offer all of what an ITU does and therefore have very specific admission criteria and strict exclusionary ones too.
Frail patients with extensive comorbidities often require input from different teams, imaging modalities, dialysis machines and would not be suitable for transfer. Most likely the patients most suitable are those ventilated who are "stable" (maybe those who need a bit a time to wean off) but not with complex other issues. COVID19 causes massive inflammation, coagulation defects, secondary infections & multi-organ failure. You need ITU beds for such patients and patients who are stable could potentially be transferred to Nightingale to free up space.
The reason a lot of people would still die despite "capacity" is because we know that intubation is something that frail patients would not do well on. On the new respect forms or Treatment Escalation Plans (TEPs) we discuss resuscitation but also ceiling of intervention. Decisions to palliate are made in line with wishes from patients and family which is as much a medical decision as much as line with the advanced care planning we discuss with them.
Thesis on the role of Prevotella and Covid19
Source: RAW PERFORMANCE on facebook
This study is a preprint and therefore needs to be confirmed even further through peer reviews, but I think it's worth bringing this attention. At least we learn something from it, and at least it does confirm that there is much more going on than just having bad luck and getting sick. It is clear that the stomach and intestinal flora are integral part of the functioning of our immune system. Think of the stomach as the place where bacteria and immune system meet. How that meeting goes is clearly crucial. " There are no second chances to make a first impression."
From the preliminary conclusion of the study, we can note that the Prevotella (one of the large types of bacteria that populate our stomach and intestinal flora) play a crucial role in the development of the coronavirus. The bacteria would be a carrier for the virus in this situation.
Some background information: the prevotella bacteria are responsible, among other things, for the digestion of carbohydrates, especially starch and sugar. Furthermore, we also find the species in the respiratory system, both in the lungs and upper respiratory tract.
Prevotella are also strong indicative of inflammation in the stomach and the rest of the body, both positive and negative. This once again points to their role as a facilitator or carrier. The problem with bacteria is especially that in fact we still know too little / nothing about it. After all, it is only the last decades that these are finally coming to attention and that research can be carried out.
With that in mind, no one can say for sure what exactly is, but in the current malaise, a connection does not seem far-fetched. Especially if we link the information of this preprint to other preprints (link) and ongoing studies that indicate overweight as a prominent risk factor for hospitalization due to the coronavirus (link), a clear pattern will be visible.
After all, there are several "causes" that seem to have a common basis. It would not be the disorders or overweight in itself, because the most logical explanation is to look for the common factors that cause this.
And there is: with the exception of congenital conditions, many disorders have their cause in people's lifestyle. Our lifestyle has a strong impact on the stomach and intestinal flora as well as on the immune system. Given the complexity, there is still a lot to be done, but it would explain why a lot of apparently healthy people get seriously ill anyway.
Anyway, what we already know in the meantime is that a good balance is needed in the stomach and intestinal flora. Several colonies must work together in a way. Even though it is rather a kind of struggle between the colonies, which is usually won by the species that is-in this case, literally-the most fed.
The statement is now that the Prevotella species has become too dominant compared to the balance that is naturally present for the people of Western European origin, causing serious health risks due to our lifestyle.
In combination with what we know about the role of sugar and less qualitative carbohydrates as cause of inflammation, it seems appropriate to pay attention to exaggerated carbohydrates and sugars, especially during this period where temptation can be particularly great because of boredom, frustrations and the general lack of movement.
Another striking trend in research towards solutions points towards (a shortage) of vitamin D. This is also fiercely related to our lifestyle.
So get out, move, socialize, soak up some sunshine, eat healthy food, skip the sugar and stimulants and avoid (social) media induced stress and anxiety.
