SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Withnail · Apr 18, 2020

unchanged_lineup said:
My work officially told us WFH til the middle of May, so I'll be waiting til at least then even if the country opens up a bit.

It's great news.

I was getting a bit worried the daily deaths were continuing to rise even though they were telling us that the transmission rate was <=1.

Glad he's released the graph comparing the figures based on the actual date the deaths occured (red bar) to those we've seen to date (line) which were based on when they were notified of them.

It's gives a totally different picture.

Darkhorsez · Apr 18, 2020

Cardboard elk said:
Horrible news from canada. All but two caregivers left the nursing home for 130 elders, while the relatives were told to avoid visits due to Covid-19. Several dead and people left for themselves in excrements and without food for days.. How is this possible. I hope there will be severe punishment for those responsible.

https://www.barrons.com/news/horrors-revealed-at-virus-hit-canada-nursing-home-01587174605

Yeah it’s very disturbing and disgusting. whilst I am happy with government and provincial response to covid, this is one aspect that they got badly wrong. Very slow to investigate and take appropriate actions. It’s a horrible situation for the people effected and their families. So sad the pain this goddam virus has inflected in a relatively short period. Hopefully there will be lessons learned.

redshaw · Apr 18, 2020

Ekkie Thump said:
Large increase in UK testing today (think it's the first time past 20k tests and 15k people). 5,526 positives (similar to yesterday but from more tests), 888 deaths.

Yesterday was just shy of 14k people tested out of 21.3k so not a big increase.

Not good numbers again for the end of the 4th week of lockdown.

Ekkie Thump · Apr 18, 2020

Ekkie Thump said:
Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Deaths in England remained flat today with 738 being reported (-2). This again lends weak support to the idea that we might've seen peak deaths on 8th April. More concerning is the sudden surge in new cases to 5,600 (+1k from yesterday). This is the highest single day total since April 5th. I wonder if Easter shenanigans might've had something to do with it.

Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes):

Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Reported deaths grew by 46 to 784. Certainly seems like we've at least reached a plateau.

Orange is a 5 day trailing average, hopefully it remains above the daily death line.
Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:

FireballXL5 · Apr 18, 2020

Pogue Mahone said:
I’m afraid this thread is really going to boil your piss...

I'd call it wilful criminal negligence.

Ekkie Thump · Apr 18, 2020

redshaw said:
Yesterday was just shy of 14k people tested out of 21.3k so not a big increase.

Not good numbers again for the end of the 4th week of lockdown.

Yeah - I realised my mistake and went back and edited.

redshaw · Apr 18, 2020

United Kingdom Dates	UK Deaths	Italy Dates	Italy Deaths
Mar 8th	3	Feb-23rd	3
Mar 9th	5	Feb 24th	7
Mar 10th	6	Feb 25th	11
Mar 11th	8	Feb 26th	12
Mar 12th	10	Feb 27th	17
Mar 13th	11	Feb 28th	21
Mar 14th	21	Feb 29th	29
Mar 15th	35	Mar 1st	41
Mar 16th	55	Mar 2nd	52
Mar 17th	71	Mar 3rd	79
Mar 18th	104	Mar 4th	107
Mar 19th	144	Mar 5th	148
Mar 20th	177	Mar 6th	197
Mar 21st	233	Mar 7th	233
Mar 22nd	281	Mar 8th	366
Mar 23rd	335	Mar 9th	463
Mar 24th	422	Mar 10th	631
Mar 25th	468	Mar 11th	827
Mar 26th	578	Mar 12th	1,016
Mar 27th	759	Mar 13th	1,266
Mar 28th	1,019	Mar 14th	1,441
Mar 29th	1,228	Mar 15th	1,809
Mar 30th	1,408	Mar 16th	2,158
Mar 31st	1,789	Mar 17th	2,503
Apr 1st	2,352	Mar 18th	2,978
Apr 2nd	2,921	Mar 19th	3,405
Apr 3rd	3,605	Mar 20th	4,032
Apr 4th	4,313	Mar 21st	4,825
Apr 5th	4,934	Mar 22nd	5,475
Apr 6th	5,373	Mar 23rd	6,077
Apr 7th	6,159	Mar 24th	6,820
Apr 8th	7,097	Mar 25th	7,503
Apr 9th	7,978	Mar 26th	8,215
Apr 10th	8,958	Mar 27th	9,134
Apr 11th	9,875	Mar 28th	10,023
Apr 12th	10,612	Mar 29th	10,779
Apr 13th	11,329	Mar 30th	11,591
Apr 14th	12,107	Mar 31st	12,428
Apr 15th	12,868	Apr 1st	13,155
Apr 16th	13,729	Apr 2nd	13,915
Apr 17th	14,576	Apr 3rd	14,681
Apr 18th	15,464	Apr 4th	15,362
Apr 19th		Apr 5th	15,887
Apr 20th		Apr 6th	16,523
Apr 21st		Apr 7th	17,127
		Apr 8th	17,669
		Apr 9th	18,279

