Do you have a source (of any language) on this?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
It makes sense now, thanks.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/ny-studie-2-5-av-stockholmarna-bar-pa-viruset
Watch the video of the daily press conference:
”Man bär på viruset i kanske 5 dagar”
”You carry the virus for maybe 5 days”.
The following day they brought the head of the department of microbiology to the press conference to answer the questions about bearing for 5 days (as obviously all of the press had the same questions you guys have now so they wanted an expert to explain to them about “culturable levels etc” and her reply was the one I already posted.
One of my close colleagues had it in early March. Showed all the symptoms, unimaginable chest pain, fever, cough, difficulty breathing. Went to Fairfield to shack up and self-isolate at his sister's house (who's a doctor and could test him for flu and care for him better). Couldn't get a test for 3 weeks. When he eventually got one, it came back negative
One of my close colleagues had it in early March. Showed all the symptoms, unimaginable chest pain, fever, cough, difficulty breathing. Went to Fairfield to shack up and self-isolate at his sister's house (who's a doctor and could test him for flu and care for him better). Couldn't get a test for 3 weeks. When he eventually got one, it came back negative
kin ell.
That’s really why these antibody tests are so vital.
Too much guesswork still everywhere.
Again, I'm not doubting that you are able spread it less as time goes.
However, "...the virus only shows in lab results for around the first 5 days that you are bearing it" does not make sense.
I highly doubt a medical professional would actually make a claim like that.
Aren't we all? I think we are all looking forward to being on the other side of this.
One of my close colleagues had it in early March. Showed all the symptoms, unimaginable chest pain, fever, cough, difficulty breathing. Went to Fairfield to shack up and self-isolate at his sister's house (who's a doctor and could test him for flu and care for him better). Couldn't get a test for 3 weeks. When he eventually got one, it came back negative
Plus there are estimates that up to 30% of tests are providing a false negative partly due to how difficult it is to collect samples.
If the majority of cases are, as suspected, extremely mild, many without any symptoms. And the virus levels in those drop off dramatically after 5 days, why is that hard to believe?
I mean, the head of microbiology confirmed this. Why are you not having it?
Yet Prometheus aint having it. The test is perfect and can pick it up even in tiny doses.
The head of microbiology here knows jack.
I swear he’d say the Earth is flat if I said it was a sphere.
For sure, the data are all over the place. And most of these models guiding policy have assumptions built into them and you have to look closely at those assumptions because a small difference in the front end could lead to a big change on the end of it. My understanding is the assumed hospitalization rate was probably overstated at 20%. Looking at Westchester data, (there was a lot of testing in that part of NY state because of the outbreak in New Rochelle) the hospitalization rate was 5%. That’s a major change going from 20% to 5% in terms of what your ventilator needs are what your ICU bed needs are and what the case fatality ratio is going to be.
I think the phrasing was a bit odd maybe - probably a translation thing. If the virus in mild cases is essentially undetectable after only 5 days (from infection or 1st symptoms?) that is good news.
I think we are getting close to be honest. Obviously, this ain't going to be a one size fits all approach, as there's differences between countries, states and even municipalities and the answer will depend on what’s happening locally (how much transmission do you have, what is the antibody status of your population, what is your hospital capacity, what is your ability to do diagnostic testing) all that can help condition how we get back to "normal" or a "new normal" however you define that.
We can start taking steps, because the costs are measurable, they increase everyday and there going to be consequences that are not captured by the models which are only focused on the coronavirus at the moment.
Nah, more like you made it up.
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/opbBy7/folkhalsomyndigheten-du-smittar-i-ungefar-fem-dagar
The part "And the virus only shows in lab results for around the first 5 days that you are bearing it" is 100% made up by you.
That's why you have been unable to produce a clip or a source quoting the expert saying that.
I think we have a way to go yet. It may be that we can start a gradual roll-back but I can't see things being anywhere near normal for a long time yet. It will probably take a vaccine and a working anti-viral treatment to return to full normality.
See: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/de-forsta-fem-dagarna-ar-virusnivaerna-hoga
You are utterly embarrassing yourself now.
important part:
När ett virus kan sprida sig vidare i till nya celler och orsaka mer infektion hos en person så har man sett att det också går att odla det i laboratoriet, säger Tegmark-Wisell.
“When a virus can spread onwards to new cell and create more infection in a person, so it has been shown that then you can also grow it in a laboratory”
I swear, bringing any kind of positive news or developments into this thread is often scowled upon. I’m convinced a load of you are just desperate to see the World burn. I passed on a couple of findings from studies to Revan and I’ve now had to spend two pages providing sources and finally being told “I made it up”.
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There's nothing wrong with the quote. It makes sense.
However, this does not make sense:
and was clearly made up by you.
So you’re arguing that the the virus does show up in lab results after 5 days in mild cases @Prometheus? If you say her quote makes sense in that it can’t be grown in the lab after 5 days in mild cases, how the feck are you expecting to get a positive test result after 5 days?
Tell me the science in your thinking there fella?
Have you not yet realized that the way to test for this virus is to duplicate the genetic material of the test in the lab?
If after five days you cannot duplicate the genetic material in the lab then obviously you do not find the virus in the lab after five days on a test result.
Or would you just argue against anything I say here?
There are studies that show that the first five days a person has high levels of the virus that can be transmitted onto new people. After five days those levels sink.
When a virus can spread on to new cells and cause more infection in a person that is when you can also grow it in the lab.
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Completely agree with everything you said here. As much as I hate Trump, you can’t call yourself fit for the purpose if you decide to cover up, possibly, the biggest pandemic of our lifetimes. Corrupt to the core these feckers.
You don’t need to be shedding “culturable virus” (i.e. intact, viable viruses) to have a positive PCR test, which identifies RNA fragments from the virus. All the available evidence shows that people who get infected will have a positive test long after the first 5 days. Even in mild cases.
