Many thanks!
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Today I got to suspect that Portuguese health authorities are working under the assumption that it takes a few weeks to go from the first case (usually imported) to intracommunity spread. This indeed seems to be the case in a few of the first countries to get hit. And I now start to understand better the timeline of some actions on part of our government (we had the first confirmed cases two days ago).
However, I have a theory that as the disease spreads throughout the world this time will get shorter and shorter in each new affected country. It just seems obvious. Now I need data to back it up or throw it in the bin. Will sort each country by order of the first case and plot it against days until community spread is acknowledged by local authorities.
However, I have a theory that as the disease spreads throughout the world this time will get shorter and shorter in each new affected country. It just seems obvious. Now I need data to back it up or throw it in the bin. Will sort each country by order of the first case and plot it against days until community spread is acknowledged by local authorities.
True or possibly reinfected I guess?
That said viruses often can come back either due to it mutating, the virus hiding in cells and/or the immune response being far from complete due to the way the immune system has to attack viruses (as opposed to the way it attacks bacteria). So far this doesn't seem to be a big issue but who knows in the future? As we know the flu is good at mutating enough for immunisation to only partially work some of the time.
Out of interest why do you think the period from the first case and intracommunity spread will decrease?
I'm amazed that we have seemingly contained the disease here in Australia with no intracommunity spread so far. Probably just a matter of time of course.
My idea is that as more places become sources of intracommunity spread, more routes of international spread will exist, making the existing measures in place more and more innefective.
I see countries like Spain, France and the UK following a similar pattern. Both started slowly, with a few cases almost always from China and later Northern Italy, and then a recent upsurge in cases and acknowldgement of intracommunity spread.
But now you see a country like Germany, which had their first case much later, but an explosion of cases nearly at the same time as the above three.
Now I look at Portugal's first two patients: One from Italy and one from Valencia. The number of different porential sources increases, perhaps more are appearing at the same time. It seems to make sense that will lead to faster intracommunity spread...
It just seems to me reasonsble to expect Portugal to follow a path that is more akin to Germany rathern than that of the UK and Spain.
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Some sort of critical mass effect could make sense, particularly in Europe where the borders are porous. We may have a different pattern here because we are more in control of our borders but once it is in the wild that won't really help, other than in perhaps slowing the spread to a minor degree.
Cool, thanks for the info. So does handwashing with those aloe type hand wash you get for a pound contain alcohol? Or is it basically just soap? Either way as you say just regular hand washing with soap and being thorough sounds good.
Was talking to my wife about this exact thing last night. Ah, it only wipes out the elderly and immune compromised is such a strange stance.
Can almost see parallels with Nazi ideology - who actively went about killing their "weak". Promoting a lack of action on the basis that it's "only them" who will die, you may as well be killing those people.
My biggest fear is not me catching it, but it's the fact that those around me catch it and suffer very negatively. It's really sad.
Reading the trump nutters on twitter it seems like their biggest priority is ensuring the stock market isnt affected.
Doesnt matter how many people it kills, just as long as the conditions are maintained for Trumps reelection.
Looks like trump is thinking the same with his approach.
Doesnt matter how many people it kills, just as long as the conditions are maintained for Trumps reelection.
Looks like trump is thinking the same with his approach.
The stock markets are important too as every 1% increase on the unemployment rate on an average population of 300m kills around 40 thousand people by other means.
Most of them will change their tune quickly. Young people die too, just a lot less. They may, however, generate proportionatelly more coverage, newsploitation, etc.
It seems like mass shootings are down because of the virus.
They'll be up soon when the hospital execution tables all run out.
Instead of face, try some other more pleasurable spot. In a corona world, I am sure most people will understand it.
Like in all cases, you need to find the source of the 1st tendril before it matures into a web. Where and how the 1st tendril developed is the initial primary objective. Most western countries can do this -- shift resources from terrorism to being medical contact tracers.
In many Asian countries like Singapore or HK, it was direct transmission via Chinese visitors, via the plane. The solution was to ban all incoming flights from China.
Then you track, map and isolate the 1st level contacts. And monitor the 2nd level/secondary contacts requiring them to wear masks and reporting temperature readings a few times a day.
In parallel, rather than go into a denial approach like Trump has, the gov't has to be honest in communicating and educating the local populations on the do's and don't, eliminate the myths/misunderstandings etc. Plus preach self-responsibilities. You dont need to be in a police state to do this.
This will limit the spread and buy the local authorities time. One clinician told me that the part fo the reason for their success -- the ability to provide the best care per patient. Keep the numbers small and then you can offer the best care. In China, patient base has got so big the existing infrastructure was not able to cope. So unlike where I am, where patients all get their individual isolation rooms, in China, they are all thrown into general wards of the capacity of 10-20 per ward. I heard in Iran, they are sharing two patients per bed! So that brings up another whole kettle of fish.
As travel in much easier within the EU, this is a whole new level of complexity. But the track, map and isolate and gov't dissemination of information and education of self-responsibility still in critical and necessary. Otherwise, you will land up like China.
Limiting the spread and information is the key. Or if you are past a tipping point where the healthcare infrastructure is unable to cope, you will get fatality rates like Iran.
I don’t know if brad Pitts character in the big short is a good source of info
Based on real info. It was from that and I read a lot of stuff based on that movie too.
imagine the end of it said "michael barry invests in one commodity now.... hand sanitizer"
Exactly right. All I've heard from Trump supporters around me is : Corona virus is nothing to worry about / but what is the stock market doing? I get the not getting too worried about the virus part (I'm definitely the last to think the world is ending in that regard) but for Christ sake I can totally understand why others are freaking out and worried. It just continously amazes me how infatuated some folks are with this president that all they care about is making sure he gets re elected literally without regard for human life.