Officially unofficially broke past Italy without much fuss and a two week heads up.

Ramshock · Apr 18, 2020

redshaw said:
United Kingdom
Dates
UK
Deaths
Italy Dates
Italy Deaths
Mar 8th
3
Feb-23rd
3
Mar 9th
5
Feb 24th
7
Mar 10th
6
Feb 25th
11
Mar 11th
8
Feb 26th
12
Mar 12th
10
Feb 27th
17
Mar 13th
11
Feb 28th
21
Mar 14th
21
Feb 29th
29
Mar 15th
35
Mar 1st
41
Mar 16th
55
Mar 2nd
52
Mar 17th
71
Mar 3rd
79
Mar 18th
104
Mar 4th
107
Mar 19th
144
Mar 5th
148
Mar 20th
177
Mar 6th
197
Mar 21st
233
Mar 7th
233
Mar 22nd
281
Mar 8th
366
Mar 23rd
335
Mar 9th
463
Mar 24th
422
Mar 10th
631
Mar 25th
468
Mar 11th
827
Mar 26th
578
Mar 12th
1,016
Mar 27th
759
Mar 13th
1,266
Mar 28th
1,019
Mar 14th
1,441
Mar 29th
1,228
Mar 15th
1,809
Mar 30th
1,408
Mar 16th
2,158
Mar 31st
1,789
Mar 17th
2,503
Apr 1st
2,352
Mar 18th
2,978
Apr 2nd
2,921
Mar 19th
3,405
Apr 3rd
3,605
Mar 20th
4,032
Apr 4th
4,313
Mar 21st
4,825
Apr 5th
4,934
Mar 22nd
5,475
Apr 6th
5,373
Mar 23rd
6,077
Apr 7th
6,159
Mar 24th
6,820
Apr 8th
7,097
Mar 25th
7,503
Apr 9th
7,978
Mar 26th
8,215
Apr 10th
8,958
Mar 27th
9,134
Apr 11th
9,875
Mar 28th
10,023
Apr 12th
10,612
Mar 29th
10,779
Apr 13th
11,329
Mar 30th
11,591
Apr 14th
12,107
Mar 31st
12,428
Apr 15th
12,868
Apr 1st
13,155
Apr 16th
13,729
Apr 2nd
13,915
Apr 17th
14,576
Apr 3rd
14,681
Apr 18th
15,464
Apr 4th
15,362
Apr 19th

Apr 5th
15,887
Apr 20th

Apr 6th
16,523
Apr 21st

Apr 7th
17,127

Apr 8th
17,669

Apr 9th
18,279

Officially unofficially broke past Italy without much fuss and a two week heads up.