You also need put your pregnant women prevalence in context. They have all been in and out of hospitals, in close proximity to HCWs and other patients. Also likely to have spend more than the average amount of time in GP waiting rooms. So you would expect them to be a hell of a lot more likely to get infected than the general population.
I don’t think we’re going back to normal anytime soon, no doubt about it. Mass gatherings are gone for the foreseeable future... concerts, sporting events, expos, crowded bars gone.
Two people eating out at a restaurant could work, provided social distancing norms are respected.
Taiwan decided China was lying and did something about it. WHO did a very poor job but they seem to just repeat what they've been told, we shouldn't have been looking at them as some oracle on what's going on in China. We should've done the same as Taiwan looking back although personally speaking I've not had to concern myself with any of the outbreaks in 40 years. We could've got ready for the last 20 by shutting down flights and setting up quarantine areas for those coming in and never seen anything. This virus is particularly contagious and becomes lethal, Europe has been like a tinderbox for it. Countries didn't want to impact themselves in the short term and now we have long term problems.
As Asia, Africa and South America expand this will happen more so hopefully we can act properly and have equipment on standby and labs ready to shift, it's a huge first lesson.
As Asia, Africa and South America expand this will happen more so hopefully we can act properly and have equipment on standby and labs ready to shift, it's a huge first lesson.
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I’m only passing on what was said here, not my own personal view as I have no expertise whatsoever as we all know full well.
Is the gold standard for testing not duplicating genetic material in the lab as claimed in SK @Pogue Mahone ? Isn’t that what a PCR is? So you’re saying she has this wrong?
Source for evidence of mild cases testing positive after 5 days?
As for pregnant women, the test finished approx one week after the random 2.5% result so they were expecting a result between 5-10% due to exponential growth so it was in line with that.
I don’t think that would work for restaurants though. Profit margins far too tight to keep operating at 50% of their usual max occupancy.
They will blame paper money for the spread but we should discuss the debt. Since we're all in this together, why don't they just wipe off the dept? Why is no one calling for this? Why, after a Pandemic should the WORLD suffer more? This shows the problem not with cash but with the current monetary system which has to much power over reason. A globsal reset of debt would have a big impact on the landscape but that won't happen. We've seen companies throw away good food that should have went to the poor. It's crazy what's gone on but people don't fight for things that actually matter. It just seems to me people are on some hamster wheel and don't know how to get off. The debt/interest is based on nothing worth anything. When you realize it, then closing borders QUICKLY stops pandemics and we can come up with solutions that serve us rather then work against us. What needs to change is peoples attitudes about the current system, which is unsustainable and leads to idiocy. Who could theoretically wipe out all debt? And why is it not an option? Why are we in handcuffs here, what is the root of the issue?This is the discussion people should be having tbh.
You tried to pass off multiple different statements that have very little to do with it as the source. And now you're trying to say you arrived at the claim by extrapolating from what the medical professional said with your knowledge of biology (which is clearly lacking btw). It's not the first time you posted dubious claims which you then attributed to the Swedish "ministry of health" either.
No.
Google “SARS-CoV2 PCR test” if you want to know how testing works. It doesn’t involve culturing live virus, which is more complex to do and only relevant if you want to know if someone is actively contagious. It’s useful for research on infectivity but not used for trying to find out if someone has been infected or not.
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Ask anyone if they want an extra hour let alone days, weeks or months and I think they'd pretty much say 'hell yes'.
Stupid fecking argument.
I wouldn't call early cancellation 'showing promise', which is what happened to the two biggest experiments so far. Mental health and wellbeing was improved but there was no economic benefit seen and the costs were huge.
UBI will be viable when low income jobs are all automated and vast numbers of the population are forced out of the workforce. Until then, it will only ever be a pipedream.
The Piers interview this morning was a bit interesting.
At first I thought he was being a bit of a bellend not letting the person speak.
But by the end of it, he asked a simple, if a vote came to raise the 1% cap to health workers, would you vote for or against it, and she clearly did not want to answer it, even though it's quite a simple yes or no answer
At first I thought he was being a bit of a bellend not letting the person speak.
But by the end of it, he asked a simple, if a vote came to raise the 1% cap to health workers, would you vote for or against it, and she clearly did not want to answer it, even though it's quite a simple yes or no answer
No I’m following exactly what they said in the press conference to explain why that test result of 2.5% was quite important to them as according to them you are only bearing the virus for positive test purposes for five days. You can watch both of the press conference it in full to understand that it’s not me just making up some BS.
It might well be dubious BS for what it’s worth, I’m not trying to say it’s anything, just passing on their info when Raven was talking about it earlier.
Adapt or die. Adapting could mean higher prices, more delivery / takeouts. Naturally some will die.
So a researcher from Harvard wrote that social distancing may not only last for the rest of the year, but for the whole of 2021 as well. The main problem is the lack of immunity after getting the virus.
I’d call it a potential problem. A huge problem, if true, but nobody knows yet.
There was a research paper from South Korea that looked at 300-400 recovered patients. The young adults in that group produced little to no antibodies, which suggests that immunity is rare for young people. This in return means that it could last until we have a vaccine
I'd say there is a very good chance that social distancing will firmly be in place till next summer at the very least sadly.
Some measure of social distancing in on and off periods until a vaccine is widely available seems to me the take away from the 'study'. Nothing we didn't already surmise in here.
There seems to be a dramatic drop in what qualifies as news worthy 'science' these days.
I don't see that happening. Here there is loose talk about reopening schools with the end of what would have been easter holidays. NRW, the most populated state, seems particularly eager to kick things off again. And this is Germany, I don't think Trump will hesitate for a second if other countries do it.