Prevotella as a carrier:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339008515_The_2019_Wuhan_outbreak_is_caused_by_the_bacteria_Prevotella_which_is_aided_by_the_coronavirus_possibly_to_adhere_to_epithelial_cells_-_Prevotella_is_present_in_huge_amounts_in_patients_from_both_Chin
Prevotella info:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevotella
Stomach and intestinal system as a potential contamination route:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927806v1
Overweight:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32271993
& https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article&fbclid=IwAR1llKM06RHqnEXElwNn-5GO-reKVUIiwFR8aP2akJea6RzUHgT6Q30HjEg
Vitamin D:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5865875/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ar...9fno6guQjzGMu0MAGbc4lXRlU2LGn-mmMS-u4P5C8mp-A
This study is a preprint and therefore needs to be confirmed even further through peer reviews, but I think it's worth bringing this attention. At least we learn something from it, and at least it does confirm that there is much more going on than just having bad luck and getting sick. It is clear that the stomach and intestinal flora are integral part of the functioning of our immune system. Think of the stomach as the place where bacteria and immune system meet. How that meeting goes is clearly crucial. " There are no second chances to make a first impression."
From the preliminary conclusion of the study, we can note that the Prevotella (one of the large types of bacteria that populate our stomach and intestinal flora) play a crucial role in the development of the coronavirus. The bacteria would be a carrier for the virus in this situation.
Some background information: the prevotella bacteria are responsible, among other things, for the digestion of carbohydrates, especially starch and sugar. Furthermore, we also find the species in the respiratory system, both in the lungs and upper respiratory tract.
Prevotella are also strong indicative of inflammation in the stomach and the rest of the body, both positive and negative. This once again points to their role as a facilitator or carrier. The problem with bacteria is especially that in fact we still know too little / nothing about it. After all, it is only the last decades that these are finally coming to attention and that research can be carried out.
With that in mind, no one can say for sure what exactly is, but in the current malaise, a connection does not seem far-fetched. Especially if we link the information of this preprint to other preprints (link) and ongoing studies that indicate overweight as a prominent risk factor for hospitalization due to the coronavirus (link), a clear pattern will be visible.
After all, there are several "causes" that seem to have a common basis. It would not be the disorders or overweight in itself, because the most logical explanation is to look for the common factors that cause this.
And there is: with the exception of congenital conditions, many disorders have their cause in people's lifestyle. Our lifestyle has a strong impact on the stomach and intestinal flora as well as on the immune system. Given the complexity, there is still a lot to be done, but it would explain why a lot of apparently healthy people get seriously ill anyway.
Anyway, what we already know in the meantime is that a good balance is needed in the stomach and intestinal flora. Several colonies must work together in a way. Even though it is rather a kind of struggle between the colonies, which is usually won by the species that is-in this case, literally-the most fed.
The statement is now that the Prevotella species has become too dominant compared to the balance that is naturally present for the people of Western European origin, causing serious health risks due to our lifestyle.
In combination with what we know about the role of sugar and less qualitative carbohydrates as cause of inflammation, it seems appropriate to pay attention to exaggerated carbohydrates and sugars, especially during this period where temptation can be particularly great because of boredom, frustrations and the general lack of movement.
Another striking trend in research towards solutions points towards (a shortage) of vitamin D. This is also fiercely related to our lifestyle.
So get out, move, socialize, soak up some sunshine, eat healthy food, skip the sugar and stimulants and avoid (social) media induced stress and anxiety.
Prevotella as a carrier:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339008515_The_2019_Wuhan_outbreak_is_caused_by_the_bacteria_Prevotella_which_is_aided_by_the_coronavirus_possibly_to_adhere_to_epithelial_cells_-_Prevotella_is_present_in_huge_amounts_in_patients_from_both_Chin
Prevotella info:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevotella
Stomach and intestinal system as a potential contamination route:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927806v1
Overweight:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32271993
& https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article&fbclid=IwAR1llKM06RHqnEXElwNn-5GO-reKVUIiwFR8aP2akJea6RzUHgT6Q30HjEg
Vitamin D:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5865875/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ar...9fno6guQjzGMu0MAGbc4lXRlU2LGn-mmMS-u4P5C8mp-A
Ahem.. ChinaItalian PM has just announced distancing and masks will be compulsory until a vaccine or a treatment is found. I hope he has a plan for where all these masks will come from.
Probably missing something, but are we not still reporting 800s every day? Not down to 200s?!
Christ. Liberate us from their stupidity. Just saw a comment about throwing in a 5g phone and watching them scatter
Is that Sinead O’Connor’s ex in the middle?
It is a graph based on the day the death occured, rather than the day the death was reported.
Not a brain cell between the lot of them, I wish we could be liberated from the idiocy of these people