Two worst leaders Trump/Johnson

Shakesy · Apr 18, 2020

redshaw said:
United Kingdom
Dates
UK
Deaths
Italy Dates
Italy Deaths
Mar 8th
3
Feb-23rd
3
Mar 9th
5
Feb 24th
7
Mar 10th
6
Feb 25th
11
Mar 11th
8
Feb 26th
12
Mar 12th
10
Feb 27th
17
Mar 13th
11
Feb 28th
21
Mar 14th
21
Feb 29th
29
Mar 15th
35
Mar 1st
41
Mar 16th
55
Mar 2nd
52
Mar 17th
71
Mar 3rd
79
Mar 18th
104
Mar 4th
107
Mar 19th
144
Mar 5th
148
Mar 20th
177
Mar 6th
197
Mar 21st
233
Mar 7th
233
Mar 22nd
281
Mar 8th
366
Mar 23rd
335
Mar 9th
463
Mar 24th
422
Mar 10th
631
Mar 25th
468
Mar 11th
827
Mar 26th
578
Mar 12th
1,016
Mar 27th
759
Mar 13th
1,266
Mar 28th
1,019
Mar 14th
1,441
Mar 29th
1,228
Mar 15th
1,809
Mar 30th
1,408
Mar 16th
2,158
Mar 31st
1,789
Mar 17th
2,503
Apr 1st
2,352
Mar 18th
2,978
Apr 2nd
2,921
Mar 19th
3,405
Apr 3rd
3,605
Mar 20th
4,032
Apr 4th
4,313
Mar 21st
4,825
Apr 5th
4,934
Mar 22nd
5,475
Apr 6th
5,373
Mar 23rd
6,077
Apr 7th
6,159
Mar 24th
6,820
Apr 8th
7,097
Mar 25th
7,503
Apr 9th
7,978
Mar 26th
8,215
Apr 10th
8,958
Mar 27th
9,134
Apr 11th
9,875
Mar 28th
10,023
Apr 12th
10,612
Mar 29th
10,779
Apr 13th
11,329
Mar 30th
11,591
Apr 14th
12,107
Mar 31st
12,428
Apr 15th
12,868
Apr 1st
13,155
Apr 16th
13,729
Apr 2nd
13,915
Apr 17th
14,576
Apr 3rd
14,681
Apr 18th
15,464
Apr 4th
15,362
Apr 19th

Apr 5th
15,887
Apr 20th

Apr 6th
16,523
Apr 21st

Apr 7th
17,127

Apr 8th
17,669

Apr 9th
18,279

Officially unofficially broke past Italy without much fuss and a two week heads up.

Wow. Came from behind there.

Shakesy · Apr 18, 2020

Ramshock said:
Two worst leaders Trump/Johnson

And that Belarusian leader.

Ramshock · Apr 18, 2020

Shakesey said:
And that Belarusian leader.

Brazilian fella too

redshaw · Apr 18, 2020

From BBC

Fears 7,500 residents have died in UK care homes

"The number of coronavirus victims in Britain's care homes could be as high as 7,500, five times more than the official estimate, the sector's main charity has warned.

"Without testing, it is very difficult to give an absolute figure," Martin Green, chief executive of Care England, told The Daily Telegraph.

"However, if we look at some of the death rates since April 1 and compare them with previous years' rates, we estimate a figure of about 7,500 people may have died as a result of Covid-19."

The figure is more than five times higher than the estimate of 1,400 suggested by the government earlier this week.

Britain's official coronavirus toll currently stands at 14,576, although that only includes deaths recorded in hospitals.£

Looks like the tentative theory of most care home people ending up in the hospital rather than dying at the care home with low figures even up until late March is out the window with the increase in April. France have 7200 care home deaths so far and Barcelona I read recently have 3500 care home deaths to release.

Simbo · Apr 18, 2020

redshaw said:
United Kingdom
Dates
UK
Deaths
Italy Dates
Italy Deaths
Mar 8th
3
Feb-23rd
3
Mar 9th
5
Feb 24th
7
Mar 10th
6
Feb 25th
11
Mar 11th
8
Feb 26th
12
Mar 12th
10
Feb 27th
17
Mar 13th
11
Feb 28th
21
Mar 14th
21
Feb 29th
29
Mar 15th
35
Mar 1st
41
Mar 16th
55
Mar 2nd
52
Mar 17th
71
Mar 3rd
79
Mar 18th
104
Mar 4th
107
Mar 19th
144
Mar 5th
148
Mar 20th
177
Mar 6th
197
Mar 21st
233
Mar 7th
233
Mar 22nd
281
Mar 8th
366
Mar 23rd
335
Mar 9th
463
Mar 24th
422
Mar 10th
631
Mar 25th
468
Mar 11th
827
Mar 26th
578
Mar 12th
1,016
Mar 27th
759
Mar 13th
1,266
Mar 28th
1,019
Mar 14th
1,441
Mar 29th
1,228
Mar 15th
1,809
Mar 30th
1,408
Mar 16th
2,158
Mar 31st
1,789
Mar 17th
2,503
Apr 1st
2,352
Mar 18th
2,978
Apr 2nd
2,921
Mar 19th
3,405
Apr 3rd
3,605
Mar 20th
4,032
Apr 4th
4,313
Mar 21st
4,825
Apr 5th
4,934
Mar 22nd
5,475
Apr 6th
5,373
Mar 23rd
6,077
Apr 7th
6,159
Mar 24th
6,820
Apr 8th
7,097
Mar 25th
7,503
Apr 9th
7,978
Mar 26th
8,215
Apr 10th
8,958
Mar 27th
9,134
Apr 11th
9,875
Mar 28th
10,023
Apr 12th
10,612
Mar 29th
10,779
Apr 13th
11,329
Mar 30th
11,591
Apr 14th
12,107
Mar 31st
12,428
Apr 15th
12,868
Apr 1st
13,155
Apr 16th
13,729
Apr 2nd
13,915
Apr 17th
14,576
Apr 3rd
14,681
Apr 18th
15,464
Apr 4th
15,362
Apr 19th