So my understanding so far... Italy started exploding on the 21st of February.
By this date almost every big country in Western Europe, and a few smaller ones, had already confirmed at least one case, but almost all were clearly imported and in none were they groing rapidly. England, Germany, France, Spain...
And a few days later, between the 25th, 29th of February we start having an upsurge of cases in lots of other countries, both large (the above) and smaller (Switzerland, Sweden, Norway etc). For some reason this happened a bit earlier and much more intensively in Italy.
Even a few countries that had their first case 8 or less days ago, like Iceland, Netherlands, Denmark are already showing concerning number of cases, 15+ in just very few days.
Portugal, 0 to 6 in two days...
Ireland, 0 to 4 in two days...
Oh well... It's a matter of days, not weeks.
Weaklings, the lot of our leaders. They know there is only one way to slow this, and they know it will have to be done. Yet they are such cowards that they will wait until every citizen realizes that too so they don't have to deal with backlash. More lives will be lost than necessary.
By the end of this, we will be looking to China with different eyes.
By this date almost every big country in Western Europe, and a few smaller ones, had already confirmed at least one case, but almost all were clearly imported and in none were they groing rapidly. England, Germany, France, Spain...
And a few days later, between the 25th, 29th of February we start having an upsurge of cases in lots of other countries, both large (the above) and smaller (Switzerland, Sweden, Norway etc). For some reason this happened a bit earlier and much more intensively in Italy.
Even a few countries that had their first case 8 or less days ago, like Iceland, Netherlands, Denmark are already showing concerning number of cases, 15+ in just very few days.
Portugal, 0 to 6 in two days...
Ireland, 0 to 4 in two days...
Oh well... It's a matter of days, not weeks.
Weaklings, the lot of our leaders. They know there is only one way to slow this, and they know it will have to be done. Yet they are such cowards that they will wait until every citizen realizes that too so they don't have to deal with backlash. More lives will be lost than necessary.
By the end of this, we will be looking to China with different eyes.
It'll sweep through them like the janitor grim reaper in a nursing home considering half of politicians are the wrong side of 60.
I know what you mean. If I get it, fine. I'll sit on my arse for a couple of weeks. But there's a big chance that four kids are also going to get it too and that's what worries me.
Its taken a massive hit with minimal to no repsonse from the entire world.
Kids are fine. There have been cases in Singapore where 2 day old and a 2-month-old infant were confirmed to have the virus. But they have both been discharged. In fact, globally, there has not been any fatality for kids under 9 y.o
Its your nan or parents who you need to worry for in terms of unintentional transmission.
Am still in Phuket. Not a big deal here at all! Really don't understand the Western hysteria over this.
Anyway, there was a rumour swirling around the hotel I'm staying at that UK Government is considering stopping all international flights in and out of UK for an indefinite period, and that Cabinet was meeting today to decide. I've searched on google and cant find any credible sources stating this.
Anyone in UK know if this is true?
Anyway, there was a rumour swirling around the hotel I'm staying at that UK Government is considering stopping all international flights in and out of UK for an indefinite period, and that Cabinet was meeting today to decide. I've searched on google and cant find any credible sources stating this.
Anyone in UK know if this is true?
Think I might have this shite. Flew back from the US last Saturday and since then had a worsening fever, headaches and aching. Now bad coughing has started. 
yeah , the contain period is over with this as they only want to report once a week , no locations
That would be an extraordinary measure but I’ve seen nothing to suggest that is being considered so I’d take it with a pinch of salt.
Again, why is he not taken to task on comments like this? He disputes his own intelligence agency, and now he simply refuses to believe the WHO.
How do so many American's accept this???
It’s literally all he cares about
He should remember that he’s old and not healthy himself
Don’t think it’s just a Western thing. China have locked down and closed off entire cities with double the population of some European countries. Places like South Korea and Japan have introduced extraordinary measures to contain it. And it seems to be completely out of control in Iran with government officials dying and people collapsing in the street, leading all of Iran’s neighbors to close their border.
If anything I’d say attitudes where I am (Ireland) are still too relaxed, people are in denial about what appears to be the inevitable scenario ahead of us.
Child prostitution and slavery isn't a big deal either in Thailand.
Might you be more inclined to help if you, and of course oates, had already had the virus and were probably immune? I know you were a volunteer worker back in England so you have the public spirit in you.
It's a question for all of us really, as if the shit hits big style it's not just qualified medical staff like your good self that will be required, it will be cleaners, porters, drivers, cook's assistants and dogsbodies in general. I don't know what I'd do to be honest. I suspect there tends to be a herd mentality with these things, like going to war, and individuals get swept up in the general will.
Hmmmm so China quarantining entire cities of millions of people, welding their apartment doors shut is just western hysteria?
I know you’ve liked to play devils advocate and go against the grain on these boards, but have a bit of cop on.
There's no confirmation that immunity is gained once you have it though? Even a few cases of getting re-infected, although the finer details aren't quite clear...
I certainly wouldn't want to be responsible for passing over the virus to the vulnerable and getting them killed.
When you get to my age, you come to realise that very little actually changes.
Governments come and go but for the individual, not much happens.
We have just had a change of government. And the worst thing is that they have a large majority, which in my opinion is not good.
In terms of what I would like to see.
Significantly more action to combat the worst of climate change.
Far more emphasis on encouraging people to become much more active and to exercise more.
Labour party to elect a real leader who can fight the nasty party and take Labour back to winning the next election.