Apr 5th
15,887
Apr 20th

Apr 6th
16,523
Apr 21st

Apr 7th
17,127

Apr 8th
17,669

Apr 9th
18,279

Officially unofficially broke past Italy without much fuss and a two week heads up.

Are we reporting by the same rule-set Italy are?

Ludens the Red · Apr 18, 2020

11101 said:
All of that can be said of almost all other countries though. I live between Italy and Switzerland currently, pretty much all of what you say above is true here. France can't get tests sorted out, Spain we know is in a mess, even Japan is now running into trouble, and the less said about the US the better. You are talking about some of the most developed nations in the world there. The way people talk in this thread you would think the UK is a total disaster and the virus is just a blip to everybody else. The reality is the UK is handling it about as well as everybody else - the virus took the whole world by surprise.

None of that is because of the budget though, it's because the management keep wasting the money they do get on overpriced agency nurses, ridiculous procurement processes and ill-advised projects. That's been the point all along. The money is there but we are terrible at spending it.

Compared to all of our peer countries the government spends roughly similar, that's really not debatable (especially if you forget private add ons and co pays, which the UK has very little of). We don't stand out for overspending or underspending in any way. Again, like above, the whole point I am making is that if you listened to this thread you'd think the UK was being forced to work on a shoestring, and it's just not true.

Even if we did increase the budget, above 2500 spend per capita (we are around 3,000) there is little evidence that increases have any effect on health outcomes. 2 of the 4 'healthiest' countries spend less than us, and 2 of the 4 top spenders have worse health outcomes than us. If anything, looking at those figures it might suggest a reversal over a certain point as bloat sets in.

edit: anyway, this is all too much politics now. This will be my last post on it.

I know you said this was your last post on it. And I agree the political debate is too much. And I say this NOT as a tribalist labour voter who can’t see the forest for the trees.
But I think with the spending, whilst it looks fine from a comparison stand point you have to factor in a simple point.
Plain and simply put we need a bigger budget because we’re simply worse at being healthy than everyone else in our league.
When you factor in obesity, alcohol and drug abuse (this also accounts for fund drainage) we’re constantly amongst the worse in Europe. We also appear to be worse at spending money than everyone else.
We’re basically the Man United of the Health service world.

dwd · Apr 18, 2020

redshaw said:
From BBC

Fears 7,500 residents have died in UK care homes

"The number of coronavirus victims in Britain's care homes could be as high as 7,500, five times more than the official estimate, the sector's main charity has warned.

"Without testing, it is very difficult to give an absolute figure," Martin Green, chief executive of Care England, told The Daily Telegraph.

"However, if we look at some of the death rates since April 1 and compare them with previous years' rates, we estimate a figure of about 7,500 people may have died as a result of Covid-19."

The figure is more than five times higher than the estimate of 1,400 suggested by the government earlier this week.

Britain's official coronavirus toll currently stands at 14,576, although that only includes deaths recorded in hospitals.£

Looks like the tentative theory of most care home people ending up in the hospital rather than dying at the care home with low figures even up until late March is out the window with the increase in April. France have 7200 care home deaths so far and Barcelona I read recently have 3500 care home deaths to release.

The care home of my father in law have told us that if any resident gets it they won't be taken to hospital as the hospital will just send them straight back. I think this is the case for all care homes across the country as well.

golden_blunder · Apr 18, 2020

Cardboard elk said:
Horrible news from canada. All but two caregivers left the nursing home for 130 elders, while the relatives were told to avoid visits due to Covid-19. Several dead and people left for themselves in excrements and without food for days.. How is this possible. I hope there will be severe punishment for those responsible.

https://www.barrons.com/news/horrors-revealed-at-virus-hit-canada-nursing-home-01587174605

jesus

Ekkie Thump · Apr 18, 2020

redshaw said:
From BBC

Fears 7,500 residents have died in UK care homes

"The number of coronavirus victims in Britain's care homes could be as high as 7,500, five times more than the official estimate, the sector's main charity has warned.

"Without testing, it is very difficult to give an absolute figure," Martin Green, chief executive of Care England, told The Daily Telegraph.

"However, if we look at some of the death rates since April 1 and compare them with previous years' rates, we estimate a figure of about 7,500 people may have died as a result of Covid-19."

The figure is more than five times higher than the estimate of 1,400 suggested by the government earlier this week.

Britain's official coronavirus toll currently stands at 14,576, although that only includes deaths recorded in hospitals.£

Looks like the tentative theory of most care home people ending up in the hospital rather than dying at the care home with low figures even up until late March is out the window with the increase in April. France have 7200 care home deaths so far and Barcelona I read recently have 3500 care home deaths to release.

Yeah, as soon as the ONS reported a year on year increase of 6k deaths for the week ending 3rd April it became clear there's a vast undercount in UK figures. Only 3.5k of those were officially connected to Covid-19. Figures for up to the 10th come out next Tuesday and they'll certainly show the same trend.

Sparky Rhiwabon · Apr 18, 2020

Withnail said:
It's great news.

I was getting a bit worried the daily deaths were continuing to rise even though they were telling us that the transmission rate was <=1.

Glad he's released the graph comparing the figures based on the actual date the deaths occured (red bar) to those we've seen to date (line) which were based on when they were notified of them.

It's gives a totally different picture.

Looks like we're over the peak now.

redshaw · Apr 18, 2020

Ireland could stage England's premier league end and have fans in the stands watching at this rate.

sammsky1 · Apr 18, 2020

Copied from facebook:

All Shopping centres in Hamburg (and around in Germany) will open again from Monday .
There are strict regulations to be followed in each Store and in mall-hallways , so yes it is the same safe as in any other location you have been, last 6 weeks.
Due to strict regulations - some locations in the malls will first open during next week, not on Monday.

Adisa · Apr 18, 2020

dwd said:
The care home of my father in law have told us that if any resident gets it they won't be taken to hospital as the hospital will just send them straight back. I think this is the case for all care homes across the country as well.

Wtf? Why?

antsmithmk · Apr 18, 2020

Ekkie Thump said:
Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Reported deaths grew by 46 to 784. Certainly seems like we've at least reached a plateau.

Orange is a 5 day trailing average, hopefully it remains above the daily death line.
Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:

What is series 1 in this graph?

sammsky1 · Apr 18, 2020

What’s it like to be a grocery store worker right now?

Ekkie Thump · Apr 18, 2020

antsmithmk said:
What is series 1 in this graph?

Number of deaths by day of death (as opposed to day of reporting).

antsmithmk · Apr 18, 2020

Ekkie Thump said:
Number of deaths by day of death (as opposed to day of reporting).

Thank You.

would it be fair to say that because of a delay in reporting some deaths, series 1 could be revised upwards at any point for the last couple of weeks?

Pogue Mahone · Apr 18, 2020

Compton22 said:
You're right about the T-cells, they store memory of the virus when they engulf the virus, its structure and the RNA inside it. Plus, since a large percentage of cases are mild and even asymptomatic, this would mean a reduced production of antibodies, maybe even negligible enough to not show on a test.

Interesting.

Ekkie Thump · Apr 18, 2020

antsmithmk said:
Thank You.

would it be fair to say that because of a delay in reporting some deaths, series 1 could be revised upwards at any point for the last couple of weeks?

Yeah, absolutely. Especially the last 5 - 7 days. The distribution of reported deaths trails off the further back in time you go. Usually the biggest (3 digit) boosts are from 2 - 3 days ago. Then you get mid 2 figure boosts for the next 3-4 days, then it goes into the teens for a couple more, then random single digit bumps.

The big drop off at the end of the graph should be discounted. The way things've been going though it does seem that recent figures will remain below that of the 8th of April and at least in the short term continue to (very slowly) fall going forward.

Edit: @lynchie posted a useful graph for seeing how each day's reported deaths are distributed going back into the past:

Sarni · Apr 18, 2020

Pexbo said:
It's absolutely horrifying what is going on in America right now. With the way they are handling it and the way the right wing media is conditioning the public to think it's some sort of hoax, it's really don't difficult to imagine the mortality rate is going to be into the millions. The worst of it is that the country is so partisan right now that, despite their being clearly one side trying to save lives and the other sacrificing lives to save the economy ("their own wealth" is more apt), the right wing media machine is so fecking powerful that no matter how bad it gets, blame and anger will always be directed in one direction. The worst thing about that is that anger and the appetite for blame is going to be absolutely fierce.

I think the civil unrest caused by the criminal handling of this crisis at federal level and the hatred and blame being dished out could end up costing as many lives as the virus itself.

And even if it goes into millions morons will still say it’s a hoax because ‘those people would have died anyway’ and ‘it’s just another flu’ not to mention the good old ‘do you know anyone who died?’

golden_blunder · Apr 18, 2020

Hey all, good suggestion from a member. Please can you post the name of the country that articles etc are being referred to.

DatIrishFella · Apr 18, 2020

Pexbo said:
It's absolutely horrifying what is going on in America right now. With the way they are handling it and the way the right wing media is conditioning the public to think it's some sort of hoax, it's really don't difficult to imagine the mortality rate is going to be into the millions. The worst of it is that the country is so partisan right now that, despite their being clearly one side trying to save lives and the other sacrificing lives to save the economy ("their own wealth" is more apt), the right wing media machine is so fecking powerful that no matter how bad it gets, blame and anger will always be directed in one direction. The worst thing about that is that anger and the appetite for blame is going to be absolutely fierce.

I think the civil unrest caused by the criminal handling of this crisis at federal level and the hatred and blame being dished out could end up costing as many lives as the virus itself.

America is fecked, no doubts.

I voted Sinn Feinn, Greens, PBP etc in the most recent elections but I can see Leo and his team are doing a fantastic job during this pandemic.

It may not change my voting preference in the future, but hats off to the administration.

The loyalty to dems/gop is awful. Doesnt help when the yanks finally get someone (Bernie) who wants actual change yet they go for Biden.

Dems are just as bad as GOP.

groovyalbert · Apr 18, 2020

redshaw said:
United Kingdom
Dates
UK
Deaths
Italy Dates
Italy Deaths
Mar 8th
3
Feb-23rd
3
Mar 9th
5
Feb 24th
7
Mar 10th
6
Feb 25th
11
Mar 11th
8
Feb 26th
12
Mar 12th
10
Feb 27th
17
Mar 13th
11
Feb 28th
21
Mar 14th
21
Feb 29th
29
Mar 15th
35
Mar 1st
41
Mar 16th
55
Mar 2nd
52
Mar 17th
71
Mar 3rd
79
Mar 18th
104
Mar 4th
107
Mar 19th
144
Mar 5th
148
Mar 20th
177
Mar 6th
197
Mar 21st
233
Mar 7th
233
Mar 22nd
281
Mar 8th
366
Mar 23rd
335
Mar 9th
463
Mar 24th
422
Mar 10th
631
Mar 25th
468
Mar 11th
827
Mar 26th
578
Mar 12th
1,016
Mar 27th
759
Mar 13th
1,266
Mar 28th
1,019
Mar 14th
1,441
Mar 29th
1,228
Mar 15th
1,809
Mar 30th
1,408
Mar 16th
2,158
Mar 31st
1,789
Mar 17th
2,503
Apr 1st
2,352
Mar 18th
2,978
Apr 2nd
2,921
Mar 19th
3,405
Apr 3rd
3,605
Mar 20th
4,032
Apr 4th
4,313
Mar 21st
4,825
Apr 5th
4,934
Mar 22nd
5,475
Apr 6th
5,373
Mar 23rd
6,077
Apr 7th
6,159
Mar 24th
6,820
Apr 8th
7,097
Mar 25th
7,503
Apr 9th
7,978
Mar 26th
8,215
Apr 10th
8,958
Mar 27th
9,134
Apr 11th
9,875
Mar 28th
10,023
Apr 12th
10,612
Mar 29th
10,779
Apr 13th
11,329
Mar 30th
11,591
Apr 14th
12,107
Mar 31st
12,428
Apr 15th
12,868
Apr 1st
13,155
Apr 16th
13,729
Apr 2nd
13,915
Apr 17th
14,576
Apr 3rd
14,681
Apr 18th
15,464
Apr 4th
15,362
Apr 19th

Apr 5th
15,887
Apr 20th

Apr 6th
16,523
Apr 21st

Apr 7th
17,127

Apr 8th
17,669

Apr 9th
18,279

Officially unofficially broke past Italy without much fuss and a two week heads up.

I feel that the UK moved too late in initial areas (London) and too fast to lockdown others meaning that we're now seeing the worst of both scenarios - too late to act in the most populous part of the country, and people feeling the drain of lockdown in other parts of the country at a time when they need to be following it the most.

From the numbers that the UK is posting still after 4 weeks of lockdown, I just don't see enough evidence to point to real success - other than ICU's not being "technically" overrun, in theory, due to new units being opened fast.

In my gut I just don't feel we have the cultural habits or expectations to deal with this effectively. I reckon the government is just waiting for people to get bored of lockdown before softening restrictions rather than expecting any genuine breakthrough/decrease in number of cases/fatalities. They're essentially willing to drops the hearts from a hearts and minds campaign.

dwd · Apr 18, 2020

Adisa said:
Wtf? Why?

Priorities I guess. They’ll be treated at the homes with fluids but no ventilators.

4bars · Apr 18, 2020

Cardboard elk said:
Horrible news from canada. All but two caregivers left the nursing home for 130 elders, while the relatives were told to avoid visits due to Covid-19. Several dead and people left for themselves in excrements and without food for days.. How is this possible. I hope there will be severe punishment for those responsible.

https://www.barrons.com/news/horrors-revealed-at-virus-hit-canada-nursing-home-01587174605

FFS. Sure this is punishable by law?

Cardboard elk · Apr 18, 2020

4bars said:
FFS. Sure this is punishable by law?

Yeah, should think so. Seeing you are from Barcelona, I remember the same somewhere in Spain in late march (?), I remember there was to be an investigation and those responsible was going to be punished. I think the canadians are also investigating the one I posted. Should be a very long sentence imo. Neglect of duty with fatal consequences.

Edit : thinking about this, when shit like this happens in Europe and Canada, what will happen in the poor countries. We will propably not even hear about it in the news from many places around the globe.

Pexbo · Apr 18, 2020

Cardboard elk said:
Horrible news from canada. All but two caregivers left the nursing home for 130 elders, while the relatives were told to avoid visits due to Covid-19. Several dead and people left for themselves in excrements and without food for days.. How is this possible. I hope there will be severe punishment for those responsible.

https://www.barrons.com/news/horrors-revealed-at-virus-hit-canada-nursing-home-01587174605

This happened in Italy too at a number of places didn’t it?

Dr. Dwayne · Apr 18, 2020

4bars said:
FFS. Sure this is punishable by law?

In Canada, as in other like minded affluent countries I'm sure, a person's right to refuse dangerous work as long as they have reasonable cause to believe that it presents a danger to themselves is protected by law, so these personal support workers (PSWs) won't be punished, nor should they be.

This situation is very much the fault of the governments involved and the care home industry. PSWs are low paid and often work at more than one care home, which has contributed to thes spread of the virus in these environments. There''ll be and official "inquiry" but everyone will come out smelling like roses.

stepic · Apr 18, 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

this sounds positive, albeit it isn’t peer reviewed as yet.

Penna · Apr 18, 2020

As sources said a while back, it looks like the UK will end up with the most deaths of any country in Europe.

Pexbo · Apr 18, 2020

Penna said:
As sources said a while back, it looks like the UK will end up with the most deaths of any country in Europe.

By design. The government admitted it early on, there needs to be an inquiry when this is over.

massi83 · Apr 18, 2020

stepic said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

this sounds positive, albeit it isn’t peer reviewed as yet.

Yes, quite positive. There has been plenty of criticism of the study also though. https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-re...in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25

I would wait for the results from Gangelt, Germany, to be published. Almost a whole population study is better, than the biases in a facebook-targeted study group. Also the lower limit of 0.12% isn't really possible, as Lombardy (not to mention Bergamo) and NYC already have more deaths.

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